Towson
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.4 #164
Expected Predictive Rating -0.2 #164
Pace 60.9 #355
Improvement -0.9 #228

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #255 D C C D+ D-
Defense #102 C+ B- C B- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #308 1.12 #229 -3.5 #300
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #25 0.78 #133 +4.1 #26
Three Pointers 36% #286 0.83 #356 -5.9 #339
1st FG Attempt 0.91 #324 -5.3 #325
Freethrows 0.26 #297 71% #231 0.19 #296
Second Chance 36.7% #31 0.88 #348 0.32 #162
Turnovers 16.8% #203
Total Offense -2.9 #255

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #200 1.15 #172 +0.3 #161
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #176 0.84 #307 -0.9 #251
Three Pointers 41% #172 0.87 #27 +3.0 #68
1st FG Attempt 0.97 #102 +2.4 #104
Freethrows 0.27 #88 72% #163 0.20 #97
Second Chance 25.9% #35 1.08 #232 0.28 #88
Turnovers 16.2% #201
Total Defense +2.5 #102

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.1% #340 0.0% #155
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -7.5% #303 -4.7% #92
Possession Length 18.7 #306 18.0 #289
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.16 #187 0.15 #105
Improvement -1.7 #270 +0.7 #147

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.5% 9.4% 5.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.0 13.8 14.3
.500 or above 68.7% 81.7% 55.6%
.500 or above in Conference 64.5% 78.6% 50.2%
Conference Champion 1.1% 2.1% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.7% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Round7.5% 9.4% 5.6%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UNC Wilmington (Home) - 50.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 30 - 3
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 11 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 323 Loyola Maryland W 67 - 56 82% +4  1 - 0 +1 -7 D- F+ C- +9 A A+ C-
 Sat, Nov 8 4 @Houston L 48 - 65 2% -9  1 - 1 +7 -9 C- D+ F +15 B+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 14 295 Norfolk St. W 51 - 41 83% -1  2 - 1 -1 -16 F F B+ +17 A+ D F
 Tue, Nov 18 210 @James Madison L 75 - 81 49% -3  2 - 2 -6 +10 C- B- C+ -17 F A+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 111 Rhode Island W 62 - 55 35% +2  3 - 2 +11 +1 D+ D- B- +10 A+ F A
 Tue, Nov 25 95 Liberty W 72 - 69 28% -1  4 - 2 +9 +7 C A+ B- +2 B+ C+ D-
 Wed, Nov 26 114 UC San Diego L 73 - 87 35% -13  4 - 3 -11 +9 D+ C+ B- -21 F C+ D-
 Wed, Dec 3 176 Cornell W 93 - 80 64% +3  5 - 3 +9 +13 B A+ D+ -4 C- A+ C
 Sun, Dec 7 49 @Central Florida L 61 - 86 10% -17  5 - 4 -11 -1 C- B+ F -13 C- F C-
 Tue, Dec 16 17 @Kansas L 49 - 73 3% -14  5 - 5 -3 -8 F+ C+ D +2 A F C+
 Mon, Dec 22 277 Sacred Heart W 72 - 47 81% +9  6 - 5 +15 -2 C+ F D +20 A+ B- A
 Mon, Dec 29 132 @William & Mary L 70 - 84 31% -8  6 - 6 0 - 1 -9 +0 C+ F B+ -9 F A+ F+
 Wed, Dec 31 234 @Hampton L 62 - 63 53% -1  6 - 7 0 - 2 -2 -0 F B- B- -2 C C B
 Sat, Jan 3 185 Monmouth L 48 - 62 67% -7  6 - 8 0 - 3 -19 -20 F F C -0 C B- A+
 Thu, Jan 8 128 Hofstra L 67 - 78 53% -7  6 - 9 0 - 4 -12 -6 D C F -7 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 10 259 @Northeastern W 87 - 78 57% +6  7 - 9 1 - 4 +7 +12 A A+ F -5 C- B+ F
 Thu, Jan 15 162 College of Charleston W 61 - 52 60% +9  8 - 9 2 - 4 +6 -11 F B D- +18 A+ B A+
 Mon, Jan 19 201 Drexel W 59 - 58 69% -7  9 - 9 3 - 4 -5 -8 F B- C- +3 D+ A- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 192 @Elon W 72 - 59 45% +5  10 - 9 4 - 4 +14 +9 F A+ A+ +7 A B A+
 Sat, Jan 24 292 @N.C. A&T L 73 - 80 65% -4  10 - 10 4 - 5 -11 -4 C- F+ F+ -7 F A- B+
 Thu, Jan 29 122 UNC Wilmington L 64 - 65 50%
 Sat, Jan 31 234 Hampton W 67 - 60 74%
 Sat, Feb 7 128 @Hofstra L 64 - 69 31%
 Thu, Feb 12 236 Stony Brook W 68 - 61 74%
 Sat, Feb 14 185 @Monmouth L 63 - 65 43%
 Sat, Feb 21 201 @Drexel L 61 - 62 47%
 Thu, Feb 26 192 Elon W 73 - 68 66%
 Sat, Feb 28 206 Campbell W 74 - 69 69%
 Tue, Mar 3 236 @Stony Brook W 65 - 64 53%
Totals 15 - 14 9 - 9 +0 -3 D C C +3 C+ B- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.4 1.1 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 2.4 0.4 4.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.1 5.6 1.6 0.1 9.4 3rd
4th 0.6 7.6 4.7 0.3 13.2 4th
5th 0.0 4.2 8.1 0.9 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.8 9.5 3.0 0.0 13.3 6th
7th 0.1 4.5 7.7 0.3 12.6 7th
8th 0.9 7.9 1.9 10.7 8th
9th 0.1 3.4 5.2 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 4.5 1.1 6.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 2.3 1.7 0.1 4.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.1 1.1 12th
13th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 13th
Total 0.1 1.1 4.2 10.6 19.6 24.1 21.3 13.3 4.9 0.9 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 45.2% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
12-6 12.1% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4
13-5 0.9% 23.7% 23.7% 12.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.7
12-6 4.9% 17.5% 17.5% 13.3 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.0 4.0
11-7 13.3% 14.6% 14.6% 13.5 0.1 0.9 0.8 0.1 11.4
10-8 21.3% 9.3% 9.3% 13.8 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.3 0.0 19.3
9-9 24.1% 5.1% 5.1% 14.4 0.1 0.6 0.5 0.0 22.9
8-10 19.6% 4.5% 4.5% 15.0 0.1 0.7 0.1 18.7
7-11 10.6% 3.0% 3.0% 15.5 0.2 0.2 10.3
6-12 4.2% 2.5% 2.5% 15.8 0.0 0.1 4.1
5-13 1.1% 1.1
4-14 0.1% 5.0% 5.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 14.0 92.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 12.5 2.3 52.3 43.2 2.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.3%