Monmouth
Colonial Athletic
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.9 #185
Expected Predictive Rating -3.5 #222
Pace 66.9 #234
Improvement +3.1 #54

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #266 D+ C C- C D+
Defense #123 C- B- C+ B- D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 38% #195 1.09 #272 -1.7 #245
2 Pt. Jumpers 25% #86 0.67 #307 +0.7 #141
Three Pointers 37% #273 1.01 #202 -2.4 #263
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #280 -3.4 #280
Freethrows 0.30 #210 72% #196 0.21 #199
Second Chance 30.5% #190 1.08 #123 0.33 #149
Turnovers 17.3% #238
Total Offense -3.2 #266

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.12 #136 -0.7 #200
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #265 0.74 #147 +1.1 #109
Three Pointers 41% #175 1.08 #277 -1.5 #255
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #209 -1.0 #211
Freethrows 0.27 #89 71% #90 0.19 #80
Second Chance 32.7% #272 0.84 #8 0.27 #72
Turnovers 17.6% #99
Total Defense +1.4 #123

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #274 1.0% #264
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.4% #270 1.0% #203
Possession Length 18.0 #238 17.8 #254
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.20 #92 0.17 #194
Improvement -1.7 #277 +4.8 #8

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.9% 5.4% 3.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.1
.500 or above 35.6% 40.7% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 64.1% 70.3% 40.5%
Conference Champion 1.7% 2.1% 0.4%
Last Place in Conference 1.4% 0.5% 5.0%
First Four0.5% 0.4% 0.6%
First Round4.8% 5.2% 3.1%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: N.C. A&T (Home) - 79.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 65 - 10
Quad 410 - 715 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 200 @La Salle L 60 - 73 41% -3  0 - 1 -13 -9 D- C+ F -5 C- B- C
 Thu, Nov 13 57 @Seton Hall L 58 - 70 9% -2  0 - 2 +1 -1 F A+ F +1 B- A+ D-
 Tue, Nov 18 77 @Syracuse L 73 - 78 13% -5  0 - 3 +6 +5 C+ D B- +1 C C+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 208 Robert Morris W 71 - 70 OT 65% -1  1 - 3 -5 -5 F B C +0 B C C-
 Fri, Nov 28 294 Ball St. W 80 - 73 71% +4  2 - 3 -1 +8 C B A -9 F B C-
 Sat, Nov 29 274 Le Moyne L 79 - 83 67% -1  2 - 4 -10 +4 F A+ B+ -15 F C- C+
 Sun, Nov 30 316 @Lafayette W 88 - 74 67% +13  3 - 4 +8 +13 A+ F C- -5 D C+ C
 Wed, Dec 3 213 Princeton W 63 - 58 66% +3  4 - 4 -1 -9 D F C +8 D+ A+ A+
 Sat, Dec 6 113 @Georgia Tech L 67 - 79 21% -2  4 - 5 -6 -1 D- C+ A+ -4 C- B- A-
 Sun, Dec 14 271 @Fairfield L 65 - 73 55% -0  4 - 6 -11 -4 D D C- -8 F+ D+ C
 Wed, Dec 17 178 Quinnipiac L 75 - 85 60% -15  4 - 7 -14 -1 D+ F D+ -13 F C C-
 Sun, Dec 21 303 Lehigh W 76 - 62 81% +7  5 - 7 +3 +2 A F F +2 F B- A+
 Wed, Dec 31 206 Campbell L 65 - 68 65% +2  5 - 8 0 - 1 -9 -7 F D+ A+ -2 A F+ A
 Sat, Jan 3 164 @Towson W 62 - 48 33% +7  6 - 8 1 - 1 +17 -0 C C F +18 A A+ C
 Thu, Jan 8 132 William & Mary W 81 - 70 48% +3  7 - 8 2 - 1 +10 +6 C+ A- A- +4 B D- A+
 Sat, Jan 10 128 @Hofstra L 64 - 67 OT 26% +1  7 - 9 2 - 2 +2 -10 F F+ D +12 A+ A C+
 Thu, Jan 15 201 Drexel L 51 - 73 64% -14  7 - 10 2 - 3 -28 -13 F C- F -18 F F B
 Mon, Jan 19 259 Northeastern W 81 - 68 73% +1  8 - 10 3 - 3 +5 -0 D B- A+ +5 C A+ A+
 Thu, Jan 22 234 @Hampton L 63 - 65 47% -3  8 - 11 3 - 4 -3 -4 D B F +0 B- D C
 Sat, Jan 24 206 @Campbell W 88 - 73 42% +5  9 - 11 4 - 4 +15 +11 A A F +4 B- A+ F
 Thu, Jan 29 292 N.C. A&T W 78 - 69 79%
 Sat, Jan 31 128 Hofstra L 69 - 70 47%
 Thu, Feb 5 236 @Stony Brook L 67 - 68 47%
 Thu, Feb 12 201 @Drexel L 64 - 66 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 164 Towson W 65 - 63 57%
 Thu, Feb 19 122 @UNC Wilmington L 64 - 72 25%
 Sat, Feb 21 162 @College of Charleston L 69 - 74 32%
 Thu, Feb 26 236 Stony Brook W 70 - 65 69%
 Sat, Feb 28 192 Elon W 75 - 72 62%
 Tue, Mar 3 259 @Northeastern W 76 - 75 51%
Totals 14 - 16 9 - 9 -2 -3 D+ C C- +1 C- B- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Colonial Athletic Finish

0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.2 1.7 1st
2nd 0.2 2.4 3.2 0.8 0.0 6.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 5.6 1.8 0.1 9.5 3rd
4th 0.7 7.4 4.4 0.3 0.0 12.8 4th
5th 0.0 3.9 7.9 0.8 12.6 5th
6th 1.0 9.2 2.8 0.1 13.0 6th
7th 0.1 4.5 6.7 0.3 11.5 7th
8th 1.1 7.7 1.9 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 3.8 4.3 0.1 8.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 4.6 0.9 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.4 2.4 1.6 0.0 4.5 11th
12th 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 1.4 12th
13th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 13th
Total 0.2 1.3 4.7 11.3 18.5 22.4 20.6 13.2 5.9 1.7 0.2 Total



Colonial Athletic Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 90.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1
13-5 47.6% 0.8    0.2 0.4 0.2 0.0
12-6 11.2% 0.7    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
11-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
10-8 0.0%
9-9 0.0%
Total 1.7% 1.7 0.4 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
18-0
17-1
16-2
15-3
14-4 0.2% 23.8% 23.8% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
13-5 1.7% 14.8% 14.8% 13.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
12-6 5.9% 13.7% 13.7% 14.1 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 5.1
11-7 13.2% 10.1% 10.1% 14.5 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.0 11.9
10-8 20.6% 5.6% 5.6% 15.0 0.1 0.9 0.1 19.5
9-9 22.4% 2.9% 2.9% 15.2 0.5 0.1 21.8
8-10 18.5% 2.2% 2.2% 15.9 0.1 0.4 18.0
7-11 11.3% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.2 11.1
6-12 4.7% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 4.6
5-13 1.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 1.2
4-14 0.2% 0.2
3-15
2-16
1-17
0-18
Total 100% 4.9% 4.9% 0.0% 14.8 95.1 0.0%