Conference USA
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 Liberty 26.3%   13   3 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 10 14 - 6 +5.0      +4.4 74 +0.6 148 64.4 306 +2.0 150 0.0 1
114 New Mexico St. 17.9%   4 - 1 0 - 0 18 - 9 13 - 7 +3.4      +0.9 142 +2.5 95 63.2 328 +6.1 94 0.0 1
124 Western Kentucky 15.5%   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +2.8      +0.9 143 +2.0 110 77.8 30 +7.0 84 0.0 1
136 Sam Houston St. 11.5%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +1.8      +3.2 91 -1.5 213 70.8 153 +5.4 101 0.0 1
140 Middle Tennessee 11.2%   3 - 3 0 - 0 15 - 13 12 - 8 +1.5      +1.3 130 +0.1 166 70.0 172 +5.6 98 0.0 1
163 Kennesaw St. 5.9%   4 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 13 10 - 10 -0.6      +1.5 125 -2.1 237 78.7 20 0.0 172 0.0 1
186 Louisiana Tech 3.7%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 14 9 - 11 -2.0      -3.6 263 +1.6 122 62.4 344 -3.9 230 0.0 1
209 Florida International 2.7%   2 - 3 0 - 0 12 - 16 8 - 12 -3.0      -2.4 235 -0.5 185 74.8 57 -2.3 206 0.0 1
233 Jacksonville St. 1.4%   1 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -4.4      -5.3 317 +0.9 138 63.1 329 -10.7 316 0.0 1
236 UTEP 1.7%   0 - 4 0 - 0 8 - 19 8 - 12 -4.5      -5.2 312 +0.7 143 64.3 308 -11.0 317 0.0 1
241 Missouri St. 1.7%   1 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 18 8 - 12 -4.5      -3.5 260 -1.0 201 61.5 353 -10.0 308 0.0 1
287 Delaware 0.5%   2 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 6 - 14 -6.7      -3.0 248 -3.7 299 66.3 265 -7.7 286 0.0 1




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Mon, Dec 1 140 Middle Tennessee 76 115 UAB 61   
Mon, Dec 1 233 Jacksonville St. 66 200 North Alabama 73   
Mon, Dec 1 287 Delaware 66 149 Iona 89   
Tue, Dec 2 114 New Mexico St. 75 150 South Alabama 77   
Tue, Dec 2 49 Oklahoma St. 93 136 Sam Houston St. 83   
Tue, Dec 2 312 Jackson St. 73 163 Kennesaw St. 88   
Wed, Dec 3 176 Florida Gulf Coast 83 209 Florida International 89   
Wed, Dec 3 225 Georgia Southern 77 186 Louisiana Tech 69   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Dec 6 209 Florida International 75 277 Jacksonville 68 73%   
Sat, Dec 6 234 Abilene Christian 62 114 New Mexico St. 66 68%   
Sat, Dec 6 241 Missouri St. 61 91 Tulsa 74 88%   
Sat, Dec 6 279 Evansville 67 124 Western Kentucky 80 87%   
Sat, Dec 6 136 Sam Houston St. 81 301 Texas Southern 75 73%   
Sat, Dec 6 334 Georgia St. 72 163 Kennesaw St. 85 88%   
Sat, Dec 6 287 Delaware 71 355 Delaware St. 67 64%   
Sat, Dec 6 364 Coppin St. 59 99 Liberty 84 98%   
Sun, Dec 7 86 Belmont 78 140 Middle Tennessee 76 55%   
Sun, Dec 7 113 Seattle 71 236 UTEP 60 85%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th 12th
Liberty 2.8 36.9 20.7 13.6 9.7 6.7 4.8 3.2 2.0 1.3 0.7 0.3 0.2
New Mexico St. 3.5 24.7 19.1 15.1 12.0 9.1 6.7 4.9 3.4 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.3
Western Kentucky 4.0 19.3 17.0 14.9 12.4 10.5 8.4 6.2 4.5 3.2 2.0 1.1 0.5
Sam Houston St. 4.5 13.6 14.9 14.8 13.3 11.2 9.5 7.7 5.6 4.1 2.9 1.6 0.7
Middle Tennessee 4.5 13.6 14.3 14.1 13.2 11.2 9.7 7.7 6.1 4.3 3.1 1.8 0.9
Kennesaw St. 6.0 5.7 7.8 9.2 10.5 11.5 11.7 11.1 10.2 8.5 6.6 4.7 2.6
Louisiana Tech 6.6 3.8 5.6 8.0 9.2 10.6 11.4 11.4 11.0 10.1 8.1 6.6 4.2
Florida International 7.5 2.1 3.5 5.2 6.5 8.2 9.9 10.9 11.9 12.0 11.6 10.5 7.7
Jacksonville St. 8.3 1.1 2.1 3.6 4.8 6.3 7.8 9.9 11.2 12.8 13.7 14.0 12.8
UTEP 8.2 1.4 2.4 3.5 4.9 6.5 8.1 9.9 11.1 12.3 13.2 13.7 13.0
Missouri St. 8.3 1.2 2.4 3.6 5.0 6.5 8.0 9.6 11.1 12.8 13.4 14.0 12.5
Delaware 9.5 0.3 0.7 1.3 2.1 3.5 4.6 6.9 9.1 11.6 15.4 19.6 25.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Liberty 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.7 3.1 5.0 7.1 9.5 11.4 13.1 13.8 12.9 10.0 6.5 3.2 0.9
New Mexico St. 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.2 5.0 7.5 9.5 11.0 12.9 12.9 11.6 9.8 6.6 3.9 1.6 0.4
Western Kentucky 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.6 2.7 4.2 6.5 8.7 10.9 12.1 12.9 12.3 10.3 7.7 5.0 2.5 1.0 0.2
Sam Houston St. 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 2.3 3.6 5.7 8.0 10.0 11.8 12.6 12.7 11.0 8.7 5.9 3.3 1.6 0.6 0.1
Middle Tennessee 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.4 2.5 3.9 6.1 8.2 10.2 11.7 12.4 12.2 10.4 8.4 5.8 3.4 1.6 0.6 0.1
