Preseason Rankings
Colonial Athletic
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
118 UNC Wilmington 21.0%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 12 - 6 +2.7      +2.3 106 +0.4 151 64.5 282 0.0 1 0.0 1
123 College of Charleston 19.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 12 - 6 +2.3      +2.1 111 +0.2 157 74.2 48 0.0 1 0.0 1
131 Towson 18.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 10 12 - 6 +1.9      +0.7 146 +1.2 129 60.9 348 0.0 1 0.0 1
178 Hofstra 8.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 8 -1.4      -3.4 274 +2.0 113 60.8 350 0.0 1 0.0 1
203 Campbell 6.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 9 - 9 -2.4      -1.9 226 -0.6 181 65.2 262 0.0 1 0.0 1
211 Monmouth 5.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 15 8 - 9 -3.0      -1.1 205 -1.9 235 67.8 186 0.0 1 0.0 1
226 Northeastern 4.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 15 8 - 9 -3.6      -2.2 238 -1.3 210 68.5 169 0.0 1 0.0 1
227 Drexel 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 15 - 14 8 - 10 -3.6      -3.8 285 +0.2 158 59.9 356 0.0 1 0.0 1
228 Elon 4.4%   0 - 0 0 - 0 13 - 16 8 - 10 -3.7      -1.3 213 -2.4 256 63.5 301 0.0 1 0.0 1
229 William & Mary 4.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 12 - 16 9 - 9 -3.7      -0.1 165 -3.6 291 77.4 13 0.0 1 0.0 1
236 Hampton 3.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 8 - 10 -4.2      -2.9 259 -1.3 207 64.5 283 0.0 1 0.0 1
288 Stony Brook 1.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 10 - 18 6 - 12 -7.0      -2.8 254 -4.2 305 62.5 327 0.0 1 0.0 1
351 N.C. A&T 0.1%   0 - 0 0 - 0 6 - 21 4 - 14 -12.3      -6.7 348 -5.6 337 72.4 66 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 3.4 29.6 19.0 13.8 10.1 7.5 5.9 4.3 3.4 2.6 1.7 1.1 0.6 0.2
College of Charleston 3.7 26.1 18.0 13.7 10.9 8.3 6.3 5.3 3.8 2.8 2.1 1.5 0.8 0.3
Towson 3.8 26.4 18.1 13.1 10.1 8.2 6.3 5.3 4.0 3.3 2.3 1.6 1.0 0.3
Hofstra 5.8 9.5 10.4 10.4 10.5 10.1 9.5 8.5 7.8 6.8 6.2 5.1 3.5 1.6
Campbell 6.3 6.9 8.3 9.5 9.9 10.0 9.7 9.2 8.4 8.3 7.2 5.9 4.5 2.2
Monmouth 7.2 3.1 5.3 7.0 8.2 9.1 9.6 9.9 9.7 9.8 9.4 8.6 7.1 3.1
Northeastern 7.1 4.0 6.2 7.4 8.5 8.9 8.9 9.2 9.4 9.1 8.9 8.4 6.9 4.1
Drexel 7.0 4.3 6.6 7.3 8.3 9.0 9.1 9.3 9.1 9.3 8.9 8.7 7.0 3.2
Elon 7.1 4.8 5.9 7.1 7.8 8.5 9.1 9.5 9.8 9.6 9.2 8.4 6.4 3.8
William & Mary 6.8 4.9 7.0 7.6 8.8 9.5 9.5 9.0 9.4 8.8 8.6 7.7 5.8 3.4
Hampton 7.3 4.0 5.3 6.5 7.7 8.5 8.9 9.8 10.1 9.8 9.9 8.7 6.9 3.9
Stony Brook 9.0 1.4 2.3 3.4 4.2 5.0 6.0 7.2 8.5 10.2 11.1 13.7 16.2 10.8
N.C. A&T 11.5 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.7 1.1 1.7 2.4 3.6 4.9 7.5 12.1 20.7 44.6




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.9 1.7 3.0 4.7 6.2 8.5 10.3 12.4 13.1 12.8 11.1 8.1 4.7 1.7
College of Charleston 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.3 2.2 3.4 5.1 7.5 9.1 10.9 12.4 12.9 12.3 9.9 7.1 3.8 1.2
Towson 12 - 6 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.3 3.8 5.7 7.2 9.1 10.5 11.8 12.1 11.5 9.9 7.6 4.3 1.4
Hofstra 10 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.9 1.6 3.0 4.6 6.4 8.3 9.8 11.2 11.7 11.2 9.9 8.1 5.7 4.0 2.4 0.9 0.2
Campbell 9 - 9 0.0 0.3 1.0 2.1 3.5 5.6 7.7 9.6 10.9 11.6 11.7 10.5 8.9 6.8 4.8 2.9 1.3 0.6 0.1
Monmouth 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.4 8.0 10.1 11.2 11.9 12.4 10.9 8.8 6.7 4.4 2.7 1.3 0.4 0.1
Northeastern 8 - 10 0.2 0.8 1.9 3.5 5.6 7.7 9.2 10.7 11.7 11.1 10.6 8.8 7.2 5.3 3.1 1.7 0.6 0.1
Drexel 8 - 10 0.1 0.7 1.6 3.5 5.3 7.8 9.8 10.5 11.4 11.5 10.3 8.8 7.2 5.2 3.4 1.8 0.8 0.2 0.1
