Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.0#193
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#171
Pace69.7#182
Improvement-2.1#311

Offense
Total Offense-3.7#263
First Shot-3.2#269
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#210
Layup/Dunks+0.8#140
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.6#314
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#145
Freethrows-2.6#317
Improvement+0.5#132

Defense
Total Defense+1.7#116
First Shot-2.0#243
After Offensive Rebounds+3.8#9
Layups/Dunks-3.4#298
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#114
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.0#262
Freethrows+2.4#54
Improvement-2.6#337
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.2% 15.2% 11.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.7 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 78.3% 83.7% 62.7%
.500 or above in Conference 85.7% 87.5% 80.5%
Conference Champion 17.3% 19.1% 12.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.5% 1.0%
First Four1.0% 0.8% 1.3%
First Round13.7% 14.8% 10.5%
Second Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UMKC (Away) - 74.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 43 - 8
Quad 414 - 517 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 324 @Air Force W 74-54 67%     1 - 0 +13.3 -1.6 +14.5
  Tue, Nov 11 97 @Wyoming L 65-79 17%     1 - 1 -5.9 -9.7 +5.0
  Sat, Nov 15 281 @UNC Greensboro W 69-63 56%     2 - 1 +2.5 -9.5 +11.8
  Tue, Nov 18 60 @Mississippi L 65-72 10%     2 - 2 +5.1 +0.5 +4.5
  Fri, Nov 21 83 @Tulsa L 75-84 13%     2 - 3 +1.1 +6.2 -5.4
  Tue, Nov 25 326 Northern Illinois W 77-59 84%     3 - 3 +5.2 +3.2 +3.4
  Wed, Dec 3 124 @Kent St. L 84-96 23%     3 - 4 -6.1 +7.5 -13.1
  Sun, Dec 7 208 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50-63 43%     3 - 5 -13.1 -20.4 +7.1
  Fri, Dec 12 123 East Tennessee St. W 76-75 42%     4 - 5 +0.9 +3.2 -2.3
  Sun, Dec 21 345 @UMKC W 73-66 74%    
  Thu, Jan 1 344 North Florida W 84-71 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 291 Jacksonville W 72-64 78%    
  Thu, Jan 8 181 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72-76 37%    
  Sat, Jan 10 346 @Stetson W 74-67 74%    
  Thu, Jan 15 257 Eastern Kentucky W 76-70 72%    
  Sat, Jan 17 142 @Lipscomb L 69-75 29%    
  Thu, Jan 22 181 Florida Gulf Coast W 75-73 59%    
  Sat, Jan 24 346 Stetson W 77-64 88%    
  Wed, Jan 28 257 @Eastern Kentucky W 74-73 51%    
  Sat, Jan 31 315 @West Georgia W 73-69 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 142 Lipscomb L 71-72 50%    
  Sat, Feb 7 196 North Alabama W 71-68 62%    
  Wed, Feb 11 191 @Queens L 75-78 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 295 Bellarmine W 77-69 78%    
  Thu, Feb 19 344 @North Florida W 81-74 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 291 @Jacksonville W 69-67 58%    
  Wed, Feb 25 283 Central Arkansas W 74-66 75%    
  Sat, Feb 28 295 @Bellarmine W 74-72 58%    
Projected Record 16 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 2.6 4.9 5.0 3.0 1.0 0.2 17.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.9 6.6 4.4 1.3 0.1 0.0 17.2 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.1 6.9 3.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 16.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.8 6.3 3.3 0.5 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.4 5.4 2.8 0.3 0.0 11.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.4 4.2 2.5 0.3 0.0 8.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 2.8 2.2 0.2 0.0 5.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.7 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.7 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.9 2.2 4.1 6.6 9.7 12.6 14.4 14.9 13.4 10.1 6.3 3.2 1.0 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 95.7% 3.0    2.7 0.3 0.0
15-3 78.9% 5.0    3.5 1.3 0.1 0.0
14-4 48.8% 4.9    2.2 2.2 0.6 0.1
13-5 19.8% 2.6    0.6 1.1 0.8 0.2 0.0
12-6 3.4% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.3% 17.3 10.3 5.1 1.6 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 55.6% 55.6% 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 42.8% 42.8% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
16-2 3.2% 35.5% 35.5% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 2.1
15-3 6.3% 30.4% 30.4% 14.1 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.5 0.0 4.4
14-4 10.1% 24.8% 24.8% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.1 7.6
13-5 13.4% 18.4% 18.4% 14.8 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.3 10.9
12-6 14.9% 14.3% 14.3% 15.1 0.3 1.3 0.5 12.8
11-7 14.4% 11.3% 11.3% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.8 0.7 12.7
10-8 12.6% 8.5% 8.5% 15.7 0.0 0.4 0.7 11.5
9-9 9.7% 4.7% 4.7% 15.8 0.1 0.4 9.2
8-10 6.6% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 6.4
7-11 4.1% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.0
6-12 2.2% 2.3% 2.3% 16.0 0.1 2.2
5-13 0.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15 0.2% 0.2
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 14.2% 14.2% 0.0% 14.7 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.7 5.9 3.0 85.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.8 40.0 44.0 16.0