Jacksonville St.
Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.1#252
Expected Predictive Rating-12.8#333
Pace63.1#331
Improvement-2.5#326

Offense
Total Offense-4.8#299
First Shot-7.6#354
After Offensive Rebound+2.7#37
Layup/Dunks-0.6#205
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#354
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.9#203
Freethrows-2.2#307
Improvement-0.3#210

Defense
Total Defense-0.3#173
First Shot-3.1#281
After Offensive Rebounds+2.8#21
Layups/Dunks-0.4#188
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#173
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.4#168
Freethrows-3.5#343
Improvement-2.2#327
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 1.5% 1.9% 0.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 15.0 15.5
.500 or above 7.4% 10.4% 2.7%
.500 or above in Conference 20.8% 24.6% 14.8%
Conference Champion 1.2% 1.5% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 25.3% 21.6% 31.2%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round1.3% 1.7% 0.6%
Second Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Kentucky (Home) - 61.7% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 30 - 4
Quad 33 - 103 - 14
Quad 46 - 69 - 20


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 14 243 Coastal Carolina W 74-67 60%     1 - 0 -0.7 +2.8 -3.2
  Wed, Nov 19 176 South Alabama L 65-71 46%     1 - 1 -10.1 -6.2 -4.2
  Mon, Nov 24 153 @Arkansas St. L 63-74 21%     1 - 2 -7.6 -11.2 +4.1
  Wed, Nov 26 144 North Dakota St. L 43-56 28%     1 - 3 -12.1 -23.5 +9.7
  Mon, Dec 1 196 North Alabama L 66-73 51%     1 - 4 -12.4 -5.3 -7.6
  Sat, Dec 13 334 @Georgia St. L 73-77 60%     1 - 5 -11.6 +3.2 -15.1
  Wed, Dec 17 257 Eastern Kentucky W 71-68 62%    
  Sat, Dec 20 123 @East Tennessee St. L 63-74 15%    
  Mon, Dec 29 145 Western Kentucky L 70-73 39%    
  Fri, Jan 2 282 @Delaware L 65-67 45%    
  Sun, Jan 4 108 @Liberty L 61-73 13%    
  Wed, Jan 7 186 Florida International L 70-71 48%    
  Sat, Jan 10 160 @Kennesaw St. L 71-79 23%    
  Wed, Jan 14 126 Sam Houston St. L 69-74 34%    
  Sat, Jan 17 179 Louisiana Tech L 61-62 48%    
  Sat, Jan 24 154 Middle Tennessee L 68-70 41%    
  Wed, Jan 28 186 @Florida International L 67-73 28%    
  Sat, Jan 31 250 @Missouri St. L 63-66 39%    
  Thu, Feb 5 145 @Western Kentucky L 67-76 21%    
  Sat, Feb 7 160 Kennesaw St. L 74-76 43%    
  Wed, Feb 11 218 UTEP W 64-63 54%    
  Sat, Feb 14 132 New Mexico St. L 63-67 37%    
  Wed, Feb 18 179 @Louisiana Tech L 58-65 27%    
  Sat, Feb 21 126 @Sam Houston St. L 66-77 18%    
  Thu, Feb 26 282 Delaware W 68-64 65%    
  Sat, Feb 28 108 Liberty L 64-70 30%    
  Thu, Mar 5 132 @New Mexico St. L 60-70 19%    
  Sat, Mar 7 218 @UTEP L 61-66 34%    
Projected Record 9 - 19 7 - 13




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference USA Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.2 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 1.8 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.9 0.2 0.1 2.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.3 1.6 1.5 0.4 0.1 3.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.3 1.8 2.1 0.6 0.1 4.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.2 1.8 3.1 1.1 0.1 6.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.2 1.8 4.0 1.9 0.2 8.1 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.9 4.5 2.9 0.3 0.0 9.9 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 2.3 5.3 3.9 0.7 0.0 12.7 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.8 5.7 4.4 1.1 0.0 14.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.3 1.6 4.0 5.8 3.8 1.1 0.1 16.7 11th
12th 0.3 1.3 3.2 4.6 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.0 17.1 12th
Total 0.3 1.4 3.5 6.2 9.2 11.5 12.7 12.9 11.6 9.8 7.4 5.4 3.6 2.2 1.2 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Conference USA Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3 93.3% 0.1    0.1 0.0
16-4 77.4% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.0
15-5 59.9% 0.4    0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
14-6 26.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 5.7% 0.1    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.2% 1.2 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0
18-2 0.0% 0.0 0.0
17-3 0.1% 36.7% 36.7% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
16-4 0.3% 15.5% 15.5% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 0.6% 17.6% 17.6% 13.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
14-6 1.2% 12.5% 12.5% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.1
13-7 2.2% 8.3% 8.3% 14.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 2.0
12-8 3.6% 6.8% 6.8% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 3.4
11-9 5.4% 3.7% 3.7% 15.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 5.2
10-10 7.4% 2.1% 2.1% 15.8 0.0 0.1 7.3
9-11 9.8% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.1 9.7
8-12 11.6% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 11.5
7-13 12.9% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.8
6-14 12.7% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.0 12.7
5-15 11.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 11.4
4-16 9.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 9.2
3-17 6.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.2
2-18 3.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.5
1-19 1.4% 1.4
0-20 0.3% 0.3
Total 100% 1.5% 1.5% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.7 98.5 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%