Drexel
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.6 #201
Expected Predictive Rating -4.7 #236
Pace 61.1 #353
Improvement +7.3 #4

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #273 C D+ D D- C
Defense #136 C+ C- C- C- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #212 1.08 #279 -2.2 #262
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #197 0.70 #270 -1.0 #231
Three Pointers 43% #140 1.15 #28 +3.9 #56
1st FG Attempt 1.03 #156 +0.7 #157
Freethrows 0.26 #294 65% #357 0.17 #333
Second Chance 30.4% #193 0.86 #356 0.26 #291
Turnovers 18.6% #309
Total Offense -3.5 #273

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #166 1.12 #137 +0.2 #165
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #65 0.78 #222 -1.8 #312
Three Pointers 36% #304 0.96 #105 +3.4 #56
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #125 +1.9 #125
Freethrows 0.31 #221 74% #258 0.23 #247
Second Chance 31.9% #245 1.08 #241 0.34 #248
Turnovers 15.2% #250
Total Defense +0.9 #136

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.1% #190 -0.9% #99
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 1.4% #155 -2.8% #127
Possession Length 19.6 #351 17.1 #135
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #261 0.20 #265
Improvement +0.6 #147 +6.7 #1

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.0% 4.7% 2.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 34.7% 42.5% 18.8%
.500 or above in Conference 63.7% 72.7% 45.5%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.5% 0.3%
Last Place in Conference 1.6% 0.7% 3.3%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round3.9% 4.6% 2.4%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hampton (Home) - 67.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 34 - 94 - 12
Quad 411 - 515 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 137 @Saint Joseph's L 65 - 76 25% -1  0 - 1 -7 -5 F B- D -2 B- A- D
 Tue, Nov 11 209 @Colgate L 83 - 90 40% -7  0 - 2 -7 +10 A C- D+ -17 F C- B
 Sat, Nov 15 77 Syracuse L 50 - 80 17% -10  0 - 3 -22 -15 D+ F F -10 C- D D-
 Tue, Nov 18 338 NJIT W 75 - 43 86% +13  1 - 3 +18 -3 C- D+ C +20 A+ A- A-
 Fri, Nov 21 193 Penn L 68 - 84 59% -9  1 - 4 -21 -5 D- C- B -17 D+ F C
 Sun, Nov 23 232 Old Dominion W 75 - 71 67% +1  2 - 4 -3 +4 B- C+ D+ -7 C- C- D
 Tue, Nov 25 356 @Morgan St. W 71 - 66 79% +7  3 - 4 -6 -2 C- F F -4 D+ A F
 Wed, Dec 3 220 @American L 73 - 75 42% +1  3 - 5 -3 +4 B+ F B -7 D+ A+ F
 Sat, Dec 6 200 La Salle L 64 - 69 50% -8  3 - 6 -8 -6 F A- C -2 D+ C D-
 Tue, Dec 16 276 Howard L 66 - 74 74% -7  3 - 7 -17 -5 C+ F D -13 F F+ A
 Fri, Dec 19 286 Mount St. Mary's W 75 - 67 77% +11  4 - 7 -2 -2 A+ D+ F -0 D D A+
 Sun, Dec 21 335 Maine W 74 - 56 86% +9  5 - 7 +4 +16 A+ D F -8 C+ F B-
 Mon, Dec 29 162 @College of Charleston L 63 - 72 30% +1  5 - 8 0 - 1 -6 -1 C D F -6 D- F C+
 Wed, Dec 31 122 @UNC Wilmington L 53 - 65 22% -8  5 - 9 0 - 2 -6 -8 F B- F+ +0 B+ C- F
 Sat, Jan 3 128 Hofstra L 67 - 70 44% -8  5 - 10 0 - 3 -4 +4 C D A+ -8 C F C-
 Thu, Jan 8 236 Stony Brook W 56 - 37 67% +7  6 - 10 1 - 3 +12 -8 F B+ F +24 A+ D D
 Sat, Jan 10 132 William & Mary W 64 - 58 45% +5  7 - 10 2 - 3 +5 -6 A+ F+ F +11 A+ A B-
 Thu, Jan 15 185 @Monmouth W 73 - 51 36% +14  8 - 10 3 - 3 +23 +16 A+ A F+ +11 A- C+ A+
 Mon, Jan 19 164 @Towson L 58 - 59 31% +7  8 - 11 3 - 4 +2 -4 B+ F+ F +6 A D C-
 Sat, Jan 24 259 Northeastern W 83 - 78 71% +6  9 - 11 4 - 4 -3 +4 B F A+ -7 C+ F+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 234 Hampton W 67 - 62 67%
 Sat, Jan 31 292 N.C. A&T W 74 - 66 77%
 Thu, Feb 5 206 @Campbell L 70 - 73 39%
 Sat, Feb 7 192 @Elon L 69 - 73 37%
 Thu, Feb 12 185 Monmouth W 66 - 64 58%
 Mon, Feb 16 236 @Stony Brook L 65 - 66 45%
 Thu, Feb 19 259 @Northeastern L 72 - 73 48%
 Sat, Feb 21 164 Towson W 62 - 61 53%
 Thu, Feb 26 206 Campbell W 73 - 70 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 128 @Hofstra L 63 - 70 24%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -3 -3 C D+ D +1 C+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.2 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.8 2.7 1.0 0.1 5.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.8 5.3 2.1 0.2 9.4 3rd
4th 0.6 6.7 4.7 0.5 12.5 4th
5th 0.0 4.0 8.2 0.9 0.0 13.1 5th
6th 0.8 9.4 3.0 0.0 13.2 6th
7th 0.1 4.5 7.1 0.4 0.0 12.0 7th
8th 0.9 7.8 1.8 0.0 10.4 8th
9th 0.1 3.4 5.0 0.1 8.6 9th
10th 0.0 1.1 5.0 1.1 7.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 2.0 0.0 4.9 11th
12th 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.5 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.2 1.2 4.4 11.4 19.1 23.0 20.3 12.8 5.6 1.7 0.3 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 64.3% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
13-5 31.9% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.3% 10.7% 10.7% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
13-5 1.7% 12.5% 12.5% 14.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.5
12-6 5.6% 11.8% 11.8% 14.4 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.0 5.0
11-7 12.8% 8.3% 8.3% 14.8 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.1 11.8
10-8 20.3% 5.0% 5.0% 15.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 19.3
9-9 23.0% 2.7% 2.7% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 22.3
8-10 19.1% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 18.9
7-11 11.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.1 11.2
6-12 4.4% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 4.4
5-13 1.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 15.0 96.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.1%