Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.5#57
Expected Predictive Rating+16.6#24
Pace75.0#49
Improvement+1.6#74

Offense
Total Offense+7.2#44
First Shot+4.7#66
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#47
Layup/Dunks+6.9#16
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.4#257
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.5#234
Freethrows+0.7#135
Improvement+0.3#148

Defense
Total Defense+2.3#101
First Shot-0.1#175
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#36
Layups/Dunks+3.9#56
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#60
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#252
Freethrows-3.9#350
Improvement+1.3#84
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.1% 1.2% 0.4%
Top 6 Seed 5.6% 6.0% 2.1%
NCAA Tourney Bid 39.3% 41.2% 22.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 39.0% 40.9% 22.8%
Average Seed 8.7 8.7 9.1
.500 or above 84.9% 87.2% 65.3%
.500 or above in Conference 35.4% 36.8% 24.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 7.2% 6.6% 12.4%
First Four8.5% 8.7% 6.0%
First Round34.7% 36.4% 19.5%
Second Round15.8% 16.7% 8.4%
Sweet Sixteen3.5% 3.7% 1.4%
Elite Eight1.0% 1.1% 0.4%
Final Four0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Mercer (Home) - 89.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a1 - 61 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 33 - 9
Quad 25 - 38 - 12
Quad 35 - 013 - 12
Quad 45 - 018 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 115 Hofstra W 82-78 81%     1 - 0 +4.3 +6.5 -2.3
  Sat, Nov 8 11 Vanderbilt L 93-105 29%     1 - 1 +3.3 +19.7 -15.8
  Tue, Nov 11 341 Florida A&M W 97-60 98%     2 - 1 +22.6 +12.0 +8.3
  Fri, Nov 14 49 @Texas A&M W 86-74 34%     3 - 1 +25.8 +14.0 +11.1
  Mon, Nov 17 149 Oakland W 87-83 86%     4 - 1 +1.7 +5.8 -4.3
  Thu, Nov 20 107 Pittsburgh W 77-67 71%     5 - 1 +13.8 +13.1 +1.9
  Tue, Nov 25 168 Quinnipiac W 102-91 89%     6 - 1 +7.2 +18.2 -12.1
  Sat, Nov 29 330 VMI W 82-57 97%     7 - 1 +11.7 +3.7 +8.6
  Sun, Dec 7 139 Towson W 86-61 85%     8 - 1 +23.5 +20.3 +5.5
  Wed, Dec 17 169 Mercer W 90-77 90%    
  Sat, Dec 20 181 Florida Gulf Coast W 89-75 90%    
  Sat, Jan 3 17 Kansas L 74-78 34%    
  Tue, Jan 6 53 @Oklahoma St. L 85-89 36%    
  Sun, Jan 11 78 Cincinnati W 80-75 68%    
  Wed, Jan 14 67 @Kansas St. L 85-87 44%    
  Sat, Jan 17 3 Arizona L 78-88 18%    
  Tue, Jan 20 4 @Iowa St. L 73-88 8%    
  Sat, Jan 24 62 @Colorado L 82-84 42%    
  Tue, Jan 27 61 Arizona St. W 83-80 62%    
  Sat, Jan 31 24 Texas Tech L 79-81 41%    
  Wed, Feb 4 8 @Houston L 66-79 12%    
  Sun, Feb 8 78 @Cincinnati L 77-78 46%    
  Sat, Feb 14 63 West Virginia W 75-71 64%    
  Tue, Feb 17 45 TCU W 79-77 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 120 @Utah W 84-81 61%    
  Tue, Feb 24 9 @BYU L 73-86 13%    
  Sat, Feb 28 32 Baylor L 84-85 47%    
  Tue, Mar 3 53 Oklahoma St. W 88-86 58%    
  Fri, Mar 6 63 @West Virginia L 72-74 43%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.7 2.8 1.1 0.1 5.9 5th
6th 0.1 1.4 3.9 2.0 0.2 0.0 7.6 6th
7th 0.0 1.0 4.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.4 3.7 4.4 1.0 0.0 9.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.3 5.6 1.8 0.1 9.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.9 3.2 0.2 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 3.4 4.7 0.8 0.0 9.0 11th
12th 0.1 1.6 5.0 1.8 0.0 8.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.8 3.9 3.0 0.3 0.0 8.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.5 2.6 3.4 0.6 0.0 7.1 14th
15th 0.1 0.5 2.0 2.8 1.0 0.0 6.3 15th
16th 0.1 0.5 1.1 1.3 0.5 0.0 3.6 16th
Total 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.8 6.8 10.0 12.9 14.4 14.4 12.3 9.8 6.6 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-2 88.9% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 51.5% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 14.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.1% 100.0% 3.7% 96.3% 2.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.2% 100.0% 7.4% 92.6% 3.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 0.8% 99.6% 4.9% 94.7% 4.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
13-5 1.8% 99.6% 3.6% 96.0% 5.7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-6 3.8% 98.8% 2.3% 96.5% 6.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 98.7%
11-7 6.6% 95.5% 1.1% 94.4% 7.7 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.4 1.8 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.3 95.5%
10-8 9.8% 88.4% 0.2% 88.2% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 2.1 2.8 1.9 0.5 1.1 88.4%
9-9 12.3% 73.9% 0.2% 73.6% 9.5 0.0 0.3 1.3 2.5 3.3 1.6 0.0 3.2 73.8%
8-10 14.4% 42.5% 0.2% 42.3% 10.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 2.0 3.2 0.1 0.0 8.3 42.4%
7-11 14.4% 14.2% 0.1% 14.1% 10.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.5 0.2 12.4 14.1%
6-12 12.9% 2.8% 0.1% 2.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.1 12.5 2.6%
5-13 10.0% 0.1% 0.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 10.0 0.1%
4-14 6.8% 6.8
3-15 3.8% 3.8
2-16 1.6% 1.6
1-17 0.5% 0.5
0-18 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 39.3% 0.4% 38.9% 8.7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.3 6.1 7.7 8.0 7.2 0.4 0.0 60.7 39.0%