Lipscomb
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.6 #167
Expected Predictive Rating +1.7 #137
Pace 73.3 #65
Improvement +0.2 #173

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #198 C D+ C+ D B
Defense #147 C+ C C+ C+ B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #121 1.14 #190 +1.0 #139
2 Pt. Jumpers 12% #331 0.55 #360 -4.3 #352
Three Pointers 47% #68 1.04 #149 +3.5 #67
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #170 +0.2 #172
Freethrows 0.24 #341 77% #40 0.18 #306
Second Chance 25.8% #307 1.09 #121 0.28 #257
Turnovers 15.6% #123
Total Offense -1.2 #198

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #286 1.15 #168 +2.2 #106
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #96 0.75 #161 -0.8 #247
Three Pointers 42% #146 0.99 #150 -0.1 #180
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #142 +1.2 #142
Freethrows 0.29 #140 71% #134 0.20 #128
Second Chance 31.2% #207 1.05 #190 0.33 #212
Turnovers 17.4% #112
Total Defense +0.6 #147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.4% #35 -1.1% #85
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #205 -1.3% #160
Possession Length 16.4 #88 17.1 #144
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #82 0.16 #150
Improvement +0.5 #156 -0.2 #207

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 26.1% 28.3% 22.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.1 14.5
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.6%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.7%
Conference Champion 39.2% 47.6% 24.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round26.1% 28.3% 22.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Jacksonville (Away) - 63.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 15 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 10 - 4
Quad 33 - 33 - 7
Quad 417 - 420 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 12 @Vanderbilt L 61 - 105 3% -29  0 - 1 -22 -6 F C+ F -13 F A+ F
 Sun, Nov 9 154 @Mercer L 77 - 92 34% -8  0 - 2 -12 +5 C B- B- -17 F F F+
 Tue, Nov 11 203 @UNC Asheville L 64 - 69 47% -4  0 - 3 -5 -3 F C C -2 D- D A
 Wed, Nov 19 75 @Belmont L 68 - 75 15% -7  0 - 4 +4 -8 F B+ F +12 A+ C- A+
 Sat, Nov 22 273 Western Carolina W 83 - 62 80% +12  1 - 4 +12 -1 C C C +12 B+ B- A+
 Wed, Nov 26 163 @Marshall W 90 - 67 37% +17  2 - 4 +26 +9 A+ F D +15 A+ C B
 Sat, Nov 29 245 @Southeast Missouri St. W 88 - 77 54% +4  3 - 4 +9 +5 B+ F F+ +3 B+ A- A-
 Wed, Dec 3 337 Tennessee Tech W 83 - 80 89% +1  4 - 4 -11 -1 C- F C -11 F C- D-
 Sun, Dec 7 298 Alabama A&M W 92 - 58 83% +13  5 - 4 +23 +21 A+ C+ A+ +5 A- B- C+
 Tue, Dec 16 3 @Duke L 73 - 97 1% -5  5 - 5 +2 +2 B F C+ +4 B F A+
 Mon, Dec 29 55 @Cincinnati L 62 - 89 11% -16  5 - 6 -14 -1 C- C+ C+ -12 C- F F+
 Thu, Jan 1 283 Jacksonville W 76 - 57 82% +9  6 - 6 1 - 0 +9 +13 B+ F+ A+ -1 C D+ A+
 Sat, Jan 3 348 North Florida W 82 - 74 91% +2  7 - 6 2 - 0 -7 -5 F D- A -2 C+ B C+
 Thu, Jan 8 330 @Stetson L 83 - 91 74% -11  7 - 7 2 - 1 -15 -1 C+ F D -14 F A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 231 @Florida Gulf Coast W 84 - 77 52% +1  8 - 7 3 - 1 +6 +6 C+ C D- -1 C- B- C-
 Thu, Jan 15 302 Bellarmine W 81 - 71 84% +14  9 - 7 4 - 1 -1 +1 C- B D- -2 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 175 Austin Peay W 82 - 78 64% +2  10 - 7 5 - 1 -0 +4 B- D- A- -4 C- C B+
 Thu, Jan 22 330 Stetson W 79 - 74 OT 88% +5  11 - 7 6 - 1 -8 -11 F+ F B+ +2 C B+ A
 Fri, Jan 23 231 Florida Gulf Coast W 86 - 71 73% +5  12 - 7 7 - 1 +8 +17 A+ A C -7 B F D+
 Thu, Jan 29 283 @Jacksonville W 72 - 68 63%
 Sat, Jan 31 348 @North Florida W 91 - 82 80%
 Thu, Feb 5 175 @Austin Peay L 73 - 75 41%
 Sat, Feb 7 233 Central Arkansas W 78 - 71 73%
 Wed, Feb 11 258 Eastern Kentucky W 82 - 74 76%
 Sat, Feb 14 186 @Queens L 80 - 82 44%
 Wed, Feb 18 302 @Bellarmine W 82 - 77 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 328 North Alabama W 82 - 69 88%
 Wed, Feb 25 329 @West Georgia W 80 - 73 74%
 Sat, Feb 28 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 79 - 77 56%
Totals 19 - 10 14 - 4 -1 -1 C D+ C+ +1 C+ C C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.6 9.8 15.1 9.3 2.2 39.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 3.1 11.0 11.8 3.9 0.2 30.4 2nd
3rd 0.4 3.3 8.5 7.9 2.3 0.1 22.4 3rd
4th 0.1 1.3 3.0 1.7 0.3 6.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 1.2 5th
6th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.5 6.7 13.6 21.8 23.9 19.0 9.6 2.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.2    2.2
16-2 97.4% 9.3    7.9 1.4 0.0
15-3 79.3% 15.1    9.3 5.2 0.7
14-4 40.8% 9.8    3.2 4.9 1.6 0.1
13-5 11.8% 2.6    0.3 1.2 1.0 0.1
12-6 1.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 39.2% 39.2 23.0 12.7 3.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.2% 44.3% 44.3% 12.8 0.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.3
16-2 9.6% 37.4% 37.4% 13.6 0.1 1.3 1.8 0.3 6.0
15-3 19.0% 32.1% 32.1% 14.0 0.0 1.2 3.5 1.5 0.0 12.9
14-4 23.9% 26.8% 26.8% 14.3 0.0 0.5 3.2 2.5 0.1 17.5
13-5 21.8% 22.6% 22.6% 14.6 0.2 1.9 2.7 0.1 16.8
12-6 13.6% 20.2% 20.2% 14.9 0.0 0.6 1.8 0.3 10.8
11-7 6.7% 14.5% 14.5% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.3 5.8
10-8 2.5% 13.0% 13.0% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 2.2
9-9 0.6% 13.9% 13.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5
8-10 0.1% 4.2% 4.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-11 0.0% 0.0
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 26.1% 26.1% 0.0% 14.3 73.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.0% 100.0% 12.8 34.2 56.3 9.0 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.5%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%