Kennesaw St. 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.0 3.8 5.5 8.3 10.1 11.9 12.2 12.0 10.4 8.5 5.9 4.1 2.3 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Louisiana Tech 9 - 11 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.5 3.0 5.0 7.2 9.4 11.5 12.4 12.0 10.7 9.5 6.8 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
Florida International 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.3 5.3 7.9 10.0 11.6 12.3 11.9 10.5 8.7 6.4 4.5 2.8 1.7 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 8 - 12 0.2 1.0 2.9 5.2 7.9 10.5 11.4 12.5 12.1 10.7 8.5 6.4 4.6 3.1 1.7 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UTEP 8 - 12 0.2 1.2 2.7 5.1 7.9 10.1 11.2 12.0 11.8 10.8 8.6 6.5 4.9 3.1 1.8 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Missouri St. 8 - 12 0.2 1.1 2.8 4.9 7.8 10.2 11.9 12.1 11.9 10.5 8.6 6.8 4.7 3.1 1.9 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
Delaware 6 - 14 0.8 2.7 6.3 9.6 12.3 13.5 13.9 11.7 9.8 7.4 5.1 3.2 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Liberty 36.9% 26.5 8.3 1.9 0.3 0.0
New Mexico St. 24.7% 16.4 6.4 1.6 0.3 0.0 0.0
Western Kentucky 19.3% 12.3 5.3 1.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Sam Houston St. 13.6% 8.4 3.9 1.1 0.2 0.0 0.0
Middle Tennessee 13.6% 8.4 3.9 1.0 0.2 0.0 0.0
Kennesaw St. 5.7% 3.2 1.8 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Louisiana Tech 3.8% 2.1 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Florida International 2.1% 1.1 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Jacksonville St. 1.1% 0.5 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
UTEP 1.4% 0.7 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Missouri St. 1.2% 0.6 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0
Delaware 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Liberty 26.3% 26.3% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 3.5 11.2 7.7 2.6 0.6 0.1 73.7 0.1%
New Mexico St. 17.9% 17.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 7.0 6.0 2.3 0.3 0.1 82.1 0.1%
Western Kentucky 15.5% 15.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.4 6.0 5.3 2.1 0.5 0.1 84.5 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 11.5% 11.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.7 3.5 4.4 2.1 0.6 0.2 88.5 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.5 4.1 2.1 0.6 0.2 88.8 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.9% 5.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 2.1 1.7 0.8 0.2 94.1 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.9 1.2 0.9 0.4 96.3 0.0%
Florida International 2.7% 2.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.8 0.6 0.4 97.3 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.4% 1.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.4 98.6 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 98.3 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 0.6 0.4 98.3 0.0%
Delaware 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.5 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Liberty 26.3% 0.1% 26.3% 4.6% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
New Mexico St. 17.9% 0.1% 17.8% 2.5% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Western Kentucky 15.5% 0.1% 15.5% 2.1% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sam Houston St. 11.5% 0.1% 11.5% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Middle Tennessee 11.2% 0.2% 11.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Kennesaw St. 5.9% 0.1% 5.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Louisiana Tech 3.7% 0.2% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Florida International 2.7% 0.2% 2.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Jacksonville St. 1.4% 0.3% 1.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UTEP 1.7% 0.4% 1.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Missouri St. 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Delaware 0.5% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.8 0.2
1st Round 99.2% 1.0 0.8 99.0 0.1
2nd Round 12.4% 0.1 87.6 12.4 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.4% 0.0 97.6 2.4
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.3
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0