Preseason Rankings
Big West
2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
93 UC Irvine 31.9%   12   0 - 0 0 - 0 21 - 8 15 - 5 +5.4      +0.9 135 +4.5 62 71.3 89 0.0 1 0.0 1
117 UC San Diego 18.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +2.7      +0.9 136 +1.8 117 64.9 270 0.0 1 0.0 1
134 Hawaii 14.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +1.7      +0.1 158 +1.6 120 64.8 274 0.0 1 0.0 1
135 UC Santa Barbara 15.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +1.7      +1.7 117 0.0 162 64.3 288 0.0 1 0.0 1
176 Cal St. Northridge 7.3%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 14 11 - 9 -1.3      -0.6 180 -0.6 186 78.9 8 0.0 1 0.0 1
223 Cal St. Bakersfield 3.6%   0 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3.5      -1.7 223 -1.7 227 65.9 238 0.0 1 0.0 1
252 UC Davis 2.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 18 8 - 12 -4.9      -4.8 309 -0.1 167 67.5 197 0.0 1 0.0 1
256 Cal Poly 2.0%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.0      -0.6 182 -4.4 312 84.6 2 0.0 1 0.0 1
258 UC Riverside 1.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.2      -2.4 243 -2.8 272 67.5 199 0.0 1 0.0 1
264 Long Beach St. 1.9%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.4      -2.8 255 -2.6 263 61.9 333 0.0 1 0.0 1
337 Cal St. Fullerton 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 7 - 23 5 - 15 -10.6      -7.5 357 -3.1 279 69.9 124 0.0 1 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 2.5 41.8 21.5 13.5 8.8 5.5 3.9 2.4 1.4 0.8 0.3 0.1
UC San Diego 3.5 23.2 20.2 16.0 12.4 9.7 6.7 4.8 3.3 2.2 1.1 0.4
Hawaii 3.9 17.9 17.7 16.1 13.6 11.1 8.2 5.9 4.3 3.0 1.7 0.7
UC Santa Barbara 3.8 18.0 18.0 16.3 13.6 10.9 8.3 6.1 4.1 2.7 1.5 0.7
Cal St. Northridge 5.2 7.7 10.5 12.4 12.9 12.9 11.7 10.0 8.5 6.6 4.5 2.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.3 3.3 6.1 8.1 10.0 11.4 12.6 12.4 11.8 10.5 8.6 5.1
UC Davis 7.0 2.3 3.9 5.8 7.5 9.6 11.5 12.6 13.0 13.4 12.0 8.5
Cal Poly 7.0 2.1 3.6 5.6 7.5 9.8 11.6 12.4 13.3 13.4 12.3 8.5
UC Riverside 7.1 1.9 3.4 5.4 7.2 9.2 11.2 12.6 13.7 13.8 12.9 8.7
Long Beach St. 7.2 1.7 3.2 5.3 7.1 8.8 10.9 12.3 13.2 14.0 13.9 9.7
Cal St. Fullerton 9.3 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.8 2.6 4.4 6.5 9.3 13.9 22.0 38.0




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.9 1.6 2.6 3.7 5.2 6.8 9.3 11.4 12.6 12.8 12.5 10.4 6.7 2.7
UC San Diego 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.5 2.3 3.7 5.2 6.5 8.7 9.9 11.0 11.8 11.2 9.9 7.8 5.4 2.7 0.8
Hawaii 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 2.2 3.4 4.5 6.4 8.3 9.3 10.9 11.2 10.9 10.4 8.1 6.2 3.7 1.7 0.5
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.1 2.0 3.1 4.7 6.3 8.3 9.4 10.6 11.0 11.5 10.0 8.3 6.3 3.9 1.9 0.6
Cal St. Northridge 11 - 9 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.1 2.2 3.3 5.0 6.7 8.3 9.8 10.4 10.7 10.3 9.4 7.6 6.1 3.9 2.5 1.2 0.5 0.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 1.4 2.7 4.3 6.2 8.2 9.8 10.4 11.2 10.2 9.3 8.2 6.4 4.7 3.2 1.8 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.2 6.5 8.2 9.8 11.0 11.0 10.9 9.1 7.7 6.0 4.4 3.0 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.5 4.4 6.6 8.4 10.1 11.0 10.7 10.8 9.3 7.9 5.7 4.4 3.0 1.9 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 8 - 12 0.3 1.1 2.7 4.7 6.8 8.5 10.7 11.1 11.1 10.4 8.8 7.7 5.6 4.2 2.8 1.8 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.3 3.0 5.4 7.1 9.1 10.6 10.8 11.0 10.1 8.7 7.2 5.5 4.1 2.5 1.6 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 5 - 15 3.4 8.1 11.9 13.6 14.3 12.4 10.6 8.0 6.3 4.5 2.8 1.9 1.0 0.6 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 41.8% 31.8 8.3 1.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 23.2% 16.0 5.7 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 17.9% 11.9 4.7 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 18.0% 12.2 4.6 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 7.7% 4.7 2.2 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.3% 1.9 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 2.3% 1.3 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 2.1% 1.0 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 1.9% 1.0 0.7 0.2 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 31.9% 31.6% 0.3% 12   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.4 1.0 7.6 12.0 6.5 2.5 0.8 0.1 68.1 0.4%
UC San Diego 18.9% 18.8% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 3.2 6.6 5.0 2.6 0.7 0.2 81.1 0.2%
Hawaii 14.9% 14.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 1.9 4.7 4.4 2.7 0.8 0.2 85.1 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 15.7% 15.6% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.1 5.3 4.4 2.4 0.9 0.2 84.3 0.1%
Cal St. Northridge 7.3% 7.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6 1.8 2.2 1.8 0.7 0.3 92.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.6% 3.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.0 1.0 0.7 0.2 96.4 0.0%
UC Davis 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.4 0.1 97.8 0.0%
Cal Poly 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.2 98.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.5 0.4 0.1 98.2 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.9% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 98.1 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 31.9% 0.2% 31.8% 6.4% 1.4% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 18.9% 0.2% 18.9% 2.7% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 14.9% 0.1% 14.9% 2.0% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 15.7% 0.2% 15.7% 2.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.3% 0.1% 7.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 3.6% 0.1% 3.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 2.2% 0.1% 2.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 2.0% 0.1% 2.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.8% 0.1% 1.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.9% 0.1% 1.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.4 0.6
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 98.9 0.8
2nd Round 14.7% 0.1 85.3 14.7 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 3.1% 0.0 96.9 3.1 0.0
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0