Sam Houston St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +3.0 #117
Expected Predictive Rating +3.6 #108
Pace 73.2 #68
Improvement +0.3 #169

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #121 C+ B- C D C
Defense #125 C+ C+ C+ C C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 40% #143 1.16 #168 +0.9 #146
2 Pt. Jumpers 20% #177 0.73 #215 -0.3 #187
Three Pointers 40% #209 1.11 #60 +1.2 #139
1st FG Attempt 1.05 #127 +1.8 #127
Freethrows 0.25 #317 70% #248 0.18 #319
Second Chance 36.6% #32 1.01 #227 0.37 #78
Turnovers 16.9% #215
Total Offense +1.7 #121

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 36% #266 1.24 #284 +0.3 #160
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #255 0.72 #123 +1.3 #95
Three Pointers 47% #46 0.91 #57 -0.3 #190
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #141 +1.3 #141
Freethrows 0.32 #250 70% #73 0.23 #208
Second Chance 30.3% #164 1.01 #128 0.31 #142
Turnovers 17.5% #107
Total Defense +1.3 #125

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #178 0.2% #183
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 3.2% #126 -2.6% #133
Possession Length 16.0 #53 17.2 #149
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.24 #40 0.17 #172
Improvement -1.6 #266 +1.9 #73

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 18.3% 20.4% 15.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 96.9% 99.0% 94.3%
.500 or above in Conference 94.5% 98.2% 90.2%
Conference Champion 4.1% 6.1% 1.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round18.3% 20.4% 15.7%
Second Round1.4% 1.7% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.2% 0.2% 0.2%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Missouri St. (Away) - 54.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 31 - 5
Quad 38 - 59 - 10
Quad 410 - 119 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 7 15 @Texas Tech L 77 - 98 5% -8  0 - 1 +0 +12 C A+ D- -12 C+ F C+
 Sat, Nov 15 104 @Utah L 79 - 85 32% -9  0 - 2 +2 +3 D+ D B- -1 C B A+
 Wed, Nov 19 110 Wyoming W 78 - 70 59% +3  1 - 2 +9 +4 D+ A+ F+ +5 C A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 225 Idaho St. W 84 - 81 74% +1  2 - 2 -1 +5 C A+ D- -6 D- A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 189 Idaho W 94 - 68 68% +4  3 - 2 +24 +29 A+ A+ A+ -2 C- C+ D+
 Tue, Dec 2 63 @Oklahoma St. L 83 - 93 20% -0  3 - 3 +2 +5 B+ F C -2 C+ F A+
 Sat, Dec 6 308 @Texas Southern W 82 - 70 79% +6  4 - 3 +6 -4 F D- D- +9 A+ C B-
 Wed, Dec 17 194 @Oregon St. W 85 - 75 58% +8  5 - 3 +11 +7 C+ B D- +3 C A- D
 Sun, Dec 21 141 @New Mexico St. L 78 - 87 45% -13  5 - 4 0 - 1 -5 +1 D C- C- -5 F B F+
 Fri, Jan 2 166 @Western Kentucky L 91 - 102 52% +1  5 - 5 0 - 2 -9 +12 C+ B+ B- -19 C- F B
 Sun, Jan 4 144 @Middle Tennessee L 67 - 68 46% -5  5 - 6 0 - 3 +3 -1 B C+ F +4 C- A+ C-
 Thu, Jan 8 297 Delaware W 72 - 60 89% +7  6 - 6 1 - 3 +1 +3 D+ C A -1 B B- F+
 Sat, Jan 10 95 Liberty L 74 - 82 51% -5  6 - 7 1 - 4 -5 -1 C+ D F -4 D B- A-
 Wed, Jan 14 196 @Jacksonville St. W 77 - 62 59% +7  7 - 7 2 - 4 +16 +15 A+ B+ F+ +3 B+ C+ D
 Sat, Jan 17 181 @Florida International W 76 - 63 55% +7  8 - 7 3 - 4 +15 -1 C+ D- D +15 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Jan 21 156 Kennesaw St. W 93 - 87 71% +5  9 - 7 4 - 4 +3 +13 A+ C+ B+ -10 C D+ F
 Sat, Jan 24 166 Western Kentucky W 73 - 58 73% +14  10 - 7 5 - 4 +11 +3 D+ A+ A +10 B+ D- A+
 Wed, Jan 28 177 @Missouri St. W 73 - 72 54%
 Sat, Jan 31 221 Louisiana Tech W 73 - 64 81%
 Wed, Feb 4 256 UTEP W 78 - 67 85%
 Sat, Feb 7 221 @Louisiana Tech W 70 - 67 63%
 Sat, Feb 14 156 @Kennesaw St. L 83 - 84 48%
 Wed, Feb 18 144 Middle Tennessee W 76 - 71 67%
 Sat, Feb 21 196 Jacksonville St. W 76 - 68 78%
 Thu, Feb 26 181 Florida International W 85 - 78 75%
 Sat, Feb 28 177 Missouri St. W 76 - 69 74%
 Thu, Mar 5 297 @Delaware W 75 - 67 76%
 Sat, Mar 7 95 @Liberty L 72 - 78 31%
Totals 17 - 11 12 - 8 +3 +2 C+ B- C +1 C+ C+ C+




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.2 1.8 1.0 4.1 1st
2nd 0.3 4.7 14.1 14.2 5.6 0.7 39.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.0 10.6 7.4 1.5 0.1 22.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 7.1 5.3 0.7 0.0 14.0 4th
5th 0.1 3.3 4.6 0.7 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.7 3.5 0.7 0.0 5.0 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 1.1 0.0 2.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 1.1 0.1 1.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.6 0.2 0.9 9th
10th 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.3 3.8 9.0 15.8 21.3 22.4 16.9 7.4 1.7 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 56.8% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 23.8% 1.8    0.6 1.0 0.1
14-6 7.0% 1.2    0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.1% 4.1 1.5 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.7% 33.7% 33.7% 11.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0 1.1
15-5 7.4% 29.8% 29.8% 12.3 0.1 1.4 0.7 0.0 5.2
14-6 16.9% 26.4% 26.4% 12.6 0.0 1.9 2.2 0.3 0.0 12.4
13-7 22.4% 20.3% 20.3% 12.9 0.0 1.2 2.6 0.7 0.0 17.9
12-8 21.3% 17.5% 17.5% 13.2 0.6 2.1 1.1 0.1 17.6
11-9 15.8% 11.4% 11.4% 13.4 0.2 0.9 0.6 0.1 14.0
10-10 9.0% 8.0% 8.0% 13.7 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 8.3
9-11 3.8% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.1 0.1 3.6
8-12 1.3% 2.2% 2.2% 15.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.3% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 18.3% 18.3% 0.0% 12.9 81.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.6% 100.0% 11.6 0.9 0.9 38.6 56.1 3.5
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%