Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +7.4 #80
Expected Predictive Rating +8.7 #70
Pace 72.6 #81
Improvement -0.2 #191

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #63 B B- B- B+ C
Defense #118 C C B C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #183 1.30 #47 +2.7 #94
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #182 0.74 #203 -0.3 #188
Three Pointers 41% #173 1.12 #55 +2.3 #105
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #59 +4.7 #58
Freethrows 0.36 #33 74% #113 0.27 #29
Second Chance 31.8% #147 1.16 #47 0.37 #75
Turnovers 14.6% #75
Total Offense +5.8 #63

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #261 1.12 #124 +2.3 #99
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #154 0.75 #160 -0.2 #196
Three Pointers 43% #117 1.02 #189 -1.1 #232
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #148 +1.0 #147
Freethrows 0.30 #181 76% #340 0.23 #231
Second Chance 30.8% #192 1.04 #174 0.32 #187
Turnovers 19.2% #46
Total Defense +1.6 #118

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #191 -0.6% #115
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.0% #51 -1.4% #158
Possession Length 15.3 #28 17.5 #208
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.28 #8 0.19 #257
Improvement +0.6 #146 -0.8 #235

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 2.5% 9.4% 1.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 2.5% 9.4% 1.7%
Average Seed 10.5 10.3 10.6
.500 or above 22.6% 47.6% 19.9%
.500 or above in Conference 1.8% 7.1% 1.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 15.5% 4.7% 16.7%
First Four1.6% 5.4% 1.2%
First Round1.5% 5.8% 1.0%
Second Round0.5% 2.0% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.4% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.2% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Arizona (Home) - 9.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 80 - 8
Quad 1b2 - 43 - 12
Quad 25 - 38 - 15
Quad 33 - 111 - 17
Quad 44 - 115 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 282 Southern Utah W 81 - 64 94% +11  1 - 0 +7 +1 B+ D F +5 A+ D B+
 Sun, Nov 9 223 Utah Tech W 81 - 66 90% +11  2 - 0 +8 +3 D+ A- A +5 B+ D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 11 Gonzaga L 65 - 77 19% -7  2 - 1 +5 +0 C B+ A+ +4 A B A+
 Mon, Nov 17 269 Georgia St. W 75 - 62 93% -1  3 - 1 +4 -1 B F B +5 D+ B+ A+
 Thu, Nov 20 99 @Hawaii W 83 - 76 46% -2  4 - 1 +15 +12 A- D+ A+ +3 C C A-
 Mon, Nov 24 32 Texas W 87 - 86 25% -2  5 - 1 +15 +12 A A- C +3 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 25 138 Washington St. W 100 - 94 72% -2  6 - 1 +7 +24 A+ A+ C+ -17 D- F D
 Wed, Nov 26 48 USC L 75 - 88 35% -4  6 - 2 -2 +13 A C- C -15 F F B
 Sat, Dec 6 52 Oklahoma W 86 - 70 40% +16  7 - 2 +26 +12 A- A+ C +13 A+ B+ A-
 Tue, Dec 9 313 Northern Arizona W 73 - 48 95% +12  8 - 2 +13 -2 C- D+ D- +17 A+ A+ B
 Sat, Dec 13 50 Santa Clara W 82 - 79 38% -6  9 - 2 +14 +10 A+ B+ C- +3 B+ A- A
 Wed, Dec 17 37 @UCLA L 77 - 90 20% -9  9 - 3 +3 +11 D- B+ A+ -7 C- B+ D-
 Sun, Dec 21 194 Oregon St. L 75 - 78 88% +1  9 - 4 -8 +3 D+ D C+ -11 F+ A- C
 Sat, Jan 3 82 Colorado L 89 - 95 62% -6  9 - 5 0 - 1 -2 +4 C C D+ -6 C+ D A-
 Wed, Jan 7 14 @BYU L 76 - 104 10% -17  9 - 6 0 - 2 -6 +5 C- C+ D -9 F B+ A+
 Sat, Jan 10 88 Kansas St. W 87 - 84 65% +0  10 - 6 1 - 2 +6 +8 D+ A+ C- -2 A+ D C
 Wed, Jan 14 2 @Arizona L 82 - 89 4% -3  10 - 7 1 - 3 +20 +22 A+ C A+ -2 B D- C
 Sun, Jan 18 4 @Houston L 73 - 103 7% -22  10 - 8 1 - 4 -6 +12 C+ A+ C- -17 F F B-
 Wed, Jan 21 56 West Virginia L 63 - 75 52% +1  10 - 9 1 - 5 -5 -0 B+ C+ D -6 D- C A
 Sat, Jan 24 55 Cincinnati W 82 - 68 52% +4  11 - 9 2 - 5 +21 +18 A+ B A +3 B- B A+
 Tue, Jan 27 49 @Central Florida L 76 - 79 27% +2  11 - 10 2 - 6 +11 +9 A- D+ B+ +2 A+ C- D
 Sat, Jan 31 2 Arizona L 75 - 89 10%
 Wed, Feb 4 104 @Utah L 82 - 83 48%
 Sat, Feb 7 82 @Colorado L 80 - 83 40%
 Tue, Feb 10 63 Oklahoma St. W 87 - 85 56%
 Tue, Feb 17 15 Texas Tech L 76 - 84 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 45 @Baylor L 79 - 86 25%
 Tue, Feb 24 44 @TCU L 73 - 80 25%
 Sat, Feb 28 104 Utah W 85 - 79 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 17 Kansas L 73 - 81 24%
 Sat, Mar 7 7 @Iowa St. L 71 - 87 7%
Totals 14 - 17 5 - 13 +7 +6 B B- B- +2 C C B




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.6 7th
8th 0.2 1.1 0.7 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.3 2.5 0.3 0.0 5.4 9th
10th 0.1 3.3 6.2 1.4 0.0 11.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.9 9.1 3.9 0.1 15.1 11th
12th 0.4 8.4 7.4 0.6 16.9 12th
13th 0.0 3.8 11.0 2.0 0.0 16.8 13th
14th 1.2 9.5 4.2 0.1 15.1 14th
15th 0.4 4.9 5.2 0.4 10.9 15th
16th 1.7 3.4 0.8 0.0 6.0 16th
Total 2.1 9.5 19.8 26.0 22.2 13.3 5.3 1.5 0.3 0.1 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.3% 86.3% 86.3% 9.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 86.3%
9-9 1.5% 54.5% 54.5% 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 54.5%
8-10 5.3% 20.5% 0.2% 20.3% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.0 4.2 20.3%
7-11 13.3% 2.0% 2.0% 11.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.0 13.0 2.0%
6-12 22.2% 0.2% 0.2% 11.0 0.0 22.2 0.2%
5-13 26.0% 26.0
4-14 19.8% 19.8
3-15 9.5% 9.5
2-16 2.1% 2.1
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 2.5% 0.0% 2.5% 10.5 97.5 2.5%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%