Middle Tennessee
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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All team stats adjusted for opponents. See methodology page for details.

Predictive Rating -0.2 167
Results Rating -0.1 158
Consistency 0.17 261
Pace 65.3 266
Improvement -2.2 258

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense C 159 C+ C- C D D+
Defense C 182 C B- D+ C- C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% 326 C+ 61% 103 -2.3 265
2 Pt. Jumpers 36% 202 B- 41% 84 +1.8 81
Three Pointers 43% 133 C+ 35% 132 +2.0 113
Shot Selection/Accuracy D+ -0.7 289 B- +2.3 99
1st FG Attempt C+ 1.05 127
Second Chance C 30.4% 178 D+ 0.95 295 C- 0.29 223
Opponents' Steals B- 8.7% 107
Other Turnovers C- 7.7% 251
Turnovers C 16.4% 156
Freethrows D 0.27 295 D 68% 315 D 0.18 322
Total Offense C +0.1 159

Assists Opponents' Blocks
Close Shots C- 46% 226 B+ 7.5% 25
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots D+ 20% 251 C+ 4.1% 121
Three Pointers C+ 85% 168 C+ 0.7% 147
Total C- 54% 215 B+ 3.8% 19


Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% 105 C 58% 172 +1.6 230
2 Pt. Jumpers 21% 163 C+ 37% 111 -0.3 164
Three Pointers 38% 275 C 34% 180 -1.7 114
Shot Selection/Accuracy C- +0.2 206 C -0.5 154
1st FG Attempt C 1.01 159
Second Chance B 26.2% 42 C- 1.05 220 B- 0.28 82
Turnovers from Steals C- 8.6% 243
Other Turnovers D+ 6.6% 266
Turnovers D+ 15.3% 267
Freethrows C 0.31 204 F+ 76% 353 C- 0.24 256
Total Defense C -0.3 182

Assists Blocks
Close Shots B 43% 67 C+ 12.4% 112
2 Pt. Jumpers Shots B- 22% 104 B- 6.8% 70
Three Pointers C 84% 193 B+ 1.9% 29
Total B- 51% 83 B 7.3% 55

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Possession Length 18.0 243 17.8 259
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 216 0.12 43
Consistency 0.13 241 0.13 223
Improvement -0.6 219 -1.6 270

NCAA Tournament Selection
At-Large Selection Status Out of Consideration
Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Prediction Ranges
Pessimistic
5th Percentile 		Expected
50th Percentile 		Optimistic
95th Percentile
Predictive Rating Rank 167 167 166
Results Rating Rank 159 158 158
Conference Record 11 - 9 11 - 9 11 - 9
Conference Finish 3 3 3
NCAA Tourney Seed None None None
NCAA Tourney Finish None None None

NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0% n/a n/a
#1 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 2 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 4 Seed 0% n/a n/a
Top 6 Seed 0% n/a n/a
NCAA Tourney Bid 0% n/a n/a
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0% n/a n/a
Average Seed n/a n/a n/a
.500 or above 0% n/a n/a
.500 or above in Conference 100% 100% 100.0%
Conference Champion 0% 0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 0% 0% 0.0%
First Four0% n/a n/a
First Round0% n/a n/a
Second Round0% n/a n/a
Sweet Sixteen0% n/a n/a
Elite Eight0% n/a n/a
Final Four0% n/a n/a
Championship Game0% n/a n/a
National Champion0% n/a n/a

