Bellarmine
Atlantic Sun
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -8.2 #302
Expected Predictive Rating -9.0 #313
Pace 65.3 #277
Improvement -2.4 #293

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #122 B F+ C B B+
Defense #363 F D- D+ C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #45 1.31 #36 +6.8 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 13% #327 0.70 #261 -3.2 #328
Three Pointers 43% #146 1.06 #123 +1.8 #121
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #47 +5.4 #47
Freethrows 0.33 #107 77% #46 0.25 #67
Second Chance 19.2% #364 1.05 #163 0.20 #357
Turnovers 16.7% #199
Total Offense +1.7 #122

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #315 1.40 #365 -1.0 #215
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #288 0.80 #247 +1.0 #120
Three Pointers 50% #13 1.22 #362 -9.6 #363
1st FG Attempt 1.21 #364 -9.6 #364
Freethrows 0.31 #225 73% #212 0.23 #233
Second Chance 35.1% #328 1.16 #315 0.41 #345
Turnovers 15.1% #267
Total Defense -9.9 #363

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.8% #28 0.2% #175
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 7.4% #67 18.5% #365
Possession Length 19.0 #333 16.8 #94
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #272 0.15 #134
Improvement +0.5 #152 -2.9 #329

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.2% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.5% 0.7% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 9.9% 13.1% 2.7%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 19.8% 14.1% 32.6%
First Four1.6% 1.9% 1.0%
First Round1.1% 1.3% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: West Georgia (Home) - 69.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 20 - 30 - 5
Quad 31 - 51 - 10
Quad 49 - 1010 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 28 @Georgia L 59 - 104 2% -18  0 - 1 -27 -11 B- F F -13 F+ A- F
 Sat, Nov 8 88 @Kansas St. L 71 - 98 6% -11  0 - 2 -18 +2 C- C+ C -19 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 211 Wofford L 86 - 94 42% -8  0 - 3 -14 +7 B- B+ A -21 F A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 81 @Notre Dame L 79 - 86 5% -9  0 - 4 +3 +12 A+ F F -9 F F A-
 Mon, Nov 24 351 @The Citadel W 70 - 58 57% +5  1 - 4 +2 +3 C+ F B- +1 A- F C+
 Tue, Nov 25 300 Houston Christian W 74 - 69 50% -1  2 - 4 -3 +6 A- F C- -9 C- F F+
 Sat, Dec 6 101 @Murray St. L 68 - 81 7% -13  2 - 5 -5 +1 A F C- -6 F A+ A
 Sat, Dec 13 180 Northern Kentucky L 76 - 80 36% -6  2 - 6 -8 +0 B+ F F -9 F+ B- D
 Wed, Dec 17 257 Chattanooga W 79 - 64 50% -1  3 - 6 +7 +4 B F D- +3 A+ C- F
 Tue, Dec 23 27 @Kentucky L 85 - 99 2% -8  3 - 7 +4 +25 A+ A+ C- -22 F F+ C
 Thu, Jan 1 329 @West Georgia L 85 - 87 47% -6  3 - 8 0 - 1 -9 +10 A F A- -19 F C+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 186 @Queens L 76 - 98 19% -10  3 - 9 0 - 2 -21 -2 A- F F -19 F F C
 Thu, Jan 8 233 Central Arkansas W 84 - 78 OT 46% -0  4 - 9 1 - 2 -1 +3 A D- B- -5 A F+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 328 North Alabama L 73 - 82 69% -1  4 - 10 1 - 3 -22 +4 B+ D- C -28 F C D+
 Thu, Jan 15 167 @Lipscomb L 71 - 81 16% -14  4 - 11 1 - 4 -8 +4 F D+ A+ -12 F+ F B
 Sat, Jan 17 258 @Eastern Kentucky L 69 - 89 28% -11  4 - 12 1 - 5 -22 -1 D- F+ C+ -24 F F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 283 @Jacksonville W 77 - 70 35% +1  5 - 12 2 - 5 +3 +13 A- C D -9 C- D- D-
 Sat, Jan 24 348 @North Florida L 114 - 117 OT 54% -6  5 - 13 2 - 6 -12 +18 A+ D- A+ -29 F F F
 Wed, Jan 28 329 West Georgia W 81 - 76 70%
 Sat, Jan 31 186 Queens L 81 - 84 37%
 Thu, Feb 5 330 Stetson W 81 - 76 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 231 Florida Gulf Coast L 80 - 81 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 233 @Central Arkansas L 73 - 80 26%
 Sat, Feb 14 175 @Austin Peay L 72 - 82 18%
 Wed, Feb 18 167 Lipscomb L 77 - 82 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 258 Eastern Kentucky W 81 - 80 50%
 Wed, Feb 25 328 @North Alabama L 77 - 78 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 175 Austin Peay L 75 - 79 36%
Totals 9 - 19 6 - 12 -8 +2 B F+ C -10 F D- D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Atlantic Sun Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 1.2 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 1.3 3.2 1.1 0.1 5.7 5th
6th 1.1 5.2 2.5 0.2 9.0 6th
7th 0.3 5.2 5.3 0.5 0.0 11.3 7th
8th 0.0 3.4 9.4 1.8 0.1 14.8 8th
9th 0.0 1.4 9.9 4.9 0.2 16.4 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 8.2 8.0 0.7 18.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 4.8 6.8 1.2 0.0 13.6 11th
12th 0.5 2.6 4.0 1.5 0.1 8.7 12th
Total 0.5 3.4 10.1 17.9 22.9 21.3 14.0 6.9 2.6 0.5 0.0 Total



Atlantic Sun Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.5% 4.3% 4.3% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.4
10-8 2.6% 8.0% 8.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 2.4
9-9 6.9% 4.3% 4.3% 16.0 0.3 6.6
8-10 14.0% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.5 13.5
7-11 21.3% 1.6% 1.6% 16.0 0.3 21.0
6-12 22.9% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.3 22.6
5-13 17.9% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 17.8
4-14 10.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 10.0
3-15 3.4% 3.4
2-16 0.5% 0.5
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 16.0 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%