Atlantic 10
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
26 Saint Louis 89.0%   9   19 - 1 8 - 0 +15.3      +7.3 46 +8.1 18 76.4 25 +18.7 17 +20.6 1
51 Virginia Commonwealth 27.7%   15 - 6 6 - 2 +10.5      +7.4 44 +3.1 89 71.4 113 +10.2 58 +11.2 3
65 George Washington 10.4%   12 - 8 4 - 4 +8.6      +6.9 49 +1.7 117 73.4 62 +3.6 110 +3.2 6
85 Dayton 6.0%   14 - 7 5 - 3 +6.7      +1.0 137 +5.7 45 68.9 178 +5.9 88 +3.1 7
86 George Mason 9.2%   18 - 2 7 - 1 +6.6      +4.1 81 +2.5 102 63.1 326 +12.8 43 +13.1 2
109 Rhode Island 1.8%   13 - 8 4 - 4 +3.7      +0.3 152 +3.4 80 66.0 260 +3.9 105 +3.8 5
117 Richmond 1.1%   12 - 9 3 - 6 +2.8      +2.4 111 +0.5 150 68.5 193 +1.5 142 0.0 11
122 Duquesne 0.6%   9 - 10 3 - 5 +2.5      +1.5 127 +0.9 134 75.3 36 -1.2 187 +0.3 10
136 Davidson 0.7%   11 - 8 4 - 4 +1.6      -0.3 173 +1.9 112 62.6 337 +3.8 106 +3.0 8
139 Saint Joseph's 0.8%   11 - 8 5 - 3 +1.3      -1.8 215 +3.1 87 69.5 165 +2.6 121 +7.3 4
141 St. Bonaventure 0.4%   12 - 8 2 - 6 +1.2      +2.9 99 -1.6 226 66.1 257 +2.2 130 -5.4 13
195 Fordham 0.1%   8 - 10 2 - 6 -2.1      -3.1 258 +1.0 133 62.7 334 -6.2 265 -3.3 12
202 La Salle 0.1%   6 - 14 3 - 5 -2.7      -1.9 218 -0.8 198 64.0 307 -2.5 212 +2.2 9
280 Loyola Chicago 0.0%   5 - 17 1 - 8 -7.0      -2.6 240 -4.4 301 66.4 250 -9.7 321 -8.1 14


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Tue, Jan 27 65 George Washington 76 26 Saint Louis 79   
Tue, Jan 27 85 Dayton 76 109 Rhode Island 81   
Tue, Jan 27 117 Richmond 69 51 Virginia Commonwealth 77   
Tue, Jan 27 280 Loyola Chicago 64 139 Saint Joseph's 85   
Wed, Jan 28 136 Davidson 52 86 George Mason 60   
Wed, Jan 28 195 Fordham 64 202 La Salle 58   
Wed, Jan 28 122 Duquesne 79 141 St. Bonaventure 87   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Fri, Jan 30 85 Dayton 69 26 Saint Louis 81 86%   
Fri, Jan 30 280 Loyola Chicago 67 51 Virginia Commonwealth 87 96%   
Sat, Jan 31 136 Davidson 68 117 Richmond 72 66%   
Sat, Jan 31 86 George Mason 73 141 St. Bonaventure 71 59%   
Sat, Jan 31 202 La Salle 68 139 Saint Joseph's 69 54%   
Sat, Jan 31 195 Fordham 66 65 George Washington 80 89%   
Sun, Feb 1 109 Rhode Island 74 122 Duquesne 75 57%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th 14th
Saint Louis 1.0 95.9 3.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 2.5 6.7 55.7 24.5 8.3 2.9 1.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
George Washington 4.2 0.1 13.5 24.4 27.9 15.8 8.6 4.9 2.8 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Dayton 5.8 0.2 4.5 9.1 14.5 18.7 18.4 14.4 10.1 5.7 2.8 1.0 0.4 0.0
George Mason 3.0 4.8 37.1 30.8 14.2 7.0 3.5 1.6 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Rhode Island 6.3 0.0 1.5 6.2 13.8 17.8 17.0 15.3 11.6 7.9 4.5 2.6 1.3 0.4 0.0
Richmond 8.7 0.1 0.7 2.4 5.8 9.0 10.9 15.3 17.8 16.5 11.6 7.0 2.9 0.1
Duquesne 8.9 0.1 0.7 2.4 4.8 7.4 10.6 13.8 17.5 16.8 12.8 9.1 4.0 0.1
Davidson 7.0 0.0 0.7 3.1 8.5 14.0 16.3 16.5 15.6 11.4 7.4 3.9 2.0 0.6 0.0
Saint Joseph's 5.6 0.1 4.8 11.3 16.9 19.0 17.0 12.9 9.3 4.8 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1
St. Bonaventure 10.4 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.5 3.0 4.8 7.8 12.4 16.3 18.2 18.3 15.6 1.1
Fordham 11.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.1 3.9 7.3 12.5 17.7 22.6 28.6 3.8
La Salle 10.5 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.3 4.1 7.0 11.6 16.7 19.9 21.0 14.7 0.9
Loyola Chicago 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.0 3.2 13.0 82.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Saint Louis 17 - 1 28 - 2 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 4.2 12.4 26.8 33.7 21.7
Virginia Commonwealth 13 - 5 22 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.1 8.9 18.7 26.3 25.1 14.2 2.9
George Washington 11 - 7 19 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.9 3.5 9.0 18.1 25.8 24.6 14.2 3.8
