Jacksonville
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating -7.2 #283
Expected Predictive Rating -7.4 #285
Pace 62.1 #344
Improvement +3.0 #60

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #299 D+ C- C- D+ C
Defense #252 D- B C- D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #167 1.07 #282 -1.5 #239
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #181 0.76 #168 -0.1 #175
Three Pointers 41% #182 0.95 #261 -1.3 #226
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #264 -2.9 #263
Freethrows 0.27 #280 71% #227 0.19 #280
Second Chance 28.7% #235 1.03 #206 0.30 #229
Turnovers 17.2% #233
Total Offense -4.7 #299

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #68 1.29 #328 -5.5 #345
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.76 #182 -0.1 #192
Three Pointers 36% #300 1.18 #351 -0.6 #206
1st FG Attempt 1.14 #344 -6.2 #344
Freethrows 0.35 #314 72% #192 0.25 #306
Second Chance 28.5% #103 0.93 #44 0.27 #56
Turnovers 15.4% #238
Total Defense -2.5 #252

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #187 0.6% #217
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.8% #281 11.5% #348
Possession Length 19.5 #349 17.4 #194
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #318 0.15 #135
Improvement +1.6 #101 +1.3 #99

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.9% 3.9% 2.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 2.7% 5.7% 1.0%
.500 or above in Conference 35.3% 53.4% 24.8%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 4.7% 1.5% 6.5%
First Four2.2% 2.6% 2.0%
First Round1.9% 2.7% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Lipscomb (Home) - 36.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 71 - 12
Quad 411 - 711 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 39 @Miami (FL) L 69 - 86 3% -9  0 - 1 -1 +1 B- D C -1 C F A
 Tue, Nov 11 96 @High Point L 64 - 85 8% -11  0 - 2 -12 -7 F D+ C- -6 B+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 15 353 @VMI W 69 - 67 62% +3  1 - 2 -8 -7 C- B F -2 D- F A+
 Tue, Nov 18 87 @George Mason L 57 - 79 7% -12  1 - 3 -12 -8 D+ C F -6 F A+ A+
 Mon, Nov 24 248 Bethune-Cookman W 69 - 64 41% -2  2 - 3 +0 -0 C+ D C+ +1 C+ A- D-
 Tue, Nov 25 131 Pacific L 53 - 68 20% -7  2 - 4 -13 -11 F F B -5 B- C+ D
 Tue, Dec 2 315 Florida A&M W 85 - 82 OT 69% -0  3 - 4 -9 +4 C- C A+ -13 F B+ B-
 Sat, Dec 6 181 @Florida International L 65 - 88 20% -18  3 - 5 -21 -6 F+ C F -16 F A C
 Sun, Dec 14 30 @Texas A&M L 75 - 112 2% -24  3 - 6 -19 +4 B- C- F -20 F F C
 Wed, Dec 17 315 @Florida A&M L 65 - 72 46% -9  3 - 7 -13 -4 C F D+ -10 F A+ F
 Mon, Dec 22 106 @Florida St. L 63 - 87 10% -18  3 - 8 -17 -2 D F A+ -16 D- C D
 Thu, Jan 1 167 @Lipscomb L 57 - 76 18% -9  3 - 9 0 - 1 -17 -3 C- C F -17 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 175 @Austin Peay L 68 - 71 20% -2  3 - 10 0 - 2 -1 -1 B B F -1 B- A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 8 186 Queens L 51 - 77 41% -15  3 - 11 0 - 3 -31 -24 F C F -8 F A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 10 329 West Georgia W 75 - 43 72% +20  4 - 11 1 - 3 +19 +9 A F A+ +16 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 15 233 @Central Arkansas L 60 - 62 28% +5  4 - 12 1 - 4 -3 -2 F C A+ -2 D A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 328 @North Alabama W 90 - 68 51% +13  5 - 12 2 - 4 +15 +16 B A+ C- -0 C B- D
 Thu, Jan 22 302 Bellarmine L 70 - 77 65% -1  5 - 13 2 - 5 -18 -6 F C- B- -13 F D+ C+
 Sat, Jan 24 258 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 76 OT 54% -3  6 - 13 3 - 5 -3 +3 C+ A- F -6 D D- A-
 Thu, Jan 29 167 Lipscomb L 68 - 72 37%
 Sat, Jan 31 231 Florida Gulf Coast L 71 - 72 50%
 Thu, Feb 5 186 @Queens L 70 - 78 22%
 Sat, Feb 7 329 @West Georgia W 71 - 70 51%
 Thu, Feb 12 330 @Stetson W 70 - 69 51%
 Sat, Feb 14 348 North Florida W 83 - 75 77%
 Thu, Feb 19 231 @Florida Gulf Coast L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 21 175 Austin Peay L 67 - 70 39%
 Thu, Feb 26 330 Stetson W 73 - 67 72%
 Sat, Feb 28 348 @North Florida W 80 - 78 58%
Totals 11 - 18 8 - 10 -7 -5 D+ C- C- -3 D- B C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.1 1.6 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 3.9 2.5 0.4 8.2 4th
5th 0.0 2.4 8.8 6.0 1.2 0.0 18.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 9.4 7.0 0.8 0.0 18.5 6th
7th 0.2 5.9 8.3 1.4 0.0 15.8 7th
8th 0.0 2.2 8.5 2.4 0.1 13.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 5.9 4.0 0.2 10.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.4 4.2 0.6 0.0 7.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 2.7 0.9 4.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.3 12th
Total 0.3 1.7 6.2 13.4 20.3 22.8 18.6 10.8 4.6 1.2 0.1 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 17.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 2.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.1% 4.3% 4.3% 14.0 0.0 0.1
12-6 1.2% 14.9% 14.9% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.0
11-7 4.6% 7.6% 7.6% 15.8 0.1 0.3 4.2
10-8 10.8% 5.6% 5.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6 10.2
9-9 18.6% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.8 17.8
8-10 22.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.5 22.2
7-11 20.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.3 20.0
6-12 13.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 13.3
5-13 6.2% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 6.2
4-14 1.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.7
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 15.9 97.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%