Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -3.8 228
Results Rating -2.2 199
Consistency 0.16 212
Pace 65.8 254
Improvement +0.7 156

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C- 238 C D C- D C+
Defense C- 218 D+ C+ C- C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% 303 D- 51% 331 -4.9 340
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% 297 B- 42% 67 -1.1 243
Three Pointers 50% 27 C+ 35% 117 +5.5 26
Shot Selection/Accuracy C+ +0.3 153 C- -0.8 201
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 187
Second Chance D+ 27.8% 253 D- 0.91 336 D 0.25 310
Opponents' Steals D 10.7% 298
Other Turnovers C+ 6.7% 123
Turnovers C- 17.4% 232
Freethrows D- 0.25 334 C 72% 187 D 0.18 323
Total Offense C- -2.5 238

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots D+ 42% 280 F+ 15.1% 350
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 18% 284 B 2.9% 43
Three Pointers C 84% 183 D- 1.6% 328
Total C 56% 168 D+ 6.4% 275


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% 237 C- 60% 227 -0.2 169
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% 222 B- 35% 71 -1.1 105
Three Pointers 44% 89 D- 37% 319 +3.7 329
Shot Selection/Accuracy C +0.1 185 D+ +2.2 276
1st FG Attempt D+ 1.07 262
Second Chance C- 31.6% 246 B+ 0.92 37 C+ 0.29 123
Turnovers from Steals C- 9.0% 206
Other Turnovers C 7.1% 186
Turnovers C- 16.1% 217
Freethrows C 0.31 196 C 72% 176 C 0.22 190
Total Defense C- -1.3 218

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B- 44% 83 C- 10.1% 206
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D 34% 315 C+ 5.8% 104
Three Pointers C- 85% 220 C- 0.8% 183
Total C- 57% 217 C- 5.2% 202

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.4 288 17.1 130
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.11 333 0.18 207
Consistency 0.16 354 0.12 172
Improvement +0.5 167 +0.2 171

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 228 228 228
Results Rating Rank 199 199 199
Conference Record 9 - 9 9 - 9 9 - 9
Conference Finish 7 7 7
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 34 - 84 - 12
Quad 411 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 345 Maine W 71 - 60 87% +6  99% 1 - 0 D+ -5 D- -7 D F A+ B- +2 B C+ F
 Sat, Nov 15 85 @Yale L 79 - 86 10% -7  3% 1 - 1 C+ +3 A +13 A+ B- F+ F -10 F C+ C+
 Thu, Nov 20 292 Brown W 80 - 70 74% +9  89% 2 - 1 C -1 B +7 B- A- A D- -7 F D D+
 Mon, Nov 24 117 Pacific L 58 - 86 26% -17  4% 2 - 2 F -25 F -12 F+ D D- F -14 F A+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 248 Bethune-Cookman W 61 - 54 55% -2  33% 3 - 2 C+ +2 F+ -9 D- D- F A+ +11 A A C-
