Kennesaw St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +0.3 #156
Expected Predictive Rating -0.8 #179
Pace 78.9 #11
Improvement +0.8 #141

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #127 C C C B- B
Defense #215 C C+ D+ F D

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 42% #92 1.11 #238 +0.9 #144
2 Pt. Jumpers 14% #309 0.74 #202 -2.5 #303
Three Pointers 44% #128 0.99 #215 +1.0 #146
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #190 -0.6 #190
Freethrows 0.36 #36 70% #246 0.25 #78
Second Chance 34.4% #77 0.95 #302 0.33 #156
Turnovers 16.3% #173
Total Offense +1.5 #127

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 45% #27 1.02 #38 -0.7 #199
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #258 0.73 #125 +1.3 #94
Three Pointers 37% #287 1.14 #330 -0.3 #189
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #172 +0.3 #169
Freethrows 0.39 #355 74% #243 0.29 #355
Second Chance 30.6% #183 1.00 #113 0.31 #140
Turnovers 15.1% #266
Total Defense -1.3 #215

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 2.1% #51 1.6% #313
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -3.2% #232 -2.1% #144
Possession Length 15.1 #22 17.1 #132
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #138 0.20 #263
Improvement +1.2 #118 -0.4 #213

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.1% 8.3% 4.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.7 13.6 14.0
.500 or above 75.2% 83.8% 60.1%
.500 or above in Conference 64.6% 75.0% 46.4%
Conference Champion 0.4% 0.6% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.2% 1.2%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round7.0% 8.3% 4.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Western Kentucky (Home) - 63.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 35 - 66 - 10
Quad 411 - 316 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 315 @Florida A&M W 92 - 72 74% +9  1 - 0 +14 +6 A- F C- +5 A+ C F
 Sun, Nov 16 69 South Florida L 89 - 108 32% -9  1 - 1 -14 +7 C- A+ B- -19 D+ D+ F+
 Mon, Nov 24 238 Rice W 89 - 84 OT 67% -1  2 - 1 +1 +1 C- C- C -1 C B- C+
 Tue, Nov 25 332 Oral Roberts L 83 - 91 85% +1  2 - 2 -19 -3 D+ D F+ -15 F B+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 231 @Florida Gulf Coast W 102 - 100 OT 55% +0  3 - 2 +1 +6 B+ D F -6 C B D
 Tue, Dec 2 336 Jackson St. W 88 - 73 91% +9  4 - 2 +1 +5 F A- B+ -5 B+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 269 Georgia St. W 92 - 69 81% +16  5 - 2 +14 +2 A+ C F +8 A+ D D-
 Wed, Dec 17 144 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 35% -7  5 - 3 0 - 1 +3 -2 D- C+ D- +5 A A A-
 Sun, Dec 21 16 Alabama L 81 - 92 6% -18  5 - 4 +7 +5 C+ A+ F +4 A+ B D+
 Fri, Jan 2 95 @Liberty L 73 - 81 21% -8  5 - 5 0 - 2 +1 -1 F C+ C+ +2 C+ B B+
 Sun, Jan 4 297 @Delaware L 52 - 67 68% -5  5 - 6 0 - 3 -20 -17 F D F -4 D+ B D
 Wed, Jan 7 177 Missouri St. W 90 - 80 67% +8  6 - 6 1 - 3 +6 +10 A+ B- F -5 C+ C C
 Sat, Jan 10 196 Jacksonville St. W 88 - 82 70% +5  7 - 6 2 - 3 +1 +10 C A+ B- -10 F C C-
 Wed, Jan 14 181 Florida International W 89 - 86 68% -4  8 - 6 3 - 3 -1 +9 B D- A+ -11 B+ F D+
 Sat, Jan 17 166 @Western Kentucky W 81 - 65 41% +5  9 - 6 4 - 3 +18 +8 C+ D- B- +10 B A+ D-
 Wed, Jan 21 117 @Sam Houston St. L 87 - 93 29% -5  9 - 7 4 - 4 -0 +13 C B A+ -13 F C+ F
 Fri, Jan 23 221 @Louisiana Tech L 76 - 82 53% +2  9 - 8 4 - 5 -7 +11 C C+ B+ -18 F F C-
 Wed, Jan 28 166 Western Kentucky W 85 - 81 64%
 Sat, Jan 31 141 New Mexico St. W 81 - 79 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 196 @Jacksonville St. L 75 - 76 48%
 Thu, Feb 12 144 Middle Tennessee W 78 - 76 58%
 Sat, Feb 14 117 Sam Houston St. W 84 - 83 52%
 Wed, Feb 18 177 @Missouri St. L 76 - 77 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 221 Louisiana Tech W 75 - 68 74%
 Thu, Feb 26 95 Liberty L 78 - 80 42%
 Sat, Feb 28 297 Delaware W 80 - 69 84%
 Thu, Mar 5 256 @UTEP W 77 - 75 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 141 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 82 36%
Totals 15 - 13 10 - 10 +0 +2 C C C -1 C C+ D+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.4 1st
2nd 0.2 2.3 4.0 2.0 0.3 8.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 7.0 2.5 0.2 12.9 3rd
4th 0.0 1.6 8.3 4.0 0.4 14.3 4th
5th 0.5 6.5 6.9 0.6 0.0 14.5 5th
6th 0.1 3.1 8.5 1.7 0.0 13.5 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 7.4 3.4 0.1 12.3 7th
8th 0.4 3.9 5.3 0.5 10.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.3 1.0 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.2 1.2 0.0 4.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.7 0.1 1.9 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 12th
Total 0.0 0.3 1.7 5.2 10.8 17.4 20.7 20.2 13.9 7.1 2.4 0.4 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 27.3% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.5% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.5% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.4% 0.4 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5 0.4% 24.7% 24.7% 12.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
14-6 2.4% 19.0% 19.0% 12.8 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.9
13-7 7.1% 15.1% 15.1% 13.2 0.1 0.6 0.4 0.0 6.0
12-8 13.9% 13.3% 13.3% 13.5 0.1 0.8 0.8 0.1 12.0
11-9 20.2% 8.3% 8.3% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.2 18.5
10-10 20.7% 5.0% 5.0% 14.1 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.3 19.7
9-11 17.4% 3.0% 3.0% 14.8 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.0 16.9
8-12 10.8% 2.3% 2.3% 15.1 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.6
7-13 5.2% 1.7% 1.7% 15.9 0.0 0.1 5.1
6-14 1.7% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 1.7
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.1% 7.1% 0.0% 13.7 92.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%