Projected Record by Quadrant
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 38 - 58 - 11
Quad 46 - 414 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Avg Time Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Wed, Nov 12 294 @Evansville W 77 - 72 67% +8  90% 1 - 0 C +0 C- -1 B- F C+ C+ +2 C- B D+
 Wed, Nov 19 2 @Michigan L 61 - 86 1% -13  7% 1 - 1 C+ +4 D -5 C- C+ D+ A+ +12 A+ B+ B-
 Sun, Nov 23 127 Murray St. W 90 - 87 40% +3  76% 2 - 1 B- +5 B +6 C A B+ C -1 C B+ F
 Mon, Nov 24 86 George Washington L 79 - 92 25% -10  2% 2 - 2 D+ -6 C+ +3 B- A- D+ F+ -9 F A+ F
 Tue, Nov 25 80 McNeese St. L 62 - 72 23% +3  72% 2 - 3 C- -3 B +6 B+ F A F -11 A+ F D-
 Mon, Dec 1 124 UAB W 76 - 61 51% +4  47% 3 - 3 B+ +15 B- +6 C- A B- A +10 A+ F A
 Sun, Dec 7 78 Belmont L 62 - 83 32% -8  13% 3 - 4 F+ -16 F -15 F C- A+ C -1 B- B F
 Wed, Dec 17 160 Kennesaw St. W 68 - 67 60% +7  95% 4 - 4 1 - 0 C- -2 F+ -9 F+ F F+ A- +7 A+ B- B-
 Mon, Dec 29 5 @Houston L 60 - 69 2% -5  17% 4 - 5 A- +17 B+ +8 A+ C- F B+ +7 A- A D
 Fri, Jan 2 180 Louisiana Tech W 88 - 51 65% +19  97% 5 - 5 2 - 0 A+ +33 A+ +31 A+ F A+ A +9 B A- A-
 Sun, Jan 4 116 Sam Houston St. W 68 - 67 49% +5  72% 6 - 5 3 - 0 C +1 D- -6 B- F B A- +8 C B A+
 Thu, Jan 8 261 @UTEP L 80 - 83 OT 59% +5  79% 6 - 6 3 - 1 D+ -6 B- +4 C+ D- B- F+ -9 C+ F F
 Sat, Jan 10 184 @New Mexico St. W 59 - 55 43% +0  51% 7 - 6 4 - 1 B- +6 F -11 D- F C+ A+ +17 A- A+ B
 Wed, Jan 14 180 @Louisiana Tech L 58 - 59 42% +10  91% 7 - 7 4 - 2 C +1 F+ -9 D- B D A +10 A+ A+ F
 Sat, Jan 17 195 Missouri St. W 90 - 87 2OT 68% +0  41% 8 - 7 5 - 2 C- -2 B- +4 A+ A+ F D -6 C- C- D
 Fri, Jan 23 203 @Jacksonville St. L 58 - 75 46% -9  2% 8 - 8 5 - 3 F+ -16 D- -7 D- D+ B+ F -12 F A+ D
 Thu, Jan 29 126 Liberty L 65 - 81 52% -12  4% 8 - 9 5 - 4 F+ -17 D -6 F A C- F -13 F A+ F
 Sat, Jan 31 164 Western Kentucky L 60 - 65 60% -1  41% 8 - 10 5 - 5 D+ -8 F -13 C- F C- B +5 D+ A+ D
 Wed, Feb 4 191 Florida International L 84 - 88 OT 67% -1  16% 8 - 11 5 - 6 D -9 D -6 C F A+ C- -2 B- A+ F
 Sat, Feb 7 288 @Delaware L 88 - 89 OT 66% -0  46% 8 - 12 5 - 7 D+ -5 A +12 B- A+ C- F -17 F F+ C-
 Thu, Feb 12 160 @Kennesaw St. W 90 - 87 37% -3  15% 9 - 12 6 - 7 B- +6 A+ +15 A+ D C- F+ -9 D- F F
 Sat, Feb 14 164 @Western Kentucky L 80 - 82 37% -3  25% 9 - 13 6 - 8 C +1 B +6 C A+ C+ D+ -5 F C A+
 Wed, Feb 18 116 @Sam Houston St. L 70 - 78 27% -7  0% 9 - 14 6 - 9 C- -2 D+ -3 D+ F A+ C+ +1 B+ D+ F+
 Sat, Feb 21 288 Delaware W 78 - 66 83% +9  82% 10 - 14 7 - 9 C +2 B +7 F+ A+ A+ D+ -4 C+ C+ C
 Thu, Feb 26 261 UTEP W 77 - 67 79% +11  96% 11 - 14 8 - 9 C +1 C+ +2 B- C+ D C -0 F A+ B+
 Sat, Feb 28 184 New Mexico St. W 86 - 85 OT 66% -3  26% 12 - 14 9 - 9 C- -3 C+ +2 B+ A F D -6 C- C- F+
 Thu, Mar 5 191 @Florida International W 73 - 67 44% -2  29% 13 - 14 10 - 9 B- +7 C +0 D A+ D- A- +7 A F A-
 Sat, Mar 7 195 @Missouri St. W 75 - 63 45% +6  86% 14 - 14 11 - 9 B+ +13 C+ +3 C C- B+ A +10 C A+ D-
 Thu, Mar 12 180 Louisiana Tech L 69 - 80 54% -8  0% 14 - 15 D- -12 C -0 A+ F F F -13 F C- F
Totals 14 - 15 11 - 9 +0 C +0 D B- D+ C +0 C+ D D



