Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
2 Arizona 100.0%   1   21 - 0 8 - 0 +24.1      +12.1 4 +12.0 3 76.3 29 +32.8 1 +28.4 1
4 Houston 100.0%   2   17 - 2 5 - 1 +21.3      +10.9 9 +10.4 7 61.3 350 +22.2 9 +22.6 3
7 Iowa St. 100.0%   3   18 - 2 5 - 2 +20.4      +9.7 19 +10.7 6 70.5 136 +22.9 8 +17.1 5
14 BYU 99.9%   4   17 - 3 5 - 2 +18.6      +10.9 10 +7.7 20 72.2 89 +20.0 13 +17.0 6
15 Texas Tech 99.9%   4   16 - 4 6 - 1 +18.2      +11.3 8 +6.9 27 68.8 179 +21.1 11 +25.2 2
17 Kansas 99.6%   5   15 - 5 5 - 2 +17.9      +8.3 32 +9.6 11 68.2 200 +17.5 18 +16.6 7
44 TCU 55.6%   11   13 - 7 3 - 4 +11.6      +4.0 83 +7.6 21 69.3 165 +11.5 52 +12.3 9
45 Baylor 20.4%   10 - 8 1 - 6 +11.5      +9.0 26 +2.5 103 70.3 138 +9.7 61 +5.0 13
49 Central Florida 75.0%   10   16 - 4 5 - 3 +10.8      +7.1 48 +3.7 72 73.0 74 +17.1 21 +16.0 8
55 Cincinnati 4.5%   10 - 10 2 - 5 +9.9      +0.1 161 +9.8 8 71.1 119 +5.3 93 +8.6 10
56 West Virginia 28.5%   14 - 7 5 - 3 +9.8      +3.3 94 +6.6 34 60.5 358 +10.9 56 +18.6 4
63 Oklahoma St. 16.9%   14 - 6 2 - 5 +8.8      +6.0 58 +2.8 96 79.4 9 +11.8 51 +7.2 11
80 Arizona St. 2.5%   11 - 10 2 - 6 +7.4      +5.8 63 +1.6 118 72.6 81 +8.7 70 +4.3 14
82 Colorado 1.5%   12 - 8 2 - 5 +7.1      +5.8 62 +1.3 124 71.0 122 +6.9 81 +5.5 12
88 Kansas St. 0.3%   10 - 11 1 - 7 +6.5      +3.5 91 +3.0 94 77.1 20 +5.5 91 +0.1 16
104 Utah 0.1%   9 - 11 1 - 6 +4.7      +5.2 68 -0.6 186 70.9 124 +3.6 109 +4.2 15


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 4 Houston 86 15 Texas Tech 90   
Sat, Jan 24 45 Baylor 90 44 TCU 97   
Sat, Jan 24 17 Kansas 86 88 Kansas St. 62   
Sat, Jan 24 80 Arizona St. 82 55 Cincinnati 68   
Sat, Jan 24 14 BYU 91 104 Utah 78   
Sat, Jan 24 82 Colorado 86 49 Central Florida 95   
Sat, Jan 24 2 Arizona 88 56 West Virginia 53   
Sat, Jan 24 7 Iowa St. 84 63 Oklahoma St. 71   
Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona 86 14 BYU 83   
Tue, Jan 27 80 Arizona St. 76 49 Central Florida 79   
Tue, Jan 27 88 Kansas St. 54 56 West Virginia 59   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 45 Baylor 74 55 Cincinnati 75 55%   
Wed, Jan 28 4 Houston 72 44 TCU 65 74%   
Thu, Jan 29 82 Colorado 70 7 Iowa St. 86 93%   
Sat, Jan 31 14 BYU 75 17 Kansas 78 59%   
Sat, Jan 31 45 Baylor 71 56 West Virginia 72 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 15 Texas Tech 82 49 Central Florida 78 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 55 Cincinnati 59 4 Houston 74 90%   
Sat, Jan 31 63 Oklahoma St. 86 104 Utah 85 55%   
Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona 89 80 Arizona St. 76 90%   
Sun, Feb 1 82 Colorado 75 44 TCU 77 56%   
Sun, Feb 1 7 Iowa St. 84 88 Kansas St. 74 85%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th 15th 16th
Arizona 1.3 78.5 13.6 5.0 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Houston 2.5 23.1 36.6 19.7 11.0 5.8 2.5 1.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Iowa St. 3.5 7.9 22.1 23.4 20.7 14.2 7.5 3.0 0.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
BYU 4.6 3.6 11.5 15.3 18.6 19.7 15.4 9.8 4.1 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Texas Tech 3.3 10.1 24.6 25.7 18.3 11.0 6.1 3.0 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Kansas 4.9 2.7 7.5 12.4 17.3 21.1 20.4 12.0 4.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
