Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.4#126
Expected Predictive Rating+6.4#92
Pace73.3#76
Improvement+0.6#137

Offense
Total Offense+2.4#112
First Shot+0.3#165
After Offensive Rebound+2.2#58
Layup/Dunks-4.0#310
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#88
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.2#83
Freethrows-0.8#228
Improvement-0.8#248

Defense
Total Defense+0.0#167
First Shot-0.6#199
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#150
Layups/Dunks+0.2#163
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.7#138
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#82
Freethrows-4.2#356
Improvement+1.4#76
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 16.4% 19.2% 14.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.7 13.1
.500 or above 85.0% 92.2% 78.5%
.500 or above in Conference 84.6% 88.8% 80.9%
Conference Champion 22.6% 27.1% 18.6%
Last Place in Conference 1.1% 0.5% 1.5%
First Four0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Round16.4% 19.1% 13.9%
Second Round1.9% 2.4% 1.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.4% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oregon St. (Away) - 47.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 38 - 59 - 10
Quad 49 - 218 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 24 @Texas Tech L 77-98 8%     0 - 1 -3.1 +10.9 -13.9
  Sat, Nov 15 120 @Utah L 79-85 36%     0 - 2 +0.1 +3.3 -2.9
  Wed, Nov 19 97 Wyoming W 78-70 51%     1 - 2 +10.1 +4.8 +5.2
  Wed, Nov 26 162 Idaho St. W 84-81 60%     2 - 2 +2.9 +8.5 -5.8
  Fri, Nov 28 173 Idaho W 94-68 63%     3 - 2 +25.0 +27.6 +0.0
  Tue, Dec 2 53 @Oklahoma St. L 83-93 15%     3 - 3 +3.3 +6.1 -1.7
  Sat, Dec 6 306 @Texas Southern W 82-70 77%     4 - 3 +6.8 -1.7 +7.1
  Wed, Dec 17 157 @Oregon St. L 73-74 47%    
  Sun, Dec 21 132 @New Mexico St. L 72-74 41%    
  Fri, Jan 2 145 @Western Kentucky L 81-82 45%    
  Sun, Jan 4 154 @Middle Tennessee L 77-78 47%    
  Thu, Jan 8 282 Delaware W 80-68 86%    
  Sat, Jan 10 108 Liberty W 76-74 56%    
  Wed, Jan 14 252 @Jacksonville St. W 74-69 66%    
  Sat, Jan 17 186 @Florida International W 80-79 54%    
  Wed, Jan 21 160 Kennesaw St. W 87-82 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 145 Western Kentucky W 84-79 67%    
  Wed, Jan 28 250 @Missouri St. W 75-70 66%    
  Sat, Jan 31 179 Louisiana Tech W 73-66 73%    
  Wed, Feb 4 218 UTEP W 76-67 79%    
  Sat, Feb 7 179 @Louisiana Tech W 70-69 53%    
  Sat, Feb 14 160 @Kennesaw St. L 84-85 48%    
  Wed, Feb 18 154 Middle Tennessee W 80-75 68%    
  Sat, Feb 21 252 Jacksonville St. W 77-66 82%    
  Thu, Feb 26 186 Florida International W 83-76 74%    
  Sat, Feb 28 250 Missouri St. W 78-67 82%    
  Thu, Mar 5 282 @Delaware W 77-71 70%    
  Sat, Mar 7 108 @Liberty L 73-77 35%    
Projected Record 17 - 11 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.6 2.5 5.2 6.0 4.7 2.4 1.0 0.2 22.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.8 3.6 6.2 4.6 1.9 0.4 0.0 0.0 17.6 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.8 5.9 3.2 0.8 0.1 0.0 14.5 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 3.1 5.1 2.7 0.4 0.0 11.7 4th
5th 0.2 2.1 4.3 2.3 0.3 0.0 9.1 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.7 2.3 0.4 0.0 7.5 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.7 2.2 0.4 0.0 6.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 1.8 1.8 0.3 0.0 4.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.4 0.0 2.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.4 0.0 2.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.5 2.5 4.2 6.3 8.6 10.9 12.4 13.1 12.3 10.7 7.9 5.1 2.5 1.0 0.2 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.2    0.2
19-1 99.7% 1.0    1.0 0.0
18-2 98.8% 2.4    2.3 0.1
17-3 91.9% 4.7    4.1 0.6 0.0
16-4 75.1% 6.0    4.1 1.7 0.1 0.0
15-5 49.0% 5.2    2.5 2.2 0.5 0.0
14-6 20.5% 2.5    0.7 1.0 0.6 0.1 0.0
13-7 4.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 22.6% 22.6 15.0 5.9 1.5 0.3 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.2% 57.1% 46.4% 10.7% 9.5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 20.0%
19-1 1.0% 48.3% 47.3% 1.0% 11.4 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.9%
18-2 2.5% 40.4% 40.4% 11.9 0.2 0.6 0.1 1.5
17-3 5.1% 36.5% 36.5% 12.2 0.2 1.1 0.5 0.0 3.2
16-4 7.9% 31.2% 31.2% 12.5 0.1 1.2 1.0 0.1 0.0 5.5
15-5 10.7% 24.6% 24.6% 12.8 0.0 0.9 1.3 0.3 0.0 8.1
14-6 12.3% 20.9% 20.9% 13.0 0.0 0.5 1.4 0.6 0.0 9.7
13-7 13.1% 16.9% 16.9% 13.3 0.3 1.1 0.8 0.1 10.9
12-8 12.4% 11.6% 11.6% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 11.0
11-9 10.9% 7.7% 7.7% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 10.0
10-10 8.6% 5.4% 5.4% 14.2 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 8.1
9-11 6.3% 3.4% 3.4% 15.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 6.1
8-12 4.2% 1.9% 1.9% 15.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 4.1
7-13 2.5% 1.9% 1.9% 16.0 0.0 2.4
6-14 1.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 1.4
5-15 0.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
4-16 0.3% 0.3
3-17 0.1% 0.1
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 16.4% 16.4% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9 5.0 6.3 3.2 0.8 0.2 83.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 8.9 9.1 13.6 4.5 4.5 22.7 9.1 31.8 4.5