Austin Peay
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #175
Expected Predictive Rating +1.2 #142
Pace 70.7 #130
Improvement +0.5 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #252 D C C+ D C
Defense #116 D+ B+ B+ B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.03 #317 -2.1 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #167 0.75 #184 +0.0 #173
Three Pointers 40% #199 0.91 #307 -2.6 #272
1st FG Attempt 0.93 #314 -4.7 #314
Freethrows 0.26 #300 69% #284 0.18 #310
Second Chance 29.7% #215 1.13 #74 0.34 #137
Turnovers 15.3% #105
Total Offense -2.8 #252

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #209 1.25 #290 -1.3 #224
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #180 0.78 #231 -0.3 #202
Three Pointers 42% #162 1.04 #232 -0.9 #222
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #266 -2.5 #266
Freethrows 0.29 #141 66% #5 0.19 #69
Second Chance 30.1% #159 0.79 #5 0.24 #20
Turnovers 19.8% #34
Total Defense +1.6 #116

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.0% #196 -0.1% #154
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -9.2% #324 4.9% #270
Possession Length 17.0 #134 16.8 #90
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #102 0.19 #254
Improvement +2.4 #63 -2.0 #297

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.9% 25.9% 21.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.3 14.6
.500 or above 99.4% 99.9% 98.8%
.500 or above in Conference 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
Conference Champion 42.2% 52.7% 29.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round23.8% 25.9% 21.3%
Second Round0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Away) - 54.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 20 - 4
Quad 32 - 42 - 7
Quad 417 - 319 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 347 @Air Force W 74 - 54 77% +10  1 - 0 +11 -2 C+ D F +12 C B A+
 Tue, Nov 11 110 @Wyoming L 65 - 79 22% -5  1 - 1 -7 -11 F+ C F +5 C+ A+ A-
 Sat, Nov 15 305 @UNC Greensboro W 69 - 63 66% +3  2 - 1 +1 -12 F C- F+ +13 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 18 64 @Mississippi L 65 - 72 12% -7  2 - 2 +5 +0 F+ B- C +4 A+ F B+
 Fri, Nov 21 73 @Tulsa L 75 - 84 14% +2  2 - 3 +2 +5 B- C- B+ -4 D- A+ B
 Tue, Nov 25 310 Northern Illinois W 77 - 59 84% +7  3 - 3 +6 +6 A- C+ B +2 B+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 3 142 @Kent St. L 84 - 96 30% -3  3 - 4 -8 +8 A- F C -15 F C D+
 Sun, Dec 7 191 @UT Rio Grande Valley L 50 - 63 42% -0  3 - 5 -12 -20 F D- C +8 A- F A+
 Fri, Dec 12 129 East Tennessee St. W 76 - 75 50% +6  4 - 5 -0 +3 C D- A -3 D+ A+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 348 North Florida W 102 - 83 90% +8  5 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +5 F A+ A+ -4 C- A+ C+
 Sat, Jan 3 283 Jacksonville W 71 - 68 80% +2  6 - 5 2 - 0 -7 -5 F D A -2 F C- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 231 @Florida Gulf Coast W 82 - 71 50% +3  7 - 5 3 - 0 +10 +7 D A+ B- +3 C- B+ A
 Sat, Jan 10 330 @Stetson W 81 - 69 73% +7  8 - 5 4 - 0 +5 +4 F+ C+ A+ +1 C+ D C+
 Thu, Jan 15 258 Eastern Kentucky W 74 - 72 75% +1  9 - 5 5 - 0 -6 +3 D A- D+ -9 F A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 167 @Lipscomb L 78 - 82 36% -2  9 - 6 5 - 1 -2 +2 C- C C- -4 D A+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 231 Florida Gulf Coast W 83 - 62 72% +12  10 - 6 6 - 1 +14 +8 C- B+ A +7 C+ B+ A+
 Fri, Jan 23 330 Stetson W 73 - 65 87% +0  11 - 6 7 - 1 -5 -4 F A+ D -1 C A C-
 Wed, Jan 28 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 76 - 75 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 329 @West Georgia W 77 - 71 72%
 Thu, Feb 5 167 Lipscomb W 75 - 73 59%
 Sat, Feb 7 328 North Alabama W 79 - 67 87%
 Wed, Feb 11 186 @Queens L 77 - 79 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 302 Bellarmine W 82 - 72 82%
 Thu, Feb 19 348 @North Florida W 87 - 79 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 283 @Jacksonville W 70 - 67 61%
 Wed, Feb 25 233 Central Arkansas W 75 - 69 71%
 Sat, Feb 28 302 @Bellarmine W 79 - 75 64%
Totals 18 - 9 14 - 4 -1 -3 D C C+ +2 D+ B+ B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.5 10.2 16.5 10.0 2.8 42.2 1st
2nd 0.3 3.1 10.7 11.0 3.8 0.2 29.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 3.4 8.0 7.4 1.9 0.1 21.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.2 2.7 1.8 0.3 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.6 2.2 6.6 13.1 20.9 23.2 20.4 10.2 2.8 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 2.8    2.8
16-2 98.3% 10.0    8.6 1.4 0.0
15-3 80.8% 16.5    10.2 5.6 0.7
14-4 44.1% 10.2    3.6 5.0 1.6 0.1
13-5 12.0% 2.5    0.4 1.1 0.9 0.1
12-6 1.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 42.2% 42.2 25.5 13.2 3.3 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 2.8% 38.0% 38.0% 12.8 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 0.0 1.7
16-2 10.2% 35.1% 35.1% 13.8 0.1 1.1 2.0 0.5 6.6
15-3 20.4% 28.9% 28.9% 14.2 0.0 0.6 3.3 1.9 0.1 14.5
14-4 23.2% 24.8% 24.8% 14.6 0.2 2.3 3.1 0.2 17.4
13-5 20.9% 20.5% 20.5% 14.8 0.1 1.1 2.7 0.4 16.6
12-6 13.1% 16.2% 16.2% 15.1 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.4 11.0
11-7 6.6% 14.4% 14.4% 15.4 0.0 0.5 0.4 5.6
10-8 2.2% 9.9% 9.9% 15.6 0.1 0.1 2.0
9-9 0.6% 12.8% 12.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 0.5
8-10 0.1% 0.1
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 14.4 76.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 1.1% 100.0% 12.8 0.5 34.6 53.6 10.9 0.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.6%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7%