Elon 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.7 3.4 5.7 7.8 9.3 11.0 12.0 11.5 10.5 8.6 6.7 4.9 3.2 1.7 0.8 0.3 0.1
William & Mary 9 - 9 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 4.8 7.1 8.9 10.4 11.7 11.5 10.8 9.4 7.6 5.5 3.5 2.1 1.1 0.4 0.0
Hampton 8 - 10 0.1 0.8 1.8 3.5 5.8 8.3 10.1 11.3 12.5 11.4 10.2 8.6 6.4 4.2 2.6 1.5 0.7 0.2 0.0
Stony Brook 6 - 12 0.9 2.9 6.1 8.6 11.0 11.7 12.2 11.5 9.8 8.1 5.9 4.6 3.1 1.7 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 8.2 13.8 16.7 15.7 13.8 10.5 7.7 5.2 3.7 2.2 1.2 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 29.6% 20.3 7.1 1.9 0.3 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 26.1% 17.6 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Towson 26.4% 17.7 6.6 1.7 0.3 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 9.5% 5.7 2.7 0.9 0.1 0.0 0.0
Campbell 6.9% 3.9 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Monmouth 3.1% 1.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Northeastern 4.0% 2.0 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0
Drexel 4.3% 2.2 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Elon 4.8% 2.6 1.6 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0
William & Mary 4.9% 2.7 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 4.0% 2.2 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 1.4% 0.7 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 21.0% 21.0% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 2.8 6.4 5.7 3.5 1.5 0.5 79.0 0.1%
College of Charleston 19.1% 19.0% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.5 5.6 5.4 3.4 1.4 0.3 80.9 0.1%
Towson 18.4% 18.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.4 5.5 5.3 3.1 1.4 0.4 81.6 0.0%
Hofstra 8.1% 8.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.7 2.3 1.9 1.1 0.6 91.9 0.0%
Campbell 6.0% 6.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.5 1.6 1.1 0.6 94.0 0.0%
Monmouth 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.5 95.0 0.0%
Northeastern 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.1 0.9 0.4 95.8 0.0%
Drexel 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 0.9 1.2 1.0 0.7 95.6 0.0%
Elon 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.2 1.1 1.0 0.4 95.6 0.0%
William & Mary 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.1 1.1 1.0 0.7 95.5 0.0%
Hampton 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.1 0.9 0.5 96.3 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.4 0.2 98.7 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 21.0% 0.3% 21.1% 3.0% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 19.1% 0.2% 19.1% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 18.4% 0.2% 18.4% 2.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 8.1% 0.4% 8.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 6.0% 0.3% 6.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 5.0% 0.3% 5.0% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 4.2% 0.3% 4.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 4.4% 0.3% 4.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 4.4% 0.3% 4.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 4.5% 0.4% 4.4% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 3.7% 0.2% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 1.3% 0.1% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 98.9% 1.0 1.1 97.6 1.3
2nd Round 10.3% 0.1 89.7 10.3 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 1.7% 0.0 98.3 1.7
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0