Colonial Athletic
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
109 UNC Wilmington 22.6%   13   9 - 1 0 - 0 22 - 7 12 - 6 +3.7      +3.7 89 +0.1 165 62.4 341 +7.9 77 0.0 1
113 Hofstra 20.3%   6 - 4 0 - 0 19 - 10 12 - 6 +3.3      +1.4 127 +1.9 107 65.5 285 +5.0 102 0.0 1
121 William & Mary 19.2%   6 - 3 0 - 0 19 - 9 12 - 6 +3.0      +1.3 131 +1.7 116 83.3 6 +8.5 71 0.0 1
139 Towson 12.8%   5 - 4 0 - 0 17 - 12 11 - 7 +1.5      +0.9 141 +0.6 145 60.2 362 +4.3 106 0.0 1
170 College of Charleston 6.2%   4 - 6 0 - 0 15 - 15 10 - 8 -0.8      +0.2 161 -1.0 204 66.7 255 -2.2 202 0.0 1
191 Elon 4.8%   5 - 4 0 - 0 14 - 15 9 - 9 -1.8      +3.1 103 -4.9 330 69.5 186 -1.1 187 0.0 1
196 Stony Brook 3.6%   6 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 13 9 - 9 -2.4      -1.0 195 -1.4 223 64.2 314 +3.5 120 0.0 1
208 Northeastern 2.8%   4 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 9 -3.2      -3.8 269 +0.6 147 71.7 120 -3.2 220 0.0 1
220 Monmouth 2.1%   4 - 6 0 - 0 13 - 17 7 - 10 -3.6      -1.5 207 -2.1 245 67.8 224 -5.0 245 0.0 1
229 Campbell 2.3%   3 - 5 0 - 0 12 - 17 8 - 10 -3.9      -2.6 236 -1.3 216 74.3 57 -0.9 184 0.0 1
230 Hampton 2.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 17 7 - 11 -4.0      -3.0 249 -0.9 200 64.5 307 -7.8 283 0.0 1
270 Drexel 1.0%   3 - 6 0 - 0 12 - 18 6 - 12 -5.8      -3.6 262 -2.2 248 63.3 328 -9.0 302 0.0 1
310 N.C. A&T 0.3%   4 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 18 4 - 14 -8.7      -5.3 311 -3.4 286 72.8 88 -6.4 258 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Fri, Dec 12 310 N.C. A&T 82 345 Maryland Eastern Shore 79   
Sat, Dec 13 113 Hofstra 70 68 Syracuse 69   
Sat, Dec 13 109 UNC Wilmington 73 213 Valparaiso 70   
Sat, Dec 13 230 Hampton 57 300 Howard 61   
Sat, Dec 13 323 Central Michigan 55 196 Stony Brook 78   
Sat, Dec 13 191 Elon 85 327 Northern Illinois 79   
Sun, Dec 14 194 Charlotte 67 170 College of Charleston 74   
Sun, Dec 14 296 Fairfield 73 220 Monmouth 65   
Sun, Dec 14 306 Ball St. 64 229 Campbell 69   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Tue, Dec 16 17 Kansas 75 139 Towson 57 95%   
Tue, Dec 16 270 Drexel 71 300 Howard 67 68%   
Tue, Dec 16 310 N.C. A&T 73 284 UNC Greensboro 78 69%   
Wed, Dec 17 220 Monmouth 76 169 Quinnipiac 75 51%   
Wed, Dec 17 191 Elon 78 102 Richmond 81 63%   
Wed, Dec 17 196 Stony Brook 77 328 Albany 66 84%   
Wed, Dec 17 229 Campbell 65 5 Gonzaga 94 99%   
Wed, Dec 17 170 College of Charleston 79 360 The Citadel 63 93%   
Thu, Dec 18 254 Radford 81 121 William & Mary 92 85%   
Thu, Dec 18 230 Hampton 71 315 Jackson St. 65 69%   
Fri, Dec 19 285 Grambling St. 65 230 Hampton 67 60%   
Fri, Dec 19 270 Drexel 71 299 Mount St. Mary's 66 67%   
Sat, Dec 20 191 Elon 73 63 Virginia Tech 87 89%   
Sat, Dec 20 208 Northeastern 65 68 Syracuse 79 90%   
Sat, Dec 20 300 Howard 64 109 UNC Wilmington 78 90%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th 13th
UNC Wilmington 3.0 32.1 21.2 15.3 11.0 7.2 4.9 3.2 2.2 1.4 0.7 0.4 0.3 0.1
Hofstra 3.2 28.5 21.6 15.7 11.3 8.0 5.3 3.6 2.4 1.6 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.1
William & Mary 3.2 28.7 20.3 15.4 11.3 8.2 5.7 3.7 2.6 1.9 1.2 0.8 0.3 0.1
Towson 4.2 17.4 16.3 14.9 13.0 10.5 8.2 6.3 4.5 3.4 2.5 1.6 1.0 0.3
College of Charleston 5.8 7.0 8.9 10.5 11.8 12.0 11.4 9.8 8.7 6.9 5.5 3.7 2.7 1.3
Elon 6.6 4.1 6.2 7.8 9.4 10.7 11.5 10.9 10.0 8.7 7.5 6.1 4.6 2.4
Stony Brook 6.8 3.6 5.5 7.6 9.3 10.1 11.3 10.3 9.8 9.3 8.4 6.9 5.2 2.8
Northeastern 8.0 1.6 3.0 4.5 6.1 8.1 9.1 10.1 10.7 11.1 10.9 10.1 9.1 5.6
Monmouth 8.4 1.0 2.0 3.5 5.2 6.9 8.6 10.2 11.2 11.6 11.9 11.7 10.0 6.1
Campbell 7.8 1.9 3.0 4.9 6.4 8.6 9.9 10.2 10.8 10.9 10.4 9.4 8.0 5.6
Hampton 8.1 1.5 2.9 4.4 6.1 7.4 8.8 10.2 10.6 11.5 11.1 10.6 8.8 6.0
Drexel 9.3 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.4 4.9 6.1 7.9 9.5 11.1 12.5 14.3 15.0 11.5
N.C. A&T 11.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.0 1.6 2.3 3.6 4.6 6.5 9.0 13.1 20.9 36.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-18 1-17 2-16 3-15 4-14 5-13 6-12 7-11 8-10 9-9 10-8 11-7 12-6 13-5 14-4 15-3 16-2 17-1 18-0
UNC Wilmington 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.6 3.4 5.9 8.8 12.4 14.8 16.0 14.5 11.1 7.0 2.8 0.8
Hofstra 12 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 2.0 3.6 6.4 9.9 12.9 14.9 15.7 14.2 10.3 5.8 2.5 0.4
William & Mary 12 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.4 1.2 2.5 3.9 6.9 9.9 12.4 14.8 15.7 13.2 10.2 5.6 2.6 0.6
