Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 UNC Wilmington 23.0%   13   9 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 13 - 5 +3.8      +3.7 88 +0.1 163 62.6 339 +8.2 75 0.0 1
115 Hofstra 20.0%   6 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +3.3      +1.4 129 +1.9 108 65.4 284 +4.9 104 0.0 1
121 William & Mary 18.9%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +3.0      +1.3 133 +1.7 117 83.3 6 +8.5 71 0.0 1
139 Towson 12.7%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +1.5      +0.9 142 +0.6 144 60.3 363 +4.3 110 0.0 1
172 College of Charleston 6.3%   3 - 6 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 9 -1.0      +0.4 155 -1.4 220 66.0 274 -3.5 223 0.0 1
192 Elon 4.2%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.9      +3.0 103 -4.9 332 69.4 188 -1.4 188 0.0 1
197 Stony Brook 3.6%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 -2.4      -1.0 196 -1.4 218 64.1 315 +3.5 123 0.0 1
206 Monmouth 2.9%   4 - 5 0 - 0 14 - 16 8 - 9 -2.9      -1.3 204 -1.5 223 67.8 226 -3.5 225 0.0 1
211 Northeastern 2.6%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 9 -3.2      -3.8 266 +0.5 149 71.7 126 -3.2 215 0.0 1
226 Campbell 2.5%   2 - 5 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 10 -3.7      -1.9 222 -1.8 231 74.0 63 -1.6 192 0.0 1
230 Hampton 2.3%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.9      -3.0 251 -0.9 198 64.5 308 -7.7 282 0.0 1
271 Drexel 0.9%   3 - 6 0 - 0 11 - 19 6 - 12 -5.8      -3.6 260 -2.2 243 63.3 327 -9.0 301 0.0 1
311 N.C. A&T 0.2%   4 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 18 4 - 14 -8.7      -5.3 311 -3.4 287 72.8 88 -6.4 259 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 172 College of Charleston 75 86 South Florida 81   
Fri, Dec 12 311 N.C. A&T 82 343 Maryland Eastern Shore 79   
Sat, Dec 13 115 Hofstra 70 68 Syracuse 69   
Sat, Dec 13 109 UNC Wilmington 73 212 Valparaiso 70   
Sat, Dec 13 230 Hampton 57 299 Howard 61   
Sat, Dec 13 322 Central Michigan 55 197 Stony Brook 78   
Sat, Dec 13 192 Elon 85 326 Northern Illinois 79   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sun, Dec 14 195 Charlotte 67 172 College of Charleston 71 66%   
Sun, Dec 14 305 Fairfield 72 206 Monmouth 74 58%   
Sun, Dec 14 308 Ball St. 68 226 Campbell 75 77%   
Tue, Dec 16 17 Kansas 75 139 Towson 57 95%   
Tue, Dec 16 271 Drexel 71 299 Howard 67 68%   
Tue, Dec 16 311 N.C. A&T 73 281 UNC Greensboro 78 69%   
Wed, Dec 17 206 Monmouth 76 168 Quinnipiac 75 53%   
Wed, Dec 17 192 Elon 78 102 Richmond 81 64%   
Wed, Dec 17 197 Stony Brook 77 329 Albany 66 84%   
Wed, Dec 17 226 Campbell 65 5 Gonzaga 94 99%   
Wed, Dec 17 172 College of Charleston 79 361 The Citadel 63 93%   
Thu, Dec 18 267 Radford 79 121 William & Mary 91 86%   
Thu, Dec 18 230 Hampton 71 316 Jackson St. 65 69%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 2.9 33.4 21.6 15.0 10.6 7.0 4.7 3.1 2.1 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1
Hofstra 3.2 27.6 21.4 15.9 11.4 7.9 5.8 3.9 2.6 1.6 1.1 0.6 0.3 0.1
William & Mary 3.3 28.4 20.3 15.5 11.4 7.9 5.8 3.9 2.8 1.8 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1
Towson 4.2 17.0 16.3 15.2 13.0 10.5 8.5 6.2 4.7 3.3 2.4 1.6 0.9 0.4
College of Charleston 5.9 6.3 8.5 10.4 11.2 11.8 11.1 10.1 8.7 7.4 6.0 4.4 2.8 1.4
Elon 6.8 3.9 5.7 7.5 9.3 10.5 10.8 10.8 10.3 9.3 8.3 6.6 4.5 2.5
Stony Brook 6.9 3.4 5.6 7.1 8.9 10.1 10.7 10.7 9.9 9.4 8.4 7.3 5.6 2.8
Monmouth 7.9 1.4 3.1 4.6 6.5 7.8 9.6 10.6 10.7 11.3 11.0 10.0 8.5 4.9
Northeastern 8.1 1.5 2.8 4.4 6.0 7.6 9.7 9.8 10.8 10.8 11.1 10.5 9.3 5.7
Campbell 7.7 2.2 3.6 5.1 6.8 8.2 9.6 10.3 10.6 10.8 10.1 9.5 8.1 5.3
Hampton 8.0 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.6 9.1 10.0 10.8 11.4 10.9 10.8 8.8 5.8
Drexel 9.3 0.5 1.4 1.9 3.4 4.6 6.2 7.7 9.3 10.7 12.7 13.9 15.9 11.8
N.C. A&T 11.1 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.5 2.2 3.2 4.7 6.2 9.1 13.4 20.7 37.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 13 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.3 8.7 12.1 14.9 16.0 14.7 11.5 7.2 3.1 0.7
Hofstra 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 4.1 6.8 9.8 12.9 15.1 15.5 13.8 9.9 5.8 2.2 0.5
