Eastern Kentucky
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.3 #258
Expected Predictive Rating -8.7 #308
Pace 68.5 #192
Improvement +0.6 #156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #150 C- B- C- D- D
Defense #333 D C- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 24% #365 1.11 #242 -9.2 #365
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #135 0.76 #173 +0.8 #136
Three Pointers 54% #9 1.02 #188 +6.5 #22
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #235 -1.9 #235
Freethrows 0.24 #343 70% #240 0.17 #345
Second Chance 32.2% #139 1.18 #40 0.38 #66
Turnovers 17.6% #259
Total Offense +0.3 #150

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #165 1.28 #319 -2.8 #273
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #134 0.94 #361 -2.4 #338
Three Pointers 39% #243 1.04 #229 +0.6 #150
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #315 -4.6 #316
Freethrows 0.32 #237 73% #209 0.23 #242
Second Chance 33.2% #287 1.06 #205 0.35 #264
Turnovers 14.4% #299
Total Defense -5.6 #333

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.6% #326 -0.2% #147
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.2% #195 9.3% #331
Possession Length 18.9 #322 16.2 #28
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #251 0.25 #354
Improvement +2.0 #82 -1.4 #267

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.5% 6.8% 4.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.9 16.0
.500 or above 1.4% 2.8% 0.3%
.500 or above in Conference 42.8% 58.8% 29.5%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.1% 5.0%
First Four4.6% 5.4% 4.0%
First Round3.7% 4.8% 2.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Austin Peay (Home) - 45.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 32 - 72 - 12
Quad 49 - 811 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 10 166 Western Kentucky L 79 - 87 43% +0  0 - 1 -12 -0 A- F+ D+ -11 D- A- F
 Wed, Nov 12 12 @Vanderbilt L 62 - 92 1% -19  0 - 2 -8 -3 D- C C -3 D- A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 18 142 @Kent St. L 78 - 93 19% -16  0 - 3 -11 -5 F+ B F -4 D C C+
 Sat, Nov 22 154 Mercer L 83 - 95 39% -11  0 - 4 -15 +5 D B B- -20 F D- A-
 Mon, Nov 24 180 @Northern Kentucky L 71 - 82 26% -4  0 - 5 -9 -3 F B- C -7 C- F C-
 Sat, Nov 29 211 Wofford L 77 - 83 53% -8  0 - 6 -12 -3 F A+ B- -9 C C F
 Wed, Dec 3 89 @Illinois St. L 78 - 89 10% -9  0 - 7 -2 +9 C+ B+ D+ -10 F F C+
 Wed, Dec 10 312 @Eastern Illinois W 68 - 59 52% +5  1 - 7 +3 +4 C D+ C -0 C+ C- C
 Sat, Dec 13 91 Miami (OH) L 69 - 79 22% -9  1 - 8 -7 -3 D- C+ F+ -5 C D- D+
 Wed, Dec 17 196 @Jacksonville St. W 62 - 59 28% +5  2 - 8 +4 -3 D- A- F +7 B+ A C-
 Sun, Dec 21 100 @Wichita St. L 57 - 88 11% -22  2 - 9 -23 -9 F+ D B -15 D- F+ F+
 Thu, Jan 1 186 @Queens L 89 - 91 27% -1  2 - 10 0 - 1 -1 +13 B- C A+ -14 C- F F
 Sat, Jan 3 329 @West Georgia L 76 - 88 58% +1  2 - 11 0 - 2 -19 -0 D+ B- B- -19 F F F+
 Thu, Jan 8 328 North Alabama W 88 - 80 78% +3  3 - 11 1 - 2 -5 +13 C- A+ A -18 F C D-
 Sat, Jan 10 233 Central Arkansas W 79 - 75 OT 57% +1  4 - 11 2 - 2 -3 +2 B C- C -5 F A+ B-
 Thu, Jan 15 175 @Austin Peay L 72 - 74 25% -1  4 - 12 2 - 3 -0 +11 A+ D F -11 D+ F C+
 Sat, Jan 17 302 Bellarmine W 89 - 69 72% +11  5 - 12 3 - 3 +9 +14 C A+ D- -3 A- C- D
 Thu, Jan 22 348 @North Florida L 85 - 87 65% -2  5 - 13 3 - 4 -11 +0 D+ B- D- -12 F+ F C-
 Sat, Jan 24 283 @Jacksonville L 76 - 81 OT 46% +3  5 - 14 3 - 5 -9 +4 D+ A+ F -13 F F B
 Wed, Jan 28 175 Austin Peay L 75 - 76 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 233 @Central Arkansas L 74 - 78 35%
 Thu, Feb 5 231 Florida Gulf Coast W 80 - 78 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 330 Stetson W 81 - 73 78%
 Wed, Feb 11 167 @Lipscomb L 74 - 82 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 328 @North Alabama W 77 - 75 58%
 Wed, Feb 18 329 West Georgia W 82 - 74 77%
 Sat, Feb 21 302 @Bellarmine L 80 - 81 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 186 Queens L 81 - 82 49%
 Sat, Feb 28 167 Lipscomb L 77 - 79 44%
Totals 10 - 19 8 - 10 -5 +0 C- B- C- -6 D C- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.6 2nd
3rd 0.4 1.3 0.8 0.0 2.6 3rd
4th 0.1 1.6 5.6 3.8 0.5 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 2.5 9.6 6.9 1.1 20.1 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 9.7 7.9 1.2 0.0 20.3 6th
7th 0.3 6.0 8.0 1.4 0.0 15.6 7th
8th 0.0 2.5 7.7 2.1 0.1 12.3 8th
9th 0.5 4.7 2.8 0.1 0.0 8.1 9th
10th 0.1 2.0 2.9 0.3 5.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 1.5 0.5 2.4 11th
12th 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.9 12th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.2 11.0 18.2 22.6 20.4 14.0 6.3 1.8 0.2 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 27.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 1.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 25.0% 25.0% 14.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.8% 16.6% 16.6% 15.2 0.0 0.2 0.1 1.5
11-7 6.3% 10.5% 10.5% 15.9 0.1 0.6 5.7
10-8 14.0% 9.7% 9.7% 16.0 1.4 12.7
9-9 20.4% 6.8% 6.8% 16.0 1.4 19.0
8-10 22.6% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.9 21.7
7-11 18.2% 2.8% 2.8% 16.0 0.5 17.7
6-12 11.0% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.3 10.7
5-13 4.2% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 4.2
4-14 1.1% 1.1
3-15 0.1% 0.1
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 5.5% 5.5% 0.0% 15.9 94.6 0.0%