Hofstra
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.9 #128
Expected Predictive Rating +2.2 #129
Pace 63.3 #319
Improvement -2.6 #296

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #95 C B- C C+ D+
Defense #216 B- D+ D C- B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #336 1.16 #176 -4.2 #317
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #111 0.68 #290 +0.3 #165
Three Pointers 45% #102 1.13 #34 +4.7 #43
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #152 +0.8 #154
Freethrows 0.31 #170 78% #18 0.24 #114
Second Chance 33.9% #89 1.10 #104 0.37 #74
Turnovers 16.1% #155
Total Offense +3.2 #95

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #312 1.10 #102 +4.0 #56
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #91 0.66 #39 +0.0 #185
Three Pointers 43% #106 1.02 #190 -1.3 #240
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #87 +2.7 #91
Freethrows 0.31 #218 75% #305 0.23 #254
Second Chance 31.5% #225 1.14 #296 0.36 #276
Turnovers 14.2% #311
Total Defense -1.3 #216

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.8% #300 -1.4% #66
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.5% #118 -4.2% #100
Possession Length 18.4 #283 17.7 #242
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.09 #357 0.12 #31
Improvement +3.0 #43 -5.6 #363

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 17.2% 19.3% 12.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.0 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 97.2% 98.9% 93.6%
.500 or above in Conference 89.7% 94.6% 79.5%
Conference Champion 8.1% 11.1% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.3%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round17.2% 19.3% 12.7%
Second Round1.0% 1.2% 0.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.2% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: College of Charleston (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 22 - 22 - 3
Quad 37 - 69 - 9
Quad 410 - 419 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 49 @Central Florida L 78 - 82 14% -1  0 - 1 +10 +7 B- C C+ +2 B+ D- A+
 Fri, Nov 7 227 @Iona L 73 - 81 60% -14  0 - 2 -9 -3 C+ D F -6 C D B
 Fri, Nov 14 322 @Bucknell W 83 - 77 80% +7  1 - 2 -1 +4 B- F+ C -5 C- F A+
 Wed, Nov 19 143 @Temple L 76 - 81 41% -1  1 - 3 -1 +5 B- D- C -6 D- A B-
 Fri, Nov 28 200 La Salle W 63 - 58 67% +3  2 - 3 +2 -7 C- F D- +10 A- C- B+
 Sat, Nov 29 205 Merrimack W 78 - 58 68% +12  3 - 3 +17 +9 B D D- +9 B A+ D+
 Sun, Nov 30 193 @Penn W 77 - 60 54% +4  4 - 3 +18 +8 B+ A F +11 A+ D- D+
 Wed, Dec 3 168 @Columbia L 70 - 72 49% -6  4 - 4 +0 +2 D A- D -2 C- A+ D
 Sun, Dec 7 93 @Pittsburgh W 80 - 73 25% +7  5 - 4 +16 +21 A+ C A+ -5 F+ A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 77 @Syracuse W 70 - 69 20% +0  6 - 4 +12 +17 A+ A- B- -5 C+ F+ C+
 Sun, Dec 21 178 Quinnipiac W 74 - 66 73% +2  7 - 4 +4 +3 F A+ D+ +1 A+ F+ F+
 Mon, Dec 29 206 Campbell W 86 - 72 77% +12  8 - 4 1 - 0 +8 +14 C+ A+ F+ -5 A F+ F
 Sat, Jan 3 201 @Drexel W 70 - 67 56% +8  9 - 4 2 - 0 +3 +12 B- A+ C -8 B- C- F
 Thu, Jan 8 164 @Towson W 78 - 67 47% +7  10 - 4 3 - 0 +14 +13 D+ A+ A +1 B- C- B+
 Sat, Jan 10 185 Monmouth W 67 - 64 OT 74% -1  11 - 4 4 - 0 -2 -7 F C C +5 A+ B+ C-
 Thu, Jan 15 236 @Stony Brook L 71 - 76 62% -6  11 - 5 4 - 1 -6 +10 C C A- -17 D- D- F
 Sat, Jan 17 192 Elon L 85 - 89 75% -3  11 - 6 4 - 2 -9 +11 A F+ D+ -20 F B- F
 Thu, Jan 22 292 @N.C. A&T L 78 - 79 73% +5  11 - 7 4 - 3 -5 +7 D C B+ -13 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 24 132 @William & Mary L 82 - 89 39% -5  11 - 8 4 - 4 -2 +15 C B+ A+ -18 C- F F
 Thu, Jan 29 162 College of Charleston W 77 - 72 68%
 Sat, Jan 31 185 @Monmouth W 70 - 69 53%
 Thu, Feb 5 259 Northeastern W 83 - 73 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 164 Towson W 69 - 64 69%
 Thu, Feb 12 162 @College of Charleston L 74 - 75 46%
 Sat, Feb 14 122 @UNC Wilmington L 69 - 73 36%
 Thu, Feb 19 234 Hampton W 74 - 65 80%
 Sat, Feb 21 259 @Northeastern W 80 - 76 65%
 Sat, Feb 28 236 Stony Brook W 75 - 66 80%
 Tue, Mar 3 201 Drexel W 70 - 63 76%
Totals 18 - 11 11 - 7 +2 +3 C B- C -1 B- D+ D




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.2 2.2 4.0 1.7 8.1 1st
2nd 0.3 4.5 10.0 4.6 0.3 19.7 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.8 10.8 5.5 0.4 19.4 3rd
4th 0.6 8.3 7.1 0.7 16.6 4th
5th 0.0 3.1 8.0 1.3 0.0 12.3 5th
6th 0.4 6.1 2.6 0.0 9.2 6th
7th 0.0 1.7 3.7 0.2 5.7 7th
8th 0.3 2.8 0.8 3.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.8 1.6 0.1 2.5 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 1.0 0.3 1.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.0 0.7 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
13th 0.0 0.0 0.0 13th
Total 0.1 0.7 2.5 6.9 14.3 22.1 23.8 18.5 9.0 2.0 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 83.3% 1.7    1.1 0.6 0.0
13-5 44.5% 4.0    1.3 2.0 0.7 0.1
12-6 12.1% 2.2    0.2 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.1
11-7 0.7% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 8.1% 8.1 2.6 3.3 1.6 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 2.0% 34.8% 34.8% 11.8 0.2 0.5 0.0 1.3
13-5 9.0% 29.3% 29.3% 12.6 0.0 1.2 1.3 0.1 6.4
12-6 18.5% 24.8% 24.8% 12.8 0.0 1.3 2.7 0.6 0.0 13.9
11-7 23.8% 19.9% 19.9% 13.1 0.0 0.8 2.9 1.1 0.0 19.1
10-8 22.1% 12.7% 12.7% 13.3 0.2 1.6 0.9 0.1 19.3
9-9 14.3% 8.5% 8.5% 13.7 0.0 0.5 0.6 0.1 13.1
8-10 6.9% 5.9% 5.9% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 6.5
7-11 2.5% 4.1% 4.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 2.4
6-12 0.7% 2.2% 2.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.7
5-13 0.1% 4.0% 4.0% 16.0 0.0 0.1
4-14
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 17.2% 17.2% 0.0% 13.0 82.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.7% 100.0% 11.8 25.0 68.6 6.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.5%