Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
122 UNC Wilmington 24.2%   14   16 - 3 7 - 1 +2.6      +1.4 133 +1.2 127 63.9 310 +5.6 89 +8.1 1
128 Hofstra 17.2%   11 - 8 4 - 4 +1.9      +3.2 95 -1.3 216 63.3 319 +2.2 129 -1.8 6
132 William & Mary 17.8%   12 - 6 5 - 3 +1.7      +0.5 146 +1.2 128 82.0 5 +4.3 99 +0.9 3
162 College of Charleston 12.0%   12 - 8 6 - 2 0.0      +0.1 160 -0.2 170 70.8 129 +1.5 140 +3.4 2
164 Towson 7.5%   10 - 10 4 - 5 -0.4      -2.9 255 +2.5 102 60.9 355 -0.2 164 -3.2 10
185 Monmouth 4.9%   9 - 11 4 - 4 -1.9      -3.2 266 +1.4 123 66.9 234 -3.5 222 -1.8 7
192 Elon 4.7%   10 - 9 4 - 4 -2.0      +2.5 109 -4.5 304 68.4 195 -1.0 188 -2.5 9
201 Drexel 4.0%   9 - 11 4 - 4 -2.6      -3.5 273 +0.9 136 61.1 353 -4.7 236 -0.6 4
206 Campbell 3.0%   7 - 12 3 - 5 -2.8      +0.2 153 -3.1 272 74.3 48 -2.2 208 -3.7 11
234 Hampton 1.9%   8 - 11 4 - 4 -4.2      -3.4 271 -0.8 196 64.5 298 -5.9 253 -2.2 8
236 Stony Brook 1.8%   10 - 9 4 - 4 -4.3      -1.9 217 -2.4 248 63.0 326 -1.4 191 -1.5 5
259 Northeastern 0.7%   6 - 14 2 - 7 -5.3      -0.1 166 -5.2 325 73.5 61 -6.5 269 -8.9 13
292 N.C. A&T 0.2%   7 - 10 2 - 6 -7.5      -3.1 262 -4.3 300 72.4 83 -6.1 262 -8.2 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 234 Hampton 67 122 UNC Wilmington 75   
Sat, Jan 24 128 Hofstra 82 132 William & Mary 89   
Sat, Jan 24 206 Campbell 73 185 Monmouth 88   
Sat, Jan 24 292 N.C. A&T 80 164 Towson 73   
Sat, Jan 24 201 Drexel 83 259 Northeastern 78   
Sat, Jan 24 162 College of Charleston 80 192 Elon 70   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 29 162 College of Charleston 72 128 Hofstra 77 68%   
Thu, Jan 29 164 Towson 64 122 UNC Wilmington 65 50%   
Thu, Jan 29 192 Elon 83 132 William & Mary 84 53%   
Thu, Jan 29 201 Drexel 67 234 Hampton 62 67%   
Thu, Jan 29 206 Campbell 78 236 Stony Brook 73 67%   
Thu, Jan 29 185 Monmouth 77 292 N.C. A&T 69 79%   
Sat, Jan 31 128 Hofstra 71 185 Monmouth 70 53%   
Sat, Jan 31 206 Campbell 82 132 William & Mary 89 76%   
Sat, Jan 31 192 Elon 77 236 Stony Brook 71 69%   
Sat, Jan 31 234 Hampton 60 164 Towson 67 74%   
Sat, Jan 31 162 College of Charleston 82 259 Northeastern 79 59%   
Sat, Jan 31 201 Drexel 74 292 N.C. A&T 66 77%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 1.5 71.5 15.4 7.1 3.1 1.6 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 4.1 8.1 19.7 19.4 16.6 12.3 9.2 5.7 3.9 2.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.0
William & Mary 3.0 19.8 30.9 20.6 11.3 6.6 4.5 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 3.1 21.1 26.9 19.2 12.8 8.3 5.3 3.1 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Towson 6.3 1.1 4.9 9.4 13.2 13.3 13.3 12.6 10.7 8.8 6.9 4.6 1.1 0.1
Monmouth 6.2 1.7 6.6 9.5 12.8 12.6 13.0 11.5 10.7 8.5 6.8 4.5 1.4 0.4
Elon 6.8 1.4 4.7 7.2 9.0 10.9 12.3 13.0 12.3 11.2 9.2 6.3 2.1 0.4
Drexel 6.3 1.1 5.8 9.4 12.5 13.1 13.2 12.0 10.4 8.6 7.1 4.9 1.5 0.4
Campbell 8.0 0.4 1.9 3.8 5.5 7.4 10.0 11.0 12.6 13.5 13.7 12.6 5.4 2.2
Hampton 7.8 0.4 2.6 4.1 6.3 7.9 9.7 11.7 12.7 13.8 13.6 11.1 4.8 1.4
Stony Brook 7.6 0.5 2.4 4.5 7.4 9.3 11.0 11.4 12.5 12.9 12.0 11.1 4.2 0.9
Northeastern 11.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.6 2.8 4.5 8.5 16.0 39.1 25.6
N.C. A&T 11.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.0 2.0 3.2 6.0 11.5 30.3 45.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 14 - 4 23 - 6 0.1 0.8 2.9 7.7 14.9 21.4 23.3 17.9 8.7 2.3
Hofstra 11 - 7 18 - 11 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.9 14.3 22.1 23.8 18.5 9.0 2.0
