Atlantic Sun
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
174 Austin Peay 25.5%   15   13 - 6 9 - 1 -1.1      -2.4 236 +1.3 129 71.8 96 +2.1 127 +6.2 1
179 Lipscomb 23.7%   13 - 8 8 - 2 -1.2      -0.6 183 -0.6 189 72.8 74 +0.6 151 -0.2 2
208 Queens 15.2%   11 - 11 7 - 3 -3.0      +2.8 100 -5.8 333 71.0 122 -3.3 217 -2.7 4
219 Central Arkansas 14.9%   10 - 10 7 - 2 -3.3      -1.5 206 -1.8 240 69.6 160 -3.6 220 -0.3 3
224 Florida Gulf Coast 10.4%   8 - 13 4 - 6 -3.5      -0.5 181 -3.0 265 69.0 171 -6.3 265 -7.4 5
267 Eastern Kentucky 3.8%   5 - 16 3 - 7 -5.9      +0.2 155 -6.2 341 68.5 188 -9.5 320 -10.7 10
295 Jacksonville 2.7%   7 - 14 4 - 6 -7.7      -5.6 317 -2.2 249 61.5 346 -7.3 286 -8.0 6
303 Bellarmine 2.3%   7 - 13 4 - 6 -8.2      +1.7 126 -9.9 364 64.5 293 -7.6 290 -8.6 8
324 West Georgia 0.0%   8 - 12 4 - 6 -10.1      -4.5 286 -5.7 327 70.2 142 -7.4 288 -8.7 9
328 North Alabama 0.5%   5 - 13 2 - 7 -10.3      -4.6 294 -5.7 328 65.9 257 -9.6 321 -14.7 12
330 Stetson 0.8%   6 - 15 4 - 6 -10.4      -5.4 310 -5.1 319 68.8 178 -9.1 311 -8.0 7
350 North Florida 0.2%   3 - 18 3 - 7 -12.6      +0.1 160 -12.7 365 76.4 24 -14.8 351 -11.6 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Jan 31 303 Bellarmine 78 208 Queens 75   
Sat, Jan 31 179 Lipscomb 100 350 North Florida 94   
Sat, Jan 31 328 North Alabama 68 330 Stetson 66   
Sat, Jan 31 224 Florida Gulf Coast 68 295 Jacksonville 49   
Sat, Jan 31 174 Austin Peay 81 324 West Georgia 78   
Sat, Jan 31 219 Central Arkansas 90 267 Eastern Kentucky 81   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Wed, Feb 4 174 Austin Peay 78 179 Lipscomb 74 62%   
Wed, Feb 4 219 Central Arkansas 79 328 North Alabama 69 83%   
Thu, Feb 5 267 Eastern Kentucky 79 224 Florida Gulf Coast 78 52%   
Thu, Feb 5 295 Jacksonville 70 208 Queens 77 77%   
Thu, Feb 5 303 Bellarmine 80 330 Stetson 75 69%   
Thu, Feb 5 350 North Florida 83 324 West Georgia 89 70%   
Sat, Feb 7 219 Central Arkansas 74 179 Lipscomb 79 69%   
Sat, Feb 7 303 Bellarmine 78 224 Florida Gulf Coast 79 57%   
Sat, Feb 7 295 Jacksonville 69 324 West Georgia 70 52%   
Sat, Feb 7 267 Eastern Kentucky 81 330 Stetson 73 76%   
Sat, Feb 7 174 Austin Peay 79 328 North Alabama 67 87%   
Sat, Feb 7 350 North Florida 84 208 Queens 97 88%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Austin Peay 1.4 73.2 17.4 6.8 2.5 0.1 0.0
Lipscomb 2.2 27.6 37.5 22.1 11.3 1.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Queens 2.9 10.7 25.3 30.2 28.3 4.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 0.0
Central Arkansas 2.8 15.2 27.9 28.7 22.5 4.7 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida Gulf Coast 5.3 0.0 0.8 5.1 18.1 46.0 15.7 7.3 3.9 1.8 0.9 0.4 0.1
Eastern Kentucky 7.6 0.0 0.3 2.0 11.1 19.0 18.5 16.5 13.9 10.5 5.7 2.4
Jacksonville 6.9 0.1 0.8 4.5 18.3 25.9 18.9 13.1 8.8 5.8 3.1 0.9
Bellarmine 7.7 0.1 0.3 2.2 10.3 17.5 18.3 18.1 14.4 11.4 5.5 1.9
West Georgia 7.8 0.0 0.3 1.7 7.7 17.7 18.6 18.8 15.2 10.9 6.2 2.9
North Alabama 10.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 3.3 6.0 8.6 10.6 16.0 25.5 29.0
Stetson 8.0 0.0 0.2 1.4 8.9 15.0 15.9 16.7 16.4 14.9 8.0 2.7
North Florida 10.3 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.6 4.5 7.1 10.1 16.4 28.7 29.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
