Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -4.3 #236
Expected Predictive Rating -1.4 #191
Pace 63.0 #326
Improvement +0.4 #163

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #217 C D C- D- C+
Defense #248 C- C+ D+ C C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 0.98 #348 -4.9 #333
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #257 0.86 #54 -0.6 #212
Three Pointers 48% #48 1.10 #72 +5.4 #33
1st FG Attempt 1.02 #177 -0.1 #178
Freethrows 0.24 #335 70% #265 0.17 #339
Second Chance 28.7% #237 0.89 #339 0.26 #307
Turnovers 17.2% #237
Total Offense -1.9 #217

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #196 1.19 #225 -0.5 #196
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #223 0.66 #41 +1.6 #77
Three Pointers 43% #122 1.11 #297 -2.9 #296
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #242 -1.8 #242
Freethrows 0.30 #195 71% #119 0.22 #176
Second Chance 31.6% #230 0.95 #59 0.30 #124
Turnovers 15.1% #268
Total Defense -2.4 #248

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #156 0.4% #204
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -0.7% #185 3.2% #241
Possession Length 18.0 #245 17.0 #119
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 #338 0.18 #202
Improvement +1.1 #128 -0.6 #221

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.5% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.0
.500 or above 45.1% 65.4% 34.8%
.500 or above in Conference 42.3% 63.1% 31.8%
Conference Champion 0.5% 1.2% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 0.7% 4.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round1.7% 2.5% 1.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Campbell (Away) - 33.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 3
Quad 35 - 95 - 12
Quad 410 - 415 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 335 Maine W 71 - 60 82% +6  1 - 0 -3 -3 D+ F A+ +0 B- B F
 Sat, Nov 15 70 @Yale L 79 - 86 9% -7  1 - 1 +4 +16 A+ C+ D- -12 F+ B+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 265 Brown W 80 - 70 67% +9  2 - 1 +1 +11 B+ B B -9 F D C
 Mon, Nov 24 131 Pacific L 58 - 86 28% -17  2 - 2 -26 -11 F+ D- D- -16 F A+ C+
 Tue, Nov 25 248 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 52% -2  3 - 2 +2 -7 D- D- F +10 A A- C
 Fri, Nov 28 155 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 23% +6  4 - 2 +6 +5 B- D+ C+ +1 C+ D A-
 Sat, Dec 6 116 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 16% -8  4 - 3 -3 +6 C- C A+ -9 F A+ D
 Tue, Dec 9 168 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 48% +8  5 - 3 +0 -7 D- B F +7 B+ A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 304 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 75% +16  6 - 3 +12 +7 A+ A+ F +7 A+ B F
 Wed, Dec 17 309 Albany L 55 - 71 76% -8  6 - 4 -28 -20 F F A- -9 F A+ C-
 Sun, Dec 21 160 @Marist L 51 - 70 24% -13  6 - 5 -16 -12 F F C- -5 C C- F
 Mon, Dec 29 234 @Hampton L 59 - 62 38% +2  6 - 6 0 - 1 -4 -8 B- F F +3 C+ C- C
 Wed, Dec 31 132 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 20% -6  6 - 7 0 - 2 -14 -9 D- F C -7 F A- C+
 Sat, Jan 3 292 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 72% +4  7 - 7 1 - 2 -9 +8 B+ C C+ -18 C- F D+
 Thu, Jan 8 201 @Drexel L 37 - 56 33% -7  7 - 8 1 - 3 -19 -25 F C- C+ +2 A+ F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 122 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 35% +8  7 - 9 1 - 4 -4 +3 C A+ D+ -7 F+ C- C
 Thu, Jan 15 128 Hofstra W 76 - 71 38% +6  8 - 9 2 - 4 +4 +14 A C- B -10 C- B+ F+
 Sat, Jan 17 162 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 45% +3  9 - 9 3 - 4 +3 +16 A+ D A -14 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 22 259 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 42% +9  10 - 9 4 - 4 +13 +17 A+ C+ F+ -4 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 206 @Campbell L 73 - 77 34%
 Sat, Jan 31 192 @Elon L 72 - 77 31%
 Thu, Feb 5 185 Monmouth W 68 - 67 53%
 Sat, Feb 7 259 Northeastern W 78 - 74 65%
 Thu, Feb 12 164 @Towson L 61 - 68 26%
 Mon, Feb 16 201 Drexel W 66 - 65 55%
 Sat, Feb 21 234 Hampton W 69 - 66 61%
 Thu, Feb 26 185 @Monmouth L 65 - 70 31%
 Sat, Feb 28 128 @Hofstra L 66 - 75 20%
 Tue, Mar 3 164 Towson L 64 - 65 47%
Totals 14 - 15 8 - 10 -4 -2 C D C- -2 C- C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.5 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.1 0.3 0.0 2.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.2 2.5 0.8 0.0 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.6 4.6 2.1 0.1 7.4 4th
5th 0.0 3.6 5.2 0.4 0.0 9.3 5th
6th 0.9 8.2 1.9 0.0 11.0 6th
7th 0.1 4.8 6.3 0.2 11.4 7th
8th 0.0 1.3 9.5 1.6 0.0 12.5 8th
9th 0.3 6.0 6.5 0.1 12.9 9th
10th 0.1 2.6 8.0 1.3 0.0 12.0 10th
11th 0.1 1.6 6.0 3.3 0.1 11.1 11th
12th 0.3 1.9 1.8 0.1 4.2 12th
13th 0.3 0.5 0.1 0.9 13th
Total 0.7 4.1 10.8 18.9 23.2 20.4 13.2 5.9 2.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 72.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-5 36.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-6 8.1% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 1.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.5% 0.5 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.1% 0.0 0.0
13-5 0.5% 10.4% 10.4% 14.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
12-6 2.3% 9.6% 9.6% 13.9 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
11-7 5.9% 5.8% 5.8% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.2 5.6
10-8 13.2% 3.4% 3.4% 14.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 12.7
9-9 20.4% 1.3% 1.3% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.0 20.2
8-10 23.2% 1.0% 1.0% 15.5 0.1 0.1 23.0
7-11 18.9% 1.0% 1.0% 15.9 0.0 0.2 18.7
6-12 10.8% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 10.8
5-13 4.1% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.1
4-14 0.7% 0.7
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.8 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.4%