William & Mary 12 - 6 19 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.8 3.1 7.4 14.5 20.9 23.7 18.0 9.4 2.1
College of Charleston 11 - 7 17 - 13 0.1 0.7 3.2 8.8 15.9 21.4 21.9 16.4 8.5 2.8 0.4
Towson 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.1 1.1 4.2 10.6 19.6 24.1 21.3 13.3 4.9 0.9
Monmouth 9 - 9 14 - 16 0.2 1.3 4.7 11.3 18.5 22.4 20.6 13.2 5.9 1.7 0.2
Elon 9 - 9 15 - 14 0.3 2.1 6.8 14.9 21.7 22.5 17.0 9.7 3.9 1.0 0.1
Drexel 9 - 9 14 - 16 0.2 1.2 4.4 11.4 19.1 23.0 20.3 12.8 5.6 1.7 0.3
Campbell 8 - 10 12 - 17 0.3 1.9 6.2 13.0 20.2 22.1 18.8 11.2 4.8 1.2 0.2
Hampton 8 - 10 12 - 17 0.9 4.7 12.6 20.3 22.7 19.4 12.0 5.4 1.7 0.3 0.0
Stony Brook 8 - 10 14 - 15 0.7 4.1 10.8 18.9 23.2 20.4 13.2 5.9 2.3 0.5 0.1
Northeastern 5 - 13 9 - 20 3.1 11.0 20.8 25.1 20.8 12.0 5.1 1.7 0.2 0.0
N.C. A&T 5 - 13 10 - 17 7.2 18.1 25.3 23.1 14.7 7.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 71.5% 55.3 12.2 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0
Hofstra 8.1% 2.6 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 19.8% 8.9 7.6 2.6 0.6 0.1 0.0
College of Charleston 21.1% 10.5 7.4 2.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Towson 1.1% 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 1.7% 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0
Elon 1.4% 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Drexel 1.1% 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 0.4% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 0.5% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
Northeastern
N.C. A&T


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 24.2% 24.2% 0.0% 14   0.3 5.2 12.2 6.0 0.5 75.8 0.0%
Hofstra 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 0.2 4.0 8.9 3.5 0.5 0.0 82.8 0.0%
William & Mary 17.8% 17.8% 0.0% 0.2 3.5 8.9 4.8 0.5 0.0 82.2 0.0%
College of Charleston 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 3.6 5.9 2.0 0.1 88.0 0.0%
Towson 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.2 2.9 1.8 0.4 92.5 0.0%
Monmouth 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.2 2.4 0.9 95.1 0.0%
Elon 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.7 0.5 95.3 0.0%
Drexel 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.1 1.0 96.0 0.0%
Campbell 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.1 97.0 0.0%
Hampton 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 0.9 98.1 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.4 98.2 0.0%
Northeastern 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 99.3 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9
2nd Round 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 24.2% 0.0% 24.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 17.2% 0.0% 17.2% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 17.8% 0.0% 17.8% 1.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 12.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 7.5% 0.1% 7.5% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 4.9% 0.5% 4.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 4.7% 0.1% 4.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 4.0% 0.4% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 3.0% 0.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 1.9% 0.5% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.8% 0.1% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 0.7% 0.6% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%