Western Kentucky
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -0.5 #166
Expected Predictive Rating +0.1 #159
Pace 74.9 #41
Improvement -4.2 #335

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #199 D C B C C
Defense #139 C B+ C+ D B+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #133 0.92 #362 -3.8 #309
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #193 0.73 #213 -0.5 #200
Three Pointers 40% #206 1.01 #203 -0.8 #209
1st FG Attempt 0.92 #322 -5.1 #323
Freethrows 0.31 #157 72% #190 0.22 #157
Second Chance 34.1% #82 0.98 #265 0.33 #145
Turnovers 14.4% #63
Total Offense -1.2 #199

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #350 1.10 #100 +6.1 #25
2 Pt. Jumpers 24% #80 0.83 #294 -2.1 #327
Three Pointers 47% #45 1.10 #294 -4.8 #343
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #206 -0.9 #206
Freethrows 0.37 #338 69% #41 0.25 #313
Second Chance 27.6% #79 0.90 #27 0.25 #34
Turnovers 17.3% #114
Total Defense +0.7 #139

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.4% #165 -2.1% #38
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -10.3% #331 3.9% #255
Possession Length 16.5 #100 17.2 #161
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #150 0.12 #41
Improvement -3.5 #344 -0.7 #230

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.4% 7.2% 4.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.9 13.7 14.1
.500 or above 55.0% 72.8% 44.8%
.500 or above in Conference 51.3% 69.9% 40.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.4% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.3% 1.6%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.2%
First Round5.4% 7.2% 4.3%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Away) - 36.4% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 35 - 86 - 13
Quad 410 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 337 Tennessee Tech W 82 - 70 90% +9  1 - 0 -2 -4 F B- C+ +0 D D A+
 Mon, Nov 10 258 @Eastern Kentucky W 87 - 79 57% -0  2 - 0 +6 +4 D+ F+ A+ +1 F A+ C+
 Sun, Nov 16 226 Tennessee St. W 95 - 82 73% +9  3 - 0 +6 +10 C- B+ A+ -5 D- A+ B-
 Wed, Nov 26 12 Vanderbilt L 78 - 83 5% -6  3 - 1 +14 +3 B D+ D +11 B+ A+ A+
 Thu, Nov 27 69 South Florida L 91 - 97 OT 21% +5  3 - 2 +2 +0 C+ C+ D+ +3 B- A+ C+
 Fri, Nov 28 100 Wichita St. W 75 - 70 29% +1  4 - 2 +10 +12 B- C A -1 C+ A C-
 Sat, Dec 6 270 Evansville W 80 - 79 79% +3  5 - 2 -8 +3 C D D -11 F+ D+ C
 Wed, Dec 10 163 @Marshall L 61 - 77 37% -7  5 - 3 -13 -10 F+ F C -4 B B- F
 Fri, Dec 19 73 Tulsa L 81 - 82 31% +3  5 - 4 +4 +5 C- C+ A+ -1 C A+ D+
 Mon, Dec 29 196 @Jacksonville St. L 67 - 78 45% -12  5 - 5 0 - 1 -10 -4 F D+ C -7 F A+ A+
 Fri, Jan 2 117 Sam Houston St. W 102 - 91 48% -1  6 - 5 1 - 1 +11 +19 C- A+ C+ -9 C C+ C-
 Sun, Jan 4 221 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 72% +7  7 - 5 2 - 1 -2 -2 F C+ B +1 B C D-
 Thu, Jan 8 141 @New Mexico St. L 64 - 80 32% -16  7 - 6 2 - 2 -12 -4 F B+ A+ -8 C D- B
 Sat, Jan 10 256 @UTEP W 68 - 56 57% +0  8 - 6 3 - 2 +10 -3 F D B+ +13 A- A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 14 177 Missouri St. W 87 - 72 64% +6  9 - 6 4 - 2 +11 +17 B A+ A -6 B- D- C+
 Sat, Jan 17 156 Kennesaw St. L 65 - 81 59% -5  9 - 7 4 - 3 -19 -13 F F A -6 D+ A+ C-
 Wed, Jan 21 95 Liberty L 69 - 76 38% -5  9 - 8 4 - 4 -4 +1 C- C+ D -6 D+ C B+
 Sat, Jan 24 117 @Sam Houston St. L 58 - 73 27% -14  9 - 9 4 - 5 -9 -9 F B+ F -0 B F+ F+
 Wed, Jan 28 156 @Kennesaw St. L 81 - 85 36%
 Sat, Jan 31 144 @Middle Tennessee L 70 - 75 34%
 Thu, Feb 5 196 Jacksonville St. W 74 - 69 67%
 Sat, Feb 7 181 Florida International W 83 - 79 65%
 Sat, Feb 14 144 Middle Tennessee W 73 - 72 55%
 Wed, Feb 18 297 @Delaware W 72 - 68 65%
 Sat, Feb 21 95 @Liberty L 70 - 79 20%
 Thu, Feb 26 141 New Mexico St. W 76 - 75 54%
 Sat, Feb 28 256 UTEP W 76 - 68 76%
 Thu, Mar 5 177 @Missouri St. L 71 - 73 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 181 @Florida International L 80 - 82 43%
Totals 15 - 14 10 - 10 -1 -1 D C B +1 C B+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 1.4 2.1 0.7 0.1 4.5 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.5 4.8 1.7 0.2 9.1 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.2 2.8 0.2 10.6 4th
5th 0.4 6.3 5.6 0.5 0.0 12.9 5th
6th 0.1 3.5 8.6 1.5 0.0 13.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.5 8.3 3.7 0.1 13.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.6 6.5 0.5 13.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 2.7 6.2 1.4 0.0 10.5 9th
10th 0.1 1.5 4.0 2.2 0.0 7.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.7 1.7 1.2 0.1 3.6 11th
12th 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.4 8.4 15.7 20.2 20.5 16.1 9.6 4.0 0.9 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 40.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.1% 18.2% 18.2% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.9% 14.9% 14.9% 12.8 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
13-7 4.0% 14.9% 14.9% 13.1 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 3.4
12-8 9.6% 12.3% 12.3% 13.4 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.1 8.4
11-9 16.1% 8.7% 8.7% 13.6 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 14.7
10-10 20.5% 4.4% 4.4% 14.1 0.2 0.5 0.3 19.6
9-11 20.2% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.0 19.6
8-12 15.7% 2.3% 2.3% 15.4 0.2 0.2 15.3
7-13 8.4% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 8.2
6-14 3.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 3.4
5-15 0.9% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.0 0.9
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.4% 5.4% 0.0% 13.9 94.6 0.0%