Towson 11 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.6 4.6 7.2 10.3 12.2 14.1 14.2 12.6 9.5 6.2 3.1 1.1 0.2
College of Charleston 10 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.5 6.5 9.3 12.3 14.1 14.1 12.8 10.5 7.0 4.2 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
Elon 9 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.8 3.1 5.9 9.0 11.9 13.7 14.4 13.0 10.3 7.4 4.9 2.4 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Stony Brook 9 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.8 3.7 6.2 9.7 12.6 13.5 13.7 12.8 9.9 7.2 4.3 2.2 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 8 - 10 0.1 0.6 1.5 3.8 7.1 10.1 12.6 14.1 14.3 12.1 9.6 6.6 4.3 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 7 - 11 0.1 0.6 2.0 4.0 7.6 11.2 14.2 15.2 14.6 11.6 8.6 5.3 2.9 1.5 0.5 0.1 0.0
Campbell 8 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.2 6.2 10.0 12.1 14.1 13.9 13.1 10.1 7.0 4.4 2.2 1.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
Hampton 7 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.1 6.9 10.5 13.2 14.2 14.2 11.9 9.2 6.4 3.9 2.2 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0
Drexel 6 - 12 0.3 1.5 4.0 7.2 11.0 14.1 15.5 13.9 11.8 8.6 5.4 3.6 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 4 - 14 2.3 7.1 12.3 16.0 16.4 14.9 11.5 8.0 5.6 3.0 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UNC Wilmington 32.1% 20.9 8.4 2.2 0.5 0.0 0.0
Hofstra 28.5% 18.0 7.9 2.2 0.4 0.1 0.0
William & Mary 28.7% 18.2 7.9 2.1 0.5 0.0 0.0
Towson 17.4% 10.4 5.1 1.5 0.4 0.0 0.0
College of Charleston 7.0% 3.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 0.0 0.0
Elon 4.1% 1.9 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Stony Brook 3.6% 1.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Northeastern 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Monmouth 1.0% 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Campbell 1.9% 0.8 0.6 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hampton 1.5% 0.6 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Drexel 0.5% 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
N.C. A&T 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UNC Wilmington 22.6% 22.6% 0.0% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.5 8.1 9.2 3.3 0.4 0.1 77.4 0.0%
Hofstra 20.3% 20.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.5 8.0 7.8 2.3 0.5 0.1 79.7 0.0%
William & Mary 19.2% 19.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.2 7.2 7.6 2.5 0.5 0.0 80.8 0.0%
Towson 12.8% 12.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 3.1 5.2 3.2 0.8 0.1 87.2 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.5 2.2 1.7 0.5 93.8 0.0%
Elon 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.6 1.2 0.5 95.2 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.3 0.8 0.2 96.4 0.0%
Northeastern 2.8% 2.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 0.9 0.5 97.2 0.0%
Monmouth 2.1% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.8 0.6 97.9 0.0%
Campbell 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.6 0.7 0.5 97.7 0.0%
Hampton 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 0.6 98.0 0.0%
Drexel 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.4 99.0 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UNC Wilmington 22.6% 0.0% 22.6% 2.7% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hofstra 20.3% 0.0% 20.3% 2.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
William & Mary 19.2% 0.0% 19.2% 2.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Towson 12.8% 0.1% 12.7% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
College of Charleston 6.2% 0.3% 6.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elon 4.8% 0.2% 4.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Stony Brook 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Northeastern 2.8% 0.3% 2.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Monmouth 2.1% 0.3% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Campbell 2.3% 0.3% 2.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hampton 2.0% 0.3% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Drexel 1.0% 0.3% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
N.C. A&T 0.3% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0 0.0
1st Round 99.1% 1.0 0.9 99.1 0.0
2nd Round 9.1% 0.1 90.9 9.1
Sweet Sixteen 1.4% 0.0 98.6 1.4
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0