Missouri St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#250
Expected Predictive Rating-9.8#308
Pace61.7#355
Improvement+0.0#192

Offense
Total Offense-2.9#243
First Shot-2.3#236
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#217
Layup/Dunks-0.4#193
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#317
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.8#246
Freethrows+2.7#42
Improvement+0.7#109

Defense
Total Defense-2.2#248
First Shot-1.0#216
After Offensive Rebounds-1.2#276
Layups/Dunks+1.5#125
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.3#349
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#198
Freethrows+1.1#116
Improvement-0.8#244
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.4% 1.6% 1.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.0 15.0 15.4
.500 or above 10.2% 13.0% 3.7%
.500 or above in Conference 22.3% 25.1% 15.7%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.3% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 23.9% 21.1% 30.4%
First Four0.4% 0.4% 0.4%
First Round1.3% 1.5% 0.7%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Oral Roberts (Home) - 70.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 33 - 93 - 14
Quad 47 - 610 - 19


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 11 153 Arkansas St. L 85-86 40%     0 - 1 -3.6 +0.3 -3.8
  Sat, Nov 15 177 @Texas Arlington L 49-67 25%     0 - 2 -16.1 -19.2 +2.6
  Sat, Nov 22 208 UT Rio Grande Valley W 74-67 54%     1 - 2 +0.9 +8.0 -6.3
  Mon, Nov 24 213 LIU Brooklyn L 61-75 54%     1 - 3 -20.3 -7.5 -14.4
  Sat, Dec 6 83 @Tulsa L 74-98 9%     1 - 4 -13.9 +6.3 -21.2
  Fri, Dec 12 77 @Xavier L 57-75 8%     1 - 5 -7.4 -4.2 -5.1
  Tue, Dec 16 300 Oral Roberts W 75-69 70%    
  Tue, Dec 23 237 Lindenwood W 72-70 58%    
  Mon, Dec 29 282 @Delaware L 66-68 44%    
  Fri, Jan 2 218 UTEP W 65-64 55%    
  Sun, Jan 4 132 New Mexico St. L 64-68 36%    
  Wed, Jan 7 160 @Kennesaw St. L 72-80 23%    
  Sat, Jan 10 186 Florida International L 71-72 48%    
  Wed, Jan 14 145 @Western Kentucky L 68-77 21%    
  Sat, Jan 17 154 @Middle Tennessee L 66-74 23%    
  Thu, Jan 22 132 @New Mexico St. L 61-71 19%    
  Sat, Jan 24 218 @UTEP L 62-67 34%    
  Wed, Jan 28 126 Sam Houston St. L 70-75 34%    
  Sat, Jan 31 252 Jacksonville St. W 66-63 61%    
  Sat, Feb 7 108 @Liberty L 62-74 14%    
  Thu, Feb 12 179 Louisiana Tech L 62-63 47%    
  Sat, Feb 14 282 Delaware W 69-65 65%    
  Wed, Feb 18 160 Kennesaw St. L 75-77 42%    
  Sat, Feb 21 186 @Florida International L 68-74 29%    
  Thu, Feb 26 179 @Louisiana Tech L 59-66 27%    
  Sat, Feb 28 126 @Sam Houston St. L 67-78 18%    
  Thu, Mar 5 145 Western Kentucky L 71-74 40%    
  Sat, Mar 7 154 Middle Tennessee L 69-71 42%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 0.7 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 2.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.0 3.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.5 1.6 0.4 0.1 4.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 1.8 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.3 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.9 3.4 1.1 0.1 6.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.3 2.1 0.2 0.0 8.5 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 5.1 3.1 0.4 0.0 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.2 5.2 3.7 0.8 0.0 12.3 9th
10th 0.1 0.6 2.7 5.6 4.4 0.9 0.0 14.3 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.4 3.9 5.5 4.1 1.0 0.1 16.2 11th
12th 0.3 1.3 2.8 4.3 4.1 2.5 0.7 0.1 16.0 12th
Total 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.8 8.6 11.0 12.8 12.8 11.7 10.3 8.0 5.7 3.9 2.3 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
17-3 90.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 80.5% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 52.2% 0.4    0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
14-6 21.3% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 22.6% 22.6% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 23.4% 23.4% 13.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.7% 13.8% 13.8% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
14-6 1.3% 13.1% 13.1% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-7 2.3% 7.7% 7.7% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.1
12-8 3.9% 5.0% 5.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.7
11-9 5.7% 3.4% 3.4% 15.4 0.1 0.1 5.5
10-10 8.0% 2.0% 2.0% 15.7 0.1 0.1 7.9
9-11 10.3% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1 10.2
8-12 11.7% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.6
7-13 12.8% 0.7% 0.7% 16.0 0.1 12.7
6-14 12.8% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-15 11.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.0
4-16 8.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 8.6
3-17 5.8% 5.8
2-18 3.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.0
1-19 1.3% 1.3
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.6 0.0%