 Fri, Nov 28 166 @Loyola Marymount W 71 - 68 26% +6  69% 4 - 2 B- +6 C +1 C+ D+ B- B +5 B- D- A
 Sat, Dec 6 121 @Duquesne L 75 - 84 18% -8  4% 4 - 3 C- -3 B- +4 D C+ A+ D- -7 F A+ D+
 Tue, Dec 9 200 Columbia W 77 - 73 OT 55% +8  91% 5 - 3 C -1 F+ -10 F B+ F A- +8 B A+ B-
 Sat, Dec 13 269 Central Michigan W 78 - 55 70% +16  97% 6 - 3 B+ +14 B- +4 A+ A+ F A+ +12 A+ A- F
 Wed, Dec 17 323 Albany L 55 - 71 82% -8  10% 6 - 4 F -29 F -24 F F A- D -6 F A+ D+
 Sun, Dec 21 205 @Marist L 51 - 70 33% -13  8% 6 - 5 F -18 F -15 F F C- D+ -4 C D- F
 Mon, Dec 29 268 @Hampton L 59 - 62 47% +2  72% 6 - 6 0 - 1 D+ -6 F -11 B- F F B +5 C D C-
 Wed, Dec 31 151 @William & Mary L 57 - 76 24% -6  5% 6 - 7 0 - 2 F+ -16 F -13 F F D+ D+ -4 F B+ B-
 Sat, Jan 3 287 N.C. A&T W 81 - 80 74% +4  71% 7 - 7 1 - 2 D -9 B- +5 B+ D+ C+ F -14 C- F D
 Thu, Jan 8 214 @Drexel L 37 - 56 36% -7  17% 7 - 8 1 - 3 F -19 F -27 F C B- B- +3 A F B+
 Sat, Jan 10 113 UNC Wilmington L 71 - 75 35% +8  72% 7 - 9 1 - 4 C- -4 C +1 C A+ D+ D+ -5 F+ D+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 98 Hofstra W 76 - 71 28% +6  89% 8 - 9 2 - 4 B- +7 A+ +15 A+ C+ B+ D- -7 D+ B F
 Sat, Jan 17 163 College of Charleston W 112 - 106 2OT 46% +3  68% 9 - 9 3 - 4 C+ +3 A+ +15 A+ D A+ F -13 D+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 293 @Northeastern W 95 - 80 53% +9  94% 10 - 9 4 - 4 B +10 A +13 A+ C- F C- -3 B F F
 Thu, Jan 29 181 @Campbell W 81 - 69 29% +3  75% 11 - 9 5 - 4 B+ +14 B+ +9 A+ F B B+ +6 C+ A- D+
 Sat, Jan 31 242 @Elon W 72 - 68 42% +6  90% 12 - 9 6 - 4 C+ +2 D -5 D C+ D- A- +8 D+ A+ C+
 Thu, Feb 5 171 Monmouth L 75 - 76 49% -8  0% 12 - 10 6 - 5 C- -5 C- -2 B- C- F C- -2 C- A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 293 Northeastern W 69 - 55 74% +10  73% 13 - 10 7 - 5 C+ +3 F -12 C- F D- A+ +16 A+ D- C+
 Thu, Feb 12 154 @Towson L 57 - 69 25% -10  0% 13 - 11 7 - 6 D -9 F+ -8 F C A- C- -2 C C D
 Mon, Feb 16 214 Drexel W 72 - 69 59% -1  34% 14 - 11 8 - 6 C- -3 C+ +2 C+ F+ A+ D+ -5 D- D- A+
 Sat, Feb 21 268 Hampton W 79 - 72 69% +5  73% 15 - 11 9 - 6 C- -2 C+ +2 A+ D F D+ -4 F+ A- B
 Thu, Feb 26 171 @Monmouth L 69 - 82 27% -12  0% 15 - 12 9 - 7 D -11 C- -1 C- C C F -10 F F C+
 Sat, Feb 28 98 @Hofstra L 58 - 67 13% -5  4% 15 - 13 9 - 8 C -1 F -13 F D- C A+ +12 C+ A+ A-
 Tue, Mar 3 154 Towson L 57 - 69 46% +4  75% 15 - 14 9 - 9 D- -15 F+ -9 C+ F D+ D- -7 D- C D+
