Central Florida
Big 12
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +10.8 #49
Expected Predictive Rating +17.1 #21
Pace 73.0 #74
Improvement -0.3 #198

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #48 B A B- C- C
Defense #72 C+ B+ C+ C C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #91 1.24 #91 +3.7 #65
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% #160 0.83 #73 +1.2 #109
Three Pointers 37% #272 1.12 #51 -0.2 #189
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #60 +4.6 #59
Freethrows 0.28 #254 73% #155 0.21 #225
Second Chance 37.2% #25 1.22 #24 0.45 #14
Turnovers 15.0% #89
Total Offense +7.1 #48

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #267 1.07 #73 +3.4 #75
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #178 0.77 #211 -0.2 #193
Three Pointers 44% #90 1.00 #153 -1.1 #229
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #114 +2.2 #114
Freethrows 0.30 #184 73% #202 0.22 #190
Second Chance 24.0% #14 1.03 #156 0.25 #31
Turnovers 17.2% #128
Total Defense +3.7 #72

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.3% #175 -0.4% #128
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 8.7% #59 -3.8% #107
Possession Length 15.3 #25 18.9 #348
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.22 #63 0.14 #79
Improvement -2.0 #289 +1.7 #84

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.3% 0.6% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 5.2% 10.5% 2.5%
NCAA Tourney Bid 75.0% 87.4% 68.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 74.9% 87.3% 68.6%
Average Seed 8.9 8.4 9.3
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 73.5% 88.9% 65.6%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four12.2% 6.8% 15.0%
First Round67.8% 83.5% 59.8%
Second Round26.4% 35.9% 21.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.6% 6.4% 3.7%
Elite Eight1.2% 1.6% 1.0%
Final Four0.3% 0.5% 0.2%
Championship Game0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Texas Tech (Home) - 33.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 62 - 6
Quad 1b2 - 34 - 8
Quad 27 - 211 - 10
Quad 35 - 016 - 10
Quad 45 - 021 - 10


