IN CC Stats - NCAA Basketball

College of Charleston
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating	+0.0	#162
Expected Predictive Rating	+1.5	#140

Pace	70.8	#129
Improvement	+2.0	#88

	Overall	1st FGA	Second Chance	TOs	Free throws	Shot Selection
Offense	#160	C	C	C	B+	C-
Defense	#170	C+	C	D-	B+	B

Offense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	36%	#253	1.31	#38	+1.2	#132
2 Pt. Jumpers	22%	#140	0.70	#266	+0.1	#168
Three Pointers	42%	#168	0.90	#322	-2.1	#253
1st FG Attempt			1.00	#198	-0.7	#195
Freethrows	0.36	#29	75%	#96	0.27	#23
Second Chance	29.7%	#213	1.06	#160	0.31	#184
Turnovers					16.2%	#164
Total Offense					+0.1	#160

Defense Breakdown

	Attempts		Conversion Rate		Total Effect
Close Shots	31%	#339	1.21	#250	+3.9	#58
2 Pt. Jumpers	24%	#73	0.77	#192	-1.5	#295
Three Pointers	45%	#64	0.96	#98	-0.8	#217
1st FG Attempt			0.99	#133	+1.6	#133
Freethrows	0.25	#42	70%	#56	0.17	#30
Second Chance	30.3%	#165	1.03	#145	0.31	#157
Turnovers					13.3%	#340
Total Defense					-0.2	#170

Miscellaneous

	Offense		Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect	-0.8%	#245	-2.0%	#41
Shot Type Accuracy Effect	-0.7%	#183	-1.1%	#165
Possession Length	17.3	#164	17.2	#153
Fast Break Points Per Possession	0.16	#182	0.17	#195
Improvement	-0.7	#214	+2.7	#44

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.

	Now	Win Next	Lose Next
#1 Overall Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
#1 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 2 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 4 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Top 6 Seed	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid	12.0%	15.7%	10.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Average Seed	13.8	13.6	13.9

.500 or above	92.4%	98.1%	89.8%
.500 or above in Conference	96.0%	99.4%	94.4%
Conference Champion	21.1%	33.8%	15.1%
Last Place in Conference	0.0%	0.0%	0.1%

First Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
First Round	12.0%	15.7%	10.2%
Second Round	0.4%	0.5%	0.3%
Sweet Sixteen	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Elite Eight	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Final Four	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
Championship Game	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%
National Champion	0.0%	0.0%	0.0%

Next Game: Hofstra (Away) - 32.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding

Not in Tournament

Projected Record by Quad
Quad	Projected	Projected Cumulative
Quad 1a	0 - 0	0 - 0
Quad 1b	0 - 1	0 - 1
Quad 2	0 - 4	0 - 5
Quad 3	7 - 6	7 - 11
Quad 4	11 - 2	19 - 13

Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Record		Total Rating	Offense				Defense
Date	Opponent	Result/Prediction			Avg Lead	Overall	Conf	Total Rating	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs	Total	First FGA	2nd Chance	TOs
Fri, Nov 7	95 @Liberty	L	75 - 90	21%	-8	0 - 1		-6	+13	B	A+	C-	-21	D-	F	F
Sat, Nov 8	102 Florida Atlantic	L	77 - 94	31%	-15	0 - 2		-12	+10	C	D	A-	-22	C	F	F
Fri, Nov 14	359 South Carolina St.	W	88 - 61	94%	+14	1 - 2		+9	+11	C+	C+	A	-1	C+	B+	D-
Mon, Nov 17	148 Drake	L	62 - 71	59%	-5	1 - 3		-11	-10	F+	D	C-	-1	C+	B	A-
Fri, Nov 21	170 Massachusetts	W	69 - 65	53%	-1	2 - 3		+3	-1	F+	A	B+	+5	C-	C+	B+
Sun, Nov 23	70 Yale	L	63 - 74	22%	-9	2 - 4		-3	-5	D-	F	C+	+1	C-	A+	D+
Mon, Nov 24	270 Evansville	W	78 - 59	72%	+12	3 - 4		+13	+5	B-	C	C	+8	A-	A+	F
Sun, Nov 30	75 Belmont	L	73 - 96	33%	-19	3 - 5		-18	+0	F	B-	A+	-19	F	A-	F
Wed, Dec 10	69 @South Florida	L	75 - 81	15%	-2	3 - 6		+5	+8	D+	B	C	-3	C+	C+	D+
Sun, Dec 14	172 Charlotte	W	74 - 67	65%	+4	4 - 6		+3	-1	B-	C+	D	+4	B+	A+	C-
Wed, Dec 17	351 The Citadel	W	82 - 78	92%	-2	5 - 6		-12	-2	C	F	D	-10	D-	C+	D+
Sun, Dec 21	180 @Northern Kentucky	W	85 - 74	44%	+4	6 - 6		+13	+8	B+	C+	C-	+4	C	B+	A+
Mon, Dec 29	201 Drexel	W	72 - 63	70%	-1	7 - 6	1 - 0	+3	+7	B+	A-	D	-3	C+	C+	C-
Wed, Dec 31	192 @Elon	W	85 - 81	46%	+7	8 - 6	2 - 0	+5	+5	D-	B	D+	-0	B+	B	F
Mon, Jan 5	132 William & Mary	W	88 - 79	55%	+6	9 - 6	3 - 0	+8	+2	B+	F	D-	+5	A+	C	F
Sat, Jan 10	234 Hampton	W	74 - 70	75%	+5	10 - 6	4 - 0	-3	+7	C+	C+	B+	-10	B	D	F
Thu, Jan 15	164 @Towson	L	52 - 61	40%	-9	10 - 7	4 - 1	-6	-15	F	C-	F	+8	A+	D+	C-
Sat, Jan 17	236 @Stony Brook	L	106 - 112 2OT	55%	-3	10 - 8	4 - 2	-7	+12	C-	A-	A-	-18	F	C	F
Thu, Jan 22	206 Campbell	W	87 - 83	71%	+3	11 - 8	5 - 2	-2	+6	B+	C	D	-8	D+	F	C
Sat, Jan 24	192 Elon	W	80 - 70	69%	+10	12 - 8	6 - 2	+5	-1	C	C-	F	+6	A+	C+	C
Thu, Jan 29	128 @Hofstra	L	72 - 77	32%
Sat, Jan 31	259 @Northeastern	W	81 - 79	59%
Thu, Feb 5	292 N.C. A&T	W	83 - 73	84%
Mon, Feb 9	122 UNC Wilmington	W	73 - 72	51%
Thu, Feb 12	128 Hofstra	W	75 - 74	54%
Sat, Feb 14	206 @Campbell	L	79 - 80	49%
Thu, Feb 19	292 @N.C. A&T	W	80 - 76	66%
Sat, Feb 21	185 Monmouth	W	74 - 69	68%
Thu, Feb 26	234 @Hampton	W	72 - 71	54%
Sat, Feb 28	122 @UNC Wilmington	L	69 - 75	30%
Totals						17 - 13	11 - 7	+0	+0	C	C	C	+0	C+	C	D-

Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.

Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

	0-18	1-17	2-16	3-15	4-14	5-13	6-12	7-11	8-10	9-9	10-8	11-7	12-6	13-5	14-4	15-3	16-2	17-1	18-0	Total
1st												0.2	3.0	7.9	7.0	2.7	0.4			21.1	1st
2nd											0.2	4.9	12.4	7.8	1.5	0.1				26.9	2nd
3rd										0.0	2.4	9.9	6.1	0.7	0.0					19.2	3rd
4th										0.4	6.4	5.5	0.5							12.8	4th
5th									0.0	2.2	5.2	0.8	0.0							8.3	5th
6th									0.3	3.5	1.5	0.0								5.3	6th
7th									0.9	2.1	0.1									3.1	7th
8th								0.1	1.3	0.4										1.8	8th
9th							0.0	0.3	0.6	0.0										0.9	9th
10th							0.0	0.3	0.1											0.4	10th
11th							0.0	0.1	0.0											0.1	11th
12th							0.0	0.0												0.0	12th
13th							0.0													0.0	13th

Total							0.1	0.7	3.2	8.8	15.9	21.4	21.9	16.4	8.5	2.8	0.4				Total

Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record	Champion	Total	Outright	2-Way	3-Way	4-Way	5-Way	6-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2	100.0%	0.4	0.4
15-3	97.9%	2.7	2.4	0.3
14-4	82.0%	7.0	4.5	2.2	0.2
13-5	47.9%	7.9	2.9	3.8	1.2	0.1
12-6	13.5%	3.0	0.3	1.1	1.1	0.3	0.1
11-7	1.1%	0.2		0.0	0.1	0.1	0.0	0.0
10-8	0.0%
9-9	0.0%

Total	21.1%	21.1	10.5	7.4	2.5	0.5	0.1	0.0

NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf Record	Record Chance	Tourney Bid	Auto	At-Large	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16	No Bid	At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2	0.4%	32.5%	32.5%		12.3											0.0	0.1	0.0				0.3
15-3	2.8%	25.2%	25.2%		13.0												0.1	0.4	0.2	0.0		2.1
14-4	8.5%	19.1%	19.1%		13.4												0.1	0.8	0.6	0.0		6.9
13-5	16.4%	17.3%	17.3%		13.6												0.1	1.1	1.5	0.2		13.6
12-6	21.9%	14.6%	14.6%		13.9												0.0	0.9	1.8	0.5	0.0	18.7
11-7	21.4%	10.2%	10.2%		14.1												0.0	0.3	1.3	0.6		19.2
10-8	15.9%	5.9%	5.9%		14.5													0.0	0.5	0.4	0.0	14.9
9-9	8.8%	3.1%	3.1%		14.8													0.0	0.0	0.2	0.0	8.6
8-10	3.2%	3.0%	3.0%		15.2															0.1	0.0	3.1
7-11	0.7%	2.7%	2.7%		16.0																0.0	0.7
6-12	0.1%																					0.1
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18

Total	100%	12.0%	12.0%	0.0%	13.8																	88.0	0.0%

Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

	Chance	Tourney Bid	Avg Seed	1	2	3	4	5	6	7	8	9	10	11	12	13	14	15	16
Win Out	0.1%	100.0%	12.3											4.0	64.0	32.0