Preseason Rankings
UCLA
Big Ten
2025-26
Overall
Predictive Rating+17.7#13
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#1
Pace63.3#305
Improvement--

Offense
Total Offense+8.6#24
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebound--
Layup/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--

Defense
Total Defense+9.1#9
First Shot--
After Offensive Rebounds--
Layups/Dunks--
2 Pt Jumpshots--
3 Pt Jumpshots--
Freethrows--
Improvement--
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 2.0% 2.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 9.1% 9.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 20.7% 20.8% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 43.1% 43.4% 10.6%
Top 6 Seed 60.9% 61.2% 20.3%
NCAA Tourney Bid 85.3% 85.6% 52.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 83.8% 84.1% 51.6%
Average Seed 4.8 4.8 7.0
.500 or above 95.5% 95.7% 71.5%
.500 or above in Conference 82.5% 82.8% 51.2%
Conference Champion 11.7% 11.8% 1.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 2.6%
First Four2.9% 2.8% 4.4%
First Round84.1% 84.4% 51.2%
Second Round68.5% 68.8% 37.1%
Sweet Sixteen39.2% 39.4% 14.1%
Elite Eight19.6% 19.7% 6.2%
Final Four9.4% 9.4% 1.8%
Championship Game4.3% 4.3% 0.0%
National Champion2.0% 2.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Eastern Washington (Home) - 99.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 4 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a4 - 64 - 6
Quad 1b4 - 28 - 8
Quad 26 - 113 - 9
Quad 34 - 017 - 9
Quad 46 - 023 - 9


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 03, 2025 259   Eastern Washington W 82-56 99%    
  Nov 07, 2025 244   Pepperdine W 82-57 99%    
  Nov 10, 2025 355   West Georgia W 86-52 99.9%   
  Nov 14, 2025 11   Arizona L 72-73 48%    
  Nov 18, 2025 279   Sacramento St. W 79-52 99%    
  Nov 21, 2025 263   Presbyterian W 78-52 99%    
  Nov 25, 2025 91   California W 75-63 85%    
  Dec 03, 2025 48   @ Washington W 72-68 62%    
  Dec 06, 2025 28   Oregon W 72-66 70%    
  Dec 13, 2025 18   Gonzaga W 74-73 55%    
  Dec 17, 2025 69   Arizona St. W 75-63 85%    
  Dec 19, 2025 253   Cal Poly W 90-64 99%    
  Dec 23, 2025 256   UC Riverside W 81-55 99%    
  Jan 03, 2026 34   @ Iowa W 73-72 54%    
  Jan 06, 2026 26   @ Wisconsin L 69-70 48%    
  Jan 10, 2026 40   Maryland W 73-65 75%    
  Jan 14, 2026 90   @ Penn St. W 75-66 77%    
  Jan 17, 2026 27   @ Ohio St. L 69-70 50%    
  Jan 20, 2026 2   Purdue L 67-70 41%    
  Jan 24, 2026 72   Northwestern W 72-59 86%    
  Jan 28, 2026 28   @ Oregon W 69-68 51%    
  Jan 31, 2026 33   Indiana W 73-66 72%    
  Feb 03, 2026 82   Rutgers W 76-62 89%    
  Feb 07, 2026 48   Washington W 75-65 78%    
  Feb 14, 2026 6   @ Michigan L 68-73 34%    
  Feb 17, 2026 21   @ Michigan St. L 67-68 46%    
  Feb 21, 2026 15   Illinois W 75-72 61%    
  Feb 24, 2026 29   USC W 73-67 70%    
  Feb 28, 2026 87   @ Minnesota W 68-59 76%    
  Mar 03, 2026 59   Nebraska W 75-64 82%    
  Mar 07, 2026 29   @ USC W 71-70 52%    
Projected Record 22 - 9 13 - 7




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big Ten Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 2.2 3.4 3.2 1.8 0.5 11.7 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.2 3.9 4.7 2.9 0.7 0.0 13.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 1.1 3.8 4.5 2.0 0.4 0.0 11.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 3.3 4.3 1.6 0.2 0.0 10.2 4th
5th 0.3 2.6 4.1 1.7 0.2 9.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 1.7 3.8 2.1 0.2 0.0 7.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.7 3.1 2.4 0.4 0.0 6.6 7th
8th 0.2 2.1 3.0 0.8 0.0 6.1 8th
9th 0.1 1.2 2.6 1.1 0.1 5.1 9th
10th 0.0 0.6 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.4 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.8 0.4 3.5 11th
12th 0.1 0.7 1.6 0.7 0.0 3.1 12th
13th 0.3 1.2 0.8 0.1 2.5 13th
14th 0.0 0.1 0.7 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.9 14th
15th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.2 15th
16th 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.8 16th
17th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 17th
18th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 18th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 1.8 3.1 4.5 6.2 7.5 9.4 10.5 11.2 11.3 10.8 9.1 6.7 3.9 1.8 0.5 Total



Big Ten Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 99.2% 1.8    1.6 0.2 0.0
18-2 82.9% 3.2    2.3 0.9 0.1
17-3 50.9% 3.4    1.8 1.3 0.2 0.0
16-4 23.8% 2.2    0.7 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
15-5 5.6% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0
14-6 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 11.7% 11.7 6.8 3.5 1.0 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 100.0% 65.7% 34.3% 1.2 0.4 0.1 100.0%
19-1 1.8% 100.0% 39.3% 60.7% 1.3 1.3 0.4 0.1 100.0%
18-2 3.9% 100.0% 35.6% 64.4% 1.5 2.2 1.5 0.2 100.0%
17-3 6.7% 100.0% 24.9% 75.1% 1.9 2.4 2.8 1.2 0.3 0.1 100.0%
16-4 9.1% 100.0% 18.8% 81.2% 2.4 1.9 3.2 2.5 1.1 0.3 0.0 0.0 100.0%
15-5 10.8% 99.9% 13.8% 86.1% 3.2 0.7 2.4 3.5 2.5 1.2 0.3 0.2 0.0 99.9%
14-6 11.3% 100.0% 9.3% 90.7% 4.2 0.2 1.0 2.6 3.3 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 100.0%
13-7 11.2% 99.6% 5.2% 94.4% 5.2 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.2 2.9 2.3 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 99.6%
12-8 10.5% 98.4% 3.6% 94.8% 6.3 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.1 2.4 1.5 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.2 98.3%
11-9 9.4% 94.7% 1.6% 93.0% 7.4 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.3 2.1 1.9 1.5 0.7 0.1 0.5 94.6%
10-10 7.5% 83.2% 0.9% 82.3% 8.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.4 1.4 1.3 0.4 1.3 83.1%
9-11 6.2% 56.3% 0.5% 55.8% 9.4 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.7 1.2 0.7 0.0 2.7 56.1%
8-12 4.5% 24.2% 0.5% 23.7% 10.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.0 3.4 23.8%
7-13 3.1% 7.2% 7.2% 10.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 2.9 7.2%
6-14 1.8% 1.8
5-15 1.0% 1.0
4-16 0.5% 0.5
3-17 0.2% 0.2
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 85.3% 9.5% 75.8% 4.8 9.1 11.6 11.9 10.6 9.8 7.9 7.8 6.1 4.9 3.9 1.8 0.0 14.7 83.8%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 1.2 82.2 17.8
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.0% 100.0% 1.0 100.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.0% 100.0% 1.4 60.6 39.4