Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+1.5#139
Expected Predictive Rating+4.3#110
Pace60.3#363
Improvement+0.6#145

Offense
Total Offense+0.9#142
First Shot+0.3#163
After Offensive Rebound+0.6#143
Layup/Dunks+1.0#134
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.1#22
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#254
Freethrows-2.4#311
Improvement+3.3#14

Defense
Total Defense+0.6#144
First Shot-1.6#227
After Offensive Rebounds+2.2#48
Layups/Dunks-3.1#289
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.3#284
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.3#62
Freethrows-0.4#210
Improvement-2.7#341
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 12.7% 18.2% 12.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.2 12.4 13.2
.500 or above 83.5% 94.8% 83.0%
.500 or above in Conference 83.8% 89.6% 83.5%
Conference Champion 17.0% 26.5% 16.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.9% 0.1% 0.9%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round12.7% 18.2% 12.4%
Second Round1.1% 1.3% 1.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.4% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kansas (Away) - 4.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 21 - 5
Quad 36 - 57 - 10
Quad 411 - 218 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 338 Loyola Maryland W 67-56 88%     1 - 0 -0.1 -8.0 +8.7
  Sat, Nov 8 8 @Houston L 48-65 3%     1 - 1 +5.9 -8.7 +13.3
  Fri, Nov 14 234 Norfolk St. W 51-41 79%     2 - 1 +2.9 -12.8 +17.5
  Tue, Nov 18 183 @James Madison L 75-81 50%     2 - 2 -4.6 +10.7 -16.1
  Mon, Nov 24 116 Rhode Island W 62-55 43%     3 - 2 +10.3 +0.7 +10.6
  Tue, Nov 25 108 Liberty W 72-69 41%     4 - 2 +6.8 +7.7 -0.5
  Wed, Nov 26 89 UC San Diego L 73-87 34%     4 - 3 -8.2 +8.4 -17.9
  Wed, Dec 3 161 Cornell W 93-80 67%     5 - 3 +9.9 +16.0 -5.8
  Sun, Dec 7 57 @Central Florida L 61-86 15%     5 - 4 -12.5 -2.3 -12.5
  Tue, Dec 16 17 @Kansas L 57-75 4%    
  Mon, Dec 22 254 Sacred Heart W 76-66 82%    
  Mon, Dec 29 121 @William & Mary L 72-77 34%    
  Wed, Dec 31 230 @Hampton W 66-64 59%    
  Sat, Jan 3 206 Monmouth W 72-65 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 115 Hofstra W 67-66 54%    
  Sat, Jan 10 211 @Northeastern W 69-67 56%    
  Thu, Jan 15 172 College of Charleston W 70-65 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 271 Drexel W 70-60 83%    
  Thu, Jan 22 192 @Elon W 73-72 52%    
  Sat, Jan 24 311 @N.C. A&T W 73-66 75%    
  Thu, Jan 29 109 UNC Wilmington W 67-66 53%    
  Sat, Jan 31 230 Hampton W 69-61 78%    
  Sat, Feb 7 115 @Hofstra L 64-69 33%    
  Thu, Feb 12 197 Stony Brook W 70-63 74%    
  Sat, Feb 14 206 @Monmouth W 69-68 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 271 @Drexel W 67-63 65%    
  Thu, Feb 26 192 Elon W 75-69 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 226 Campbell W 75-67 77%    
  Tue, Mar 3 197 @Stony Brook W 67-66 53%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 11 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.6 4.9 4.7 2.9 1.0 0.2 17.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 4.2 6.1 3.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 16.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 4.0 6.3 3.4 0.7 0.0 15.2 3rd
4th 0.3 3.3 6.1 2.9 0.4 0.0 13.0 4th
5th 0.1 2.0 5.3 2.7 0.4 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 4.2 3.0 0.4 0.0 8.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.4 3.0 0.5 0.0 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.8 0.0 4.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.0 0.1 2.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 1.6 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.9 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.3 2.4 4.4 7.2 10.3 12.9 14.1 14.4 12.6 9.5 5.9 3.0 1.0 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
17-1 99.7% 1.0    1.0 0.0
16-2 96.6% 2.9    2.5 0.4
15-3 79.5% 4.7    3.3 1.3 0.1
14-4 51.7% 4.9    2.4 2.0 0.5 0.1 0.0
13-5 20.8% 2.6    0.7 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.0
12-6 4.4% 0.6    0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1
11-7 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 17.0% 17.0 10.0 5.0 1.6 0.3 0.1



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0 0.2% 43.1% 43.1% 11.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
17-1 1.0% 30.1% 30.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.7
16-2 3.0% 32.8% 32.8% 12.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 2.0
15-3 5.9% 28.7% 28.7% 12.6 0.0 0.7 0.8 0.1 4.2
14-4 9.5% 23.2% 23.2% 12.8 0.0 0.7 1.2 0.3 0.0 7.3
13-5 12.6% 18.9% 18.9% 13.1 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.7 0.1 10.2
12-6 14.4% 15.3% 15.3% 13.5 0.2 1.0 0.9 0.1 12.2
11-7 14.1% 9.6% 9.6% 13.6 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 12.7
10-8 12.9% 5.2% 5.2% 14.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 12.2
9-9 10.3% 4.7% 4.7% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 9.8
8-10 7.2% 2.4% 2.4% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 7.0
7-11 4.4% 1.8% 1.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 4.4
6-12 2.4% 1.6% 1.6% 15.9 0.0 0.0 2.4
5-13 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
4-14 0.6% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 0.5
3-15 0.2% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.0 0.2
2-16 0.1% 0.1
1-17 0.0% 0.0
0-18
Total 100% 12.7% 12.7% 0.0% 13.2 0.0 0.0 0.3 2.8 5.2 3.2 0.9 0.2 87.3 0.0%