Utah
Big 12
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +4.7 #104
Expected Predictive Rating +3.6 #109
Pace 70.9 #124
Improvement +3.0 #59

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #68 B+ C- B C+ B-
Defense #186 C C D+ B C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #62 1.21 #114 +3.9 #58
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #230 0.72 #222 -1.3 #243
Three Pointers 39% #221 1.24 #4 +3.2 #79
1st FG Attempt 1.13 #39 +5.9 #39
Freethrows 0.31 #176 74% #110 0.23 #148
Second Chance 30.8% #168 0.96 #289 0.30 #221
Turnovers 14.1% #45
Total Offense +5.2 #68

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #69 1.16 #178 -2.5 #259
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #137 0.80 #253 -0.9 #253
Three Pointers 35% #326 1.01 #179 +2.9 #71
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #195 -0.5 #195
Freethrows 0.27 #72 69% #37 0.18 #52
Second Chance 29.5% #135 1.05 #185 0.31 #151
Turnovers 14.8% #284
Total Defense -0.6 #186

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 1.3% #92 0.3% #195
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.9% #43 0.7% #196
Possession Length 17.3 #161 16.6 #65
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #108 0.15 #92
Improvement +3.0 #44 +0.0 #193

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 10.9 10.9 11.0
.500 or above 2.4% 4.5% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 0.5% 0.9% 0.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 40.6% 25.5% 53.3%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oklahoma St. (Home) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 70 - 7
Quad 1b1 - 51 - 12
Quad 24 - 65 - 18
Quad 33 - 17 - 18
Quad 45 - 112 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 249 San Jose St. W 84 - 75 88% +5  1 - 0 +1 +6 B D+ B+ -5 C- B C-
 Sat, Nov 8 215 Weber St. W 92 - 89 OT 85% -3  2 - 0 -3 -2 F B- B- -2 B+ F C
 Mon, Nov 10 326 Holy Cross W 87 - 69 94% +9  3 - 0 +5 +9 B- C- A+ -4 C C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 117 Sam Houston St. W 85 - 79 68% +9  4 - 0 +6 +8 B+ D D -2 B A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 18 218 Purdue Fort Wayne W 85 - 77 85% +9  5 - 0 +2 +13 A+ F B+ -11 D D+ C
 Thu, Nov 20 288 Cal Poly L 85 - 92 91% -7  5 - 1 -17 -7 C F F -9 F C B-
 Tue, Nov 25 71 Grand Canyon L 58 - 68 38% -6  5 - 2 -2 -5 C+ C+ D- +2 A+ A- F
 Wed, Nov 26 64 Mississippi W 75 - 74 35% +3  6 - 2 +10 +12 A+ F D -3 D- D- A-
 Tue, Dec 2 66 @California L 72 - 79 26% -1  6 - 3 +4 +7 B C B -3 C C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 139 California Baptist W 91 - 85 73% +4  7 - 3 +4 +18 B A- B -14 C F C
 Sat, Dec 13 85 Mississippi St. L 74 - 82 42% +6  7 - 4 -1 +6 A F+ F -7 F A+ D-
 Sat, Dec 20 242 Eastern Washington W 101 - 77 87% +11  8 - 4 +17 +22 A+ B A- -6 B C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 47 @Washington L 65 - 74 18% -3  8 - 5 +5 +0 D+ B+ D+ +5 C A+ C
 Sat, Jan 3 2 Arizona L 78 - 97 7% -15  8 - 6 0 - 1 +2 +10 B- B B -6 B- D+ D
 Wed, Jan 7 82 @Colorado L 73 - 85 30% -6  8 - 7 0 - 2 -2 +3 F+ B- A+ -5 C+ C B-
 Sat, Jan 10 14 BYU L 84 - 89 15% -4  8 - 8 0 - 3 +11 +14 B+ B+ A+ -3 B C- C+
 Wed, Jan 14 15 @Texas Tech L 74 - 88 7% -11  8 - 9 0 - 4 +7 +8 B+ D+ C- -0 D+ C- B-
 Sat, Jan 17 44 TCU W 82 - 79 35% +6  9 - 9 1 - 4 +12 +17 A+ B B -5 D A+ D-
 Tue, Jan 20 88 @Kansas St. L 78 - 81 32% -2  9 - 10 1 - 5 +6 +11 A- C- A+ -4 D- A+ C-
 Sat, Jan 24 14 @BYU L 78 - 91 7% -6  9 - 11 1 - 6 +9 +21 A+ F A+ -13 C F D+
 Sat, Jan 31 63 Oklahoma St. L 85 - 86 46%
 Wed, Feb 4 80 Arizona St. W 83 - 82 52%
 Sat, Feb 7 17 @Kansas L 69 - 85 6%
 Tue, Feb 10 4 Houston L 67 - 81 10%
 Sun, Feb 15 55 @Cincinnati L 70 - 78 22%
 Wed, Feb 18 56 @West Virginia L 67 - 75 23%
 Sat, Feb 21 49 Central Florida L 81 - 84 39%
 Tue, Feb 24 7 Iowa St. L 72 - 85 12%
 Sat, Feb 28 80 @Arizona St. L 79 - 85 30%
 Tue, Mar 3 82 Colorado W 82 - 81 52%
 Sat, Mar 7 45 @Baylor L 77 - 87 18%
Totals 12 - 19 4 - 14 +5 +5 B+ C- B -1 C C D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big 12 Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 6th
7th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.9 9th
10th 0.1 1.7 2.5 0.4 4.7 10th
11th 0.0 1.5 4.8 1.2 0.0 7.6 11th
12th 0.4 6.3 3.5 0.2 10.4 12th
13th 0.1 4.1 8.2 0.8 13.3 13th
14th 0.0 2.3 11.0 3.4 0.0 16.8 14th
15th 0.2 2.7 10.6 8.0 0.5 22.0 15th
16th 3.3 9.7 8.3 1.1 0.0 22.4 16th
Total 3.4 12.4 21.3 24.7 20.0 11.1 4.9 1.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 Total



Big 12 Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.1% 0.0 0.1
9-9 0.4% 7.9% 7.9% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.4 7.9%
8-10 1.7% 0.3% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 1.7 0.3%
7-11 4.9% 4.9
6-12 11.1% 11.1
5-13 20.0% 20.0
4-14 24.7% 24.7
3-15 21.3% 21.3
2-16 12.4% 12.4
1-17 3.4% 3.4
0-18
Total 100% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 10.9 99.9 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%