Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
108 Liberty 23.7%   13   4 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +3.8      +3.1 99 +0.7 142 64.4 310 +1.9 140 0.0 1
126 Sam Houston St. 16.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 11 13 - 7 +2.4      +2.4 112 0.0 167 73.3 76 +6.4 92 0.0 1
132 New Mexico St. 13.6%   4 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 11 12 - 8 +1.7      +0.5 151 +1.2 131 63.7 319 +1.5 152 0.0 1
145 Western Kentucky 10.5%   5 - 3 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 9 +0.8      +0.1 167 +0.8 140 77.8 23 +4.2 112 0.0 1
154 Middle Tennessee 9.1%   3 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 14 11 - 9 +0.2      +0.3 160 -0.1 171 69.9 173 +3.6 118 0.0 1
160 Kennesaw St. 8.8%   5 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 12 11 - 9 +0.1      +1.3 132 -1.3 211 81.8 8 +0.4 163 0.0 1
179 Louisiana Tech 5.9%   4 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 -1.3      -3.7 264 +2.4 97 62.2 347 -3.0 213 0.0 1
186 Florida International 5.3%   3 - 3 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 11 -1.7      -1.3 203 -0.3 174 75.6 42 -1.1 185 0.0 1
218 UTEP 3.1%   0 - 6 0 - 0 9 - 18 9 - 11 -3.4      -4.0 274 +0.6 146 63.6 322 -10.2 312 0.0 1
250 Missouri St. 1.4%   1 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -5.1      -2.9 243 -2.2 248 61.7 355 -9.8 308 0.0 1
252 Jacksonville St. 1.5%   1 - 5 0 - 0 9 - 19 7 - 13 -5.1      -4.8 299 -0.3 173 63.1 331 -12.8 333 0.0 1
282 Delaware 0.6%   3 - 6 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -6.5      -3.8 265 -2.8 265 65.3 290 -7.5 276 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Dec 10 282 Delaware 70 81 George Washington 58   
Wed, Dec 10 159 Marshall 77 145 Western Kentucky 61   
Wed, Dec 10 108 Liberty 45 29 North Carolina St. 85   
Fri, Dec 12 250 Missouri St. 57 77 Xavier 75   
Sat, Dec 13 132 New Mexico St. 70 83 Tulsa 83   
Sat, Dec 13 111 Hawaii 66 218 UTEP 61   
Sat, Dec 13 222 Cal St. Northridge 88 282 Delaware 66   
Sat, Dec 13 334 Georgia St. 77 252 Jacksonville St. 73   
Sat, Dec 13 325 Louisiana 44 179 Louisiana Tech 65   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 250 Missouri St. 75 300 Oral Roberts 69 71%   
Tue, Dec 16 186 Florida International 69 33 Miami (FL) 87 94%   
Tue, Dec 16 282 Delaware 69 347 Rider 61 79%   
Wed, Dec 17 160 Kennesaw St. 80 154 Middle Tennessee 83 62%   
Wed, Dec 17 157 Oregon St. 74 126 Sam Houston St. 73 53%   
Wed, Dec 17 179 Louisiana Tech 67 207 Tulane 69 55%   
Wed, Dec 17 257 Eastern Kentucky 68 252 Jacksonville St. 72 62%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 3.1 33.1 19.2 13.9 10.3 7.4 5.6 3.8 3.0 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2
Sam Houston St. 3.8 22.6 17.6 14.5 11.7 9.1 7.5 6.0 4.5 2.9 2.0 1.1 0.5
New Mexico St. 4.1 19.3 16.8 14.0 11.8 9.8 8.3 6.5 5.0 3.8 2.5 1.5 0.7
Western Kentucky 4.9 12.3 12.5 12.6 11.8 11.0 10.3 8.6 7.5 5.5 4.1 2.6 1.3
Middle Tennessee 5.1 11.3 12.1 11.9 11.5 10.5 9.8 9.1 7.7 6.4 4.8 3.2 1.6
Kennesaw St. 5.4 9.9 10.7 11.1 11.7 11.0 10.5 9.3 8.2 7.0 5.2 3.6 1.8
Louisiana Tech 6.1 6.3 8.2 9.4 10.3 10.5 11.1 10.3 9.8 8.4 7.3 5.2 3.3
Florida International 6.6 5.1 6.4 7.8 9.0 9.7 10.2 10.6 10.7 10.0 9.0 7.1 4.4
UTEP 7.5 2.6 4.4 5.5 7.0 8.0 9.1 10.3 11.4 11.5 11.4 10.5 8.4
Missouri St. 8.7 1.1 2.0 3.0 4.0 5.3 6.7 8.5 10.7 12.3 14.3 16.2 16.0
Jacksonville St. 8.8 1.2 1.8 2.8 3.8 4.9 6.3 8.1 9.9 12.7 14.8 16.7 17.1
Delaware 9.5 0.3 0.8 1.5 2.2 3.1 4.6 6.5 8.9 12.2 15.1 20.1 24.7




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.6 4.0 6.2 8.8 10.9 13.2 13.8 12.8 10.6 7.7 4.5 2.0 0.4
Sam Houston St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.2 6.3 8.6 10.9 12.4 13.1 12.3 10.7 7.9 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.2
New Mexico St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 3.3 4.8 6.8 9.7 11.3 12.3 12.8 11.5 9.7 7.0 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.2
