N.C. A&T
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -7.4 287
Results Rating -7.6 289
Consistency 0.14 112
Pace 70.4 124
Improvement -0.2 191

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 240 D+ C D B+ D-
Defense D 309 D C+ F+ C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% 285 C 58% 188 -2.1 260
2 Pt. Jumpers 59% 18 C 39% 159 +3.6 33
Three Pointers 35% 300 D 31% 298 -4.5 323
Shot Selection/Accuracy D- -1.4 333 C- -1.6 233
1st FG Attempt D+ 0.96 274
Second Chance C 30.2% 187 C+ 1.07 120 C 0.32 151
Opponents' Steals C- 10.1% 257
Other Turnovers D- 8.8% 337
Turnovers D 18.9% 315
Freethrows B+ 0.35 32 C+ 74% 133 B+ 0.26 35
Total Offense C- -2.6 240

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C 49% 161 D+ 12.3% 263
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots C- 23% 212 C 5.3% 210
Three Pointers D- 76% 328 C+ 0.7% 144
Total D 49% 311 C- 6.2% 253


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% 148 C- 60% 226 +1.4 223
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% 141 D+ 41% 279 +0.9 266
Three Pointers 39% 252 D- 38% 343 +1.2 258
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.0 157 D +3.6 320
1st FG Attempt D 1.09 302
Second Chance B- 28.2% 96 C 1.03 169 C+ 0.29 112
Turnovers from Steals D- 7.0% 339
Other Turnovers D 6.2% 312
Turnovers F+ 13.2% 347
Freethrows C 0.30 189 B+ 69% 31 C+ 0.21 149
Total Defense D -4.8 309

Assists Blocks
Close Shots D- 57% 330 C 11.6% 143
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 32% 309 C 5.2% 146
Three Pointers C- 86% 251 D+ 0.5% 271
Total D 61% 308 C+ 5.9% 147

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 17.5 190 16.6 52
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 135 0.24 356
Consistency 0.13 244 0.12 195
Improvement +2.1 81 -2.3 298

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 287 287 287
Results Rating Rank 289 289 288
Conference Record 4 - 14 4 - 14 4 - 14
Conference Finish 12 12 12
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 40 - 4
Quad 33 - 83 - 12
Quad 46 - 79 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 94 @South Carolina L 72 - 91 7% -14  0% 0 - 1 D -10 D+ -4 C- F C D+ -5 F+ D- B+
 Mon, Nov 10 356 South Carolina St. W 85 - 62 85% +14  87% 1 - 1 C+ +4 F+ -10 F+ D F A +11 C+ A A+
 Tue, Nov 18 350 @Morgan St. W 79 - 73 65% +4  84% 2 - 1 D+ -5 C- -2 C A- F D+ -3 F+ A+ F
 Fri, Nov 28 114 @Davidson L 74 - 90 11% -9  6% 2 - 2 D -10 B+ +8 A D B- F -19 F F F
 Tue, Dec 2 172 @Charlotte L 57 - 74 18% -17  0% 2 - 3 D- -15 F -16 F D F C+ +1 F+ D B-
 Sat, Dec 6 348 @NC Central W 69 - 54 64% -1  30% 3 - 3 C+ +4 F -15 F C- F A+ +18 A+ A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 193 Howard L 69 - 73 30% -8  0% 3 - 4 D+ -6 D+ -2 F A+ D- D+ -3 F A+ C
 Fri, Dec 12 352 Maryland Eastern Shore W 82 - 79 83% -2  33% 4 - 4 D- -15 C +1 D+ B+ D F -16 C- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 297 @UNC Greensboro W 71 - 65 41% +6  90% 5 - 4 C +1 D -5 F C- D+ B+ +6 A- C+ F
 Mon, Dec 29 113 UNC Wilmington L 78 - 87 23% +1  46% 5 - 5 0 - 1 D -9 D+ -3 C- D- A- D -5 D- A+ C+
 Wed, Dec 31 293 Northeastern L 74 - 85 62% -4  1% 5 - 6 0 - 2 F -22 D -4 F B C- F -18 F C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 228 @Stony Brook L 80 - 81 26% -4  13% 5 - 7 0 - 3 C- -2 A- +11 D A+ C- F -12 F C F
 Thu, Jan 8 242 Elon L 64 - 69 52% -6  0% 5 - 8 0 - 4 D- -13 F -15 F A- D- B- +2 B+ B- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 151 @William & Mary L 89 - 97 16% -7  5% 5 - 9 0 - 5 C- -5 B +7 A+ C+ F F -11 F C+ F+
 Mon, Jan 19 268 @Hampton L 61 - 82 34% -5  35% 5 - 10 0 - 6 F -24 F+ -9 D- F C+ F -17 D F F
 Thu, Jan 22 98 Hofstra W 79 - 78 18% -5  25% 6 - 10 1 - 6 C+ +3 B+ +9 C A+ C+ D -6 C+ A- F
 Sat, Jan 24 154 Towson W 80 - 73 32% +4  60% 7 - 10 2 - 6 C+ +4 B- +4 A+ D+ F C -0 D A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 29 171 @Monmouth L 81 - 83 OT 18% +2  60% 7 - 11 2 - 7 C +0 B- +4 F+ A+ D D+ -3 B B- F
 Sat, Jan 31 214 @Drexel L 60 - 61 24% -6  10% 7 - 12 2 - 8 C -1 D- -6 D- F C B+ +5 B- D- D
 Thu, Feb 5 163 @College of Charleston L 62 - 78 16% -5  23% 7 - 13 2 - 9 D- -13 F -12 D- D F C -1 F A B+
 Sat, Feb 7 181 Campbell L 71 - 79 38% -6  3% 7 - 14 2 - 10 D- -12 F+ -8 D+ F A D+ -4 C+ F C-
 Fri, Feb 13 268 Hampton W 71 - 70 45% -4  6% 8 - 14 3 - 10 D+ -5 C- -2 F+ C+ A+ C- -3 D- F B+
 Thu, Feb 19 163 College of Charleston L 61 - 74 33% -11  0% 8 - 15 3 - 11 F+ -16 F+ -9 D- B- F F+ -9 F A+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 242 @Elon W 102 - 82 30% +10  96% 9 - 15 4 - 11 A +18 A+ +27 A+ A+ C F+ -8 C F F
 Thu, Feb 26 113 @UNC Wilmington L 65 - 88 11% -13  8% 9 - 16 4 - 12 F+ -17 C- -2 C+ D- C F -17 D+ F F
 Sat, Feb 28 151 William & Mary L 88 - 91 32% -4  8% 9 - 17 4 - 13 D+ -6 B- +4 A+ C- F F+ -10 C- A- F
 Tue, Mar 3 181 @Campbell L 72 - 90 19% -12  5% 9 - 18 4 - 14 F+ -16 D -5 D D D- F -11 F C C+
 Fri, Mar 6 293 Northeastern L 72 - 88 51% -10  8% 9 - 19 F -24 F -12 F A- F+ F -12 F B D+
Totals 9 - 19 4 - 14 -7 C- -3 C+ C- D- D -5 D C+ B+



