Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
49 UC Irvine 68.1%   12   4 - 2 0 - 0 24 - 6 17 - 3 +9.7      +1.2 136 +8.5 21 67.8 210 +10.8 53 0.0 1
143 Hawaii 8.9%   4 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 11 12 - 8 +1.7      -0.5 185 +2.2 115 61.2 344 -0.7 188 0.0 1
152 UC Riverside 7.4%   4 - 3 0 - 0 18 - 13 12 - 8 +1.0      -0.3 180 +1.3 136 66.7 233 +6.7 87 0.0 1
161 UC Davis 6.2%   5 - 2 0 - 0 18 - 12 11 - 9 +0.4      -0.4 184 +0.8 153 79.7 11 +2.8 135 0.0 1
164 UC Santa Barbara 6.5%   3 - 2 0 - 0 16 - 13 11 - 9 +0.4      -0.3 181 +0.7 158 64.7 279 -2.1 215 0.0 1
165 Long Beach St. 6.0%   3 - 3 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 +0.3      -1.3 209 +1.6 131 76.6 37 +1.9 146 0.0 1
211 Cal St. Fullerton 2.3%   3 - 4 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -2.5      +0.5 158 -3.0 269 62.7 331 -1.6 205 0.0 1
264 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.9%   2 - 3 0 - 0 11 - 18 7 - 13 -5.3      -7.1 344 +1.8 124 62.5 334 -4.9 250 0.0 1
283 UC San Diego 0.0%   3 - 4 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 13 -6.3      -2.5 248 -3.7 285 63.4 314 -2.9 224 0.0 1
285 Cal Poly 0.6%   2 - 3 0 - 0 10 - 20 7 - 13 -6.4      -5.2 323 -1.2 212 63.3 318 -4.0 239 0.0 1
299 Cal St. Northridge 0.3%   0 - 5 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 14 -7.7      -3.9 296 -3.8 287 63.9 302 -15.3 346 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.4 77.5 13.9 5.0 2.0 1.0 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 3.9 9.6 22.3 18.0 15.0 12.1 8.9 6.1 3.9 2.5 1.3 0.4
UC Riverside 4.3 7.1 19.0 17.9 15.9 13.0 10.1 7.2 4.8 3.0 1.4 0.6
UC Davis 4.6 5.6 15.7 16.5 15.5 13.7 11.8 8.5 6.3 3.6 2.0 0.9
UC Santa Barbara 4.6 6.5 15.7 16.1 14.8 12.9 11.0 8.9 6.4 4.3 2.2 1.3
Long Beach St. 4.7 5.9 15.1 15.7 15.1 13.5 11.9 8.8 6.4 4.0 2.6 1.1
Cal St. Fullerton 6.2 1.6 6.2 8.8 10.5 12.6 13.8 14.2 12.5 9.5 6.5 3.8
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.7 0.5 2.2 3.9 5.2 7.6 10.0 12.3 14.6 16.4 15.2 12.1
UC San Diego 8.2 0.1 1.1 2.3 3.7 5.5 8.6 11.4 14.5 17.6 19.0 16.1
Cal Poly 8.3 0.2 1.3 2.4 3.7 5.9 8.1 10.9 14.4 16.6 18.1 18.3
Cal St. Northridge 8.8 0.1 0.6 1.5 2.3 3.9 5.9 8.8 12.5 16.8 21.1 26.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.2 10.0 14.7 18.7 20.0 15.5 7.4
Hawaii 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.6 3.0 5.0 7.4 9.9 11.7 13.5 12.5 11.9 9.5 6.4 3.9 1.8 0.6 0.1
UC Riverside 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.6 8.7 10.8 13.1 13.5 12.7 10.8 7.9 5.1 2.6 1.1 0.3 0.1
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.4 2.8 4.6 7.3 9.7 12.0 13.2 13.0 11.7 9.7 6.5 3.8 2.0 0.8 0.2 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 11 - 9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.7 3.3 5.3 7.6 9.4 11.1 12.7 12.4 11.5 9.2 6.7 4.3 2.4 0.9 0.3 0.1
Long Beach St. 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 1.8 3.2 5.0 7.6 9.9 11.8 12.7 12.7 11.6 8.8 6.2 4.1 2.2 0.8 0.2 0.1
Cal St. Fullerton 9 - 11 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.4 2.9 5.5 7.7 10.5 12.3 13.1 12.3 11.0 8.8 6.1 4.0 2.3 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 13 0.3 1.1 2.6 5.1 8.1 11.3 12.5 13.1 12.3 10.8 8.2 5.9 3.9 2.6 1.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 7 - 13 0.3 1.5 3.7 7.2 10.4 13.0 14.0 13.7 11.6 9.2 6.6 4.1 2.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 7 - 13 0.6 1.8 4.4 7.5 10.4 13.1 13.1 13.0 11.1 8.9 6.6 4.4 2.6 1.4 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 6 - 14 0.9 3.4 6.9 10.4 12.7 14.4 13.6 11.8 9.3 6.5 4.5 2.7 1.6 0.8 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 77.5% 67.1 9.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 9.6% 5.4 3.4 0.7 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 7.1% 3.9 2.6 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 5.6% 3.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 6.5% 3.5 2.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 5.9% 3.2 2.1 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.5% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 68.1% 61.4% 6.7% 12   0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 4.0 7.0 17.5 20.2 7.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 31.9 17.4%
Hawaii 8.9% 8.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.0 2.5 2.7 1.6 0.7 91.1 0.1%
UC Riverside 7.4% 7.3% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 2.0 2.2 1.3 0.6 92.6 0.2%
UC Davis 6.2% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.5 2.0 1.4 0.7 93.8 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 6.5% 6.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.6 1.1 93.5 0.0%
Long Beach St. 6.0% 5.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.3 1.9 1.4 0.8 94.0 0.1%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.0 97.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.9% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.6 99.1 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 68.1% 3.0% 66.6% 25.8% 8.3% 2.6% 0.8% 0.2% 0.1%
Hawaii 8.9% 0.4% 8.7% 1.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 7.4% 0.5% 7.2% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 6.2% 0.4% 6.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 6.5% 0.6% 6.2% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 6.0% 0.5% 5.7% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.3% 0.8% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.9% 0.5% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.6% 0.3% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.1 92.9 7.1 0.0
1st Round 98.5% 1.0 1.5 93.2 5.2 0.0
2nd Round 29.0% 0.3 71.0 28.7 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 9.0% 0.1 91.0 9.0 0.0
Elite Eight 2.7% 0.0 97.3 2.7
Final Four 0.8% 0.0 99.2 0.8
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1