Central Arkansas
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.2 #233
Expected Predictive Rating -5.3 #240
Pace 68.2 #197
Improvement +2.8 #64

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #239 C D+ C D- C+
Defense #227 C- C- C+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #295 1.20 #122 -1.5 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #290 0.56 #358 -3.5 #337
Three Pointers 50% #29 1.01 #201 +4.3 #52
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #191 -0.8 #197
Freethrows 0.25 #322 68% #321 0.17 #341
Second Chance 27.3% #274 1.03 #207 0.28 #258
Turnovers 16.0% #151
Total Offense -2.6 #239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 32% #327 1.26 #301 +2.0 #111
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #359 0.72 #110 +3.2 #4
Three Pointers 55% #3 0.99 #133 -6.1 #356
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #208 -0.9 #209
Freethrows 0.26 #59 74% #242 0.19 #78
Second Chance 29.3% #126 1.20 #339 0.35 #265
Turnovers 17.3% #116
Total Defense -1.6 #227

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.7% #144 1.0% #266
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.0% #204 1.0% #202
Possession Length 17.3 #170 17.0 #130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #192 0.18 #200
Improvement +3.0 #45 -0.2 #202

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 10.5% 13.3% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.5 15.4 15.7
.500 or above 46.2% 66.8% 37.1%
.500 or above in Conference 92.6% 98.4% 90.0%
Conference Champion 5.3% 12.5% 2.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four2.8% 2.1% 3.2%
First Round9.3% 12.3% 7.9%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Queens (Away) - 30.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 40 - 4
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 4
Quad 20 - 10 - 5
Quad 31 - 41 - 9
Quad 414 - 715 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 29 @North Carolina L 54 - 94 3% -24  0 - 1 -22 -16 F B- F -3 C F B
 Tue, Nov 11 19 @Arkansas L 56 - 93 2% -16  0 - 2 -17 -13 F D A+ -2 D+ A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 16 239 Samford L 77 - 84 OT 62% +3  0 - 3 -14 -7 D D- D+ -7 D B- D-
 Thu, Nov 20 140 @North Texas L 56 - 74 21% -5  0 - 4 -14 -9 D+ F F -5 B- B- D-
 Sun, Nov 23 242 Eastern Washington W 92 - 65 63% +20  1 - 4 +20 +12 A+ F C+ +7 B D+ A+
 Tue, Nov 25 312 Eastern Illinois W 81 - 60 77% +16  2 - 4 +9 +15 A+ A+ C- -4 D C- C
 Sat, Nov 29 129 @East Tennessee St. L 57 - 80 20% -10  2 - 5 -18 -15 F C- C+ -3 F A+ D+
 Wed, Dec 3 279 Arkansas Little Rock W 85 - 47 71% +29  3 - 5 +28 +5 C+ D- C- +22 A+ B A+
 Sun, Dec 7 311 @East Texas A&M L 68 - 75 57% -1  3 - 6 -13 -9 C- F B- -3 B F C
 Sat, Dec 13 12 @Vanderbilt L 72 - 83 2% -15  3 - 7 +11 +4 C C+ A- +8 A+ F A-
 Sun, Dec 21 36 @SMU L 82 - 99 4% -11  3 - 8 -0 +14 A- A- D- -14 D F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 231 Florida Gulf Coast W 85 - 83 61% -3  4 - 8 1 - 0 -5 +14 B A A+ -19 F C C-
 Sat, Jan 3 330 Stetson W 93 - 73 81% +13  5 - 8 2 - 0 +7 +16 B- A C- -9 F D B+
 Thu, Jan 8 302 @Bellarmine L 78 - 84 OT 54% +0  5 - 9 2 - 1 -11 -8 F C- B+ -3 D D C-
 Sat, Jan 10 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 79 OT 43% -1  5 - 10 2 - 2 -6 -3 B- F F+ -4 F B- C
 Thu, Jan 15 283 Jacksonville W 62 - 60 72% -5  6 - 10 3 - 2 -8 -3 C- F+ D+ -5 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 17 348 North Florida W 98 - 69 85% +23  7 - 10 4 - 2 +14 +11 B C- B+ +3 C+ A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 22 329 @West Georgia W 86 - 65 62% +9  8 - 10 5 - 2 +14 +12 A+ F B+ +2 F F A+
 Wed, Jan 28 186 @Queens L 76 - 81 31%
 Sat, Jan 31 258 Eastern Kentucky W 78 - 74 65%
 Wed, Feb 4 328 North Alabama W 78 - 69 81%
 Sat, Feb 7 167 @Lipscomb L 71 - 78 27%
 Mon, Feb 9 328 @North Alabama W 75 - 72 63%
 Thu, Feb 12 302 Bellarmine W 80 - 73 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 329 West Georgia W 79 - 70 81%
 Thu, Feb 19 330 @Stetson W 75 - 72 63%
 Sat, Feb 21 231 @Florida Gulf Coast L 74 - 77 39%
 Wed, Feb 25 175 @Austin Peay L 69 - 75 29%
 Sat, Feb 28 186 Queens W 79 - 78 52%
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 7 -4 -3 C D+ C -2 C- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 1.1 2.4 1.4 0.2 5.3 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 5.4 2.8 0.2 11.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.7 9.2 5.3 0.5 20.2 3rd
4th 0.1 2.6 12.7 16.5 7.8 1.0 0.0 40.7 4th
5th 1.0 5.7 5.2 0.9 0.0 12.8 5th
6th 0.1 2.3 2.7 0.4 5.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.4 0.0 2.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 0.3 1.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.3 0.0 0.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.4 1.8 5.2 11.4 19.0 22.4 19.4 12.8 5.7 1.6 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 88.1% 1.4    0.9 0.4 0.0
14-4 42.5% 2.4    0.7 1.1 0.6 0.1
13-5 8.8% 1.1    0.1 0.5 0.4 0.1
12-6 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0    0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 5.3% 5.3 2.0 2.1 1.1 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.2% 30.6% 30.6% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 1.6% 25.5% 25.5% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 1.2
14-4 5.7% 20.4% 20.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.2 4.6
13-5 12.8% 15.6% 15.6% 15.3 0.2 1.1 0.8 10.8
12-6 19.4% 13.4% 13.4% 15.6 0.0 0.9 1.7 16.8
11-7 22.4% 9.5% 9.5% 15.8 0.5 1.6 20.3
10-8 19.0% 7.4% 7.4% 16.0 0.0 1.4 17.6
9-9 11.4% 4.6% 4.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5 10.9
8-10 5.2% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.1 5.1
7-11 1.8% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.0 1.7
6-12 0.4% 0.4
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 15.5 89.5 0.0%