Stony Brook
Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.4#197
Expected Predictive Rating+3.5#123
Pace64.1#315
Improvement+1.2#103

Offense
Total Offense-1.0#196
First Shot-0.7#192
After Offensive Rebound-0.3#198
Layup/Dunks-5.5#339
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.6#137
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.8#32
Freethrows-1.7#280
Improvement-1.2#277

Defense
Total Defense-1.4#218
First Shot-2.7#265
After Offensive Rebounds+1.4#93
Layups/Dunks+0.6#155
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#161
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#195
Freethrows-3.7#348
Improvement+2.3#34
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 3.8% 2.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.9 14.2
.500 or above 66.6% 70.6% 44.3%
.500 or above in Conference 50.2% 52.1% 39.5%
Conference Champion 3.4% 3.6% 1.9%
Last Place in Conference 5.9% 5.3% 9.1%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round3.5% 3.8% 2.2%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Albany (Home) - 84.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 35 - 76 - 11
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 336 Maine W 71-60 85%     1 - 0 -2.8 -3.9 +1.2
  Sat, Nov 15 79 @Yale L 79-86 12%     1 - 1 +3.4 +14.0 -11.3
  Thu, Nov 20 219 Brown W 80-70 65%     2 - 1 +3.6 +11.6 -7.5
  Mon, Nov 24 129 Pacific L 58-86 33%     2 - 2 -25.9 -10.5 -16.7
  Tue, Nov 25 223 Bethune-Cookman W 61-54 55%     3 - 2 +3.4 -7.1 +11.2
  Fri, Nov 28 134 @Loyola Marymount W 71-68 25%     4 - 2 +7.7 +5.5 +2.3
  Sat, Dec 6 137 @Duquesne L 75-84 25%     4 - 3 -4.4 +4.9 -9.5
  Tue, Dec 9 138 Columbia W 77-73 OT 46%     5 - 3 +2.5 -5.4 +7.4
  Sat, Dec 13 322 Central Michigan W 78-55 83%     6 - 3 +10.4 +5.5 +7.0
  Wed, Dec 17 329 Albany W 77-66 85%    
  Sun, Dec 21 155 @Marist L 62-68 30%    
  Mon, Dec 29 230 @Hampton L 67-68 44%    
  Wed, Dec 31 121 @William & Mary L 73-81 22%    
  Sat, Jan 3 311 N.C. A&T W 76-67 80%    
  Thu, Jan 8 271 @Drexel W 68-67 51%    
  Sat, Jan 10 109 UNC Wilmington L 68-71 38%    
  Thu, Jan 15 115 Hofstra L 67-70 40%    
  Sat, Jan 17 172 College of Charleston W 71-69 55%    
  Thu, Jan 22 211 @Northeastern L 69-71 42%    
  Thu, Jan 29 226 @Campbell L 72-74 44%    
  Sat, Jan 31 192 @Elon L 73-76 37%    
  Thu, Feb 5 206 Monmouth W 72-69 62%    
  Sat, Feb 7 211 Northeastern W 72-68 64%    
  Thu, Feb 12 139 @Towson L 63-70 26%    
  Mon, Feb 16 271 Drexel W 70-64 72%    
  Sat, Feb 21 230 Hampton W 70-65 66%    
  Thu, Feb 26 206 @Monmouth L 69-72 41%    
  Sat, Feb 28 115 @Hofstra L 64-73 22%    
  Tue, Mar 3 139 Towson L 66-67 47%    
Projected Record 16 - 13 9 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 1.9 2.1 0.9 0.2 0.0 5.6 2nd
3rd 0.5 2.4 2.9 1.1 0.1 0.0 7.1 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 2.7 4.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 8.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.4 5.0 2.1 0.3 0.0 10.1 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 5.5 3.2 0.3 0.0 10.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 4.7 4.5 0.6 0.0 10.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 3.5 5.0 1.1 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.1 2.1 5.1 1.9 0.1 9.4 9th
10th 0.1 1.4 4.0 2.7 0.3 8.4 10th
11th 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.6 0.5 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.2 0.9 2.2 1.8 0.5 0.0 5.6 12th
13th 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.0 2.8 13th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 3.9 6.8 9.6 12.8 13.7 13.9 12.1 9.5 6.9 4.3 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
16-2 93.2% 0.2    0.2 0.0
15-3 77.6% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
14-4 52.5% 1.2    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-5 21.8% 0.9    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
12-6 4.1% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 3.4% 3.4 1.5 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.0% 0.0
17-1 0.1% 40.0% 40.0% 11.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-2 0.2% 21.6% 21.6% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-3 0.8% 21.2% 21.2% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
14-4 2.2% 15.4% 15.4% 13.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.9
13-5 4.3% 12.9% 12.9% 13.4 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.8
12-6 6.9% 9.2% 9.2% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 6.3
11-7 9.5% 6.5% 6.5% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 8.9
10-8 12.1% 3.7% 3.7% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 11.7
9-9 13.9% 2.2% 2.2% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.6
8-10 13.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 13.5
7-11 12.8% 0.9% 0.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.7
6-12 9.6% 0.8% 0.8% 15.8 0.0 0.1 9.5
5-13 6.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 6.8
4-14 3.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 3.9
3-15 2.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.1
2-16 0.7% 0.7
1-17 0.2% 0.2
0-18 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 13.9 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 96.4 0.0%