 Sat, Mar 7 181 Campbell L 89 - 96 40% -6  19% 15 - 15 D+ -8 B+ +8 B- D+ B+ F -16 F F C
Totals 15 - 15 9 - 9 -4 C- -2 C+ C- C+ C- -1 C+ C D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C- D- B- C+ C- 34% 28% 50% C+ C D+ D- D C- D- C D C- C- B- D- D+ 37% 19% 44% C D+ C- B+ C+ C- C C C
1.05 51% 42% 35% -1 0 1.01 28% 0.9 .25 17% .25 72% .18 1.11 60% 35% 37% +2 0 1.07 32% 0.9 .29 16% .31 72% .18
Nov
8		 Maine D- C D+ F D- 47% 21% 32% C+ D F F F A+ A- D B- B- F A+ A+ B+ 46% 23% 31% C- B B+ F C+ F F B D-
1.02 60% 36% 24% -4 +1 0.94 24% 0.7 .17 11% .37 65% .24 0.86 68% 9% 20% -9 0 0.85 14% 1.2 .16 16% .42 60% .25
Nov
15		 Yale A A+ B A+ A+ 33% 16% 51% C+ A+ D A+ B- F+ A- C- B+ F C+ A- F F 40% 23% 38% B- F F A+ C+ C+ F F F
1.24 73% 43% 43% +13 0 1.29 23% 1.5 .35 19% .33 71% .23 1.35 56% 33% 60% +13 0 1.28 40% 0.9 .36 16% .61 85% .52
Nov
20		 Brown B C- F A+ C+ 53% 16% 31% A- B- C+ A+ A- A C+ D- C- D- B+ F F F 42% 22% 36% B F F C+ D D+ B+ A+ A
1.20 56% 25% 44% +1 +2 1.08 32% 1.3 .41 13% .35 70% .24 1.05 48% 55% 44% +5 0 1.12 35% 1.0 .35 19% .20 55% .11
Nov
24		 Pacific F F A+ F F 23% 19% 58% B- F+ D- C- D D- F A+ D+ F F D- F F 40% 33% 28% A- F A+ C- A+ B- F F F
0.87 33% 50% 27% -10 -1 0.81 18% 1.0 .18 18% .24 85% .20 1.29 94% 46% 64% +29 -1 1.58 18% 1.0 .18 21% .45 83% .38
Nov
25		 Bethune-Cookman F+ D D D D 26% 19% 55% F+ D- B F D- F C+ F D+ A+ A- C+ A+ A 42% 35% 23% A A F A+ A C- F A- F
0.97 50% 33% 31% -6 -1 0.89 38% 0.7 .28 22% .33 63% .20 0.86 50% 33% 20% -10 -2 0.79 45% 0.4 .17 17% .50 62% .31
Nov
28		 Loyola Marymount C F A+ D+ C+ 38% 21% 40% B- C+ F+ B D+ B- A A A+ B D- A+ A- A- 38% 13% 50% F B- F B+ D- A F F F
1.04 33% 80% 32% -2 0 0.98 24% 1.1 .27 15% .38 82% .31 1.00 67% 17% 29% -3 +1 0.98 39% 0.9 .35 22% .38 80% .30
Dec
6		 Duquesne B- F A+ D D- 36% 13% 52% B+ D B- D+ C+ A+ F A F+ D- B- F F F 38% 11% 51% C+ F F A+ A+ D+ F C- F
1.09 35% 86% 31% -5 +1 0.95 32% 0.9 .29 12% .23 79% .18 1.22 56% 60% 46% +10 +1 1.26 38% 0.5 .18 16% .45 73% .33
Dec
9		 Columbia F+ F B+ C+ F 46% 19% 35% B- F C+ A+ B+ F B- F+ C A- C A+ B A- 43% 11% 46% D+ B D- A+ A+ B- D- F F+
0.97 35% 45% 35% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.2 .36 20% .33 67% .22 0.92 57% 17% 32% -4 +2 0.96 40% 0.4 .16 23% .31 79% .25
Dec
13		 Central Michigan B- F+ A+ A+ A+ 42% 23% 35% D+ A+ A+ C A+ F C B C+ A+ C+ C+ A+ A+ 34% 25% 42% C A+ A+ F A- F C F D+
1.22 50% 50% 67% +16 0 1.35 54% 1.2 .63 31% .34 73% .25 0.86 56% 38% 9% -16 -1 0.68 18% 1.3 .23 12% .27 80% .21
Dec
17		 Albany F F F+ F F 42% 18% 40% C F F F F A- F F+ F D F A+ F F 43% 9% 48% F F C+ A+ A+ D+ F A+ C
