Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
91 Liberty 40.0%   12   15 - 3 10 - 0 +6.2      +5.9 60 +0.3 155 62.2 342 +10.6 57 +15.6 1
112 Sam Houston St. 20.0%   11 - 7 6 - 4 +3.3      +2.0 118 +1.3 124 73.5 63 +4.2 100 +2.5 3
152 Middle Tennessee 8.3%   8 - 9 5 - 4 +0.5      -0.7 187 +1.2 127 65.1 281 +1.6 137 +0.3 5
155 Kennesaw St. 6.7%   10 - 8 5 - 5 +0.3      +1.2 133 -0.9 197 78.0 16 -0.1 161 -0.2 6
156 New Mexico St. 5.8%   7 - 10 3 - 7 +0.2      +2.0 117 -1.8 234 65.1 284 -3.4 220 -6.9 11
165 Western Kentucky 5.2%   9 - 10 4 - 6 -0.5      -1.5 210 +1.1 130 74.1 54 -0.4 167 -2.2 8
181 Missouri St. 5.0%   9 - 9 6 - 4 -1.7      -0.8 189 -0.9 199 62.8 333 -1.3 188 +1.4 4
185 Jacksonville St. 4.4%   8 - 9 6 - 3 -1.9      -1.9 220 +0.1 162 63.1 323 -2.9 214 +3.3 2
186 Florida International 1.6%   7 - 11 3 - 7 -1.9      -1.3 201 -0.6 184 78.6 12 -3.8 225 -5.5 9
210 Louisiana Tech 2.4%   9 - 8 5 - 4 -3.0      -4.6 294 +1.7 117 60.6 357 -2.0 201 -0.3 7
267 UTEP 0.3%   4 - 14 3 - 7 -5.9      -4.3 285 -1.6 229 64.0 308 -7.9 291 -6.5 10
278 Delaware 0.4%   6 - 13 2 - 7 -6.7      -4.3 283 -2.4 255 60.8 354 -8.1 294 -8.5 12