Austin Peay 15 - 3 19 - 8 0.0 0.3 1.8 6.0 13.8 25.3 27.7 18.9 6.3
Lipscomb 13 - 5 18 - 11 0.0 0.6 2.7 9.6 19.2 27.4 24.1 13.3 3.1
Queens 12 - 6 16 - 14 0.0 0.4 2.9 9.0 19.6 28.0 24.1 13.2 2.9
Central Arkansas 12 - 6 15 - 14 0.0 0.5 2.2 8.1 17.3 24.0 24.8 16.0 5.9 1.2
Florida Gulf Coast 9 - 9 13 - 16 0.0 0.4 1.7 6.6 15.5 25.4 27.3 17.8 5.4
Eastern Kentucky 7 - 11 9 - 20 0.4 2.9 9.1 19.5 25.8 22.9 13.8 5.0 0.8
Jacksonville 8 - 10 11 - 18 0.5 4.3 12.5 22.8 25.9 20.7 9.9 3.1 0.4
Bellarmine 7 - 11 10 - 18 2.0 10.0 20.6 27.2 21.7 12.5 4.9 1.0 0.1
West Georgia 7 - 11 11 - 17 2.0 9.7 22.8 28.0 21.6 11.5 3.5 0.8 0.1
North Alabama 5 - 13 8 - 19 2.8 11.9 21.4 25.1 20.8 12.3 4.5 1.2 0.1 0.0
Stetson 7 - 11 9 - 20 2.9 13.3 24.1 26.9 19.2 9.8 3.2 0.5 0.0
North Florida 5 - 13 5 - 24 11.2 26.2 28.4 20.1 10.0 3.3 0.7 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Austin Peay 73.2% 54.4 15.2 3.3 0.3
Lipscomb 27.6% 13.4 10.9 3.0 0.3
Queens 10.7% 3.5 4.9 2.0 0.3
Central Arkansas 15.2% 6.1 6.4 2.4 0.3
Florida Gulf Coast 0.0% 0.0 0.0
Eastern Kentucky
Jacksonville
Bellarmine
West Georgia
North Alabama
Stetson
North Florida


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Austin Peay 25.5% 25.5% 0.0% 15   0.3 3.1 10.1 10.6 1.4 74.5 0.0%
Lipscomb 23.7% 23.7% 0.0% 0.1 2.0 8.4 11.2 1.9 76.3 0.0%
Queens 15.2% 15.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.7 6.7 6.6 84.8 0.0%
Central Arkansas 14.9% 14.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.8 7.5 5.5 85.1 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.4% 10.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.6 3.0 6.7 89.6 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.8% 3.8% 0.0% 0.1 3.7 96.2 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 2.6 97.3 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 2.2 97.7 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
North Alabama 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.5 99.5 0.0%
Stetson 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.8 99.2 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.2 99.8 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 92.3% 0.9 7.7 92.3
2nd Round 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Sweet Sixteen 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Austin Peay 25.5% 0.1% 25.4% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Lipscomb 23.7% 0.2% 23.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Queens 15.2% 2.1% 14.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Central Arkansas 14.9% 1.4% 14.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida Gulf Coast 10.4% 3.7% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Eastern Kentucky 3.8% 3.5% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville 2.7% 2.4% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Bellarmine 2.3% 2.0% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
West Georgia 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Alabama 0.5% 0.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stetson 0.8% 0.8% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
North Florida 0.2% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%