North Alabama
Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -10.4 #328
Expected Predictive Rating -10.3 #326
Pace 66.6 #243
Improvement -6.1 #362

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #284 D- C C C- C+
Defense #343 D+ F+ D- C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #57 0.97 #352 -1.1 #226
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #190 0.63 #340 -1.5 #261
Three Pointers 37% #276 0.96 #258 -3.4 #297
1st FG Attempt 0.90 #338 -6.0 #339
Freethrows 0.30 #178 68% #315 0.21 #221
Second Chance 30.1% #202 1.10 #105 0.33 #147
Turnovers 16.9% #207
Total Offense -4.2 #284

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #123 1.19 #226 -1.9 #246
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #297 0.88 #335 +0.5 #149
Three Pointers 43% #127 1.03 #202 -1.1 #231
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #268 -2.5 #269
Freethrows 0.29 #144 74% #273 0.21 #162
Second Chance 36.2% #344 1.16 #316 0.42 #353
Turnovers 13.3% #337
Total Defense -6.3 #343

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.9% #129 1.3% #292
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -12.5% #349 3.6% #251
Possession Length 18.0 #249 16.9 #98
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #320 0.21 #306
Improvement -1.5 #260 -4.6 #357

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.5% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 1.6% 5.0% 0.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 61.0% 37.6% 66.5%
First Four0.4% 0.7% 0.3%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida Gulf Coast (Away) - 18.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 11 - 2
Quad 31 - 62 - 8
Quad 46 - 128 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 5 85 @Mississippi St. L 62 - 86 4% -5  0 - 1 -14 -6 D C+ F -7 D+ B F
 Tue, Nov 11 267 Northwestern St. W 87 - 83 OT 44% +5  1 - 1 -5 +3 F A+ C -8 D- A+ D
 Sat, Nov 15 129 East Tennessee St. L 74 - 78 19% +8  1 - 2 -5 +3 D+ A+ C- -8 F+ A+ F
 Mon, Nov 17 33 @Clemson L 61 - 81 1% -14  1 - 3 -3 +6 D+ B+ A+ -11 B F A
 Sat, Nov 22 257 @Chattanooga L 57 - 71 22% -6  1 - 4 -16 -8 D D F -10 D+ F A
 Mon, Dec 1 196 @Jacksonville St. W 73 - 66 15% -2  2 - 4 +8 +6 D- B B +3 A+ F D-
 Wed, Dec 3 98 @San Francisco W 65 - 63 5% -4  3 - 4 +10 +2 F A+ F +9 A+ C+ D
 Mon, Dec 15 298 @Alabama A&M L 60 - 68 29% -0  3 - 5 -13 -10 D+ F D -3 A+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 155 @Loyola Marymount L 57 - 91 10% -22  3 - 6 -31 -10 F C- A -21 F F F
 Thu, Jan 1 330 Stetson L 67 - 70 62% -0  3 - 7 0 - 1 -16 -9 F C D- -8 F B C+
 Sat, Jan 3 231 Florida Gulf Coast L 55 - 72 37% -8  3 - 8 0 - 2 -24 -23 F F B- -2 D B B+
 Thu, Jan 8 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 80 - 88 22% -3  3 - 9 0 - 3 -10 +8 B- C- C+ -19 D+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 302 @Bellarmine W 82 - 73 31% +1  4 - 9 1 - 3 +4 +14 A+ D C -9 D+ F F+
 Thu, Jan 15 348 North Florida L 91 - 105 68% -10  4 - 10 1 - 4 -29 +4 C+ B+ C -34 F F F
 Sat, Jan 17 283 Jacksonville L 68 - 90 49% -13  4 - 11 1 - 5 -32 -6 F C+ C+ -27 F F D
 Wed, Jan 21 186 @Queens L 62 - 87 14% -10  4 - 12 1 - 6 -24 -12 F D+ F -13 D- F C
 Thu, Jan 29 231 @Florida Gulf Coast L 72 - 81 19%
 Sat, Jan 31 330 @Stetson L 73 - 76 39%
 Wed, Feb 4 233 @Central Arkansas L 69 - 78 19%
 Sat, Feb 7 175 @Austin Peay L 67 - 79 13%
 Mon, Feb 9 233 Central Arkansas L 72 - 75 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 329 West Georgia W 76 - 73 61%
 Sat, Feb 14 258 Eastern Kentucky L 75 - 77 42%
 Wed, Feb 18 186 Queens L 76 - 82 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 167 @Lipscomb L 69 - 82 12%
 Wed, Feb 25 302 Bellarmine W 78 - 77 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 329 @West Georgia L 73 - 76 40%
Totals 8 - 19 5 - 13 -10 -4 D- C C -6 D+ F+ D-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 1.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 2.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 1.3 0.1 4.2 7th
8th 0.0 2.4 3.6 0.4 0.0 6.4 8th
9th 0.0 1.0 6.2 1.7 0.0 8.9 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 7.1 5.7 0.3 14.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.4 7.9 9.6 1.9 0.0 20.8 11th
12th 2.0 7.8 15.1 13.3 3.5 0.1 41.7 12th
Total 2.0 7.8 16.5 22.2 21.3 16.4 8.7 3.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.3% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
9-9 1.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.0 1.2
8-10 3.6% 2.1% 2.1% 16.0 0.1 3.5
7-11 8.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.1 8.6
6-12 16.4% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.1 16.3
5-13 21.3% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 21.3
4-14 22.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 22.1
3-15 16.5% 16.5
2-16 7.8% 7.8
1-17 2.0% 2.0
0-18
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 16.0 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.0%