Cincinnati
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +9.9 #55
Expected Predictive Rating +5.3 #93
Pace 71.1 #119
Improvement +2.7 #66

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #161 C C C+ D+ C
Defense #8 B+ B B+ B B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.26 #81 +0.9 #142
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #209 0.79 #121 -0.3 #193
Three Pointers 44% #119 0.94 #271 +0.0 #175
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #160 +0.6 #160
Freethrows 0.28 #246 66% #342 0.19 #294
Second Chance 31.3% #160 0.99 #252 0.31 #194
Turnovers 15.3% #115
Total Offense +0.1 #161

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #303 0.94 #9 +6.2 #21
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #88 0.77 #204 -1.3 #287
Three Pointers 42% #141 0.96 #99 +0.6 #148
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #36 +5.6 #36
Freethrows 0.26 #66 68% #29 0.18 #41
Second Chance 23.6% #11 1.11 #275 0.26 #54
Turnovers 20.2% #21
Total Defense +9.8 #8

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #176 -1.3% #72
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.9% #160 -9.7% #36
Possession Length 16.0 #57 18.4 #323
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #32 0.08 #5
Improvement +3.4 #30 -0.7 #229

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.5% 6.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 4.3% 6.3% 1.9%
Average Seed 10.3 10.2 10.6
.500 or above 34.1% 46.2% 19.3%
.500 or above in Conference 14.1% 21.0% 5.5%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.9% 1.2% 7.1%
First Four2.5% 3.5% 1.4%
First Round3.3% 4.8% 1.3%
Second Round1.3% 2.0% 0.6%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Baylor (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 82 - 8
Quad 1b1 - 52 - 13
Quad 24 - 36 - 16
Quad 33 - 09 - 16
Quad 46 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 273 Western Carolina W 94 - 63 95% +20  1 - 0 +22 +3 A C F +15 B+ B+ A+
 Fri, Nov 7 269 Georgia St. W 74 - 64 95% +6  2 - 0 +1 -6 D C- F +6 C C- A
 Tue, Nov 11 86 Dayton W 74 - 62 72% +9  3 - 0 +16 -5 A F F +19 A+ A+ C
 Sun, Nov 16 286 Mount St. Mary's W 72 - 55 96% +0  4 - 0 +7 -7 D F+ C +13 B+ B A
 Fri, Nov 21 18 Louisville L 64 - 74 24% -1  4 - 1 +7 -3 B- F+ C +11 A+ A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 338 NJIT W 104 - 80 98% +16  5 - 1 +10 +8 B+ C C+ -3 C F A+
 Wed, Nov 26 241 Eastern Michigan L 56 - 64 94% -9  5 - 2 -15 -15 F D D -1 B F A+
 Mon, Dec 1 187 Tarleton St. W 76 - 58 91% +8  6 - 2 +13 +0 B B+ F +13 B- B- A+
 Fri, Dec 5 79 @Xavier L 74 - 79 48% -4  6 - 3 +5 +3 F A A+ +3 C+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 13 28 Georgia L 65 - 84 32% -1  6 - 4 -4 -7 D- C- C +4 B+ D+ A+
 Wed, Dec 17 318 Alabama St. W 88 - 51 97% +21  7 - 4 +25 +9 C+ D- A+ +16 A+ A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 33 Clemson L 65 - 68 34% -13  7 - 5 +11 +4 C A- C +7 C A B+
 Mon, Dec 29 167 Lipscomb W 89 - 62 89% +16  8 - 5 +23 +13 B- A+ A+ +10 A- C- A-
 Sat, Jan 3 4 Houston L 60 - 67 21% +1  8 - 6 0 - 1 +11 +2 A- D C +9 A- C+ C+
 Tue, Jan 6 56 @West Virginia L 60 - 62 39% -3  8 - 7 0 - 2 +11 +1 C C A +9 D- A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 49 @Central Florida L 72 - 73 35% -1  8 - 8 0 - 3 +13 +8 D+ A+ A+ +5 D B+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 82 Colorado W 77 - 68 71% +13  9 - 8 1 - 3 +13 +1 B- F B +12 B+ C+ A+
 Sat, Jan 17 7 Iowa St. W 79 - 70 24% +7  10 - 8 2 - 3 +26 +20 A B+ A+ +7 A+ B- A-
 Wed, Jan 21 2 @Arizona L 51 - 77 6% -7  10 - 9 2 - 4 +1 -4 F+ C+ F+ +3 A+ D F
 Sat, Jan 24 80 @Arizona St. L 68 - 82 48% -4  10 - 10 2 - 5 -4 -1 C- D D -2 C- B- C+
 Wed, Jan 28 45 Baylor W 75 - 74 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 4 @Houston L 60 - 74 9%
 Thu, Feb 5 56 West Virginia W 66 - 63 61%
 Sun, Feb 8 49 Central Florida W 75 - 73 58%
 Wed, Feb 11 88 @Kansas St. W 75 - 74 52%
 Sun, Feb 15 104 Utah W 78 - 70 78%
 Sat, Feb 21 17 @Kansas L 64 - 75 15%
 Tue, Feb 24 15 @Texas Tech L 67 - 78 14%
 Sat, Feb 28 63 Oklahoma St. W 79 - 75 66%
 Tue, Mar 3 14 BYU L 71 - 77 30%
 Sat, Mar 7 44 @TCU L 66 - 71 34%
Totals 15 - 16 7 - 11 +10 +0 C C C+ +10 B+ B B+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.2 4th
5th 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.6 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.4 0.0 1.9 6th
7th 0.5 2.6 1.5 0.1 4.6 7th
8th 0.5 4.3 4.5 0.5 0.0 9.8 8th
9th 0.3 5.2 8.3 2.0 0.1 15.9 9th
10th 0.2 4.6 11.7 4.1 0.1 20.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.8 10.0 5.3 0.3 17.4 11th
12th 0.3 5.4 5.9 0.7 0.0 12.2 12th
13th 0.0 1.6 5.3 1.2 0.0 8.1 13th
14th 0.0 0.3 3.1 1.5 0.0 4.9 14th
15th 0.1 0.9 1.6 0.2 2.7 15th
16th 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.1 16th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.7 14.3 22.0 23.3 17.5 9.6 3.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0%
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.0% 0.0
12-6 0.2% 96.8% 3.2% 93.5% 8.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 96.7%
11-7 0.9% 78.6% 78.6% 9.3 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.2 78.6%
10-8 3.4% 44.3% 44.3% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.9 44.3%
9-9 9.6% 17.1% 0.3% 16.8% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.1 7.9 16.8%
8-10 17.5% 2.4% 0.5% 1.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.0 17.1 2.0%
7-11 23.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 10.7 0.0 0.0 23.2 0.1%
6-12 22.0% 22.0
5-13 14.3% 14.3
4-14 6.7% 6.7
3-15 1.9% 1.9
2-16 0.3% 0.3
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.5% 0.2% 4.3% 10.3 95.5 4.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%