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- C C D C- 35% 59% 35% D- D+ C C+ C D B+ C+ B+ D C- D+ D- D 40% 22% 39% C D B- C C+ F+ C B+ C+
1.05 58% 39% 31% -2 -1 0.96 30% 1.1 .32 19% .35 74% .26 1.16 60% 41% 38% +4 0 1.09 28% 1.0 .29 13% .30 69% .25
Nov
4		 South Carolina D+ A F+ B+ B- 35% 45% 20% F C- F+ F F C A B- A D+ C C- F F+ 38% 13% 49% D F+ C F D- B+ C A B-
0.95 68% 28% 36% 0 -3 0.95 19% 0.7 .14 16% .35 73% .25 1.20 60% 43% 42% +7 +1 1.19 29% 1.3 .38 17% .33 71% .24
Nov
10		 South Carolina St. F+ C F F F 60% 10% 29% B+ F+ C- F+ D F A+ C A+ A A B+ F C 29% 42% 29% A- C+ C+ A+ A A+ F A+ D+
1.05 62% 20% 21% -5 +3 0.98 37% 1.0 .37 23% .53 73% .39 0.77 43% 30% 43% -4 -3 0.88 29% 0.6 .17 30% .49 50% .25
Nov
18		 Morgan St. C- A- A+ D+ B 29% 29% 42% F C D- A+ A- F A- A- A+ D+ D- F A+ F+ 41% 25% 34% D F+ A+ A+ A+ F A- B A
1.14 69% 54% 32% +6 -2 1.11 30% 1.8 .52 20% .49 78% .38 1.05 60% 53% 24% -1 0 1.00 14% 0.4 .05 7% .26 71% .19
Nov
28		 Davidson B+ D- A- A+ A 32% 30% 39% D A D- C+ D B- A+ F A+ F D- F+ F F 51% 13% 36% F F D F F F F A F
1.12 50% 46% 47% +7 -2 1.14 23% 1.0 .23 17% .55 60% .33 1.36 65% 50% 44% +10 +2 1.27 33% 1.3 .42 9% .58 57% .33
Dec
2		 Charlotte F F+ B- F F 34% 24% 41% D+ F D- B- D F A+ F+ A+ C+ F A+ F F 41% 11% 48% D+ F+ B- F D B- D B C-
0.87 50% 40% 18% -12 -1 0.76 23% 1.1 .27 20% .55 66% .36 1.13 72% 20% 43% +10 +1 1.25 31% 1.1 .35 20% .36 68% .25
Dec
6		 NC Central F F+ B F F 38% 23% 40% D F C- C C- F A+ C- A+ A+ A- A+ A+ A+ 46% 21% 33% D A+ A A+ A+ D F C F
0.96 53% 44% 25% -6 0 0.90 36% 1.0 .36 29% .69 71% .49 0.75 45% 20% 13% -20 +1 0.63 21% 0.4 .09 15% .49 73% .36
Dec
9		 Howard D+ D+ D+ F F 40% 32% 28% F F A+ B+ A+ D- D B- D+ D+ B- F F F 64% 9% 27% F F C A+ A+ C F A- F
1.01 55% 31% 14% -12 -1 0.76 45% 1.2 .55 22% .28 73% .21 1.07 50% 75% 50% +5 +3 1.18 34% 0.2 .06 21% .52 68% .35
Dec
12		 Maryland Eastern Shore C A F C- C- 31% 22% 47% D- D+ C+ A+ B+ D A+ A A+ F B F A+ D 35% 32% 33% B+ C- D+ F F F D D- D
1.18 71% 20% 33% 0 -1 1.00 34% 1.4 .47 19% .67 82% .55 1.14 50% 61% 21% -2 -2 0.95 33% 1.2 .40 10% .27 76% .21
Dec
16		 UNC Greensboro D B- F D- F 28% 28% 44% F+ F A F C- D+ A- A+ A+ B+ A+ B B- A- 26% 28% 46% B+ A- D A C+ F B A+ A+
1.09 64% 29% 32% -2 -2 0.94 41% 0.8 .31 15% .33 83% .27 1.00 43% 33% 32% -7 -2 0.85 30% 0.9 .26 9% .32 53% .17