TCU 8.2 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 5.1 10.1 17.0 22.0 19.9 11.4 5.6 3.0 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1
Baylor 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.2 5.4 10.6 17.7 17.4 15.5 12.2 9.3 5.6 3.3
Central Florida 7.2 0.1 0.7 2.1 4.6 9.7 16.3 22.3 20.4 14.0 6.1 2.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.9 4.6 9.8 15.9 20.7 17.4 12.2 8.1 4.9 2.7 1.1
West Virginia 7.2 0.1 0.8 2.3 4.8 9.7 15.4 20.8 20.9 14.7 6.6 2.6 1.0 0.3 0.1
Oklahoma St. 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.4 5.8 10.5 15.5 16.3 15.3 13.3 10.1 6.5 3.1
Arizona St. 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 5.4 11.1 15.1 16.9 16.8 15.1 10.9 6.0
Colorado 12.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.6 2.0 6.0 11.6 15.6 17.1 16.9 14.5 9.7 5.8
Kansas St. 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.3 2.9 5.2 8.3 11.8 17.3 25.5 27.2
Utah 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.9 4.7 7.6 10.4 13.3 16.8 22.0 22.4

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Arizona 16 - 2 29 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.1 4.3 11.3 21.3 28.2 24.0 9.3
Houston 14 - 4 26 - 5 0.1 0.2 1.2 4.4 10.8 19.5 25.6 22.9 12.1 3.3
Iowa St. 13 - 5 26 - 5 0.0 0.3 1.3 4.5 11.6 21.1 26.1 22.2 10.7 2.1
BYU 12 - 6 24 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 12.3 19.9 23.1 19.6 11.5 4.4 0.7
Texas Tech 13 - 5 23 - 8 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 9.8 18.2 25.0 23.3 13.5 4.7 0.6
Kansas 12 - 6 22 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 7.2 15.6 23.2 24.0 17.0 7.7 2.2 0.3
TCU 9 - 9 19 - 12 0.0 0.7 2.7 7.6 14.4 20.2 22.0 18.1 9.7 3.7 0.9 0.1
Baylor 6 - 12 15 - 15 0.1 1.2 4.9 11.9 20.1 23.7 20.0 11.7 4.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
Central Florida 10 - 8 21 - 9 0.4 2.5 7.7 15.9 22.6 22.6 16.7 8.4 2.6 0.6 0.0
Cincinnati 7 - 11 15 - 16 0.3 1.9 6.7 14.3 22.0 23.3 17.5 9.6 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0
West Virginia 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.4 2.5 9.0 16.4 22.6 21.2 15.6 8.2 3.2 0.8 0.1
Oklahoma St. 6 - 12 18 - 13 1.2 5.6 13.4 20.7 22.2 18.2 11.5 5.1 1.7 0.4 0.0 0.0
Arizona St. 5 - 13 14 - 17 2.1 9.5 19.8 26.0 22.2 13.3 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1
Colorado 5 - 13 15 - 16 1.7 8.4 19.5 26.5 22.5 14.0 5.6 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
Kansas St. 4 - 14 13 - 18 4.4 15.5 24.5 25.2 18.1 8.6 2.9 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
Utah 4 - 14 12 - 19 3.4 12.4 21.3 24.7 20.0 11.1 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Arizona 78.5% 60.9 13.8 3.2 0.5 0.1
Houston 23.1% 10.6 9.3 2.6 0.5 0.1
Iowa St. 7.9% 2.3 3.4 1.7 0.4 0.1
BYU 3.6% 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
Texas Tech 10.1% 3.6 4.1 1.8 0.4 0.1
Kansas 2.7% 0.8 0.9 0.7 0.2 0.1
TCU 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Baylor
Central Florida 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cincinnati
West Virginia 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Oklahoma St.
