New Mexico St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.2 #141
Expected Predictive Rating -2.1 #206
Pace 65.5 #276
Improvement -3.2 #313

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #115 C C B C D-
Defense #208 C+ C- C- F B-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #322 1.19 #134 -2.8 #282
2 Pt. Jumpers 28% #42 0.77 #145 +3.2 #45
Three Pointers 39% #223 1.04 #159 -0.7 #202
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #184 -0.3 #185
Freethrows 0.29 #214 73% #174 0.21 #194
Second Chance 32.9% #114 0.99 #253 0.33 #159
Turnovers 14.1% #47
Total Offense +2.2 #115

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #311 1.16 #180 +2.7 #92
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #92 0.66 #36 +0.2 #175
Three Pointers 43% #120 1.01 #169 -0.8 #218
1st FG Attempt 0.98 #120 +2.0 #118
Freethrows 0.38 #347 78% #356 0.29 #359
Second Chance 29.5% #134 1.19 #333 0.35 #260
Turnovers 15.2% #254
Total Defense -1.0 #208

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -2.8% #330 -1.4% #71
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 2.2% #141 -2.6% #135
Possession Length 18.0 #243 17.6 #228
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.19 #110 0.19 #259
Improvement +0.5 #151 -3.7 #345

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.8% 8.2% 5.7%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.8 13.7 14.6
.500 or above 56.1% 59.7% 31.2%
.500 or above in Conference 50.9% 54.6% 25.7%
Conference Champion 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 1.3% 0.5% 6.7%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.9%
First Round7.8% 8.1% 5.4%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Delaware (Home) - 87.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 36 - 87 - 11
Quad 48 - 415 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 15 43 New Mexico W 76 - 68 23% +2  1 - 0 +17 +14 C A A+ +3 A D+ A+
 Fri, Nov 21 239 Samford W 81 - 72 79% +10  2 - 0 +2 +12 B+ A- B+ -10 B F F
 Tue, Nov 25 119 UC Irvine W 57 - 45 44% +5  3 - 0 +15 -10 F B F +24 A+ A+ A+
 Wed, Nov 26 269 Georgia St. W 77 - 58 75% +9  4 - 0 +13 -0 C D A- +12 B+ A- C
 Tue, Dec 2 190 South Alabama L 75 - 77 62% +1  4 - 1 -4 +7 C D+ D- -11 B- D D
 Sat, Dec 6 252 @Abilene Christian L 69 - 77 63% -5  4 - 2 -10 +4 D+ D+ C+ -15 F F+ C+
 Sat, Dec 13 73 Tulsa L 70 - 83 27% -13  4 - 3 -5 -3 F D C+ -2 D+ F+ A+
 Sun, Dec 21 117 Sam Houston St. W 87 - 78 55% +13  5 - 3 1 - 0 +9 +9 A+ C- A+ -1 A B C-
 Fri, Jan 2 181 @Florida International L 74 - 89 49% -11  5 - 4 1 - 1 -13 +1 A- F C- -14 D F B
 Sun, Jan 4 177 @Missouri St. L 82 - 89 48% -8  5 - 5 1 - 2 -5 +9 C+ C C -14 D F C+
 Thu, Jan 8 166 Western Kentucky W 80 - 64 68% +16  6 - 5 2 - 2 +12 +11 C- A+ C+ +2 A+ F+ F
 Sat, Jan 10 144 Middle Tennessee L 55 - 59 62% -0  6 - 6 2 - 3 -6 -13 D F D+ +7 A+ B+ D+
 Thu, Jan 15 95 @Liberty L 71 - 73 24% -6  6 - 7 2 - 4 +7 +14 B- B- A+ -8 D+ B- D
 Sat, Jan 17 297 @Delaware W 97 - 68 72% +14  7 - 7 3 - 4 +24 +36 A+ A+ A+ -8 C+ F F
 Thu, Jan 22 177 Missouri St. L 75 - 84 70% -5  7 - 8 3 - 5 -13 +6 F B- A+ -20 F B+ C
 Sat, Jan 24 181 Florida International L 78 - 81 71% -4  7 - 9 3 - 6 -7 -3 F+ D- C+ -4 C A+ F
 Wed, Jan 28 297 Delaware W 75 - 63 87%
 Sat, Jan 31 156 @Kennesaw St. L 79 - 81 43%
 Wed, Feb 4 221 @Louisiana Tech W 67 - 65 57%
 Sat, Feb 7 256 @UTEP W 71 - 68 63%
 Wed, Feb 11 95 Liberty L 72 - 73 45%
 Sat, Feb 14 196 @Jacksonville St. W 70 - 69 52%
 Sat, Feb 21 256 UTEP W 74 - 65 80%
 Thu, Feb 26 166 @Western Kentucky L 75 - 76 46%
 Sat, Feb 28 144 @Middle Tennessee L 69 - 72 40%
 Thu, Mar 5 196 Jacksonville St. W 73 - 67 73%
 Sat, Mar 7 156 Kennesaw St. W 82 - 78 64%
Totals 13 - 14 9 - 11 +1 +2 C C B -1 C+ C- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.1 1st
2nd 0.1 1.3 1.6 0.5 3.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.3 4.4 1.4 0.1 8.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 6.7 3.2 0.2 11.5 4th
5th 0.5 6.5 5.7 0.7 0.0 13.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.3 8.9 1.5 0.0 13.8 6th
7th 0.0 1.3 8.4 3.8 0.1 13.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.5 5.2 6.9 0.5 13.1 8th
9th 0.3 2.7 6.6 1.4 0.0 11.0 9th
10th 0.1 1.3 3.9 2.0 0.1 7.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.0 1.3 0.1 4.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.7 8.5 15.2 20.4 21.1 16.4 9.5 3.3 0.6 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 8.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6 0.6% 24.2% 24.2% 11.9 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.5
13-7 3.3% 20.9% 20.9% 12.6 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 2.6
12-8 9.5% 17.1% 17.1% 13.0 0.3 0.9 0.4 0.0 7.9
11-9 16.4% 11.1% 11.1% 13.4 0.1 0.9 0.7 0.1 14.6
10-10 21.1% 7.3% 7.3% 13.8 0.0 0.4 0.9 0.2 19.6
9-11 20.4% 5.0% 5.0% 14.7 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.0 19.4
8-12 15.2% 3.9% 3.9% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 14.6
7-13 8.5% 3.2% 3.2% 16.0 0.0 0.3 8.2
6-14 3.7% 3.4% 3.4% 16.0 0.1 3.6
5-15 1.0% 2.9% 2.9% 16.0 0.0 1.0
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.8% 7.8% 0.0% 13.8 92.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 11.9 16.7 76.7 6.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.2%