Stetson
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.5 #330
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #307
Pace 69.0 #173
Improvement +4.3 #24

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #303 C- D D+ C- C-
Defense #331 D- D C- C+ C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #331 1.20 #126 -3.1 #290
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #158 0.73 #216 +0.1 #171
Three Pointers 46% #75 0.92 #299 +0.5 #159
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #249 -2.5 #249
Freethrows 0.29 #231 69% #278 0.20 #248
Second Chance 25.2% #317 0.95 #305 0.24 #333
Turnovers 18.4% #298
Total Offense -4.9 #303

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #193 1.34 #351 -3.5 #295
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #230 0.88 #339 -0.5 #215
Three Pointers 43% #124 1.04 #227 -1.4 #251
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #330 -5.4 #330
Freethrows 0.28 #96 72% #185 0.20 #105
Second Chance 30.9% #194 1.23 #349 0.38 #311
Turnovers 15.2% #255
Total Defense -5.5 #331

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.1% #262 0.5% #213
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.9% #243 10.0% #335
Possession Length 18.3 #269 16.3 #32
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #288 0.19 #247
Improvement +3.2 #38 +1.2 #108

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.7% 1.0% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.2% 0.3% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 18.4% 29.5% 9.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 12.7% 4.8% 19.2%
First Four0.6% 0.9% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: North Florida (Away) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 11
Quad 49 - 109 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 111 @Rhode Island L 62 - 93 6% -17  0 - 1 -24 -9 D F F -14 D- F C
 Mon, Nov 10 39 @Miami (FL) L 61 - 102 2% -18  0 - 2 -25 -11 F C- D+ -10 D- B+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 273 @Western Carolina L 65 - 76 25% -8  0 - 3 -14 -14 F C- C+ +0 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 19 276 Howard W 64 - 60 46% +10  1 - 3 -5 -8 F+ F F +3 A- A F
 Sat, Nov 22 353 VMI W 99 - 80 71% +9  2 - 3 +3 +23 A+ B B- -19 F D F
 Tue, Nov 25 153 Wright St. L 62 - 79 22% -15  2 - 4 -19 -8 D C+ D- -12 F D- B+
 Sat, Nov 29 282 Southern Utah L 68 - 70 37% +3  2 - 5 -9 -7 D+ C- F -2 D+ C+ C
 Sun, Nov 30 208 @Robert Morris L 62 - 80 16% -12  2 - 6 -18 -3 F D+ B -17 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 71 @Grand Canyon L 45 - 67 4% -4  2 - 7 -11 -16 D- D F +4 B D+ A-
 Sat, Dec 6 78 @South Carolina L 51 - 82 4% -15  2 - 8 -20 -12 F D- A- -12 F F A+
 Mon, Dec 22 52 @Oklahoma L 54 - 107 2% -25  2 - 9 -40 -13 F C- F -28 F F C-
 Thu, Jan 1 328 @North Alabama W 70 - 67 38% +0  3 - 9 1 - 0 -4 -3 B F F -1 B- D C+
 Sat, Jan 3 233 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 93 19% -13  3 - 10 1 - 1 -21 +2 B+ D+ F -24 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 167 Lipscomb W 91 - 83 26% +11  4 - 10 2 - 1 +4 +9 A+ F B+ -6 D- B- B-
 Sat, Jan 10 175 Austin Peay L 69 - 81 27% -7  4 - 11 2 - 2 -16 -4 D- B- C -12 C- D- F
 Thu, Jan 15 329 West Georgia W 95 - 86 61% +4  5 - 11 3 - 2 -4 +11 A+ D F -16 D F F
 Sat, Jan 17 186 Queens L 81 - 87 29% -8  5 - 12 3 - 3 -11 +2 C+ D+ D+ -13 D B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 167 @Lipscomb L 74 - 79 OT 12% -5  5 - 13 3 - 4 -3 -6 C- F F +4 B- A+ D-
 Fri, Jan 23 175 @Austin Peay L 65 - 73 13% -0  5 - 14 3 - 5 -6 -2 D F+ B -5 C F B
 Thu, Jan 29 348 @North Florida L 84 - 85 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 328 North Alabama W 76 - 73 61%
 Thu, Feb 5 302 @Bellarmine L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Feb 7 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 73 - 81 22%
 Thu, Feb 12 283 Jacksonville L 69 - 70 49%
 Sat, Feb 14 231 @Florida Gulf Coast L 73 - 82 20%
 Thu, Feb 19 233 Central Arkansas L 72 - 75 37%
 Sat, Feb 21 348 North Florida W 87 - 82 67%
 Thu, Feb 26 283 @Jacksonville L 67 - 73 28%
 Sat, Feb 28 231 Florida Gulf Coast L 76 - 79 38%
Totals 9 - 20 7 - 11 -10 -5 C- D D+ -6 D- D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 3rd
4th 0.1 1.0 1.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 4.3 4th
5th 0.0 1.8 5.3 2.4 0.4 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.0 1.3 7.1 4.2 0.4 0.0 13.1 6th
7th 0.3 6.3 7.2 0.8 0.0 14.6 7th
8th 0.0 3.1 9.8 2.3 0.1 15.2 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 9.2 4.9 0.2 15.3 9th
10th 0.2 4.7 6.6 0.7 12.1 10th
11th 0.1 2.3 5.8 1.5 0.0 9.8 11th
12th 0.9 2.8 1.4 0.1 5.2 12th
Total 1.0 5.3 12.9 20.8 23.0 18.5 11.5 4.8 1.7 0.4 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.4% 5.3% 5.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
11-7 1.7% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.1 1.6
10-8 4.8% 2.4% 2.4% 16.0 0.1 4.7
9-9 11.5% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.2 11.3
8-10 18.5% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 18.4
7-11 23.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.9
6-12 20.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 20.8
5-13 12.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 12.9
4-14 5.3% 5.3
3-15 1.0% 1.0
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 16.0 99.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%