Arizona St.
Colorado
Kansas St.
Utah


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Arizona 100.0% 39.0% 61.1% 1   81.6 17.6 0.8 0.0 0.0 100.0%
Houston 100.0% 20.0% 80.0% 2   21.1 31.3 24.3 14.8 6.0 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
Iowa St. 100.0% 14.9% 85.1% 3   14.6 27.5 27.7 18.0 8.4 3.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
BYU 99.9% 8.3% 91.6% 4   4.1 12.1 22.3 24.3 19.5 11.0 4.0 1.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.1 99.8%
Texas Tech 99.9% 9.5% 90.5% 4   4.1 12.6 24.3 27.3 18.8 8.8 2.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.9%
Kansas 99.6% 6.8% 92.8% 5   1.4 5.1 12.9 20.5 23.4 18.2 10.4 4.4 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.4 99.5%
TCU 55.6% 0.4% 55.3% 11   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 4.2 10.1 14.4 14.4 10.3 0.2 44.4 55.5%
Baylor 20.4% 0.3% 20.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.5 3.3 4.5 7.9 0.3 0.0 79.6 20.2%
Central Florida 75.0% 0.4% 74.6% 10   0.1 0.2 1.2 3.7 8.0 14.1 18.9 17.6 11.1 0.1 25.0 74.9%
Cincinnati 4.5% 0.2% 4.3% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 1.1 2.4 0.1 95.5 4.3%
West Virginia 28.5% 0.3% 28.2% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 3.3 5.9 9.1 8.8 0.1 71.5 28.3%
Oklahoma St. 16.9% 0.1% 16.8% 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 2.5 4.7 7.8 0.2 83.1 16.8%
Arizona St. 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.5 0.1 0.0 97.5 2.5%
Colorado 1.5% 0.0% 1.5% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 0.0 98.5 1.5%
Kansas St. 0.3% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 99.8 0.2%
Utah 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.1%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 8.0 2.3 23.4 46.0 24.2 3.9 0.2 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 7.7 0.0 5.0 34.0 44.4 15.2 1.4 0.1
2nd Round 100.0% 6.3 0.0 0.2 2.4 15.8 42.6 31.4 7.1 0.5 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 99.9% 3.8 0.1 1.6 9.3 26.7 36.1 21.3 4.7 0.3
Elite Eight 95.8% 2.1 4.2 23.2 39.7 25.5 6.6 0.7 0.0
Final Four 78.5% 1.1 21.5 47.8 26.6 4.0 0.1
Final Game 53.2% 0.6 46.8 46.1 7.1
Champion 31.8% 0.3 68.2 31.8

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Arizona 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 99.7% 83.0% 60.3% 41.0% 26.2% 16.1%
Houston 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 97.2% 70.5% 41.7% 22.9% 12.1% 6.2%
Iowa St. 100.0% 0.0% 100.0% 95.9% 65.8% 36.4% 18.9% 9.3% 4.4%
BYU 99.9% 0.2% 99.8% 89.4% 52.8% 24.8% 11.2% 5.0% 2.0%
Texas Tech 99.9% 0.0% 99.9% 90.4% 52.4% 23.7% 10.3% 4.1% 1.7%
Kansas 99.6% 0.6% 99.4% 83.3% 43.8% 18.8% 8.2% 3.4% 1.4%
TCU 55.6% 11.4% 49.7% 21.6% 4.4% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Baylor 20.4% 8.5% 16.4% 7.5% 1.6% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Florida 75.0% 12.2% 67.8% 26.4% 4.6% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0%
Cincinnati 4.5% 2.5% 3.3% 1.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Virginia 28.5% 9.6% 23.3% 8.3% 1.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Oklahoma St. 16.9% 8.4% 12.1% 4.1% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Arizona St. 2.5% 1.6% 1.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Colorado 1.5% 1.1% 0.9% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kansas St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Utah 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%