0.84 42% 30% 26% -13 +1 0.77 17% 0.4 .07 11% .22 69% .15 1.09 75% 25% 41% +11 +2 1.28 30% 0.4 .12 18% .34 44% .15
Dec
21		 Marist F F F F F 22% 31% 47% F+ F F+ F F C- C- F D D+ C+ B+ C+ C+ 35% 23% 42% D+ C C- F D- F C C- C-
0.77 45% 27% 26% -12 -2 0.73 22% 0.7 .15 20% .34 61% .21 1.06 56% 33% 32% -3 -1 0.94 27% 1.2 .32 12% .24 79% .19
Dec
29		 Hampton F F+ D+ A+ C+ 50% 7% 43% A B- D- F F F B- F F B F F A+ C- 31% 27% 42% C+ C A- F D C- C- A+ B+
0.92 52% 33% 44% +4 +3 1.14 23% 0.3 .06 25% .41 45% .19 0.96 71% 50% 16% -4 -1 0.91 26% 1.4 .35 17% .36 58% .21
Dec
31		 William & Mary F B+ F F F 24% 14% 63% D+ F B F F D+ F A+ F+ D+ D+ F F F 39% 9% 52% C F C- A+ B+ B- D+ D- D
0.88 67% 14% 28% -7 0 0.88 35% 0.3 .09 20% .17 89% .15 1.17 65% 50% 43% +11 +2 1.27 28% 0.8 .21 18% .38 80% .30
Jan
3		 N.C. A&T B- C- D- A+ B+ 40% 17% 42% B- B+ D- B+ D+ C+ F+ A+ D+ F A+ B- F C- 40% 33% 27% C C- F A+ F D C F F+
1.24 57% 33% 50% +9 +1 1.21 22% 1.1 .25 12% .24 79% .19 1.22 43% 35% 50% -1 -1 0.98 56% 0.8 .46 17% .35 89% .31
Jan
8		 Drexel F F F F F 26% 17% 57% C F B- D C B- F D+ F B- A+ A+ C- A+ 36% 12% 52% D- A C- F F B+ B F C
0.65 25% 13% 15% -29 0 0.43 34% 0.9 .32 14% .22 73% .16 0.98 33% 20% 36% -9 +1 0.86 30% 1.3 .40 23% .23 80% .18
Jan
10		 UNC Wilmington C F A+ F+ C 30% 21% 49% B- C D A+ A+ D+ F A F D+ B- A+ F F+ 35% 17% 48% D- F+ B+ F D+ C A A+ A+
1.08 44% 73% 27% -2 -1 0.96 22% 2.1 .47 15% .11 83% .09 1.15 53% 13% 48% +4 0 1.10 30% 1.4 .41 15% .27 47% .13
Jan
15		 Hofstra A+ C+ B- A+ A+ 33% 20% 47% C+ A+ B+ D C+ B+ C- D- D D- B- A+ F D+ 27% 21% 52% C- D+ D+ A+ B F A F+ A-
1.28 56% 40% 43% +6 0 1.14 36% 0.9 .33 12% .29 67% .19 1.20 54% 20% 44% +3 -1 1.06 37% 0.8 .29 12% .21 82% .17
Jan
17		 College of Charleston A+ C+ A+ A A+ 35% 12% 53% A- A+ F A D A+ A+ F+ A+ F B A F C- 46% 19% 35% D- D+ B F F F F F F
1.30 61% 75% 40% +10 +1 1.24 20% 1.2 .24 9% .40 65% .26 1.23 55% 25% 41% 0 +1 1.03 26% 1.6 .43 12% .47 83% .39
Jan
22		 Northeastern A C+ C- A+ A+ 33% 10% 57% C+ A+ B+ F C- F C C+ C+ C- F A+ A+ B 39% 18% 44% C B C+ F F F D+ A+ A-
1.33 63% 40% 57% +22 +1 1.47 37% 0.8 .30 21% .36 75% .27 1.12 73% 20% 24% -4 0 0.95 26% 1.8 .46 11% .30 42% .13
Jan
29		 Campbell B+ B B+ A+ A+ 45% 15% 40% B+ A+ B F F B C+ B B- B+ F A+ D C- 31% 25% 43% A+ C+ A+ D- A- D+ A+ F B+
1.22 67% 43% 47% +13 +1 1.30 36% 0.5 .18 15% .32 78% .25 1.04 69% 15% 36% -1 -1 0.98 23% 1.1 .26 17% .29 81% .23
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Jan
