UNC Wilmington
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.8#109
Expected Predictive Rating+8.2#75
Pace62.6#339
Improvement-0.6#216

Offense
Total Offense+3.7#88
First Shot-0.4#187
After Offensive Rebound+4.1#15
Layup/Dunks-1.4#237
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#112
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#243
Freethrows+1.6#94
Improvement+0.7#115

Defense
Total Defense+0.1#163
First Shot+0.1#167
After Offensive Rebounds+0.0#192
Layups/Dunks+3.6#61
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#334
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#300
Freethrows+2.6#46
Improvement-1.2#278
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 23.0% 23.6% 17.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.6 13.0
.500 or above 99.9% 99.9% 99.4%
.500 or above in Conference 94.3% 94.6% 90.7%
Conference Champion 33.4% 34.2% 25.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.2% 0.2% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round23.0% 23.6% 17.0%
Second Round2.9% 3.0% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Howard (Home) - 91.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 21 - 2
Quad 37 - 48 - 6
Quad 416 - 224 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 10 124 @Kent St. L 77-86 42%     0 - 1 -3.1 +2.3 -5.1
  Sat, Nov 15 261 South Carolina Upstate W 73-60 87%     1 - 1 +4.5 +7.7 -1.4
  Tue, Nov 18 287 East Carolina W 85-60 89%     2 - 1 +15.1 +13.0 +3.2
  Fri, Nov 21 267 @Radford W 81-73 73%     3 - 1 +5.3 +6.6 -1.3
  Wed, Nov 26 256 SE Louisiana W 70-57 87%     4 - 1 +4.7 +4.3 +1.9
  Fri, Nov 28 204 Navy W 87-57 82%     5 - 1 +24.2 +19.4 +7.0
  Sat, Nov 29 357 Gardner-Webb W 88-62 96%     6 - 1 +8.8 +7.7 +1.4
  Wed, Dec 3 159 Marshall W 70-69 74%     7 - 1 -1.9 +3.8 -5.6
  Sat, Dec 6 325 @Louisiana W 70-63 84%     8 - 1 +0.3 +3.7 -2.7
  Sat, Dec 13 212 @Valparaiso W 73-70 65%     9 - 1 +2.8 +9.4 -6.3
  Sat, Dec 20 299 Howard W 78-64 91%    
  Mon, Dec 29 311 @N.C. A&T W 77-67 82%    
  Wed, Dec 31 271 Drexel W 74-61 88%    
  Sat, Jan 3 230 Hampton W 74-63 84%    
  Thu, Jan 8 211 @Northeastern W 73-69 65%    
  Sat, Jan 10 197 @Stony Brook W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Jan 17 226 Campbell W 79-68 83%    
  Thu, Jan 22 121 @William & Mary L 77-79 42%    
  Sat, Jan 24 230 @Hampton W 71-66 67%    
  Thu, Jan 29 139 @Towson L 66-67 47%    
  Thu, Feb 5 121 William & Mary W 80-76 64%    
  Mon, Feb 9 172 @College of Charleston W 72-70 56%    
  Thu, Feb 12 192 Elon W 80-71 79%    
  Sat, Feb 14 115 Hofstra W 71-68 63%    
  Thu, Feb 19 206 Monmouth W 76-66 81%    
  Sat, Feb 21 226 @Campbell W 76-71 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 311 N.C. A&T W 80-64 92%    
  Sat, Feb 28 172 College of Charleston W 75-67 76%    
  Tue, Mar 3 192 @Elon W 77-74 60%    
Projected Record 22 - 7 13 - 5




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.9 4.1 8.2 9.4 7.0 3.1 0.7 33.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 4.6 8.0 5.7 2.1 0.2 0.0 21.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 3.8 6.4 3.5 0.7 0.0 15.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.2 2.3 5.0 2.7 0.4 0.0 10.6 4th
5th 0.1 0.9 3.5 2.3 0.3 0.0 7.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 2.1 2.0 0.2 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.1 1.6 0.3 0.0 3.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.5 0.0 2.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 1.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.7 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.4 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.5 3.2 5.3 8.7 12.1 14.9 16.0 14.7 11.5 7.2 3.1 0.7 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.7    0.7
17-1 99.7% 3.1    3.0 0.1
16-2 96.9% 7.0    6.2 0.8 0.0
15-3 81.6% 9.4    6.8 2.4 0.2
14-4 55.9% 8.2    4.2 3.2 0.7 0.0 0.0
13-5 25.3% 4.1    1.1 1.8 1.0 0.2 0.0
12-6 6.2% 0.9    0.1 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.1
11-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 33.4% 33.4 22.1 8.6 2.3 0.4 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.7% 56.5% 55.1% 1.4% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.3 3.2%
17-1 3.1% 42.4% 42.2% 0.2% 11.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.0 1.8 0.4%
16-2 7.2% 40.7% 40.7% 12.0 0.0 0.4 2.0 0.5 0.0 4.3
15-3 11.5% 33.6% 33.6% 12.3 0.2 2.2 1.4 0.1 7.6
14-4 14.7% 30.2% 30.2% 12.6 0.1 1.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 10.3
13-5 16.0% 24.0% 24.0% 12.9 0.0 1.0 2.2 0.6 0.0 12.2
12-6 14.9% 20.2% 20.2% 13.1 0.5 1.7 0.8 0.0 11.9
11-7 12.1% 13.8% 13.8% 13.4 0.1 0.8 0.7 0.1 10.4
10-8 8.7% 10.7% 10.7% 13.6 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 7.8
9-9 5.3% 6.9% 6.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 5.0
8-10 3.2% 5.1% 5.1% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.0
7-11 1.5% 3.9% 3.9% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5
6-12 0.7% 1.0% 1.0% 15.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.3% 0.3
4-14 0.1% 0.0 0.1
3-15 0.0% 0.0
2-16 0.0% 0.0
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 23.0% 23.0% 0.0% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 8.5 9.2 3.2 0.5 0.0 77.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 10.2 4.6 3.7 5.6 10.2 13.9 51.9 10.2
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 2.8% 11.0 2.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1% 3.4% 11.0 3.4