Louisiana Tech
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -3.5 #221
Expected Predictive Rating -2.8 #215
Pace 60.2 #361
Improvement +1.6 #109

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #300 D- D+ C D C
Defense #126 B- D+ C C D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 44% #54 1.01 #337 -0.4 #191
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #130 0.75 #195 +1.1 #114
Three Pointers 34% #324 0.82 #358 -7.0 #351
1st FG Attempt 0.89 #347 -6.2 #344
Freethrows 0.28 #257 64% #360 0.18 #315
Second Chance 32.6% #122 0.85 #358 0.28 #262
Turnovers 16.8% #205
Total Offense -4.8 #300

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 35% #287 1.02 #33 +4.6 #46
2 Pt. Jumpers 15% #339 0.78 #228 +2.3 #32
Three Pointers 50% #11 0.96 #95 -3.2 #309
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #72 +3.6 #67
Freethrows 0.31 #210 72% #148 0.22 #199
Second Chance 34.0% #309 1.08 #234 0.37 #293
Turnovers 16.8% #158
Total Defense +1.2 #126

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.2% #183 1.0% #259
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -13.2% #353 -7.5% #52
Possession Length 18.7 #314 18.2 #305
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #265 0.12 #45
Improvement +3.0 #42 -1.4 #269

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.8% 2.3% 1.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.7 15.0
.500 or above 26.6% 39.1% 16.3%
.500 or above in Conference 32.2% 46.7% 20.3%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 3.6% 0.9% 5.7%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round1.7% 2.3% 1.3%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UTEP (Away) - 45.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 104 - 13
Quad 410 - 313 - 16


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 74 @Nevada L 50 - 77 10% -16  0 - 1 -16 -12 F D F+ -7 B- F B
 Sat, Nov 15 336 Jackson St. W 68 - 51 84% +3  1 - 1 +3 -10 F D D- +13 A+ D+ B-
 Wed, Nov 19 195 @Indiana St. L 51 - 60 34% -5  1 - 2 -8 -22 F D- D+ +14 A+ B+ D+
 Wed, Nov 26 195 Indiana St. W 75 - 73 57% +1  2 - 2 -3 +3 B- A F -6 D+ B D-
 Sat, Nov 29 350 Alcorn St. W 83 - 58 87% +10  3 - 2 +10 +12 C- A A -0 B- B- C
 Wed, Dec 3 246 @Georgia Southern L 69 - 77 43% -4  3 - 3 -10 -3 B- F B- -7 F+ D- B-
 Sat, Dec 13 314 Louisiana W 65 - 44 80% +11  4 - 3 +9 -1 D- B+ F +13 B+ A A+
 Wed, Dec 17 174 @Tulane L 53 - 61 30% -6  4 - 4 -6 -9 F F F +1 A+ F D
 Mon, Dec 29 256 UTEP W 75 - 63 68% +11  5 - 4 1 - 0 +4 +6 B F A- -1 A F A+
 Fri, Jan 2 144 @Middle Tennessee L 51 - 88 23% -19  5 - 5 1 - 1 -33 -8 D+ D- F -32 F B D-
 Sun, Jan 4 166 @Western Kentucky L 61 - 66 28% -7  5 - 6 1 - 2 -3 -5 F B- A- +2 A+ D C
 Thu, Jan 8 95 Liberty L 56 - 72 28% -8  5 - 7 1 - 3 -13 -10 D F A+ -6 A- F D+
 Sat, Jan 10 297 Delaware W 70 - 68 OT 75% -5  6 - 7 2 - 3 -9 -3 F+ C D+ -6 C F C-
 Wed, Jan 14 144 Middle Tennessee W 59 - 58 44% -10  7 - 7 3 - 3 -1 -9 F F+ A +8 A+ F A-
 Sat, Jan 17 196 @Jacksonville St. L 60 - 64 34% -10  7 - 8 3 - 4 -3 +0 D- B C- -4 C D+ B-
 Fri, Jan 23 156 Kennesaw St. W 82 - 76 47% -2  8 - 8 4 - 4 +3 +12 A A- C- -8 B- D D
 Wed, Jan 28 256 @UTEP L 62 - 63 45%
 Sat, Jan 31 117 @Sam Houston St. L 64 - 73 19%
 Wed, Feb 4 141 New Mexico St. L 65 - 67 43%
 Sat, Feb 7 117 Sam Houston St. L 67 - 70 37%
 Thu, Feb 12 177 @Missouri St. L 61 - 66 31%
 Sat, Feb 14 181 @Florida International L 68 - 73 32%
 Wed, Feb 18 196 Jacksonville St. W 64 - 62 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 156 @Kennesaw St. L 68 - 75 26%
 Thu, Feb 26 177 Missouri St. W 64 - 63 53%
 Sat, Feb 28 181 Florida International W 71 - 70 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 95 @Liberty L 60 - 72 14%
 Sat, Mar 7 297 @Delaware W 62 - 61 54%
Totals 13 - 15 9 - 11 -4 -5 D- D+ C +1 B- D+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.7 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 2.3 0.6 0.1 0.0 4.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.0 4.0 1.4 0.1 6.6 4th
5th 0.0 0.4 4.6 3.2 0.2 8.4 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 6.1 0.8 0.0 10.0 6th
7th 0.0 1.6 7.9 2.9 0.1 12.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.8 6.5 6.5 0.4 14.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 4.6 8.4 1.5 0.0 15.0 9th
10th 0.4 3.7 7.8 3.1 0.1 15.1 10th
11th 0.4 2.4 4.4 2.3 0.2 9.7 11th
12th 0.3 0.6 0.3 0.0 1.2 12th
Total 0.7 3.4 8.9 15.5 19.9 19.4 15.2 9.8 4.9 1.9 0.5 0.1 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 50.0% 0.0    0.0
15-5 23.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 8.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
13-7 2.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.5% 14.0% 14.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
13-7 1.9% 6.4% 6.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.8
12-8 4.9% 6.0% 6.0% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 4.6
11-9 9.8% 4.0% 4.0% 14.6 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 9.4
10-10 15.2% 2.3% 2.3% 14.9 0.1 0.2 0.0 14.8
9-11 19.4% 1.2% 1.2% 15.2 0.2 0.1 19.2
8-12 19.9% 0.9% 0.9% 15.9 0.0 0.2 19.7
7-13 15.5% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.1 15.4
6-14 8.9% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 8.8
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16 0.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 14.8 98.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.5%