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Wed, Jan 28 155 Kennesaw St. 72 165 Western Kentucky 69   
Wed, Jan 28 181 Missouri St. 71 112 Sam Houston St. 80   
Wed, Jan 28 186 Florida International 74 185 Jacksonville St. 78   
Wed, Jan 28 278 Delaware 73 156 New Mexico St. 64   
Wed, Jan 28 210 Louisiana Tech 69 267 UTEP 59   
Thu, Jan 29 91 Liberty 81 152 Middle Tennessee 65   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Jan 31 155 Kennesaw St. 81 156 New Mexico St. 78 62%   
Sat, Jan 31 152 Middle Tennessee 74 165 Western Kentucky 70 65%   
Sat, Jan 31 185 Jacksonville St. 65 181 Missouri St. 68 62%   
Sat, Jan 31 210 Louisiana Tech 64 112 Sam Houston St. 73 81%   
Sat, Jan 31 278 Delaware 63 267 UTEP 67 64%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 1.0 98.6 1.1 0.2 0.0
Sam Houston St. 2.8 2.8 56.4 19.8 10.1 5.7 2.9 1.3 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0
Middle Tennessee 4.3 0.4 21.1 21.7 18.1 13.5 10.9 6.7 4.2 2.1 0.8 0.4 0.1
Kennesaw St. 5.0 0.2 11.8 16.4 16.8 16.0 14.2 10.1 7.4 4.7 1.7 0.6 0.0
New Mexico St. 7.8 0.7 3.1 5.2 7.7 10.1 13.1 16.6 19.1 13.7 8.3 2.4
Western Kentucky 6.6 0.0 2.3 7.4 10.4 13.0 15.3 15.6 14.8 11.2 6.9 2.6 0.7
Missouri St. 4.7 0.2 15.0 19.7 17.8 14.9 13.2 8.8 6.3 2.8 1.1 0.2
Jacksonville St. 4.5 0.6 17.9 21.1 17.1 13.5 12.2 8.4 5.3 2.7 0.9 0.3 0.1
Florida International 8.7 0.2 1.0 2.2 4.1 7.6 9.5 14.1 19.9 23.9 12.9 4.8
Louisiana Tech 6.4 0.1 4.9 8.2 9.6 12.1 14.5 15.4 14.7 10.6 7.3 2.4 0.3
UTEP 10.3 0.1 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.6 2.9 5.4 12.4 21.5 35.1 19.7
Delaware 11.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.7 5.7 13.5 25.6 49.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 18 - 2 23 - 5 0.0 0.5 2.2 6.0 12.2 21.8 27.4 21.5 8.4
Sam Houston St. 13 - 7 18 - 10 0.1 0.5 1.5 5.0 12.4 19.3 26.0 21.3 12.0 2.1
Middle Tennessee 11 - 9 14 - 14 0.0 0.4 1.2 4.1 9.8 17.0 21.9 20.2 14.3 8.0 2.7 0.5
Kennesaw St. 11 - 9 16 - 12 0.0 0.8 2.6 8.0 14.9 21.0 22.4 16.8 9.8 3.1 0.6
New Mexico St. 8 - 12 12 - 15 0.1 1.1 4.7 10.5 17.4 20.9 21.0 13.8 7.8 2.3 0.4
Western Kentucky 9 - 11 14 - 15 0.2 0.9 3.5 9.5 17.9 21.9 21.8 14.8 7.3 2.1 0.1
Missouri St. 11 - 9 14 - 14 0.2 1.4 5.6 12.7 20.6 22.7 19.4 11.7 4.6 0.9 0.1
Jacksonville St. 11 - 9 13 - 15 0.2 1.4 5.4 11.6 18.8 20.7 19.6 12.6 6.7 2.6 0.4 0.1
Florida International 7 - 13 11 - 17 0.6 3.0 8.0 15.8 23.2 22.0 15.7 8.0 3.0 0.6 0.0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 13 - 15 0.8 3.4 10.0 16.9 21.5 20.0 14.6 8.1 3.7 0.9 0.2 0.1
UTEP 6 - 14 7 - 21 3.2 12.1 23.1 25.7 18.9 10.9 4.1 1.6 0.3 0.1 0.0
Delaware 5 - 15 9 - 21 4.0 12.8 22.9 23.5 18.7 10.8 4.9 2.0 0.4 0.1 0.0

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 98.6% 96.1 2.3 0.2 0.0
Sam Houston St. 2.8% 0.8 1.7 0.2 0.0
Middle Tennessee 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1
New Mexico St.
Western Kentucky 0.0% 0.0
Missouri St. 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 0.6% 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International
Louisiana Tech 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
UTEP
Delaware


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 40.0% 39.9% 0.1% 12   0.0 0.0 0.3 10.1 24.9 4.4 0.2 60.0 0.2%
Sam Houston St. 20.0% 20.0% 0.0% 0.6 7.1 9.5 2.7 0.1 80.0 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.3% 8.3% 0.0% 0.1 1.0 2.9 2.7 1.3 0.4 91.7 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.7% 6.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 2.6 2.9 0.9 0.1 93.3 0.0%
New Mexico St. 5.8% 5.8% 0.0% 0.4 1.5 1.2 1.7 1.1 94.2 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.4 1.4 1.7 1.3 0.4 94.8 0.0%
Missouri St. 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.6 1.8 2.1 0.3 95.0 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 1.4 1.9 0.6 95.6 0.0%
Florida International 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.6 0.5 98.4 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 0.7 0.8 0.3 97.6 0.0%
UTEP 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.2 0.0
2nd Round 8.9% 0.1 91.1 8.9
Sweet Sixteen 1.0% 0.0 99.0 1.0
Elite Eight 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 40.0% 0.1% 39.9% 5.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 20.0% 0.0% 20.0% 1.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 8.3% 0.2% 8.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 6.7% 0.0% 6.7% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 5.8% 0.6% 5.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 5.2% 0.1% 5.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 5.0% 0.1% 5.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 4.4% 0.2% 4.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 1.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 0.3% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.4% 0.4% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%