Arizona St.
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.1#61
Expected Predictive Rating+15.8#27
Pace70.8#154
Improvement+3.0#25

Offense
Total Offense+5.8#61
First Shot+5.3#53
After Offensive Rebound+0.5#148
Layup/Dunks+0.4#162
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.3#54
Freethrows+2.1#72
Improvement+1.0#91

Defense
Total Defense+3.3#75
First Shot+2.7#88
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#141
Layups/Dunks+3.5#63
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#111
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#234
Freethrows-0.6#222
Improvement+2.0#53
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.7% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 4.5% 9.3% 3.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 36.0% 52.8% 31.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 35.9% 52.6% 30.9%
Average Seed 8.8 8.4 9.0
.500 or above 76.4% 90.4% 72.2%
.500 or above in Conference 28.7% 35.7% 26.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.3% 4.9% 8.0%
First Four8.6% 9.6% 8.3%
First Round31.4% 47.5% 26.6%
Second Round13.6% 21.2% 11.3%
Sweet Sixteen2.7% 4.8% 2.1%
Elite Eight0.8% 1.4% 0.6%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UCLA (Away) - 23.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 81 - 8
Quad 1b3 - 34 - 11
Quad 25 - 29 - 14
Quad 34 - 113 - 15
Quad 45 - 018 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 318 Southern Utah W 81-64 97%     1 - 0 +4.7 -0.3 +4.4
  Sun, Nov 9 262 Utah Tech W 81-66 94%     2 - 0 +6.5 +3.8 +2.4
  Fri, Nov 14 5 Gonzaga L 65-77 18%     2 - 1 +6.8 +0.8 +5.9
  Mon, Nov 17 334 Georgia St. W 75-62 97%     3 - 1 -0.6 -3.6 +2.7
  Thu, Nov 20 111 @Hawaii W 83-76 60%     4 - 1 +13.5 +11.4 +1.5
  Mon, Nov 24 41 Texas W 87-86 39%     5 - 1 +12.9 +11.9 +0.9
  Tue, Nov 25 165 Washington St. W 100-94 82%     6 - 1 +5.6 +23.1 -17.7
  Wed, Nov 26 34 USC L 75-88 35%     6 - 2 +0.0 +11.1 -11.9
  Sat, Dec 6 44 Oklahoma W 86-70 42%     7 - 2 +27.3 +12.7 +14.0
  Tue, Dec 9 270 Northern Arizona W 73-48 94%     8 - 2 +16.2 +2.0 +16.1
  Sat, Dec 13 73 Santa Clara W 82-79 55%     9 - 2 +10.7 +8.3 +2.3
  Wed, Dec 17 30 @UCLA L 69-77 23%    
  Sun, Dec 21 157 Oregon St. W 78-66 87%    
  Sat, Jan 3 62 Colorado W 81-78 62%    
  Wed, Jan 7 9 @BYU L 70-83 11%    
  Sat, Jan 10 67 Kansas St. W 84-80 64%    
  Wed, Jan 14 3 @Arizona L 71-87 7%    
  Sun, Jan 18 8 @Houston L 62-76 10%    
  Wed, Jan 21 63 West Virginia W 72-68 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 78 Cincinnati W 76-71 66%    
  Tue, Jan 27 57 @Central Florida L 80-83 38%    
  Sat, Jan 31 3 Arizona L 74-84 18%    
  Wed, Feb 4 120 @Utah W 80-77 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 62 @Colorado L 78-81 40%    
  Tue, Feb 10 53 Oklahoma St. W 84-82 57%    
  Tue, Feb 17 24 Texas Tech L 75-78 40%    
  Sat, Feb 21 32 @Baylor L 77-84 26%    
  Tue, Feb 24 45 @TCU L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Feb 28 120 Utah W 83-74 79%    
  Tue, Mar 3 17 Kansas L 70-75 34%    
  Sat, Mar 7 4 @Iowa St. L 69-85 8%    
Projected Record 17 - 14 7 - 11




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.4 0.1 1.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.2 0.0 2.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 4.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 3.2 1.4 0.1 6.1 6th
7th 1.0 4.2 2.6 0.3 0.0 8.1 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 4.6 0.8 0.0 9.5 8th
9th 0.1 2.4 5.7 1.9 0.1 10.2 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 5.7 3.7 0.3 10.7 10th
11th 0.3 4.0 5.2 1.0 0.0 10.4 11th
12th 0.1 2.1 6.1 2.1 0.1 10.4 12th
13th 0.0 0.9 4.5 3.6 0.3 9.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.7 0.7 0.0 8.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.7 0.9 0.0 5.8 15th
16th 0.1 0.3 1.2 1.3 0.6 0.0 3.5 16th
Total 0.1 0.3 1.6 3.5 7.4 11.6 15.5 16.1 15.2 12.4 8.2 4.6 2.3 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
15-3 62.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 17.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.0% 0.0
15-3 0.1% 100.0% 20.8% 79.2% 3.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.3% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 4.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
13-5 0.9% 100.0% 2.7% 97.3% 5.2 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 2.3% 99.7% 2.2% 97.5% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.7%
11-7 4.6% 97.6% 1.1% 96.5% 7.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.1 97.6%
10-8 8.2% 93.6% 0.6% 93.0% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.2 2.0 1.0 0.3 0.5 93.6%
9-9 12.4% 79.0% 0.2% 78.8% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 3.0 2.8 1.3 0.0 2.6 79.0%
8-10 15.2% 47.4% 0.2% 47.2% 10.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 3.3 0.2 8.0 47.3%
7-11 16.1% 17.9% 17.9% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.1 0.2 0.0 13.2 17.9%
6-12 15.5% 2.9% 0.0% 2.9% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 15.1 2.9%
5-13 11.6% 0.3% 0.3% 11.1 0.0 0.0 11.6 0.3%
4-14 7.4% 0.0% 0.0% 12.0 0.0 7.4
3-15 3.5% 3.5
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 36.0% 0.3% 35.8% 8.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.5 4.3 5.7 6.8 6.8 7.4 0.5 0.0 64.0 35.9%