Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
99 Hawaii 39.3%   13   14 - 5 8 - 3 +4.9      -0.8 191 +5.7 43 72.7 77 +3.4 106 +4.1 2
115 UC Irvine 27.9%   14 - 7 9 - 2 +3.0      -3.4 259 +6.4 39 71.2 119 +2.6 120 +7.0 1
134 UC Santa Barbara 14.0%   13 - 8 8 - 4 +1.5      +3.4 89 -1.9 241 63.0 326 +0.5 152 +1.0 3
142 UC San Diego 8.5%   14 - 8 6 - 6 +1.1      -0.8 190 +1.9 113 67.8 208 +1.8 134 -2.7 7
184 UC Davis 4.1%   12 - 9 7 - 5 -1.5      -0.2 170 -1.2 216 71.2 118 +0.5 151 -0.7 5
191 Cal St. Northridge 4.0%   12 - 10 7 - 5 -1.9      -0.9 195 -1.0 211 80.9 6 -0.1 163 +0.5 4
217 Cal St. Fullerton 1.6%   9 - 13 6 - 6 -3.2      -2.9 246 -0.3 178 80.8 7 -2.3 204 -1.9 6
250 Long Beach St. 0.4%   6 - 16 4 - 8 -5.0      -2.5 239 -2.5 250 69.0 177 -6.8 273 -6.3 9
263 Cal Poly 0.3%   7 - 15 5 - 7 -5.8      -1.2 200 -4.6 309 83.5 1 -5.4 251 -4.8 8
291 UC Riverside 0.0%   6 - 16 3 - 9 -7.4      -4.6 293 -2.7 263 68.2 195 -6.9 275 -8.8 10
320 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   6 - 16 2 - 10 -9.8      -5.5 315 -4.3 298 72.8 76 -8.3 296 -10.6 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 5 250 Long Beach St. 74 142 UC San Diego 77   
Thu, Feb 5 184 UC Davis 85 134 UC Santa Barbara 75   
Thu, Feb 5 217 Cal St. Fullerton 78 291 UC Riverside 72   
Thu, Feb 5 320 Cal St. Bakersfield 62 115 UC Irvine 78   
Thu, Feb 5 191 Cal St. Northridge 97 263 Cal Poly 96   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 7 115 UC Irvine 69 134 UC Santa Barbara 71 56%   
Sat, Feb 7 263 Cal Poly 82 184 UC Davis 89 76%   
Sat, Feb 7 191 Cal St. Northridge 83 291 UC Riverside 75 79%   
Sat, Feb 7 320 Cal St. Bakersfield 76 217 Cal St. Fullerton 85 82%   
Sun, Feb 8 99 Hawaii 74 142 UC San Diego 68 74%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.6 53.6 37.1 6.4 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.0
UC Irvine 1.5 60.5 29.4 7.4 1.9 0.6 0.3 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 3.1 9.7 18.8 43.5 15.7 7.6 3.7 1.0 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 4.9 0.5 2.7 14.4 23.8 23.9 21.1 11.1 2.4 0.3 0.0
UC Davis 4.7 1.1 4.3 15.6 26.0 21.7 18.0 9.5 3.1 0.6 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 4.4 1.6 5.9 20.7 25.8 22.2 14.6 7.7 1.3 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 5.9 0.1 0.9 5.2 12.9 16.8 22.0 30.5 9.6 1.9 0.2
Long Beach St. 8.2 0.0 0.1 0.8 2.4 5.1 13.4 32.2 34.3 10.4 1.3
Cal Poly 8.0 0.0 0.2 0.9 2.4 5.7 16.0 42.5 26.7 5.1 0.5
UC Riverside 9.7 0.0 0.2 0.3 1.4 6.9 22.1 52.2 16.9
Cal St. Bakersfield 10.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.8 9.1 24.3 63.2

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 15 - 5 21 - 7 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.2 9.3 19.1 28.5 26.6 12.0
UC Irvine 15 - 5 20 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 3.3 8.9 18.2 25.0 23.7 15.6 4.4
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 18 - 11 0.1 1.1 4.8 12.8 23.2 27.6 19.8 8.9 1.8
UC San Diego 11 - 9 19 - 11 0.1 0.4 3.1 11.6 24.5 30.0 21.2 7.7 1.3
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 0.5 4.0 11.5 20.5 26.8 21.5 11.1 3.8 0.4
Cal St. Northridge 11 - 9 16 - 14 0.4 2.6 8.8 18.8 25.3 23.9 14.2 5.2 0.9
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 10 13 - 17 0.6 4.9 13.9 24.2 25.9 19.2 8.5 2.7 0.3
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 9 - 21 2.2 9.5 20.5 26.5 22.6 12.8 4.7 1.1 0.1
Cal Poly 8 - 12 10 - 20 3.5 16.5 29.5 27.3 16.1 5.6 1.4 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 5 - 15 8 - 22 5.1 21.0 30.7 25.2 12.8 4.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 4 - 16 8 - 22 10.2 25.5 29.2 20.2 10.5 3.7 0.7 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 53.6% 32.0 18.7 2.5 0.2 0.1
UC Irvine 60.5% 39.9 17.9 2.5 0.2 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 9.7% 3.8 3.8 1.9 0.2 0.1
UC San Diego 0.5% 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.1% 0.1 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 1.6% 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.1 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St.
Cal Poly
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 39.3% 39.3% 0.0% 13   1.0 13.7 19.4 5.1 0.2 0.0 60.7 0.0%
UC Irvine 27.9% 27.9% 0.0% 0.3 5.5 15.2 6.5 0.4 72.2 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.0 1.5 7.1 4.8 0.6 0.0 86.0 0.0%
UC San Diego 8.5% 8.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 4.4 2.5 0.3 0.0 91.5 0.0%
UC Davis 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.3 1.8 1.6 0.4 0.0 95.9 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.0% 4.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.6 1.9 1.4 0.1 96.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 1.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.6 98.4 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 99.6 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 99.7 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.7
2nd Round 7.5% 0.1 92.5 7.5
Sweet Sixteen 1.1% 0.0 98.9 1.1
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.1
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 39.3% 0.0% 39.3% 4.1% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 27.9% 0.0% 27.9% 2.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 14.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 8.5% 0.0% 8.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.1% 0.0% 4.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.0% 0.0% 4.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 0.3% 1.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.4% 0.3% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%