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 128 Hofstra W 82 - 78 86% +1  1 - 0 +3 +3 C A+ F -1 C A+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 12 Vanderbilt L 93 - 105 31% -12  1 - 1 +4 +22 A+ A+ B+ -17 D F F+
 Tue, Nov 11 315 Florida A&M W 97 - 60 97% +22  2 - 1 +25 +14 A+ A+ F +8 C+ A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 14 30 @Texas A&M W 86 - 74 26% -2  3 - 1 +30 +16 A+ C- C- +13 A+ C- A-
 Mon, Nov 17 135 Oakland W 87 - 83 87% +5  4 - 1 +2 +6 C A- C -3 C A- C
 Thu, Nov 20 93 Pittsburgh W 77 - 67 68% +5  5 - 1 +16 +15 C+ A+ C- +2 A- B- A-
 Tue, Nov 25 178 Quinnipiac W 102 - 91 91% +2  6 - 1 +7 +17 B B+ A -12 F A+ D+
 Sat, Nov 29 353 VMI W 82 - 57 99% +9  7 - 1 +9 +2 F D- A+ +7 A- B- B
 Sun, Dec 7 164 Towson W 86 - 61 90% +17  8 - 1 +22 +22 A A+ B +2 C- C- A+
 Wed, Dec 17 154 Mercer W 81 - 63 89% +10  9 - 1 +15 +3 D+ B C+ +12 A+ B+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 231 Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 80 94% +5  10 - 1 +15 +20 A+ A B -6 F A+ A-
 Tue, Dec 23 102 Florida Atlantic W 85 - 80 71% -1  11 - 1 +10 +8 B B+ B- +2 B+ D+ C-
 Sat, Jan 3 17 Kansas W 81 - 75 34% +2  12 - 1 1 - 0 +21 +17 A- A+ A+ +4 A+ B B+
 Tue, Jan 6 63 @Oklahoma St. L 76 - 87 46% -6  12 - 2 1 - 1 +1 -3 F A- A- +5 D- A+ A+
 Sun, Jan 11 55 Cincinnati W 73 - 72 65% +1  13 - 2 2 - 1 +8 +12 A+ A- C -4 B+ F+ F
 Wed, Jan 14 88 @Kansas St. W 82 - 73 55% +7  14 - 2 3 - 1 +18 +9 A C- A +9 A- A C+
 Sat, Jan 17 2 Arizona L 77 - 84 17% -6  14 - 3 3 - 2 +14 +10 C A+ C+ +5 C+ A+ B-
 Tue, Jan 20 7 @Iowa St. L 57 - 87 12% -15  14 - 4 3 - 3 -7 +0 D- A+ F -9 B- F F
 Sat, Jan 24 82 @Colorado W 95 - 86 53% +3  15 - 4 4 - 3 +19 +25 A+ B- C- -6 D A+ C-
 Tue, Jan 27 80 Arizona St. W 79 - 76 73% -2  16 - 4 5 - 3 +7 +7 D A A+ +1 C A+ C
 Sat, Jan 31 15 Texas Tech L 78 - 82 34%
 Wed, Feb 4 4 @Houston L 67 - 80 10%
 Sun, Feb 8 55 @Cincinnati L 73 - 75 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 56 West Virginia W 73 - 69 65%
 Tue, Feb 17 44 TCU W 77 - 75 58%
 Sat, Feb 21 104 @Utah W 84 - 81 61%
 Tue, Feb 24 14 @BYU L 76 - 87 15%
 Sat, Feb 28 45 Baylor W 83 - 81 59%
 Tue, Mar 3 63 Oklahoma St. W 88 - 83 67%
 Fri, Mar 6 56 @West Virginia L 70 - 72 43%
Totals 21 - 9 10 - 8 +11 +7 B A B- +4 C+ B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.2 2.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 2.8 0.9 0.0 4.6 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 4.7 3.7 0.2 9.7 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 6.4 7.8 1.1 0.0 16.3 6th
7th 0.7 7.4 11.1 3.1 0.0 22.3 7th
8th 0.3 5.2 10.7 3.9 0.2 20.4 8th
9th 0.1 2.5 7.8 3.4 0.2 14.0 9th
10th 0.5 3.4 2.0 0.1 6.1 10th
11th 0.0 1.1 1.4 0.1 2.6 11th
12th 0.2 0.7 0.2 1.0 12th
13th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 13th
14th 0.0 0.0 0.0 14th
15th 0.0 0.0 0.0 15th
16th 16th
Total 0.4 2.5 7.7 15.9 22.6 22.6 16.7 8.4 2.6 0.6 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 42.9% 0.0    0.0
14-4 10.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.2% 0.0    0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-4 0.6% 100.0% 1.8% 98.2% 5.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 2.6% 99.4% 2.3% 97.1% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 99.4%
12-6 8.4% 99.0% 0.9% 98.2% 7.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.7 2.4 1.2 0.1 0.1 99.0%
11-7 16.7% 96.2% 0.8% 95.5% 8.2 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.0 5.5 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.6 96.2%
10-8 22.6% 90.1% 0.2% 89.8% 9.0 0.0 0.2 1.2 4.4 7.6 5.6 1.3 2.2 90.0%
9-9 22.6% 78.6% 0.2% 78.4% 9.7 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 4.9 7.5 3.7 0.0 4.8 78.5%
8-10 15.9% 49.0% 0.2% 48.8% 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.4 2.6 4.7 0.1 8.1 48.9%
7-11 7.7% 18.7% 18.7% 10.9 0.0 0.2 1.2 0.1 6.3 18.7%
6-12 2.5% 3.2% 3.2% 11.1 0.1 0.0 2.4 3.2%
5-13 0.4% 0.4
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 75.0% 0.4% 74.6% 8.9 25.0 74.9%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.3%