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.4 4.3 6.8 9.8 13.2 14.6 14.9 13.2 10.0 6.0 2.4 0.5
Towson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.4 7.2 10.3 12.9 14.1 14.4 12.6 9.5 5.9 3.0 1.0 0.2
College of Charleston 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.9 2.1 4.0 6.7 9.9 12.6 14.0 14.0 12.3 10.0 6.6 3.8 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.0
Elon 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.5 6.3 9.4 12.3 14.1 14.0 12.7 10.2 7.1 4.2 2.4 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 6.8 9.6 12.8 13.7 13.9 12.1 9.5 6.9 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 8 - 10 0.1 0.4 1.4 3.3 6.5 9.7 12.8 14.5 14.6 12.7 9.9 6.7 4.0 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1
Northeastern 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.8 7.2 10.2 12.5 14.4 14.1 12.6 9.3 6.6 3.9 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.4 3.3 6.1 9.4 11.6 13.9 14.1 12.7 10.2 7.3 4.8 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Hampton 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.5 4.0 7.2 9.9 13.1 14.1 14.3 12.3 9.5 6.5 3.8 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drexel 6 - 12 0.3 1.6 3.9 7.8 11.3 14.0 15.2 14.0 11.8 8.6 5.5 3.1 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 2.3 7.2 12.6 16.0 16.7 14.7 11.6 8.0 5.2 2.9 1.6 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 33.4% 22.1 8.6 2.3 0.4 0.1
Hofstra 27.6% 17.5 7.5 2.2 0.3 0.1
William & Mary 28.4% 18.6 7.2 2.1 0.4 0.1
Towson 17.0% 10.0 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.1
College of Charleston 6.3% 3.3 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.1
Elon 3.9% 2.0 1.2 0.6 0.1 0.1
Stony Brook 3.4% 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 1.4% 0.6 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 1.5% 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Campbell 2.2% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hampton 1.5% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Drexel 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 8.5 9.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 77.0 0.0%
Hofstra 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.4 8.2 7.4 2.5 0.4 0.1 80.0 0.0%
William & Mary 18.9% 18.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 6.9 7.6 2.6 0.4 0.0 81.1 0.0%
Towson 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.2 87.3 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.3% 6.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.1 1.8 0.7 93.7 0.0%
Elon 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.5 1.1 0.5 95.8 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 96.4 0.0%
Monmouth 2.9% 2.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.0 0.8 0.5 97.1 0.0%
Northeastern 2.6% 2.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.8 0.9 0.5 97.4 0.0%
Campbell 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.8 0.5 97.5 0.0%
Hampton 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.9 0.7 97.7 0.0%
Drexel 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 99.1 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 23.0% 0.0% 23.0% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 2.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 18.9% 0.0% 18.9% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 12.7% 0.1% 12.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.3% 0.4% 6.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 4.2% 0.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.6% 0.1% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 2.9% 0.2% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 2.6% 0.3% 2.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.5% 0.4% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 2.3% 0.4% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 0.9% 0.3% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.2% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 98.9 0.0
2nd Round 9.3% 0.1 90.7 9.3
Sweet Sixteen 1.5% 0.0 98.5 1.5
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0