UTEP
Conference USA
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.2 #256
Expected Predictive Rating -7.0 #275
Pace 63.7 #313
Improvement +1.1 #131

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #279 D+ D+ C D F+
Defense #222 C- C- C+ D- C+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 31% #345 1.22 #108 -3.7 #307
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #31 0.64 #334 +1.7 #86
Three Pointers 40% #211 1.01 #199 -0.9 #212
1st FG Attempt 0.96 #260 -2.8 #259
Freethrows 0.26 #308 68% #320 0.17 #325
Second Chance 26.2% #301 1.04 #189 0.27 #271
Turnovers 16.7% #193
Total Offense -3.9 #279

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #227 1.18 #211 +0.4 #157
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #90 0.86 #320 -2.2 #332
Three Pointers 40% #222 1.05 #239 +0.1 #175
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #239 -1.8 #237
Freethrows 0.37 #342 72% #197 0.27 #335
Second Chance 32.5% #266 1.08 #238 0.35 #263
Turnovers 17.7% #92
Total Defense -1.4 #222

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.5% #347 -0.9% #96
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -2.2% #208 4.5% #264
Possession Length 18.6 #303 17.5 #213
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.17 #171 0.15 #129
Improvement +0.8 #139 +0.3 #174

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.6% 0.7% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 6.4% 9.9% 2.1%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 14.2% 8.8% 20.7%
First Four0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round0.4% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Louisiana Tech (Home) - 54.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 33 - 114 - 16
Quad 45 - 58 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 155 Loyola Marymount L 58 - 71 40% -3  0 - 1 -16 -7 D+ F A- -10 F F A+
 Sat, Nov 15 40 @Utah St. L 51 - 75 4% -12  0 - 2 -8 -14 F D D +5 B B- A+
 Mon, Nov 24 132 William & Mary L 63 - 74 25% -8  0 - 3 -9 -12 F C+ C- +3 C B- A+
 Tue, Nov 25 118 UAB L 59 - 75 22% -7  0 - 4 -13 -6 C F+ D- -9 B- F+ C-
 Sun, Dec 7 123 @Seattle L 68 - 75 16% -1  0 - 5 -1 +7 B- C+ C+ -9 D F B-
 Sat, Dec 13 99 @Hawaii L 61 - 66 11% +2  0 - 6 +3 +2 D+ A+ B +1 B A- F
 Sun, Dec 21 295 Norfolk St. L 71 - 72 70% -3  0 - 7 -12 -5 C C F -7 F+ B+ B+
 Mon, Dec 22 134 North Dakota St. W 76 - 66 36% +3  1 - 7 +9 +4 C C C +5 C- A+ A+
 Mon, Dec 29 221 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 75 32% -11  1 - 8 0 - 1 -13 -2 F+ B+ F -12 F A+ D
 Fri, Jan 2 177 @Missouri St. L 55 - 79 25% -16  1 - 9 0 - 2 -22 -5 D- D+ D -22 D- F C
 Sun, Jan 4 181 @Florida International L 64 - 76 26% -2  1 - 10 0 - 3 -10 -5 D F B -6 C- F B
 Thu, Jan 8 144 Middle Tennessee W 83 - 80 OT 37% -5  2 - 10 1 - 3 +1 +9 C- A+ B+ -8 B- C B-
 Sat, Jan 10 166 Western Kentucky L 56 - 68 43% -0  2 - 11 1 - 4 -16 -16 F F F +0 C+ B C
 Thu, Jan 15 297 @Delaware W 70 - 69 48% -2  3 - 11 2 - 4 -4 +6 C C A+ -9 A- F F
 Sat, Jan 17 95 @Liberty L 69 - 80 10% -7  3 - 12 2 - 5 -2 +7 A+ F D- -11 F+ C+ D-
 Thu, Jan 22 181 Florida International W 83 - 77 47% +5  4 - 12 3 - 5 +2 +6 B+ C D -5 F+ A- B-
 Sat, Jan 24 177 Missouri St. L 57 - 62 46% +2  4 - 13 3 - 6 -9 -13 D F B- +3 B D+ A+
 Wed, Jan 28 221 Louisiana Tech W 63 - 62 55%
 Sat, Jan 31 297 Delaware W 68 - 63 69%
 Wed, Feb 4 117 @Sam Houston St. L 67 - 78 15%
 Sat, Feb 7 141 New Mexico St. L 68 - 71 37%
 Wed, Feb 11 196 @Jacksonville St. L 63 - 69 30%
 Sat, Feb 14 95 Liberty L 65 - 73 24%
 Sat, Feb 21 141 @New Mexico St. L 65 - 74 20%
 Thu, Feb 26 144 @Middle Tennessee L 63 - 72 19%
 Sat, Feb 28 166 @Western Kentucky L 68 - 76 24%
 Thu, Mar 5 156 Kennesaw St. L 75 - 77 41%
 Sat, Mar 7 196 Jacksonville St. W 67 - 66 50%
Totals 8 - 20 7 - 13 -5 -4 D+ D+ C -1 C- C- C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.6 0.4 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 1.9 0.1 3.7 6th
7th 0.0 1.2 3.9 0.6 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 5.1 3.3 0.1 0.0 9.2 8th
9th 0.0 0.6 5.0 7.2 0.7 13.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.0 6.7 10.7 3.3 0.0 21.7 10th
11th 0.3 3.6 11.4 14.1 5.7 0.4 35.5 11th
12th 1.0 2.6 2.4 0.8 0.0 6.8 12th
Total 1.3 6.2 14.8 22.2 22.2 17.3 9.7 4.5 1.4 0.4 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.4% 12.3% 12.3% 15.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.4% 4.5% 4.5% 15.5 0.0 0.0 1.4
10-10 4.5% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.1 4.4
9-11 9.7% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 9.6
8-12 17.3% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 17.2
7-13 22.2% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 22.1
6-14 22.2% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 22.1
5-15 14.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 14.8
4-16 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
3-17 1.3% 1.3
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 15.9 99.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 1.0%