Dec
29		 UNC Wilmington D+ F+ A D+ C 32% 33% 35% D C- F A+ D- A- A+ D- A- D A- D F D- 41% 20% 39% D- D- B+ A+ A+ C+ F F F
1.03 50% 47% 30% -2 -2 0.95 14% 1.4 .19 11% .36 71% .25 1.15 48% 40% 45% +3 0 1.08 29% 0.8 .23 16% .55 77% .43
Dec
31		 Northeastern D C+ A- F F+ 33% 28% 40% F F B+ C- B C- A+ C- A+ F C F F F 48% 24% 28% C+ F C- C- C- F F A- F
1.13 64% 50% 24% -1 -1 0.98 38% 1.0 .38 17% .59 72% .42 1.30 58% 58% 43% +9 0 1.20 28% 1.1 .31 11% .46 63% .29
Jan
3		 Stony Brook A- F C- A+ D+ 40% 33% 27% D- D A+ D A+ C- B A+ A+ F C- B+ F F 40% 17% 42% C- F A- F C F C+ F+ C-
1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31 1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19
Jan
8		 Elon F F B- F F 22% 24% 55% F+ F C+ A+ A- D- F A- F B- A A+ F+ A- 56% 8% 36% F+ B+ A- D- B- D- F+ A+ C
0.94 45% 42% 25% -9 -2 0.80 35% 1.4 .48 19% .16 78% .13 1.02 46% 0% 39% -7 +3 0.94 26% 1.1 .29 13% .37 59% .22
Jan
15		 William & Mary B A A+ A+ A+ 41% 24% 35% D+ A+ D- A+ C+ F A+ B- A+ F C- D+ F F 62% 10% 29% F F A- F C+ F+ F B F
1.17 71% 58% 44% +16 0 1.33 24% 1.3 .32 24% .39 74% .29 1.27 63% 40% 53% +11 +3 1.31 20% 1.3 .27 13% .47 71% .33
Jan
19		 Hampton F+ F F+ A+ D- 41% 33% 25% F+ D- D F F C+ F C+ F F F C B+ F 19% 42% 40% A+ D D+ F F F A F B-
0.95 48% 29% 46% -3 -1 0.94 24% 0.6 .13 16% .24 69% .17 1.27 90% 36% 29% +2 -4 0.98 34% 1.2 .42 6% .26 88% .23
Jan
22		 Hofstra B+ D+ A+ F B- 13% 39% 48% F C A+ A A+ C+ A+ B- A+ D C+ B+ D- C- 17% 30% 53% A C+ A C+ A- F D+ C+ D+
1.20 50% 50% 27% -1 -4 0.91 44% 1.3 .56 14% .61 74% .46 1.18 56% 31% 39% +2 -3 1.00 26% 1.0 .26 9% .33 75% .25
Jan
24		 Towson B- A+ A+ B- A+ 40% 16% 44% B- A+ D- C+ D+ F A+ C+ A+ C D F A D 35% 29% 37% C- D A+ A+ A+ C- F C F
1.12 72% 57% 35% +9 +1 1.22 22% 1.0 .22 21% .59 70% .41 1.02 61% 53% 26% +1 -1 1.02 26% 0.5 .13 15% .48 69% .33
Jan
29		 Monmouth B- C- C F F+ 51% 27% 22% C- F+ A A+ A+ D A+ A+ A+ D+ B- F+ A+ B+ 44% 26% 30% D+ B C+ C+ B- F F F F
1.09 56% 38% 18% -6 0 0.90 41% 1.8 .72 22% .39 87% .34 1.12 52% 47% 24% -5 0 0.91 29% 1.0 .29 11% .38 84% .32
Jan
31		 Drexel D- D+ C- F F+ 35% 22% 43% C D- F A- F C D+ A+ C+ B+ B+ B- D- B- 41% 24% 35% C+ B- C+ F D- D A+ A+ A+
0.94 53% 36% 24% -9 0 0.84 16% 1.2 .19 16% .28 87% .24 0.95 48% 33% 39% -3 0 0.96 28% 1.2 .33 17% .04 0% .00
Feb
