Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#154
Expected Predictive Rating+3.6#118
Pace69.9#173
Improvement-0.1#195

Offense
Total Offense+0.3#160
First Shot-0.7#193
After Offensive Rebound+1.1#118
Layup/Dunks-0.7#208
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.0#41
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.2#225
Freethrows-1.9#293
Improvement-0.7#234

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#171
First Shot+1.5#120
After Offensive Rebounds-1.6#294
Layups/Dunks-1.4#236
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.4#231
3 Pt Jumpshots+4.7#32
Freethrows-1.4#267
Improvement+0.6#139
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 9.1% 11.0% 6.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.4 13.3 13.8
.500 or above 55.3% 65.1% 39.4%
.500 or above in Conference 68.9% 78.0% 54.0%
Conference Champion 11.3% 15.2% 4.9%
Last Place in Conference 3.2% 1.5% 5.9%
First Four0.3% 0.2% 0.3%
First Round9.0% 10.9% 6.0%
Second Round0.7% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Kennesaw St. (Home) - 61.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 36 - 67 - 12
Quad 48 - 315 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 12 276 @Evansville W 77-72 62%     1 - 0 +2.0 +3.2 -1.3
  Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61-86 1%     1 - 1 +4.9 -2.7 +10.3
  Sun, Nov 23 100 Murray St. W 90-87 32%     2 - 1 +7.9 +10.4 -2.7
  Mon, Nov 24 81 George Washington L 79-92 25%     2 - 2 -5.7 +5.0 -10.4
  Tue, Nov 25 71 McNeese St. L 62-72 23%     2 - 3 -2.1 +8.7 -13.2
  Mon, Dec 1 110 UAB W 76-61 48%     3 - 3 +15.8 +8.2 +8.5
  Sun, Dec 7 85 Belmont L 62-83 37%     3 - 4 -17.4 -10.3 -6.9
  Wed, Dec 17 160 Kennesaw St. W 83-80 62%    
  Mon, Dec 29 8 @Houston L 57-80 2%    
  Fri, Jan 2 179 Louisiana Tech W 70-65 66%    
  Sun, Jan 4 126 Sam Houston St. W 78-77 53%    
  Thu, Jan 8 218 @UTEP W 69-68 52%    
  Sat, Jan 10 132 @New Mexico St. L 68-73 34%    
  Wed, Jan 14 179 @Louisiana Tech L 67-68 45%    
  Sat, Jan 17 250 Missouri St. W 74-66 77%    
  Sat, Jan 24 252 @Jacksonville St. W 70-68 59%    
  Wed, Jan 28 108 Liberty L 72-73 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 145 Western Kentucky W 79-77 58%    
  Wed, Feb 4 186 Florida International W 79-74 67%    
  Sat, Feb 7 282 @Delaware W 73-69 63%    
  Thu, Feb 12 160 @Kennesaw St. L 80-83 39%    
  Sat, Feb 14 145 @Western Kentucky L 76-80 38%    
  Wed, Feb 18 126 @Sam Houston St. L 75-80 32%    
  Sat, Feb 21 282 Delaware W 76-66 80%    
  Thu, Feb 26 218 UTEP W 72-65 72%    
  Sat, Feb 28 132 New Mexico St. W 71-70 55%    
  Thu, Mar 5 186 @Florida International L 76-77 46%    
  Sat, Mar 7 250 @Missouri St. W 71-69 58%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 11 - 9




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 1.6 3.1 3.0 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.1 11.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.7 2.8 4.4 2.8 1.1 0.2 0.0 12.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.8 2.5 0.5 0.0 11.9 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 3.3 5.1 2.3 0.3 0.0 11.5 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.7 4.9 2.4 0.3 0.0 10.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 2.5 0.3 0.0 9.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 1.3 4.3 2.9 0.4 0.0 9.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.2 2.8 0.6 0.0 7.7 8th
9th 0.1 0.8 2.4 2.5 0.7 0.0 6.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.6 1.9 0.6 0.1 4.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.1 0.4 0.0 3.2 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 1.6 12th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.0 3.7 5.7 7.9 10.0 11.5 12.0 11.8 10.7 8.9 6.5 4.1 2.1 0.9 0.3 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.1    0.1
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 98.2% 0.9    0.9 0.0
17-3 91.0% 1.9    1.6 0.3 0.0
16-4 72.9% 3.0    1.9 1.0 0.1 0.0
15-5 48.1% 3.1    1.5 1.3 0.3 0.0
14-6 18.4% 1.6    0.4 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.4% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.3% 11.3 6.6 3.4 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 40.9% 40.9% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 0.9% 36.3% 36.3% 12.1 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6
17-3 2.1% 29.5% 29.5% 12.4 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 1.5
16-4 4.1% 24.4% 24.4% 12.7 0.0 0.4 0.5 0.1 3.1
15-5 6.5% 19.8% 19.8% 12.9 0.3 0.7 0.2 0.0 5.2
14-6 8.9% 17.6% 17.6% 13.2 0.2 0.8 0.5 0.0 0.0 7.3
13-7 10.7% 12.5% 12.5% 13.5 0.1 0.6 0.6 0.1 9.4
12-8 11.8% 9.8% 9.8% 13.9 0.0 0.3 0.6 0.2 0.0 10.7
11-9 12.0% 6.1% 6.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 11.2
10-10 11.5% 3.7% 3.7% 14.9 0.1 0.4 0.0 11.1
9-11 10.0% 2.8% 2.8% 15.6 0.1 0.2 9.8
8-12 7.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.0 0.2 7.7
7-13 5.7% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 5.7
6-14 3.7% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.0 3.7
5-15 2.0% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 2.0
4-16 1.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 1.1
3-17 0.5% 0.5
2-18 0.2% 0.2
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 9.1% 9.1% 0.0% 13.4 0.1 1.7 3.4 2.3 1.1 0.4 90.9 0.0%