Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
Switch to All-time Team Page
Predictive Rating +1.1 #144
Expected Predictive Rating +2.4 #124
Pace 65.5 #274
Improvement -2.2 #290

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #187 B- D C+ F+ D+
Defense #112 B- B- C- C- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #306 1.21 #120 -1.8 #247
2 Pt. Jumpers 23% #117 0.76 #163 +1.2 #110
Three Pointers 43% #148 1.13 #41 +3.3 #77
1st FG Attempt 1.07 #103 +2.7 #102
Freethrows 0.24 #339 67% #322 0.16 #349
Second Chance 29.5% #218 0.87 #354 0.26 #306
Turnovers 15.8% #140
Total Offense -0.8 #187

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 43% #64 1.11 #115 -1.6 #238
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #135 0.65 #32 +0.7 #141
Three Pointers 35% #330 0.93 #77 +4.5 #30
1st FG Attempt 0.95 #70 +3.6 #69
Freethrows 0.31 #207 74% #284 0.23 #239
Second Chance 26.7% #54 1.05 #183 0.28 #89
Turnovers 15.2% #252
Total Defense +1.9 #112

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #278 0.4% #198
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 6.6% #76 -7.2% #60
Possession Length 18.1 #257 18.0 #279
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #224 0.12 #44
Improvement -3.1 #340 +0.9 #133

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 11.2% 13.7% 9.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.1 13.6
.500 or above 72.9% 85.2% 63.4%
.500 or above in Conference 89.3% 96.2% 83.9%
Conference Champion 3.8% 7.9% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round11.2% 13.7% 9.2%
Second Round0.6% 0.8% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Liberty (Home) - 43.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 37 - 69 - 12
Quad 47 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 270 @Evansville W 77 - 72 66% +8  1 - 0 +2 +5 B+ F B- -3 D+ B+ D-
 Wed, Nov 19 1 @Michigan L 61 - 86 2% -13  1 - 1 +3 -4 C- C C- +9 A+ A- B
 Sun, Nov 23 101 Murray St. W 90 - 87 35% +3  2 - 1 +8 +10 C+ A- B -2 C+ B F+
 Mon, Nov 24 65 George Washington L 79 - 92 24% -10  2 - 2 -4 +6 B- B+ D+ -10 F A+ F+
 Tue, Nov 25 83 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 28% +3  2 - 3 -3 +6 B+ F A -11 A+ F D+
 Mon, Dec 1 118 UAB W 76 - 61 55% +4  3 - 3 +15 +7 C A B- +8 A+ F+ A
 Sun, Dec 7 75 Belmont L 62 - 83 37% -8  3 - 4 -16 -10 F C- A+ -6 C+ B- F
 Wed, Dec 17 156 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 65% +7  4 - 4 1 - 0 -2 -7 D- F F +5 A+ C+ B-
 Mon, Dec 29 4 @Houston L 60 - 69 3% -5  4 - 5 +15 +10 A+ D+ F +4 A- A D+
 Fri, Jan 2 221 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 77% +19  5 - 5 2 - 0 +30 +32 A+ F A +5 C B+ A
 Sun, Jan 4 117 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 54% +5  6 - 5 3 - 0 +1 -3 B F B+ +4 C B A+
 Thu, Jan 8 256 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 63% +5  6 - 6 3 - 1 -5 +6 D+ D- C+ -11 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 141 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 38% +0  7 - 6 4 - 1 +8 -9 D- F B- +17 A- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 221 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 56% +10  7 - 7 4 - 2 -2 -7 D C+ D- +6 A- A F
 Sat, Jan 17 177 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 70% +0  8 - 7 5 - 2 -1 +8 A+ A+ F -9 C- C D-
 Fri, Jan 23 196 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 51% -9  8 - 8 5 - 3 -16 -5 D- D+ B -14 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 95 Liberty L 69 - 70 44%
 Sat, Jan 31 166 Western Kentucky W 75 - 70 66%
 Wed, Feb 4 181 Florida International W 78 - 72 69%
 Sat, Feb 7 297 @Delaware W 69 - 63 70%
 Thu, Feb 12 156 @Kennesaw St. L 76 - 78 42%
 Sat, Feb 14 166 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 73 45%
 Wed, Feb 18 117 @Sam Houston St. L 71 - 76 33%
 Sat, Feb 21 297 Delaware W 72 - 60 86%
 Thu, Feb 26 256 UTEP W 72 - 63 81%
 Sat, Feb 28 141 New Mexico St. W 72 - 69 60%
 Thu, Mar 5 181 @Florida International L 75 - 76 49%
 Sat, Mar 7 177 @Missouri St. L 67 - 68 48%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 8 +1 -1 B- D C+ +2 B- B- C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 3.8 1st
2nd 0.3 3.5 10.3 10.1 4.9 1.1 0.1 30.3 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.4 10.3 6.9 1.5 0.1 22.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.1 7.9 5.1 0.6 0.0 14.8 4th
5th 0.2 4.3 5.2 0.7 0.0 10.4 5th
6th 0.0 1.4 4.8 1.0 0.0 7.3 6th
7th 0.2 2.8 1.9 0.0 4.9 7th
8th 0.1 0.9 1.9 0.2 3.0 8th
9th 0.3 1.3 0.5 2.1 9th
10th 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.0 12th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.8 2.9 6.8 12.4 17.9 19.6 18.0 12.5 6.4 2.1 0.3 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 78.5% 0.3    0.2 0.1
16-4 49.5% 1.1    0.6 0.4 0.0
15-5 21.8% 1.4    0.5 0.9 0.1
14-6 7.1% 0.9    0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.8% 3.8 1.4 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.3% 35.4% 35.4% 11.6 0.1 0.1 0.2
16-4 2.1% 23.0% 23.0% 12.2 0.1 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.6
15-5 6.4% 20.1% 20.1% 12.6 0.0 0.6 0.6 0.1 5.2
14-6 12.5% 17.5% 17.5% 12.9 0.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 10.3
13-7 18.0% 15.1% 15.1% 13.1 0.4 1.6 0.8 0.0 15.3
12-8 19.6% 12.1% 12.1% 13.6 0.1 0.9 1.2 0.2 17.3
11-9 17.9% 6.9% 6.9% 14.1 0.2 0.7 0.3 16.7
10-10 12.4% 4.4% 4.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 0.3 11.8
9-11 6.8% 2.8% 2.8% 15.3 0.1 0.1 6.6
8-12 2.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 2.9
7-13 0.8% 1.8% 1.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
6-14 0.2% 0.2
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 13.3 88.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 11.6 43.5 56.5