Game Detail
Grades are adjusted for opponent strength in each category. Game stats are not adjusted for oppoent strength. See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
Offense Defense
Tot Off First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows Tot Def First Field Goal Attempt Second Chance TOs Freethrows
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot Shot Accuracy Shot Selection Points Per Shot
2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot 2 C 2 L 3 Tot Off Reb PPP Tot Att Perc Tot
Season Ratings C C+ B- C+ B- 33% 36% 43% D+ C+ C D+ C- C D D D C C C+ C C 41% 21% 38% C- C B C- B- D+ C F+ C-
1.09 61% 41% 35% +2 -1 1.05 30% 1.0 .29 16% .27 68% .18 1.09 58% 37% 34% -1 0 1.01 26% 1.1 .28 15% .31 76% .20
Nov
12		 Evansville C- A+ A+ F B 27% 31% 42% F+ B- D F F C+ C+ F D- C+ C- F+ A+ C- 44% 31% 25% C- C- B B+ B D+ F B- F
1.08 73% 65% 26% +7 -2 1.13 26% 0.6 .15 15% .28 59% .17 1.01 62% 47% 25% +1 -1 1.02 19% 1.0 .19 17% .41 71% .29
Nov
19		 Michigan D F+ F D C- 17% 31% 53% D+ C- C+ C- C+ D+ C- B- C- A+ D- A+ A+ A+ 49% 13% 38% C+ A+ A D- B+ B- D+ C+ C-
0.78 40% 22% 29% -12 -3 0.73 27% 0.9 .24 19% .19 75% .14 1.10 70% 29% 14% -6 +2 0.93 31% 1.5 .46 17% .40 73% .29
Nov
23		 Murray St. B D+ B B- C 54% 27% 19% C+ C B+ A- A B+ D+ F F C F B- C+ C- 36% 25% 38% B+ C A+ F B+ F F A- D-
1.19 53% 44% 36% -1 0 1.02 40% 1.2 .47 13% .27 56% .15 1.15 70% 36% 33% +3 -1 1.07 22% 1.4 .30 11% .43 69% .30
Nov
24		 George Washington C+ A C- C- B 40% 24% 36% C- B- F A+ A- D+ A+ A- A+ F+ D A+ F F 51% 8% 42% D+ F A+ F+ A+ F F+ F F
1.10 70% 33% 33% +3 0 1.08 19% 2.2 .41 20% .40 78% .31 1.28 67% 25% 50% +13 +3 1.34 15% 1.3 .19 13% .38 79% .30
Nov
25		 McNeese St. B F A+ A+ A+ 19% 33% 49% F B+ B+ F F A F F F F A+ A+ A+ A+ 43% 25% 33% B A+ F F F D- F F F
1.09 25% 50% 48% +8 -3 1.12 41% 0.5 .21 19% .31 57% .17 1.27 41% 20% 23% -17 0 0.68 51% 1.4 .71 11% .49 92% .45
Dec
1		 UAB B- C F B C- 42% 23% 36% C C- B- A+ A B- D+ A+ C A A+ B- A+ A+ 36% 18% 46% C- A+ D- F F A B+ F B-
1.15 59% 25% 37% -1 0 1.00 29% 1.3 .38 15% .21 83% .18 0.92 33% 33% 22% -18 0 0.66 37% 1.3 .46 17% .25 79% .20
Dec
7		 Belmont F F B F F 14% 27% 59% F F D A- C- A+ D+ C- D+ C D- F+ C+ C+ 46% 19% 35% B B- B C+ B F A A+ A+
0.88 38% 40% 18% -16 -3 0.64 26% 1.2 .30 11% .26 75% .19 1.18 69% 45% 35% +7 +1 1.18 24% 1.2 .30 11% .21 38% .08
Dec
17		 Kennesaw St. F+ C- F C- D 29% 31% 40% F F+ B+ F F F+ A+ C- A+ A- B A A+ A+ 56% 8% 35% F A+ F A+ B- B- D F F
0.98 54% 29% 33% -5 -2 0.89 37% 0.4 .15 20% .58 75% .43 0.97 52% 25% 18% -13 +3 0.81 43% 0.7 .31 19% .39 82% .32
Dec
