Elon
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.0 #192
Expected Predictive Rating -1.0 #188
Pace 68.4 #195
Improvement -2.1 #287

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #109 B C+ C C A-
Defense #304 D+ D C- C+ C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #30 1.21 #121 +5.0 #32
2 Pt. Jumpers 9% #353 0.66 #317 -4.9 #359
Three Pointers 46% #83 1.11 #64 +4.6 #45
1st FG Attempt 1.11 #57 +4.7 #57
Freethrows 0.31 #175 70% #247 0.22 #193
Second Chance 33.0% #112 1.03 #210 0.34 #133
Turnovers 16.4% #178
Total Offense +2.5 #109

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.11 #114 +3.4 #74
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #237 0.76 #180 +1.1 #116
Three Pointers 48% #31 1.17 #344 -7.0 #358
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #271 -2.5 #268
Freethrows 0.28 #116 71% #110 0.20 #106
Second Chance 33.8% #307 1.12 #284 0.38 #317
Turnovers 15.4% #239
Total Defense -4.5 #304

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.9% #10 -0.1% #152
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 5.1% #95 5.6% #285
Possession Length 17.3 #159 17.7 #246
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #213 0.17 #186
Improvement -3.8 #349 +1.7 #83

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.7% 6.1% 3.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.4 14.2 14.7
.500 or above 57.9% 74.5% 43.3%
.500 or above in Conference 54.3% 71.5% 39.0%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.7% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.8% 0.4% 3.0%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round4.6% 6.1% 3.3%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: William & Mary (Home) - 46.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 36 - 87 - 11
Quad 49 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 305 @UNC Greensboro W 92 - 90 OT 63% +1  1 - 0 -3 +8 C D- A+ -12 F B+ C-
 Wed, Nov 12 163 @Marshall L 89 - 96 32% -6  1 - 1 -4 +9 B B- B+ -13 F+ F C
 Sat, Nov 15 363 Gardner-Webb W 95 - 84 95% +16  2 - 1 -10 +5 A+ B- F -16 F D+ D
 Thu, Nov 20 39 @Miami (FL) L 72 - 99 6% -10  2 - 2 -11 +4 A+ D+ F -14 D+ F D+
 Mon, Nov 24 202 @Appalachian St. W 88 - 53 41% +17  3 - 2 +35 +30 C+ A+ A +11 B+ B+ C-
 Sat, Nov 29 154 Mercer L 84 - 91 52% -1  3 - 3 -10 +0 D D+ F -9 C- B+ F+
 Wed, Dec 3 159 Furman L 88 - 97 53% +1  3 - 4 -12 +12 B- C+ A+ -24 F C F
 Sat, Dec 6 211 @Wofford W 73 - 52 42% +21  4 - 4 +21 +9 A- F D +15 A+ B+ C-
 Sat, Dec 13 310 Northern Illinois W 85 - 79 82% -4  5 - 4 -6 +7 B- F A -13 D+ D+ D-
 Wed, Dec 17 121 Richmond W 73 - 70 43% -2  6 - 4 +3 +3 A F F+ -0 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 20 60 @Virginia Tech L 81 - 82 OT 9% +6  6 - 5 +11 +15 A A+ F+ -4 B F A-
 Mon, Dec 29 259 Northeastern W 103 - 91 73% +5  7 - 5 1 - 0 +4 +21 A+ A+ D -17 F C- C+
 Wed, Dec 31 162 College of Charleston L 81 - 85 54% -7  7 - 6 1 - 1 -7 +3 C C- A+ -9 C+ F C
 Thu, Jan 8 292 @N.C. A&T W 69 - 64 59% +6  8 - 6 2 - 1 +1 -4 F+ C+ C- +5 A F C
 Sat, Jan 10 206 Campbell W 83 - 82 64% -6  9 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +9 B- A+ B -14 F B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 259 @Northeastern L 78 - 85 51% -4  9 - 7 3 - 2 -9 -4 C+ D F -5 C+ F D
 Sat, Jan 17 128 @Hofstra W 89 - 85 25% +3  10 - 7 4 - 2 +9 +21 A+ D A- -12 F A- C
 Thu, Jan 22 164 Towson L 59 - 72 55% -5  10 - 8 4 - 3 -16 -2 C- C F -17 A F F
 Sat, Jan 24 162 @College of Charleston L 70 - 80 31% -10  10 - 9 4 - 4 -7 -3 D C D- -3 D C- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 132 William & Mary L 83 - 84 47%
 Sat, Jan 31 236 Stony Brook W 77 - 72 69%
 Thu, Feb 5 234 @Hampton L 73 - 74 47%
 Sat, Feb 7 201 Drexel W 73 - 69 63%
 Thu, Feb 12 122 @UNC Wilmington L 70 - 78 24%
 Sat, Feb 14 132 @William & Mary L 80 - 87 26%
 Sat, Feb 21 292 N.C. A&T W 84 - 76 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 164 @Towson L 68 - 73 34%
 Sat, Feb 28 185 @Monmouth L 72 - 75 38%
 Tue, Mar 3 122 UNC Wilmington L 73 - 75 44%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 -2 +2 B C+ C -4 D+ D C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 1.4 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 4.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 4.4 1.0 0.0 7.2 3rd
4th 0.6 5.6 2.7 0.1 9.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.9 6.4 0.6 10.9 5th
6th 0.9 8.7 2.7 0.0 12.3 6th
7th 0.1 5.2 7.3 0.3 13.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 8.9 1.9 0.0 12.3 8th
9th 0.4 5.1 5.6 0.1 11.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 2.0 6.1 1.1 9.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.9 3.3 2.0 0.0 6.3 11th
12th 0.1 0.9 1.0 0.1 2.1 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.3 2.1 6.8 14.9 21.7 22.5 17.0 9.7 3.9 1.0 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 95.7% 0.1    0.1 0.0
13-5 63.6% 0.6    0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
12-6 15.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 13.0% 13.0% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
13-5 1.0% 20.7% 20.7% 13.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.8
12-6 3.9% 13.7% 13.7% 13.6 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 3.3
11-7 9.7% 10.7% 10.7% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.2 8.7
10-8 17.0% 6.6% 6.6% 14.3 0.1 0.5 0.5 0.0 15.9
9-9 22.5% 3.8% 3.8% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 21.7
8-10 21.7% 2.5% 2.5% 15.2 0.0 0.4 0.1 21.2
7-11 14.9% 1.7% 1.7% 15.6 0.1 0.2 14.6
6-12 6.8% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 6.7
5-13 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
4-14 0.3% 0.3
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.7% 4.7% 0.0% 14.4 95.3 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%