TCU
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+11.0#45
Expected Predictive Rating+10.0#60
Pace70.8#153
Improvement+1.5#79

Offense
Total Offense+3.2#94
First Shot+1.5#132
After Offensive Rebound+1.7#76
Layup/Dunks+2.8#87
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#248
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#198
Freethrows+0.8#125
Improvement+0.3#151

Defense
Total Defense+7.7#16
First Shot+6.4#26
After Offensive Rebounds+1.3#95
Layups/Dunks+3.2#73
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#126
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#142
Freethrows+1.3#103
Improvement+1.2#97
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 1.6% 1.7% 0.5%
Top 6 Seed 8.0% 8.4% 2.6%
NCAA Tourney Bid 45.3% 46.7% 26.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 44.9% 46.3% 26.5%
Average Seed 8.3 8.2 8.8
.500 or above 82.6% 84.2% 60.5%
.500 or above in Conference 44.5% 45.5% 31.3%
Conference Champion 0.7% 0.8% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 4.5% 4.3% 7.6%
First Four6.0% 6.1% 4.9%
First Round42.3% 43.7% 24.2%
Second Round21.8% 22.6% 11.0%
Sweet Sixteen5.3% 5.5% 2.4%
Elite Eight1.8% 1.8% 0.5%
Final Four0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Incarnate Word (Home) - 93.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 10 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 25 - 9
Quad 24 - 39 - 12
Quad 33 - 112 - 13
Quad 47 - 119 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 245 New Orleans L 74-78 95%     0 - 1 -11.8 -9.3 -2.2
  Thu, Nov 6 363 St. Francis (PA) W 104-63 99%     1 - 1 +22.9 +14.3 +4.6
  Mon, Nov 10 224 Lamar W 78-65 94%     2 - 1 +6.3 +12.2 -4.8
  Fri, Nov 14 1 Michigan L 63-67 12%     2 - 2 +19.9 +3.0 +16.8
  Wed, Nov 19 345 UMKC W 81-45 98%     3 - 2 +21.2 +2.8 +17.8
  Thu, Nov 27 13 Florida W 84-80 25%     4 - 2 +21.9 +14.0 +7.5
  Fri, Nov 28 40 Wisconsin W 74-63 47%     5 - 2 +22.9 +2.3 +20.0
  Fri, Dec 5 55 Notre Dame L 85-87 OT 66%     5 - 3 +4.6 +9.9 -5.2
  Sun, Dec 7 146 @North Texas W 65-55 75%     6 - 3 +13.8 +0.1 +14.2
  Mon, Dec 15 189 Incarnate Word W 79-63 93%    
  Thu, Dec 18 300 Oral Roberts W 86-64 98%    
  Sun, Dec 21 341 Florida A&M W 85-60 99%    
  Mon, Dec 29 316 Jackson St. W 82-59 99%    
  Sat, Jan 3 32 Baylor W 78-77 53%    
  Tue, Jan 6 17 @Kansas L 65-74 21%    
  Sat, Jan 10 3 Arizona L 71-79 22%    
  Wed, Jan 14 9 @BYU L 68-79 15%    
  Sat, Jan 17 120 @Utah W 78-73 67%    
  Tue, Jan 20 53 Oklahoma St. W 82-78 63%    
  Sat, Jan 24 32 @Baylor L 75-80 32%    
  Wed, Jan 28 8 Houston L 63-69 29%    
  Sun, Feb 1 62 @Colorado L 75-76 48%    
  Sat, Feb 7 67 Kansas St. W 82-76 70%    
  Tue, Feb 10 4 Iowa St. L 69-77 24%    
  Sat, Feb 14 53 @Oklahoma St. L 79-81 42%    
  Tue, Feb 17 57 @Central Florida L 77-79 45%    
  Sat, Feb 21 63 West Virginia W 70-65 69%    
  Tue, Feb 24 61 Arizona St. W 77-72 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 67 @Kansas St. L 78-79 49%    
  Tue, Mar 3 24 @Texas Tech L 69-76 27%    
  Sat, Mar 7 78 Cincinnati W 73-67 71%    
Projected Record 18 - 13 8 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.0 1.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.6 0.4 0.0 3.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.2 0.9 0.1 5.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.1 3.4 1.6 0.1 0.0 7.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 4.6 2.7 0.3 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.7 3.5 0.5 9.7 7th
8th 0.4 3.8 4.9 1.0 0.0 10.0 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 5.4 1.9 0.1 9.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 4.8 3.2 0.3 9.0 10th
11th 0.2 3.0 4.5 0.7 0.0 8.4 11th
12th 0.1 1.4 4.4 1.7 0.1 7.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.6 3.1 2.5 0.3 0.0 6.4 13th
14th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.6 0.5 0.0 5.5 14th
15th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.9 0.7 0.0 4.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 2.1 16th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.4 4.9 7.9 11.2 13.6 14.2 13.7 11.5 8.6 5.3 3.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-2 74.5% 0.1    0.1 0.0 0.0
15-3 49.0% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-4 17.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-5 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-6 0.0%
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-2 0.2% 100.0% 7.3% 92.7% 3.2 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 100.0%
15-3 0.5% 100.0% 6.5% 93.5% 4.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
14-4 1.4% 100.0% 6.6% 93.4% 4.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-5 3.3% 99.9% 4.2% 95.7% 5.8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.9%
12-6 5.3% 99.1% 2.8% 96.3% 6.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 1.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.1%
11-7 8.6% 96.6% 1.6% 95.0% 7.7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 2.3 3.0 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.3 96.5%
10-8 11.5% 87.3% 0.8% 86.5% 8.6 0.1 0.3 1.2 3.1 3.2 1.9 0.3 1.5 87.2%
9-9 13.7% 71.9% 0.4% 71.5% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.6 3.0 3.6 1.3 3.9 71.8%
8-10 14.2% 34.4% 0.2% 34.2% 10.3 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.7 2.4 0.1 9.3 34.3%
7-11 13.6% 10.5% 0.1% 10.4% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.0 0.1 12.2 10.4%
6-12 11.2% 1.5% 1.5% 11.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 11.0 1.5%
5-13 7.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 10.0 0.0 7.9 0.0%
4-14 4.9% 4.9
3-15 2.4% 2.4
2-16 1.0% 1.0
1-17 0.3% 0.3
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 45.3% 0.7% 44.6% 8.3 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.1 2.4 3.9 6.4 9.1 8.6 7.8 5.2 0.2 54.7 44.9%