29		 Houston B+ A+ A A+ A+ 29% 17% 54% B- A+ A+ F C- F F F F B+ F A+ A+ A 35% 33% 33% C A- C- A+ A D D F F
1.01 75% 43% 41% +11 0 1.24 39% 0.5 .21 32% .15 50% .07 1.16 88% 13% 27% -1 -2 0.96 39% 0.8 .31 10% .32 88% .28
Jan
2		 Louisiana Tech A+ A+ F A+ A+ 13% 8% 79% D+ A+ C F F A+ F F F A C- D- A+ B+ 37% 24% 39% C+ B A+ B A- A- F D F
1.51 100% 25% 58% +33 0 1.67 32% 0.6 .19 12% .16 25% .04 0.87 57% 44% 20% -7 0 0.87 26% 0.8 .19 22% .42 68% .29
Jan
4		 Sam Houston St. D- F C A+ B+ 26% 30% 44% F+ B- D- F F B F A+ F A- A- F F C 51% 27% 22% C+ C B+ C B A+ B B B
1.00 43% 38% 46% +4 -2 1.06 23% 0.2 .05 15% .17 90% .15 0.98 48% 46% 45% +1 0 1.04 31% 1.0 .31 25% .23 67% .16
Jan
8		 UTEP B- A+ F B+ B- 26% 30% 44% D- C+ F B D- B- F A+ C- F+ D A D- C 28% 40% 32% A- C+ F F F F F C- F
1.12 79% 25% 38% +4 -2 1.06 22% 1.1 .25 17% .29 88% .25 1.16 64% 25% 38% -2 -3 0.92 34% 1.3 .45 13% .58 69% .40
Jan
10		 New Mexico St. F B+ F F D- 38% 23% 38% C D- F D- F C+ A- F C- A+ B- C+ A+ A 27% 23% 50% C- A- A+ A A+ B F A+ D
0.91 67% 18% 22% -8 0 0.85 17% 1.0 .17 14% .43 63% .27 0.85 54% 36% 25% -8 -1 0.83 20% 0.8 .15 17% .41 59% .24
Jan
14		 Louisiana Tech F+ F F B- F+ 47% 16% 38% B D- C+ A- B D B- F F+ A A C+ A+ A+ 65% 15% 19% F A+ A+ A- A+ F F F F
0.90 43% 14% 35% -10 +1 0.84 34% 1.2 .40 20% .35 50% .17 0.91 44% 38% 10% -16 +3 0.75 23% 0.7 .15 11% .36 76% .28
Jan
17		 Missouri St. B- D- B A+ A+ 36% 14% 50% A+ A+ C+ A+ A+ F B B+ B+ D B+ A+ F C+ 49% 18% 33% F C- D- B C- D D- B+ D+
1.18 56% 43% 52% +13 +1 1.30 33% 1.6 .52 24% .40 78% .31 1.14 54% 10% 47% 0 +1 1.04 36% 1.0 .36 14% .40 62% .25
Jan
23		 Jacksonville St. D- F A+ D- F+ 40% 17% 43% C+ D- C D- D+ B+ F F F F B A F F 60% 9% 32% F F B- A+ A+ D D+ F F
0.95 42% 50% 30% -7 +1 0.89 28% 0.9 .25 13% .26 57% .15 1.23 50% 25% 60% +7 +3 1.21 26% 0.6 .15 15% .37 84% .31
Jan
29		 Liberty D F+ F D+ F+ 26% 24% 50% D- F B- A+ A C- A F B F F+ F F F 52% 8% 40% C- F A+ A+ A+ F A C- B+
1.06 45% 30% 33% -6 -1 0.88 34% 1.5 .51 18% .32 63% .20 1.32 70% 75% 48% +17 +3 1.42 0% 0.0 .00 8% .18 70% .12
Jan
31		 Western Kentucky F B- A F C- 40% 20% 40% B- C- C- F F C- A+ F C+ B B D+ D+ D+ 35% 19% 46% C+ D+ A A+ A+ D A+ F+ A+
0.91 63% 50% 25% -1 0 1.00 27% 0.5 .14 18% .53 55% .29 0.98 47% 40% 36% -2 0 0.98 24% 0.4 .10 12% .17 80% .14
Feb
4		 Florida International D A- A- D+ C 21% 7% 71% C- C F F F A+ A+ D+ A+ C- B C+ F C+ 48% 34% 18% A- B- A+ A- A+ F F D+ F
1.02 67% 50% 33% +1 +1 1.05 22% 0.3 .07 15% .47 70% .33 1.07 52% 37% 40% -2 -1 0.96 25% 0.9 .23 13% .52 70% .37
Feb
7		 Delaware A A+ A+ D B+ 11% 30% 59% F B- A+ A A+ C- B+ F C F D+ B F F 35% 7% 59% F F D+ F F+ C- F F F
