BYU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +18.6 #14
Expected Predictive Rating +20.0 #13
Pace 72.2 #89
Improvement -2.1 #286

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #10 B A B+ B- C-
Defense #20 A- C+ C+ A- A+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #293 1.39 #8 +1.7 #113
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #149 0.83 #78 +1.4 #105
Three Pointers 43% #137 1.06 #120 +2.2 #114
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #50 +5.2 #50
Freethrows 0.32 #126 75% #78 0.24 #110
Second Chance 38.1% #14 1.23 #17 0.47 #8
Turnovers 13.7% #32
Total Offense +10.9 #10

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 27% #358 1.12 #125 +7.1 #12
2 Pt. Jumpers 31% #6 0.64 #22 -2.2 #333
Three Pointers 42% #166 0.86 #20 +3.1 #64
1st FG Attempt 0.86 #9 +8.0 #8
Freethrows 0.22 #12 70% #85 0.16 #14
Second Chance 26.8% #55 1.14 #303 0.31 #139
Turnovers 17.2% #123
Total Defense +7.7 #20

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -0.9% #249 -4.3% #4
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 11.2% #32 -11.8% #21
Possession Length 15.2 #23 18.6 #334
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.26 #23 0.14 #70
Improvement -0.9 #225 -1.2 #256

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.4% 0.7% 0.1%
#1 Seed 4.1% 7.0% 2.0%
Top 2 Seed 16.2% 25.1% 9.9%
Top 4 Seed 62.8% 76.9% 52.8%
Top 6 Seed 93.3% 97.8% 90.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 99.9% 100.0% 99.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 99.8% 100.0% 99.8%
Average Seed 4.1 3.5 4.5
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 97.5% 99.4% 96.2%
Conference Champion 3.6% 6.7% 1.3%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.0% 0.3%
First Round99.8% 100.0% 99.7%
Second Round89.4% 92.8% 87.0%
Sweet Sixteen52.8% 58.4% 48.8%
Elite Eight24.8% 29.0% 21.8%
Final Four11.2% 13.3% 9.8%
Championship Game5.0% 6.1% 4.2%
National Champion2.0% 2.6% 1.5%

