Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -1.2 #177
Expected Predictive Rating -0.4 #169
Pace 62.6 #336
Improvement +4.4 #23

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #185 C- C+ C- B- D+
Defense #184 C- C- C D A

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 33% #323 1.33 #26 -0.7 #203
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #143 0.64 #328 -0.6 #206
Three Pointers 45% #94 0.93 #286 +0.2 #170
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #213 -1.1 #210
Freethrows 0.35 #42 68% #309 0.24 #112
Second Chance 33.2% #105 1.04 #181 0.35 #118
Turnovers 17.3% #242
Total Offense -0.7 #185

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 30% #349 1.32 #340 +2.7 #90
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #9 0.73 #131 -3.2 #353
Three Pointers 40% #204 1.08 #269 -0.9 #220
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #222 -1.3 #222
Freethrows 0.34 #305 73% #236 0.25 #308
Second Chance 31.7% #232 1.10 #263 0.35 #256
Turnovers 16.9% #156
Total Defense -0.5 #184

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -1.3% #269 -3.6% #8
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.0% #189 6.5% #303
Possession Length 18.5 #296 17.9 #269
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.15 #227 0.16 #160
Improvement +3.5 #29 +1.0 #127

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.8% 7.3% 4.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.1 14.0 14.3
.500 or above 65.4% 79.6% 53.4%
.500 or above in Conference 87.3% 95.4% 80.4%
Conference Champion 2.2% 3.9% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round5.8% 7.3% 4.6%
Second Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Sam Houston St. (Home) - 45.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 5
Quad 34 - 75 - 12
Quad 411 - 315 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 11 151 Arkansas St. L 85 - 86 55% +7  0 - 1 -3 -1 C- C D+ -3 C+ D+ B-
 Sat, Nov 15 158 @Texas Arlington L 49 - 67 33% -7  0 - 2 -15 -17 F F F +2 F+ A- C+
 Sat, Nov 22 191 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74 - 67 64% -2  1 - 2 +2 +9 C+ D+ A+ -6 B+ F A
 Mon, Nov 24 224 LIU Brooklyn L 61 - 75 70% +1  1 - 3 -21 -8 F B B- -15 F C- C+
 Sat, Dec 6 73 @Tulsa L 74 - 98 13% -14  1 - 4 -13 +5 A D F -20 F B F+
 Fri, Dec 12 79 @Xavier L 57 - 75 14% -7  1 - 5 -8 -5 D- D D- -5 C- C D+
 Tue, Dec 16 332 Oral Roberts W 63 - 62 87% +2  2 - 5 -13 -10 D+ F C- -3 B- C C-
 Tue, Dec 23 247 Lindenwood W 70 - 65 74% +5  3 - 5 -3 -4 F+ B A- +1 B A F
 Mon, Dec 29 297 @Delaware W 61 - 43 63% +12  4 - 5 1 - 0 +13 -3 D+ F+ D +19 A+ C- A+
 Fri, Jan 2 256 UTEP W 79 - 55 75% +16  5 - 5 2 - 0 +16 +20 B- A+ C+ +1 C+ C- B
 Sun, Jan 4 141 New Mexico St. W 89 - 82 52% +8  6 - 5 3 - 0 +5 +12 B A+ D- -7 D C B
 Wed, Jan 7 156 @Kennesaw St. L 80 - 90 33% -8  6 - 6 3 - 1 -7 +3 C- B- D+ -9 F D A+
 Sat, Jan 10 181 Florida International W 79 - 71 62% +6  7 - 6 4 - 1 +4 +2 C A D +1 A+ C- C
 Wed, Jan 14 166 @Western Kentucky L 72 - 87 36% -6  7 - 7 4 - 2 -13 +6 D A+ C- -19 F F D
 Sat, Jan 17 144 @Middle Tennessee L 87 - 90 2OT 30% -0  7 - 8 4 - 3 +1 +11 B B C+ -9 F F A+
 Thu, Jan 22 141 @New Mexico St. W 84 - 75 30% +5  8 - 8 5 - 3 +13 +19 A+ D D -5 A- D F
 Sat, Jan 24 256 @UTEP W 62 - 57 54% -2  9 - 8 6 - 3 +3 -5 F+ C+ F +9 C+ A+ D+
 Wed, Jan 28 117 Sam Houston St. L 72 - 73 46%
 Sat, Jan 31 196 Jacksonville St. W 69 - 65 65%
 Sat, Feb 7 95 @Liberty L 64 - 74 18%
 Thu, Feb 12 221 Louisiana Tech W 66 - 61 69%
 Sat, Feb 14 297 Delaware W 70 - 61 81%
 Wed, Feb 18 156 Kennesaw St. W 77 - 76 56%
 Sat, Feb 21 181 @Florida International L 73 - 76 40%
 Thu, Feb 26 221 @Louisiana Tech L 63 - 64 47%
 Sat, Feb 28 117 @Sam Houston St. L 69 - 76 26%
 Thu, Mar 5 166 Western Kentucky W 73 - 71 59%
 Sat, Mar 7 144 Middle Tennessee W 68 - 67 52%
Totals 15 - 13 12 - 8 -1 -1 C- C+ C- -1 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.5 0.1 2.2 1st
2nd 0.3 4.1 9.6 8.0 2.9 0.5 0.0 25.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 3.4 10.3 5.7 1.0 0.1 20.5 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 8.9 5.8 0.7 0.0 16.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 4.9 6.5 0.8 0.0 12.5 5th
6th 0.1 1.6 6.3 1.4 0.0 9.3 6th
7th 0.3 3.6 2.2 0.1 6.2 7th
8th 0.1 1.2 2.6 0.2 4.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.3 0.5 0.0 2.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.4 0.4 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
12th 12th
Total 0.1 0.9 3.2 8.6 15.1 20.4 21.0 16.1 9.7 3.8 0.9 0.1 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 79.2% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 49.5% 0.5    0.2 0.2 0.0
15-5 21.8% 0.8    0.3 0.5 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.7    0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.0% 0.2    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.2% 2.2 0.8 1.2 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.1% 33.3% 33.3% 12.4 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.9% 22.9% 22.9% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.7
15-5 3.8% 12.4% 12.4% 13.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.0 3.4
14-6 9.7% 11.0% 11.0% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 8.7
13-7 16.1% 8.2% 8.2% 14.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.3 14.8
12-8 21.0% 6.9% 6.9% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 19.6
11-9 20.4% 4.1% 4.1% 14.9 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.1 19.6
10-10 15.1% 2.1% 2.1% 15.0 0.0 0.3 0.0 14.8
9-11 8.6% 1.0% 1.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 8.5
8-12 3.2% 0.6% 0.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 3.2
7-13 0.9% 0.9
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 14.1 94.2 0.0%