Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.4#295
Expected Predictive Rating-8.1#289
Pace66.1#271
Improvement+1.9#65

Offense
Total Offense-0.2#171
First Shot+3.3#87
After Offensive Rebound-3.5#349
Layup/Dunks+5.5#31
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.1#298
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#190
Freethrows+0.3#157
Improvement-0.4#212

Defense
Total Defense-7.2#354
First Shot-8.7#364
After Offensive Rebounds+1.5#84
Layups/Dunks-3.7#304
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#236
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.9#336
Freethrows+0.2#161
Improvement+2.3#36
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 3.2% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.6 15.8
.500 or above 8.8% 13.7% 4.3%
.500 or above in Conference 33.8% 39.8% 28.4%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.3% 1.2%
Last Place in Conference 11.5% 9.0% 13.7%
First Four1.4% 1.5% 1.3%
First Round1.8% 2.4% 1.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Chattanooga (Home) - 47.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 20 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 910 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 19 @Georgia L 59-104 2%     0 - 1 -26.0 -10.3 -11.9
  Sat, Nov 8 67 @Kansas St. L 71-98 5%     0 - 2 -15.7 +1.4 -16.7
  Sat, Nov 15 244 Wofford L 86-94 52%     0 - 3 -15.7 +8.4 -24.1
  Wed, Nov 19 55 @Notre Dame L 79-86 4%     0 - 4 +5.6 +12.8 -7.2
  Mon, Nov 24 361 @The Citadel W 70-58 67%     1 - 4 +0.2 +0.9 +1.2
  Tue, Nov 25 275 Houston Christian W 74-69 45%     2 - 4 -1.0 +7.6 -7.8
  Sat, Dec 6 100 @Murray St. L 68-81 8%     2 - 5 -5.1 +1.4 -7.4
  Sat, Dec 13 194 Northern Kentucky L 76-80 41%     2 - 6 -9.1 +0.6 -9.6
  Wed, Dec 17 225 Chattanooga L 75-76 47%    
  Tue, Dec 23 21 @Kentucky L 64-90 1%    
  Thu, Jan 1 315 @West Georgia L 75-76 45%    
  Sat, Jan 3 191 @Queens L 77-85 21%    
  Thu, Jan 8 283 Central Arkansas W 76-74 58%    
  Sat, Jan 10 196 North Alabama L 73-75 43%    
  Thu, Jan 15 142 @Lipscomb L 70-82 14%    
  Sat, Jan 17 257 @Eastern Kentucky L 75-80 33%    
  Thu, Jan 22 291 @Jacksonville L 70-73 38%    
  Sat, Jan 24 344 @North Florida W 82-81 54%    
  Wed, Jan 28 315 West Georgia W 78-73 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 191 Queens L 80-82 41%    
  Thu, Feb 5 346 Stetson W 78-71 75%    
  Sat, Feb 7 181 Florida Gulf Coast L 77-80 40%    
  Thu, Feb 12 283 @Central Arkansas L 73-77 36%    
  Sat, Feb 14 193 @Austin Peay L 69-77 22%    
  Thu, Feb 19 142 Lipscomb L 73-79 31%    
  Sat, Feb 21 257 Eastern Kentucky W 78-77 53%    
  Wed, Feb 25 196 @North Alabama L 70-78 25%    
  Sat, Feb 28 193 Austin Peay L 72-74 42%    
Projected Record 10 - 18 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.6 1.7 0.6 0.0 4.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.5 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 2.6 4.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 8.2 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.5 4.8 2.1 0.1 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.3 2.4 5.7 2.9 0.3 0.0 11.6 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 6.2 3.9 0.5 0.0 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.7 4.4 0.8 0.0 13.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 2.1 5.0 4.1 0.9 0.0 12.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.0 4.0 3.0 0.7 0.0 10.2 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.1 1.3 0.4 0.0 6.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.3 4.4 7.6 10.6 13.1 14.2 13.3 11.3 9.3 5.8 3.8 2.2 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 94.1% 0.1    0.1 0.0
15-3 86.0% 0.3    0.3 0.1
14-4 57.5% 0.5    0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-5 22.1% 0.5    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
12-6 5.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 23.5% 23.5% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-3 0.4% 26.4% 26.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-4 0.9% 17.1% 17.1% 15.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-5 2.2% 10.8% 10.8% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.9
12-6 3.8% 8.7% 8.7% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 3.5
11-7 5.8% 6.1% 6.1% 15.8 0.1 0.3 5.5
10-8 9.3% 4.4% 4.4% 16.0 0.0 0.4 8.9
9-9 11.3% 3.6% 3.6% 16.0 0.0 0.4 10.9
8-10 13.3% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.2 13.2
7-11 14.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 14.1
6-12 13.1% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.0
5-13 10.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 10.6
4-14 7.6% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 7.6
3-15 4.4% 4.4
2-16 2.3% 2.3
1-17 0.7% 0.7
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.9 97.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%