5		 College of Charleston F B- F C- D 23% 30% 47% D- D- C F D F A+ A+ A+ C F D- B+ F 35% 31% 33% A- F A B+ A B+ A+ B- A+
0.87 64% 21% 32% -5 -2 0.87 31% 0.8 .26 25% .34 83% .28 1.10 84% 41% 28% +7 -2 1.13 23% 1.0 .23 20% .25 71% .18
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
7		 Campbell F+ D+ C+ C- D+ 51% 33% 16% D+ D+ D- F F A B F D D+ A D D- B- 55% 11% 34% D- C+ A F F C- F+ C- D-
1.01 57% 39% 33% 0 -1 1.00 25% 0.8 .20 13% .34 57% .20 1.13 46% 40% 38% -5 +3 0.98 27% 1.9 .52 17% .45 73% .33
Feb
13		 Hampton C- D F A+ D- 48% 39% 14% F F+ D+ A C+ A+ A+ C+ A+ C- C- C- C+ D 44% 19% 37% F D- C+ F F B+ F B+ F
1.07 57% 24% 50% -3 -2 0.93 26% 1.3 .32 11% .51 70% .35 1.06 58% 38% 31% -2 +1 1.00 31% 1.3 .41 21% .54 68% .36
Feb
19		 College of Charleston F+ F C F+ F+ 37% 17% 46% B D- D+ A+ B- F A- D B F+ F A+ F F 31% 29% 40% A- F D+ A+ A+ F+ A+ B- A
0.96 47% 38% 29% -8 0 0.87 28% 1.3 .36 19% .29 67% .19 1.17 81% 20% 43% +7 -2 1.13 32% 0.6 .19 13% .25 71% .18
Feb
21		 Elon A+ A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 31% 27% D A+ A+ C A+ C A A+ A+ F+ A- A+ F C 40% 11% 49% C+ C F+ F+ F F D+ D D
1.51 81% 67% 54% +26 -1 1.53 50% 1.1 .55 16% .37 86% .32 1.21 48% 17% 42% 0 +1 1.04 38% 1.1 .43 12% .33 75% .25
Feb
26		 UNC Wilmington C- A+ B F+ B 21% 33% 46% F+ C+ F+ D+ D- C B- F+ C F F+ B+ F D- 27% 36% 36% A+ D+ F+ F F F A+ D+ A
1.01 80% 44% 27% +2 -3 1.00 18% 1.0 .18 14% .29 69% .20 1.36 67% 30% 40% +3 -3 1.02 39% 1.5 .58 6% .23 71% .16
Feb
28		 William & Mary B- A+ A+ C+ A+ 29% 37% 33% F A+ C- C C- F C+ C C F+ F+ F A+ D+ 38% 15% 48% B C- A- B+ A- F D B C-
1.17 93% 63% 35% +20 -3 1.37 29% 1.0 .29 24% .30 71% .21 1.21 70% 78% 24% +3 +1 1.10 19% 1.0 .19 7% .40 71% .28
Mar
3		 Campbell D B D- C+ D+ 35% 38% 27% F D B F D D- A- F D F F C+ F F 46% 12% 42% C F D B C C+ C C C
1.02 67% 30% 36% +1 -3 0.98 36% 0.8 .31 20% .37 52% .19 1.27 70% 33% 48% +13 +2 1.32 38% 0.9 .34 18% .38 73% .28
Mar
6		 Northeastern F B F F F 38% 40% 21% F F B+ B+ A- F+ A+ A+ A+ F F B- F F 32% 28% 40% A+ F F+ A+ B D+ F C F
1.01 67% 16% 20% -10 -3 0.77 37% 1.2 .43 20% .49 82% .40 1.23 71% 33% 48% +11 -1 1.21 33% 0.7 .24 15% .38 70% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 100.0 100.0 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14 100.0% 100.0
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%