Next Game: Kansas (Away) - 41.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a3 - 63 - 6
Quad 1b6 - 110 - 8
Quad 26 - 016 - 8
Quad 34 - 020 - 8
Quad 45 - 025 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 34 Villanova W 71 - 66 67% +6  1 - 0 +19 +6 C- D+ A+ +13 A+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 8 326 Holy Cross W 98 - 53 99% +28  2 - 0 +32 +16 A+ F A+ +14 A+ C- B+
 Tue, Nov 11 297 Delaware W 85 - 68 99% -0  3 - 0 +6 +21 C A+ B -12 D+ C F
 Sat, Nov 15 9 Connecticut L 84 - 86 44% -9  3 - 1 +18 +17 A+ A+ C +1 F C A+
 Fri, Nov 21 38 Wisconsin W 98 - 70 69% +12  4 - 1 +41 +24 B+ A A+ +16 A+ B+ B+
 Thu, Nov 27 39 Miami (FL) W 72 - 62 71% +3  5 - 1 +23 +7 B C C+ +16 A+ C+ C-
 Fri, Nov 28 86 Dayton W 83 - 79 87% -0  6 - 1 +11 +11 A C+ B -0 C- B- B-
 Wed, Dec 3 139 California Baptist W 66 - 44 94% +18  7 - 1 +23 +28 A+ A+ A +6 A+ C+ F
 Tue, Dec 9 33 Clemson W 67 - 64 66% -5  8 - 1 +17 +13 D+ A+ B+ +4 A+ D- A+
 Sat, Dec 13 291 UC Riverside W 100 - 53 99% +14  9 - 1 +37 +16 A+ D+ C+ +18 A+ C+ A+
 Tue, Dec 16 131 Pacific W 93 - 57 96% +18  10 - 1 +35 +17 B- A+ B +17 A+ D A+
 Fri, Dec 19 252 Abilene Christian W 85 - 67 98% +5  11 - 1 +10 +8 B+ A+ F +1 A- F B+
 Mon, Dec 22 242 Eastern Washington W 109 - 81 98% +9  12 - 1 +21 +24 A+ A A+ -5 C F C
 Sat, Jan 3 88 @Kansas St. W 83 - 73 81% +6  13 - 1 1 - 0 +19 +6 C A+ F +12 A+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 7 80 Arizona St. W 104 - 76 90% +17  14 - 1 2 - 0 +32 +21 A+ B- D+ +9 A+ B- A
 Sat, Jan 10 104 @Utah W 89 - 84 85% +4  15 - 1 3 - 0 +13 +13 C A+ C -1 A- F+ D+
 Wed, Jan 14 44 TCU W 76 - 70 83% -0  16 - 1 4 - 0 +15 +10 F A+ A+ +5 A- A- D
 Sat, Jan 17 15 @Texas Tech L 71 - 84 40% -1  16 - 2 4 - 1 +8 +6 C B+ C +2 B B- C+
 Sat, Jan 24 104 Utah W 91 - 78 93% +6  17 - 2 5 - 1 +15 +24 B A+ B -8 D- A+ F
 Mon, Jan 26 2 Arizona L 83 - 86 40% -9  17 - 3 5 - 2 +18 +15 B B B- +4 C A+ B+
 Sat, Jan 31 17 @Kansas L 75 - 77 41%
 Wed, Feb 4 63 @Oklahoma St. W 88 - 81 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 4 Houston W 74 - 73 51%
 Tue, Feb 10 45 @Baylor W 84 - 80 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 82 Colorado W 88 - 74 91%
 Wed, Feb 18 2 @Arizona L 77 - 86 21%
 Sat, Feb 21 7 Iowa St. W 78 - 77 55%
 Tue, Feb 24 49 Central Florida W 87 - 76 85%
 Sat, Feb 28 56 @West Virginia W 74 - 68 70%
 Tue, Mar 3 55 @Cincinnati W 77 - 71 70%
 Sat, Mar 7 15 Texas Tech W 81 - 78 63%
Totals 24 - 7 12 - 6 +19 +11 B A B+ +8 A- C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.6 3.6 1st
2nd 0.2 2.6 6.4 2.2 0.1 11.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 8.8 3.8 0.1 15.3 3rd
4th 0.0 1.8 9.3 7.0 0.4 0.0 18.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.2 8.1 9.3 1.1 19.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.5 5.0 8.1 1.8 0.0 15.4 6th
7th 0.2 2.6 5.1 1.9 0.1 9.8 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 2.3 1.0 0.1 0.0 4.1 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 0.6 0.0 1.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 12th
13th 13th
14th 14th
15th 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 2.0 6.0 12.3 19.9 23.1 19.6 11.5 4.4 0.7 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2 91.5% 0.6    0.4 0.2
15-3 45.8% 2.0    0.5 1.2 0.3 0.0
14-4 8.0% 0.9    0.1 0.2 0.4 0.2 0.1
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.6% 3.6 0.9 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2 0.7% 100.0% 23.1% 76.9% 1.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 100.0%
15-3 4.4% 100.0% 19.4% 80.6% 1.9 1.3 2.1 0.9 0.1 100.0%
14-4 11.5% 100.0% 16.4% 83.6% 2.5 1.5 4.0 4.5 1.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 19.6% 100.0% 11.2% 88.8% 3.2 0.8 4.0 7.8 5.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
12-6 23.1% 100.0% 6.9% 93.1% 3.9 0.1 1.4 6.3 9.2 5.1 0.9 0.0 100.0%
11-7 19.9% 100.0% 4.8% 95.2% 4.6 0.0 0.3 2.3 6.1 7.4 3.3 0.5 0.0 100.0%
10-8 12.3% 100.0% 3.4% 96.6% 5.4 0.0 0.3 1.7 4.4 4.3 1.4 0.2 100.0%
9-9 6.0% 99.8% 2.9% 96.9% 6.3 0.0 0.2 1.1 2.2 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0 99.8%
8-10 2.0% 98.0% 4.1% 93.9% 7.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 97.9%
7-11 0.5% 87.8% 87.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 87.8%
6-12 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
5-13 0.0% 0.0
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 99.9% 8.3% 91.6% 4.1 0.1 99.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 80.0 20.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 1.6 50.0 42.3 7.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2% 100.0% 1.8 38.3 44.7 17.0