Liberty
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +5.6 #95
Expected Predictive Rating +10.0 #60
Pace 62.5 #339
Improvement -0.2 #194

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #69 A- F+ A- D- A+
Defense #155 C D C+ B+ C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #5 1.27 #69 +8.7 #5
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #362 0.63 #335 -5.5 #364
Three Pointers 44% #114 1.18 #18 +5.3 #35
1st FG Attempt 1.19 #13 +8.4 #12
Freethrows 0.24 #334 68% #301 0.17 #344
Second Chance 20.4% #360 0.98 #267 0.20 #359
Turnovers 12.8% #15
Total Offense +5.2 #69

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #221 1.01 #26 +3.5 #71
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #144 0.88 #338 -1.7 #310
Three Pointers 41% #186 1.06 #246 -0.9 #224
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #152 +0.9 #150
Freethrows 0.23 #17 73% #207 0.17 #20
Second Chance 31.7% #235 1.21 #341 0.38 #324
Turnovers 17.8% #89
Total Defense +0.4 #155

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 4.9% #1 -0.4% #129
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 10.9% #33 -1.2% #162
Possession Length 18.5 #290 18.5 #328
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.12 #314 0.13 #47
Improvement -1.4 #254 +1.1 #112

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 34.7% 37.0% 31.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.0 11.9 12.2
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
Conference Champion 95.6% 98.4% 92.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
First Round34.7% 36.9% 31.7%
Second Round4.5% 5.2% 3.7%
Sweet Sixteen0.6% 0.7% 0.5%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Middle Tennessee (Away) - 56.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 13 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 22 - 12 - 2
Quad 311 - 413 - 6
Quad 411 - 124 - 7


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 162 College of Charleston W 90 - 75 79% +8  1 - 0 +12 +26 A+ B+ A+ -12 D F B
 Sun, Nov 9 102 Florida Atlantic W 88 - 68 63% +15  2 - 0 +22 +19 A+ D A- +3 A+ F B-
 Mon, Nov 24 199 Vermont W 79 - 73 78% +10  3 - 0 +3 +7 A+ F C -3 C+ F+ B-
 Tue, Nov 25 164 Towson L 69 - 72 72% +1  3 - 1 -3 +6 B D- A+ -10 D F C-
 Wed, Nov 26 126 Bradley L 64 - 74 64% -10  3 - 2 -8 -3 C+ F C+ -6 D F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. W 92 - 50 99% +34  4 - 2 +19 +11 A+ D+ C- +9 A A+ C
 Wed, Dec 10 24 @North Carolina St. L 45 - 85 11% -25  4 - 3 -21 -18 F+ F F+ -5 D+ A+ C-
 Sat, Dec 20 86 @Dayton W 64 - 61 34% -2  5 - 3 +13 +10 A- F A+ +4 A C- C+
 Sun, Dec 28 181 @Florida International W 97 - 94 OT 65% -0  6 - 3 1 - 0 +5 +16 A D- A+ -12 C F B
 Fri, Jan 2 156 Kennesaw St. W 81 - 73 79% +8  7 - 3 2 - 0 +5 +2 A- F C- +3 A+ D- C
 Sun, Jan 4 196 Jacksonville St. W 78 - 69 84% +4  8 - 3 3 - 0 +4 +11 C C- A -6 B+ F D-
 Thu, Jan 8 221 @Louisiana Tech W 72 - 56 72% +8  9 - 3 4 - 0 +15 +13 B D+ A+ +5 C A+ F+
 Sat, Jan 10 117 @Sam Houston St. W 82 - 74 49% +5  10 - 3 5 - 0 +14 +10 A+ F C+ +3 C B A
 Thu, Jan 15 141 New Mexico St. W 73 - 71 76% +6  11 - 3 6 - 0 +0 +12 A+ F A+ -12 D+ F+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 256 UTEP W 80 - 69 90% +7  12 - 3 7 - 0 +3 +15 A+ F A+ -10 F A+ A-
 Wed, Jan 21 166 @Western Kentucky W 76 - 69 62% +5  13 - 3 8 - 0 +9 +12 A+ D+ C+ -2 C- D- A+
 Sat, Jan 24 297 Delaware W 67 - 51 93% +7  14 - 3 9 - 0 +5 +1 A F A- +7 C A- A+
 Thu, Jan 29 144 @Middle Tennessee W 70 - 69 56%
 Wed, Feb 4 297 @Delaware W 73 - 63 83%
 Sat, Feb 7 177 Missouri St. W 74 - 64 82%
 Wed, Feb 11 141 @New Mexico St. W 73 - 72 55%
 Sat, Feb 14 256 @UTEP W 73 - 65 76%
 Thu, Feb 19 181 Florida International W 82 - 72 83%
 Sat, Feb 21 166 Western Kentucky W 79 - 70 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 156 @Kennesaw St. W 80 - 78 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 196 @Jacksonville St. W 71 - 66 67%
 Thu, Mar 5 221 Louisiana Tech W 72 - 60 86%
 Sat, Mar 7 117 Sam Houston St. W 78 - 72 69%
Totals 22 - 6 17 - 3 +6 +5 A- F+ A- +0 C D C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 3.2 10.2 18.6 23.3 22.2 13.3 4.3 95.6 1st
2nd 0.1 0.9 1.4 0.9 0.1 3.5 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.7 4.8 11.1 18.7 23.3 22.2 13.3 4.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 4.3    4.3
19-1 100.0% 13.3    13.3
18-2 100.0% 22.2    22.2
17-3 100.0% 23.3    23.2 0.1
16-4 99.4% 18.6    17.5 1.1 0.0
15-5 91.7% 10.2    7.7 2.4 0.1
14-6 67.0% 3.2    1.4 1.4 0.4 0.0
13-7 24.8% 0.4    0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 2.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 95.6% 95.6 89.7 5.2 0.6 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 4.3% 49.7% 49.4% 0.3% 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.5 0.4 2.2 0.7%
19-1 13.3% 43.8% 43.6% 0.1% 11.7 0.0 2.2 3.4 0.2 7.5 0.2%
18-2 22.2% 39.3% 39.3% 0.0% 11.9 1.6 6.2 1.0 0.0 13.5 0.0%
17-3 23.3% 34.3% 34.3% 12.1 0.8 5.5 1.7 0.0 15.3
16-4 18.7% 30.4% 30.4% 12.3 0.3 3.5 1.8 0.1 13.0
15-5 11.1% 27.0% 27.0% 12.5 0.0 1.5 1.4 0.1 8.1
14-6 4.8% 18.8% 18.8% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.1 3.9
13-7 1.7% 16.5% 16.5% 12.8 0.1 0.2 0.0 1.4
12-8 0.5% 22.4% 22.4% 13.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.4
11-9 0.0% 0.0 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 34.7% 34.6% 0.0% 12.0 65.3 0.1%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 2.1% 100.0% 11.0 0.7 3.5 8.2 71.3 16.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.7% 1.4% 11.0 1.4
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.7% 0.7% 11.0 0.7