N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -7.5 #292
Expected Predictive Rating -6.1 #262
Pace 72.4 #83
Improvement +1.7 #108

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #262 D+ C D A- D-
Defense #300 D+ B F+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #301 1.12 #228 -3.2 #292
2 Pt. Jumpers 29% #38 0.80 #115 +3.7 #31
Three Pointers 37% #268 0.93 #294 -3.8 #311
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #276 -3.2 #276
Freethrows 0.37 #12 74% #132 0.28 #15
Second Chance 30.9% #167 1.07 #146 0.33 #153
Turnovers 18.5% #305
Total Offense -3.1 #262

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #97 1.15 #171 -1.8 #243
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.83 #300 -0.8 #241
Three Pointers 38% #270 1.15 #334 -0.7 #214
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #281 -3.3 #281
Freethrows 0.34 #288 67% #19 0.23 #219
Second Chance 26.9% #59 0.96 #74 0.26 #45
Turnovers 12.1% #357
Total Defense -4.3 #300

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.7% #328 0.5% #211
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.8% #241 6.0% #292
Possession Length 17.9 #226 16.2 #29
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #94 0.26 #360
Improvement +3.1 #40 -1.5 #275

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.6% 0.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.8 15.7 15.9
.500 or above 1.4% 4.3% 0.7%
.500 or above in Conference 1.0% 3.3% 0.4%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 64.4% 42.0% 70.3%
First Four0.1% 0.3% 0.1%
First Round0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Monmouth (Away) - 20.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 33 - 93 - 13
Quad 47 - 610 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 78 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 6% -14  0 - 1 -8 -1 C F C- -6 D D B
 Mon, Nov 10 359 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 84% +14  1 - 1 +5 -7 D- F+ F +9 C A+ A+
 Tue, Nov 18 356 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 64% +4  2 - 1 -5 +1 C B F -6 D- A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 133 @Davidson L 74 - 90 13% -9  2 - 2 -11 +9 A- D+ C -21 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 172 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 18% -13  2 - 3 -15 -13 F D+ F -3 F+ C- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 342 @NC Central W 69 - 54 55% -1  3 - 3 +6 -10 F C F +16 A+ A+ D-
 Tue, Dec 9 276 Howard L 69 - 73 46% -8  3 - 4 -10 -2 F A+ F+ -9 F A+ B-
 Fri, Dec 12 331 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 72% -2  4 - 4 -11 +5 C B+ D -16 C F F
 Tue, Dec 16 305 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 42% +6  5 - 4 +1 -2 F C- D +3 B C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 122 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 25% +1  5 - 5 0 - 1 -9 -1 C- D- B+ -8 F+ A+ C
 Wed, Dec 31 259 Northeastern L 74 - 85 53% -4  5 - 6 0 - 2 -19 -0 F+ C+ C+ -20 F+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 236 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 28% -4  5 - 7 0 - 3 -2 +12 D+ A+ D+ -14 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 192 Elon L 64 - 69 41% -6  5 - 8 0 - 4 -10 -13 F B+ F+ +3 A B D-
 Thu, Jan 15 132 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 13% -7  5 - 9 0 - 5 -3 +12 A+ C F+ -14 F B- F+
 Mon, Jan 19 234 @Hampton L 61 - 82 27% -5  5 - 10 0 - 6 -22 -6 D- F C+ -18 D+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 128 Hofstra W 79 - 78 27% -5  6 - 10 1 - 6 -0 +8 C- A+ C+ -8 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 24 164 Towson W 80 - 73 35% +4  7 - 10 2 - 6 +4 +7 A+ D+ F -3 D- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 185 @Monmouth L 69 - 78 21%
 Sat, Jan 31 201 @Drexel L 66 - 74 23%
 Thu, Feb 5 162 @College of Charleston L 73 - 83 16%
 Sat, Feb 7 206 Campbell L 80 - 82 44%
 Fri, Feb 13 234 Hampton L 71 - 74 37%
 Thu, Feb 19 162 College of Charleston L 76 - 80 34%
 Sat, Feb 21 192 @Elon L 76 - 84 22%
 Thu, Feb 26 122 @UNC Wilmington L 67 - 80 11%
 Sat, Feb 28 132 William & Mary L 80 - 86 28%
 Tue, Mar 3 206 @Campbell L 77 - 85 24%
Totals 10 - 17 5 - 13 -7 -3 D+ C D -4 D+ B F+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.0 3rd
4th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.0 0.2 5th
6th 0.2 0.4 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.8 0.2 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.6 1.3 0.1 2.0 8th
9th 0.3 2.4 0.5 3.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 2.5 3.1 0.1 6.0 10th
11th 0.2 3.2 6.5 1.4 0.0 11.5 11th
12th 0.3 2.7 9.4 13.1 4.6 0.2 30.3 12th
13th 6.9 15.4 15.6 6.6 0.7 0.0 45.2 13th
Total 7.2 18.1 25.3 23.1 14.7 7.8 2.8 0.8 0.2 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0%
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7 0.0% 0.0
10-8 0.2% 3.0% 3.0% 15.0 0.0 0.2
9-9 0.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.2 0.0 0.0 0.8
8-10 2.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.8
7-11 7.8% 0.6% 0.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 7.8
6-12 14.7% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.6
5-13 23.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 23.1
4-14 25.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 25.2
3-15 18.1% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 18.1
2-16 7.2% 7.2
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 15.8 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 4.7%