31		 Elon D F B+ B+ D 24% 18% 57% D+ D B- C- C+ D- A- B- A A- C+ C+ D C 57% 6% 37% F D+ C- A+ A+ C+ C- C C-
1.04 33% 44% 39% 0 -1 1.00 36% 1.1 .39 19% .36 75% .27 0.99 55% 33% 37% 0 +3 1.08 33% 0.3 .10 17% .32 72% .23
Feb
5		 Monmouth C- B+ F A- B- 34% 10% 56% B- B- C D+ C- F C+ A+ B+ C- D+ A+ D C- 35% 23% 42% D+ C- C A+ A+ D- F D F
1.05 65% 0% 39% +3 +1 1.10 31% 0.9 .29 24% .29 88% .26 1.06 61% 25% 36% 0 -1 1.00 30% 0.6 .19 14% .37 78% .29
Feb
7		 Northeastern F A+ C+ F D+ 38% 15% 47% C C- F A F D- C C C A+ A A+ A+ A+ 30% 26% 44% A A+ C+ F D- C+ D B+ C-
1.03 78% 43% 27% +4 +1 1.11 14% 1.3 .17 19% .35 74% .26 0.82 47% 23% 18% -18 -1 0.64 26% 1.4 .36 18% .31 65% .20
Feb
12		 Towson F+ C F F F 27% 20% 53% D+ F C C+ C A- D+ F D C- A F B C+ 33% 30% 37% C C D+ B- C D C+ D+ C+
0.90 57% 20% 22% -13 -1 0.75 28% 1.0 .28 11% .23 62% .14 1.09 44% 50% 30% -3 -2 0.93 38% 0.8 .31 14% .26 71% .18
Feb
16		 Drexel C+ F+ B+ B- C 36% 21% 43% C+ C+ D+ F F+ A+ C+ A B+ D+ B F+ F F+ 36% 24% 40% B D- F B+ D- A+ A- F B-
1.10 47% 45% 35% -2 0 0.98 27% 0.8 .22 9% .32 84% .27 1.06 50% 45% 44% +5 -1 1.11 42% 0.8 .33 26% .21 80% .17
Feb
21		 Hampton C+ B A+ A+ A+ 39% 10% 51% B A+ D C- D F A+ B+ A+ D+ C C+ F F+ 41% 24% 35% D F+ D+ A+ A- B C C- C
1.15 69% 75% 43% +15 +1 1.34 24% 1.0 .24 23% .51 74% .38 1.04 57% 33% 39% +1 0 1.04 34% 0.6 .21 20% .35 74% .25
Feb
26		 Monmouth C- D A+ F C- 31% 15% 54% C- C- D A+ C C F F+ F F C F F+ F 27% 23% 50% C+ F C- F F C+ A B- A
1.02 53% 75% 28% -1 0 1.00 26% 1.2 .32 19% .11 67% .07 1.21 57% 67% 38% +10 -1 1.19 32% 1.5 .48 18% .20 73% .14
Feb
28		 Hofstra F F D+ F F 35% 11% 55% A- F D+ F D- C D- D- F+ A+ B+ A+ D C+ 18% 18% 64% C+ C+ A+ C+ A+ A- F C- F
0.84 37% 33% 23% -17 +1 0.71 27% 0.8 .23 14% .25 67% .17 0.97 50% 25% 38% 0 -1 1.00 16% 1.0 .16 20% .47 77% .36
Mar
3		 Towson F+ F A+ B- C+ 25% 18% 57% D+ C+ D+ F F D+ F A- F D- B C- F F+ 26% 26% 49% C D- D+ B- C D+ F+ A D+
0.93 38% 56% 34% -1 -1 0.98 24% 0.4 .11 16% .08 75% .06 1.13 50% 42% 39% +3 -2 1.04 39% 0.8 .31 15% .34 61% .21
Mar
7		 Campbell B+ A F A+ B 33% 28% 39% D- B- C- C- D+ B+ A- A+ A+ F F D F F 60% 14% 26% D F F F F C F A- F
1.23 72% 27% 43% +7 -1 1.13 29% 1.1 .32 14% .37 87% .32 1.33 71% 40% 56% +17 +2 1.40 44% 1.2 .52 18% .94 66% .62



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 100.0 100.0 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
13th 13th
Total 100.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5
12-6
11-7
10-8
9-9 100.0% 100.0
8-10
7-11
6-12
5-13
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%