1.28 83% 63% 31% +8 -3 1.11 42% 1.3 .53 15% .32 68% .22 1.30 63% 33% 52% +17 +2 1.39 22% 1.2 .26 18% .37 90% .34
Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows Shot Accuracy Shot Selection PPS 2nd Chance TOs Freethrows
Feb
12		 Kennesaw St. A+ A A+ A+ A+ 44% 15% 42% B- A+ C F D C- A- A- A+ F+ C F D D- 43% 7% 50% D- D- B+ F F F C+ A B
1.28 67% 57% 45% +13 +1 1.31 31% 0.8 .23 17% .48 82% .40 1.24 57% 50% 37% +3 +2 1.11 29% 1.7 .50 11% .34 62% .21
Feb
14		 Western Kentucky B A+ B- F C 34% 25% 41% C- C A- A+ A+ C+ F C- F D+ F D+ C- F 40% 12% 48% D F A+ F C A+ F F F
1.13 79% 43% 22% +1 -1 1.02 36% 1.2 .44 17% .22 69% .15 1.16 65% 40% 35% +4 +1 1.12 21% 1.5 .32 20% .56 88% .49
Feb
18		 Sam Houston St. D+ C+ B+ F D+ 31% 28% 41% D D+ F+ F F A+ F F F C+ C A+ C+ A- 56% 17% 28% F+ B+ D C D+ F+ B- F D
1.01 61% 44% 25% -3 -1 0.93 21% 0.8 .16 9% .24 53% .13 1.12 57% 11% 33% -6 +2 0.94 39% 1.0 .39 13% .25 93% .23
Feb
21		 Delaware B A+ C- F F+ 31% 29% 41% D F+ A A+ A+ A+ B+ A A D+ F F A- C- 24% 29% 48% A C+ A+ F C+ C F F F
1.26 73% 36% 20% -5 -2 0.90 41% 1.3 .54 8% .33 89% .30 1.06 70% 50% 30% +3 -2 1.05 8% 2.0 .16 18% .41 86% .35
Feb
26		 UTEP C+ C A+ C- B+ 24% 35% 41% F B- B- C- C+ D B B A- C B- F F F 39% 20% 41% F F A+ A+ A+ B+ D D+ D
1.13 58% 56% 33% +6 -3 1.08 36% 1.0 .36 21% .41 77% .31 0.98 56% 44% 47% +9 0 1.20 12% 0.7 .08 21% .31 71% .22
Feb
28		 New Mexico St. C+ B- A+ C A 25% 33% 41% F B+ B- A+ A F A B- A D C- F+ B D+ 27% 35% 37% A- C- C D+ C- F+ B D B-
1.14 62% 53% 33% +5 -3 1.08 33% 1.5 .50 20% .45 78% .35 1.13 59% 45% 30% +1 -3 0.98 33% 1.0 .33 11% .24 75% .18
Mar
5		 Florida International C F A- B- D- 34% 13% 53% C D A- A+ A+ D- B A+ A A- A D A+ A+ 57% 14% 29% F A F C F A- C+ A- B-
1.06 38% 50% 36% -4 +1 0.96 42% 1.3 .55 23% .36 84% .30 0.97 46% 43% 21% -11 +2 0.84 45% 1.1 .48 22% .30 63% .19
Mar
7		 Missouri St. C+ A+ C B B- 20% 47% 33% F C F A+ C- B+ F A+ D+ A F C- A+ C- 28% 32% 40% A- C A+ A+ A+ D- B D B-
1.13 80% 39% 38% +7 -5 1.06 18% 1.8 .32 14% .28 88% .24 0.95 86% 38% 25% +2 -2 1.02 20% 0.4 .09 14% .30 71% .21
Mar
12		 Louisiana Tech C D+ B A+ A+ 26% 18% 56% D+ A+ C+ F F F A+ F A+ F C A- F F 39% 31% 29% B+ F C+ D C- F F+ F F
1.04 50% 43% 45% +9 -1 1.18 34% 0.4 .13 24% .66 64% .42 1.21 55% 31% 60% +8 -1 1.16 34% 0.9 .31 14% .33 79% .26



Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 100.0 100.0 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
12th 12th
Total 100.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 100.0% 100.0
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%