Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
95 Liberty 34.7%   13   14 - 3 9 - 0 +5.6      +5.2 69 +0.4 155 62.5 339 +10.0 60 +15.0 1
117 Sam Houston St. 18.3%   10 - 7 5 - 4 +3.0      +1.7 121 +1.3 125 73.2 68 +3.6 108 +1.5 4
141 New Mexico St. 7.8%   7 - 9 3 - 6 +1.2      +2.2 115 -1.0 208 65.5 276 -2.1 206 -4.9 10
144 Middle Tennessee 11.2%   8 - 8 5 - 3 +1.1      -0.8 187 +1.9 112 65.5 274 +2.4 124 +1.4 5
156 Kennesaw St. 7.1%   9 - 8 4 - 5 +0.3      +1.5 127 -1.3 215 78.9 11 -0.8 179 -1.3 6
166 Western Kentucky 5.4%   9 - 9 4 - 5 -0.5      -1.2 199 +0.7 139 74.9 41 +0.1 159 -1.6 8
177 Missouri St. 5.8%   9 - 8 6 - 3 -1.2      -0.7 185 -0.5 184 62.6 336 -0.4 169 +3.4 2
181 Florida International 3.7%   7 - 10 3 - 6 -1.5      -0.7 184 -0.8 195 77.4 19 -2.8 214 -3.8 9
196 Jacksonville St. 3.6%   7 - 9 5 - 3 -2.3      -1.7 215 -0.6 185 62.2 343 -3.9 224 +1.7 3
221 Louisiana Tech 1.8%   8 - 8 4 - 4 -3.5      -4.8 300 +1.2 126 60.2 361 -2.8 215 -1.5 7
256 UTEP 0.6%   4 - 13 3 - 6 -5.2      -3.9 279 -1.4 222 63.7 313 -7.0 275 -5.0 11
297 Delaware 0.1%   5 - 13 1 - 7 -7.7      -5.0 306 -2.7 260 61.2 351 -9.6 321 -12.8 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 24 181 Florida International 81 141 New Mexico St. 78   
Sat, Jan 24 177 Missouri St. 62 256 UTEP 57   
Sat, Jan 24 297 Delaware 51 95 Liberty 67   
Sat, Jan 24 117 Sam Houston St. 73 166 Western Kentucky 58   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Jan 28 156 Kennesaw St. 85 166 Western Kentucky 81 64%   
Wed, Jan 28 181 Florida International 76 196 Jacksonville St. 72 64%   
Wed, Jan 28 177 Missouri St. 72 117 Sam Houston St. 73 55%   
Wed, Jan 28 221 Louisiana Tech 62 256 UTEP 64 55%   
Wed, Jan 28 297 Delaware 63 141 New Mexico St. 74 87%   
Thu, Jan 29 95 Liberty 71 144 Middle Tennessee 69 56%   
Sat, Jan 31 156 Kennesaw St. 81 141 New Mexico St. 79 58%   
Sat, Jan 31 144 Middle Tennessee 75 166 Western Kentucky 71 67%   
Sat, Jan 31 196 Jacksonville St. 65 177 Missouri St. 69 65%   
Sat, Jan 31 221 Louisiana Tech 64 117 Sam Houston St. 73 81%   
Sat, Jan 31 297 Delaware 62 256 UTEP 68 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 1.1 95.6 3.5 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 3.3 4.1 39.6 22.7 14.0 8.7 5.0 2.9 1.7 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 6.5 0.1 3.6 8.2 11.5 13.3 13.8 13.5 13.1 11.0 7.4 4.3 0.3
Middle Tennessee 3.8 3.8 30.3 22.2 14.8 10.4 7.3 4.9 3.0 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.0
Kennesaw St. 5.6 0.4 8.8 12.9 14.3 14.5 13.5 12.3 10.0 7.4 4.1 1.9 0.1
Western Kentucky 6.4 0.2 4.5 9.1 10.6 12.9 13.7 13.7 13.0 10.5 7.8 3.6 0.3
Missouri St. 4.0 2.2 25.4 20.5 16.7 12.5 9.3 6.2 4.0 2.1 0.9 0.2
Florida International 7.9 0.0 1.3 2.9 5.4 7.7 9.9 12.0 14.7 17.1 17.7 10.0 1.2
Jacksonville St. 5.6 0.7 9.4 12.8 14.4 14.3 13.0 11.5 9.6 7.4 4.6 2.1 0.2
Louisiana Tech 7.6 0.1 2.7 4.5 6.6 8.4 10.0 12.5 14.3 15.0 15.1 9.7 1.2
UTEP 9.6 0.1 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.7 5.7 9.2 13.5 21.7 35.5 6.8
Delaware 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.8 1.7 4.7 14.1 78.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 17 - 3 22 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 4.8 11.1 18.7 23.3 22.2 13.3 4.3
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 17 - 11 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 9.0 15.8 21.3 22.4 16.9 7.4 1.7
New Mexico St. 9 - 11 13 - 14 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 8.5 15.2 20.4 21.1 16.4 9.5 3.3 0.6
Middle Tennessee 12 - 8 15 - 13 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.8 12.4 17.9 19.6 18.0 12.5 6.4 2.1 0.3
Kennesaw St. 10 - 10 15 - 13 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.2 10.8 17.4 20.7 20.2 13.9 7.1 2.4 0.4
Western Kentucky 10 - 10 15 - 14 0.1 0.9 3.4 8.4 15.7 20.2 20.5 16.1 9.6 4.0 0.9 0.1
Missouri St. 12 - 8 15 - 13 0.1 0.9 3.2 8.6 15.1 20.4 21.0 16.1 9.7 3.8 0.9 0.1
Florida International 8 - 12 12 - 16 0.1 1.1 4.2 9.6 17.1 21.4 20.1 14.7 7.9 3.0 0.7 0.1
Jacksonville St. 10 - 10 12 - 16 0.3 1.5 5.1 11.4 16.7 19.9 18.8 13.8 7.8 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 13 - 15 0.7 3.4 8.9 15.5 19.9 19.4 15.2 9.8 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
UTEP 7 - 13 8 - 20 1.3 6.2 14.8 22.2 22.2 17.3 9.7 4.5 1.4 0.4 0.0
Delaware 4 - 16 8 - 22 5.7 15.6 23.6 22.9 16.7 9.3 4.2 1.5 0.4 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 95.6% 89.7 5.2 0.6 0.1 0.0
Sam Houston St. 4.1% 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
New Mexico St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 3.8% 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Kennesaw St. 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 2.2% 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
Florida International 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 0.7% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
UTEP
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 34.7% 34.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.1 0.2 6.4 20.8 6.9 0.3 65.3 0.1%
Sam Houston St. 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 5.6 8.7 3.2 0.4 0.0 81.7 0.0%
New Mexico St. 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.9 2.6 2.3 1.4 0.6 92.2 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 4.9 3.3 1.0 0.1 88.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 2.4 2.7 1.2 0.2 92.9 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 0.3 1.8 1.8 1.2 0.4 94.6 0.0%
Missouri St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.2 2.4 1.9 0.2 94.2 0.0%
Florida International 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.2 0.9 96.3 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.7 0.8 96.4 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 98.2 0.0%
UTEP 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Delaware 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.1 99.9 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 7.6% 0.1 92.4 7.6
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 34.7% 0.0% 34.7% 4.5% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 18.3% 0.0% 18.3% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 7.8% 0.3% 7.8% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.2% 0.0% 11.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 7.1% 0.1% 7.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.4% 0.1% 5.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 5.8% 0.1% 5.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 3.7% 0.5% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 3.6% 0.4% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 1.8% 0.3% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%