Campbell
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.8 #206
Expected Predictive Rating -2.2 #208
Pace 74.3 #48
Improvement +0.8 #144

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #153 C- C+ D+ A- B+
Defense #272 D+ D C C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 47% #15 1.09 #266 +3.1 #80
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #303 0.76 #174 -2.2 #289
Three Pointers 39% #230 0.94 #273 -2.7 #279
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #234 -1.8 #234
Freethrows 0.39 #6 71% #218 0.28 #13
Second Chance 33.7% #94 1.06 #157 0.36 #101
Turnovers 18.1% #288
Total Offense +0.2 #153

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 46% #18 1.27 #313 -7.0 #358
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #77 0.75 #163 -1.2 #285
Three Pointers 30% #364 1.09 #288 +4.5 #28
1st FG Attempt 1.09 #297 -3.7 #296
Freethrows 0.29 #160 74% #246 0.21 #164
Second Chance 31.1% #201 1.23 #350 0.38 #322
Turnovers 16.9% #151
Total Defense -3.1 #272

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.7% #30 0.2% #185
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -6.1% #286 7.1% #310
Possession Length 16.7 #113 16.4 #40
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.21 #69 0.19 #258
Improvement +2.7 #53 -1.9 #293

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.0% 3.5% 1.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 9.9% 13.4% 3.1%
.500 or above in Conference 36.3% 45.3% 18.6%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.1% 3.0% 12.2%
First Four0.7% 0.6% 0.9%
First Round2.7% 3.3% 1.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Stony Brook (Home) - 66.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 8
Quad 34 - 74 - 15
Quad 49 - 313 - 18


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 38 @Wisconsin L 64 - 96 5% -8  0 - 1 -16 -3 D+ A- F -12 D+ F C
 Thu, Nov 6 56 @West Virginia L 65 - 73 8% -6  0 - 2 +5 +2 D+ B C +2 A+ D+ C
 Sun, Nov 9 272 Western Michigan W 91 - 82 73% +6  1 - 2 -0 -0 B- C F -1 C+ B C+
 Wed, Nov 19 215 @Weber St. L 85 - 91 40% -5  1 - 3 -6 +6 F+ A+ D -12 F D C
 Fri, Nov 21 158 Texas Arlington W 71 - 67 39% -4  2 - 3 +4 -1 C- A+ F +5 B+ C+ C
 Tue, Nov 25 68 @Wake Forest L 51 - 99 10% -26  2 - 4 -37 -17 F D B- -18 F F F+
 Tue, Dec 2 112 @Penn St. L 76 - 87 19% -5  2 - 5 -5 +1 C A F+ -5 F+ A+ F+
 Sun, Dec 14 294 Ball St. W 69 - 64 77% -1  3 - 5 -6 -8 F F+ C +3 B D+ A-
 Wed, Dec 17 11 @Gonzaga L 70 - 98 2% -14  3 - 6 -5 -2 C+ C- F+ +1 D C+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 76 @Minnesota L 50 - 78 11% -18  3 - 7 -17 -9 D D- F -12 F F B-
 Tue, Dec 23 243 Green Bay W 102 - 79 68% +9  4 - 7 +15 +28 A+ A+ B- -11 F D A-
 Mon, Dec 29 128 @Hofstra L 72 - 86 23% -12  4 - 8 0 - 1 -9 +4 F+ B+ A- -13 D F A
 Wed, Dec 31 185 @Monmouth W 68 - 65 35% -2  5 - 8 1 - 1 +4 +4 F A+ F +1 B+ C F
 Sat, Jan 3 259 Northeastern W 97 - 82 70% +8  6 - 8 2 - 1 +7 +15 A D A+ -8 D D+ D+
 Thu, Jan 8 234 Hampton W 86 - 72 66% +13  7 - 8 3 - 1 +7 +6 C F D+ -0 C- C A+
 Sat, Jan 10 192 @Elon L 82 - 83 36% +6  7 - 9 3 - 2 -0 +9 B D- A- -9 D+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 122 @UNC Wilmington L 75 - 78 21% +4  7 - 10 3 - 3 +3 +8 A+ F+ F -5 D- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 22 162 @College of Charleston L 83 - 87 29% -3  7 - 11 3 - 4 -1 +8 B- A+ F -9 F D B+
 Sat, Jan 24 185 Monmouth L 73 - 88 58% -5  7 - 12 3 - 5 -20 -2 D- D+ A+ -17 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 29 236 Stony Brook W 77 - 73 66%
 Sat, Jan 31 132 @William & Mary L 81 - 89 23%
 Thu, Feb 5 201 Drexel W 73 - 70 61%
 Sat, Feb 7 292 @N.C. A&T W 82 - 80 56%
 Sat, Feb 14 162 College of Charleston W 80 - 79 51%
 Thu, Feb 19 132 William & Mary L 84 - 86 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 122 UNC Wilmington L 75 - 77 41%
 Thu, Feb 26 201 @Drexel L 70 - 73 38%
 Sat, Feb 28 164 @Towson L 69 - 74 31%
 Tue, Mar 3 292 N.C. A&T W 85 - 77 76%
Totals 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3 +0 C- C+ D+ -3 D+ D C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 0.7 0.1 1.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.3 2.2 0.3 0.0 3.8 3rd
4th 0.5 3.8 1.2 0.0 5.5 4th
5th 0.0 3.0 4.1 0.3 7.4 5th
6th 0.8 7.5 1.7 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.1 4.8 5.9 0.2 11.0 7th
8th 0.0 1.7 9.0 1.9 0.0 12.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.5 6.7 6.1 0.2 13.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 3.7 8.5 1.3 13.7 10th
11th 0.1 2.5 6.9 3.1 0.1 12.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.8 2.6 1.8 0.1 5.4 12th
13th 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.1 2.2 13th
Total 0.3 1.9 6.2 13.0 20.2 22.1 18.8 11.2 4.8 1.2 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 48.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
12-6 17.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
11-7 0.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.2% 18.6% 18.6% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
12-6 1.2% 11.5% 11.5% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
11-7 4.8% 10.4% 10.4% 14.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 4.3
10-8 11.2% 5.8% 5.8% 14.9 0.1 0.6 10.6
9-9 18.8% 3.3% 3.3% 15.2 0.5 0.1 18.2
8-10 22.1% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.1 0.4 21.6
7-11 20.2% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.4 19.9
6-12 13.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 12.9
5-13 6.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 6.1
4-14 1.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.9
3-15 0.3% 0.3
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 3.0% 3.0% 0.0% 15.1 97.0 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%