Dayton 10 - 8 19 - 12 0.2 1.4 6.4 13.9 23.1 24.0 17.6 9.4 3.3 0.7 0.1
George Mason 12 - 6 23 - 7 0.1 0.7 2.8 8.2 15.6 22.1 22.7 16.4 8.6 2.4 0.4
Rhode Island 9 - 9 18 - 13 0.1 0.8 3.3 9.3 16.9 22.7 21.8 15.8 7.2 1.9 0.3
Richmond 8 - 10 17 - 13 0.3 2.3 7.8 16.4 22.6 23.4 16.2 8.3 2.4 0.4
Duquesne 7 - 11 13 - 16 0.5 2.9 9.7 18.0 23.6 22.0 14.7 6.4 1.9 0.3 0.0
Davidson 9 - 9 16 - 13 0.1 1.4 5.5 13.6 22.0 23.6 19.5 9.9 3.5 0.8 0.1
Saint Joseph's 10 - 8 16 - 13 0.1 1.5 5.2 12.9 20.5 23.6 19.5 10.8 4.5 1.3 0.1
St. Bonaventure 6 - 12 16 - 14 0.7 4.4 11.2 18.8 23.8 19.9 13.3 5.8 1.7 0.4 0.0
Fordham 5 - 13 11 - 17 1.7 8.6 18.5 25.7 23.2 13.8 6.1 1.9 0.4 0.1 0.0
La Salle 6 - 12 9 - 21 2.9 11.9 21.2 25.3 20.6 11.8 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0
Loyola Chicago 2 - 16 6 - 25 20.9 36.4 27.3 11.7 3.1 0.6 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Saint Louis 95.9% 88.8 6.6 0.5 0.0
Virginia Commonwealth 6.7% 2.2 4.0 0.5 0.0
George Washington 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Dayton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
George Mason 4.8% 1.6 2.7 0.5 0.0
Rhode Island 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Richmond
Duquesne
Davidson 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Saint Joseph's 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
St. Bonaventure
Fordham
La Salle
Loyola Chicago


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Saint Louis 89.0% 52.9% 36.1% 9   0.1 0.4 1.5 4.7 6.3 9.1 12.5 13.9 16.8 15.4 8.4 0.0 11.0 76.7%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.7% 19.1% 8.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 1.0 4.0 20.2 1.5 72.3 10.5%
George Washington 10.4% 10.2% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 6.1 3.6 0.2 0.0 89.6 0.3%
Dayton 6.0% 5.3% 0.7% 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.9 1.6 0.2 94.0 0.8%
George Mason 9.2% 7.1% 2.2% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.7 6.9 1.3 0.0 90.8 2.3%
Rhode Island 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 98.2 0.0%
Richmond 1.1% 1.1% 0.0% 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 98.9 0.0%
Duquesne 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 99.5 0.0%
Davidson 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.3 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.2 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 99.6 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 99.9 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.5 54.8 42.8 2.5 0.0
1st Round 100.0% 1.4 0.0 60.9 37.9 1.2
2nd Round 60.0% 0.7 40.0 54.7 5.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 19.4% 0.2 80.6 19.1 0.4 0.0
Elite Eight 6.6% 0.1 93.4 6.6 0.0
Final Four 2.2% 0.0 97.8 2.2
Final Game 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Champion 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Saint Louis 89.0% 6.3% 86.5% 52.3% 17.3% 6.1% 2.1% 0.7% 0.2%
Virginia Commonwealth 27.7% 6.9% 24.3% 7.5% 1.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
George Washington 10.4% 0.2% 10.3% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Dayton 6.0% 0.6% 5.6% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
George Mason 9.2% 1.9% 8.2% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Rhode Island 1.8% 0.0% 1.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Richmond 1.1% 0.0% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Duquesne 0.6% 0.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Davidson 0.7% 0.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Saint Joseph's 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
St. Bonaventure 0.4% 0.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Fordham 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
La Salle 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Loyola Chicago 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%