Preseason Rankings
Iowa
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+13.6#34
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace72.8#61
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+9.5#16
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+4.0#70
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
#1 Seed 1.8% 1.8% 0.4%
Top 2 Seed 4.9% 5.1% 1.3%
Top 4 Seed 15.2% 15.6% 4.2%
Top 6 Seed 29.1% 29.7% 11.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 58.5% 59.4% 35.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 57.3% 58.2% 34.5%
Average Seed 6.4 6.4 7.6
.500 or above 80.3% 81.4% 49.7%
.500 or above in Conference 54.9% 55.7% 33.9%
Conference Champion 3.0% 3.0% 0.8%
Last Place in Conference 3.0% 2.8% 8.8%
First Four5.2% 5.2% 5.5%
First Round56.0% 56.9% 32.7%
Second Round38.4% 39.1% 20.8%
Sweet Sixteen16.8% 17.2% 7.2%
Elite Eight6.9% 7.1% 2.7%
Final Four2.8% 2.9% 1.1%
Championship Game1.3% 1.3% 0.4%
National Champion0.5% 0.5% 0.0%

Next Game: Robert Morris (Home) - 96.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 8 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a2 - 72 - 7
Quad 1b3 - 35 - 10
Quad 25 - 210 - 12
Quad 33 - 013 - 12
Quad 46 - 019 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 04, 2025 203   Robert Morris W 86-67 96%    
  Nov 07, 2025 343   Western Illinois W 86-58 99.6%   
  Nov 14, 2025 50   Xavier W 81-75 70%    
  Nov 18, 2025 228   Southeast Missouri St. W 86-66 97%    
  Nov 20, 2025 351   Chicago St. W 92-63 99%    
  Nov 25, 2025 30   Mississippi L 76-77 49%    
  Dec 02, 2025 21   @ Michigan St. L 72-77 32%    
  Dec 06, 2025 40   Maryland W 79-75 63%    
  Dec 11, 2025 20   @ Iowa St. L 73-79 31%    
  Dec 14, 2025 282   Western Michigan W 88-65 98%    
  Dec 20, 2025 286   Bucknell W 86-65 96%    
  Dec 29, 2025 301   Umass Lowell W 92-67 98%    
  Jan 03, 2026 13   UCLA L 72-73 46%    
  Jan 06, 2026 87   @ Minnesota W 73-68 65%    
  Jan 11, 2026 15   Illinois L 82-83 46%    
  Jan 14, 2026 2   @ Purdue L 70-83 14%    
  Jan 17, 2026 33   @ Indiana L 76-79 39%    
  Jan 20, 2026 82   Rutgers W 82-72 80%    
  Jan 28, 2026 29   USC W 79-77 58%    
  Feb 01, 2026 28   @ Oregon L 75-79 38%    
  Feb 04, 2026 48   @ Washington L 77-78 48%    
  Feb 08, 2026 72   Northwestern W 77-68 77%    
  Feb 11, 2026 40   @ Maryland L 76-78 43%    
  Feb 14, 2026 2   Purdue L 73-80 28%    
  Feb 17, 2026 59   Nebraska W 81-74 73%    
  Feb 22, 2026 26   @ Wisconsin L 75-80 35%    
  Feb 25, 2026 27   Ohio St. W 79-77 55%    
  Feb 28, 2026 90   @ Penn St. W 81-76 65%    
  Mar 05, 2026 6   Michigan L 78-81 40%    
  Mar 08, 2026 59   @ Nebraska W 78-77 53%    
Projected Record 18 - 12 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 3.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 1.5 0.6 0.1 4.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.7 1.7 2.0 0.7 0.1 5.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.4 0.7 0.1 5.9 4th
5th 0.3 2.1 2.8 1.1 0.1 6.3 5th
6th 0.2 1.7 3.7 1.6 0.1 7.4 6th
7th 0.0 1.1 3.4 2.6 0.4 0.0 7.6 7th
8th 0.6 3.0 3.4 0.7 0.0 7.8 8th
9th 0.3 2.2 3.6 1.3 0.1 7.5 9th
10th 0.0 1.2 3.5 2.1 0.3 7.2 10th
11th 0.0 0.5 3.1 3.2 0.6 0.0 7.3 11th
12th 0.0 0.3 2.0 3.3 1.1 0.0 6.8 12th
13th 0.1 1.0 2.9 1.9 0.2 0.0 6.0 13th
14th 0.0 0.7 2.4 2.0 0.4 0.0 5.6 14th
15th 0.0 0.4 1.5 1.9 0.5 0.0 4.3 15th
16th 0.0 0.3 1.0 1.6 0.6 0.1 3.7 16th
17th 0.0 0.3 0.9 0.9 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.6 17th
18th 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.6 18th
Total 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.8 2.5 4.5 6.3 8.0 10.1 10.9 10.6 10.6 9.8 7.9 5.9 4.5 3.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.2    0.2 0.0
18-2 86.1% 0.6    0.4 0.1 0.0
17-3 61.9% 1.0    0.6 0.4 0.1 0.0
16-4 25.6% 0.8    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
15-5 5.6% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.8% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 3.0% 3.0 1.5 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 100.0% 42.9% 57.1% 1.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
19-1 0.2% 100.0% 23.6% 76.4% 1.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 100.0%
18-2 0.7% 100.0% 33.3% 66.7% 1.5 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
17-3 1.7% 100.0% 17.1% 82.9% 2.1 0.5 0.7 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
16-4 3.0% 100.0% 18.4% 81.6% 2.7 0.4 0.9 1.0 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 4.5% 100.0% 10.9% 89.1% 3.6 0.2 0.6 1.4 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 100.0%
14-6 5.9% 100.0% 9.1% 90.9% 4.4 0.0 0.4 1.2 1.5 1.5 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 7.9% 99.7% 3.9% 95.8% 5.5 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.7%
12-8 9.8% 97.1% 1.9% 95.2% 6.6 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.5 2.3 2.1 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.3 97.1%
11-9 10.6% 91.3% 1.6% 89.7% 7.7 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.3 2.0 2.4 1.8 0.9 0.3 0.9 91.2%
10-10 10.6% 77.4% 1.1% 76.4% 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.2 1.9 1.9 1.8 0.7 0.0 2.4 77.2%
9-11 10.9% 47.5% 0.2% 47.3% 9.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 1.1 1.8 1.4 0.0 5.7 47.4%
8-12 10.1% 18.5% 0.3% 18.3% 10.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 0.9 0.1 8.3 18.3%
7-13 8.0% 2.9% 0.1% 2.8% 10.6 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 7.7 2.8%
6-14 6.3% 0.1% 0.1% 11.0 0.0 6.3 0.1%
5-15 4.5% 4.5
4-16 2.5% 2.5
3-17 1.8% 1.8
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.3% 0.3
0-20 0.1% 0.1
Total 100% 58.5% 3.0% 55.6% 6.4 1.8 3.2 4.9 5.4 6.6 7.3 7.2 7.1 5.9 5.6 3.4 0.1 41.5 57.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.5 50.0 50.0