Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -2.3 #196
Expected Predictive Rating -3.9 #224
Pace 62.2 #343
Improvement +5.2 #15

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #215 C C- C- B- A-
Defense #185 C C+ C- D D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 49% #6 1.01 #335 +2.2 #105
2 Pt. Jumpers 11% #341 0.61 #347 -4.2 #350
Three Pointers 40% #201 1.10 #68 +1.2 #141
1st FG Attempt 1.00 #201 -0.8 #199
Freethrows 0.36 #35 68% #313 0.24 #102
Second Chance 29.5% #219 1.00 #241 0.29 #237
Turnovers 17.0% #219
Total Offense -1.7 #215

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #171 1.08 #77 +1.2 #132
2 Pt. Jumpers 17% #286 0.78 #230 +1.1 #111
Three Pointers 44% #100 1.03 #213 -1.7 #267
1st FG Attempt 1.01 #164 +0.6 #161
Freethrows 0.32 #259 78% #358 0.25 #305
Second Chance 29.0% #117 1.04 #169 0.30 #130
Turnovers 15.5% #231
Total Defense -0.6 #185

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.8% #13 1.0% #262
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -5.3% #268 -2.1% #143
Possession Length 18.8 #315 18.0 #288
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.13 #275 0.15 #115
Improvement +5.2 #3 +0.1 #189

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 3.6% 4.9% 2.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 22.5% 36.5% 14.5%
.500 or above in Conference 65.0% 81.1% 55.9%
Conference Champion 0.7% 1.5% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.1% 1.0%
First Four0.4% 0.3% 0.5%
First Round3.5% 4.7% 2.7%
Second Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Florida International (Away) - 36.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 95 - 12
Quad 48 - 513 - 17


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Fri, Nov 14 237 Coastal Carolina W 74 - 67 69% +7  1 - 0 -0 +3 C- B+ C -3 A+ F D+
 Wed, Nov 19 190 South Alabama L 65 - 71 61% +6  1 - 1 -11 -5 C D- D+ -6 D+ C+ D
 Mon, Nov 24 151 @Arkansas St. L 63 - 74 29% -7  1 - 2 -7 -12 F D+ F +5 C A+ B+
 Wed, Nov 26 134 North Dakota St. L 43 - 56 36% -10  1 - 3 -11 -24 F F F +11 C+ A+ C
 Mon, Dec 1 328 North Alabama L 66 - 73 85% +2  1 - 4 -20 -11 F B C -10 C D+ D-
 Sat, Dec 13 269 @Georgia St. L 73 - 77 53% -5  1 - 5 -7 +6 D B A+ -13 C- D+ F
 Wed, Dec 17 258 Eastern Kentucky L 59 - 62 72% -5  1 - 6 -11 -15 F F D +3 B+ D+ A+
 Sat, Dec 20 129 @East Tennessee St. W 81 - 75 25% +1  2 - 6 +11 +22 A+ B- C -10 F B B-
 Mon, Dec 29 166 Western Kentucky W 78 - 67 55% +12  3 - 6 1 - 0 +7 +6 A+ F+ F +2 A- B+ C+
 Fri, Jan 2 297 @Delaware W 67 - 64 59% +4  4 - 6 2 - 0 -2 +4 D+ C+ F+ -5 D A F
 Sun, Jan 4 95 @Liberty L 69 - 78 16% -4  4 - 7 2 - 1 -0 +5 D- B A- -6 A D- D+
 Wed, Jan 7 181 Florida International W 71 - 64 59% +1  5 - 7 3 - 1 +3 +2 A- B F +1 C A+ B
 Sat, Jan 10 156 @Kennesaw St. L 82 - 88 30% -5  5 - 8 3 - 2 -3 +7 A C- D+ -9 C F D
 Wed, Jan 14 117 Sam Houston St. L 62 - 77 41% -7  5 - 9 3 - 3 -15 -3 D D+ B+ -14 F C- B
 Sat, Jan 17 221 Louisiana Tech W 64 - 60 66% +10  6 - 9 4 - 3 -3 +4 C+ C- D -5 C F+ C
 Fri, Jan 23 144 Middle Tennessee W 75 - 58 49% +9  7 - 9 5 - 3 +15 +14 A+ F+ C+ +4 A C D
 Wed, Jan 28 181 @Florida International L 72 - 76 36%
 Sat, Jan 31 177 @Missouri St. L 65 - 69 35%
 Thu, Feb 5 166 @Western Kentucky L 69 - 74 33%
 Sat, Feb 7 156 Kennesaw St. W 76 - 75 52%
 Wed, Feb 11 256 UTEP W 69 - 63 71%
 Sat, Feb 14 141 New Mexico St. L 69 - 70 48%
 Wed, Feb 18 221 @Louisiana Tech L 62 - 64 44%
 Sat, Feb 21 117 @Sam Houston St. L 68 - 76 22%
 Thu, Feb 26 297 Delaware W 69 - 61 78%
 Sat, Feb 28 95 Liberty L 66 - 71 33%
 Thu, Mar 5 141 @New Mexico St. L 67 - 73 27%
 Sat, Mar 7 256 @UTEP L 66 - 67 50%
Totals 12 - 16 10 - 10 -2 -2 C C- C- -1 C C+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.7 1st
2nd 0.2 1.9 3.8 2.6 0.8 0.1 0.0 9.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 2.4 6.2 3.5 0.5 0.0 0.0 12.8 3rd
4th 0.0 1.5 7.6 4.8 0.5 0.0 14.4 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 6.4 6.7 0.8 0.0 14.3 5th
6th 0.1 3.0 8.1 1.7 0.0 13.0 6th
7th 1.0 6.9 3.5 0.1 11.5 7th
8th 0.2 3.9 5.2 0.4 9.6 8th
9th 0.1 1.4 4.7 1.2 0.0 7.4 9th
10th 0.5 2.4 1.6 0.1 4.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.1 2.1 11th
12th 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 12th
Total 0.3 1.5 5.1 11.4 16.7 19.9 18.8 13.8 7.8 3.4 1.1 0.2 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 83.3% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 59.2% 0.1    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 20.8% 0.2    0.1 0.2 0.0
14-6 6.8% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.7% 0.7 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.2% 18.4% 18.4% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 1.1% 10.9% 10.9% 13.5 0.1 0.1 1.0
14-6 3.4% 10.3% 10.3% 13.8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 3.0
13-7 7.8% 7.4% 7.4% 14.3 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 7.3
12-8 13.8% 6.5% 6.5% 14.8 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.0 12.9
11-9 18.8% 4.2% 4.2% 15.1 0.1 0.6 0.1 18.0
10-10 19.9% 2.4% 2.4% 15.6 0.2 0.3 19.5
9-11 16.7% 1.3% 1.3% 15.9 0.0 0.2 16.5
8-12 11.4% 1.1% 1.1% 16.0 0.1 11.3
7-13 5.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.1
6-14 1.5% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.5
5-15 0.3% 0.3
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 14.8 96.4 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%