Western Kentucky 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.3 5.1 7.1 9.6 11.6 12.3 12.8 11.2 9.3 6.7 4.5 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.0
Middle Tennessee 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.7 5.7 7.9 10.0 11.5 12.0 11.8 10.7 8.9 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.5 4.2 6.5 8.4 10.1 12.1 12.4 11.9 10.1 8.2 5.6 3.5 1.8 0.6 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.8 7.9 10.3 11.5 12.5 12.2 10.3 8.7 6.1 3.9 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Florida International 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 5.1 7.3 9.6 11.0 11.9 12.4 10.8 9.1 7.0 4.6 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1
UTEP 9 - 11 0.1 0.4 1.4 2.9 5.1 7.5 9.6 11.5 12.1 12.0 10.7 9.2 6.8 4.9 3.1 1.7 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 7 - 13 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.8 8.6 11.0 12.8 12.8 11.7 10.3 8.0 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 7 - 13 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.2 9.2 11.5 12.7 12.9 11.6 9.8 7.4 5.4 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Delaware 6 - 14 0.5 2.2 5.0 8.6 11.8 14.0 14.3 12.7 10.4 8.0 5.2 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 33.1% 23.5 7.5 1.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 22.6% 15.0 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0
New Mexico St. 19.3% 12.3 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 12.3% 7.5 3.5 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 11.3% 6.6 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 9.9% 5.6 3.1 1.0 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Tech 6.3% 3.5 2.1 0.6 0.1 0.0
Florida International 5.1% 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
UTEP 2.6% 1.3 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Jacksonville St. 1.2% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Delaware 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.6 7.3 9.4 4.3 0.9 0.1 76.3 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.0 6.3 3.2 0.8 0.2 83.6 0.0%
New Mexico St. 13.6% 13.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4 3.2 5.4 3.4 1.0 0.2 86.4 0.0%
Western Kentucky 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.7 0.9 0.2 89.5 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.7 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 90.9 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.8% 8.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 3.3 2.8 1.1 0.2 91.2 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.5 2.2 1.4 0.5 94.1 0.0%
Florida International 5.3% 5.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.6 1.2 0.4 94.7 0.0%
UTEP 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.9 1.1 96.9 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.6 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 98.5 0.0%
Delaware 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 99.4 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 23.7% 0.1% 23.7% 3.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 16.4% 0.1% 16.4% 1.9% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 13.6% 0.1% 13.5% 1.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 10.5% 0.2% 10.5% 0.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 9.1% 0.3% 9.0% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 8.8% 0.1% 8.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 5.9% 0.2% 5.8% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 5.3% 0.3% 5.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 3.1% 0.8% 2.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.4% 0.4% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.5% 0.5% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.6% 0.2% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 98.7 0.0
2nd Round 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0