Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
84 UC San Diego 46.1%   12   9 - 1 1 - 0 25 - 5 16 - 4 +6.8      +3.9 85 +3.0 89 71.2 136 +13.4 39 +12.1 1
109 Hawaii 23.9%   8 - 2 2 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +3.7      -2.7 242 +6.4 29 72.1 108 +3.8 115 +9.6 2
143 UC Irvine 11.9%   6 - 5 2 - 0 18 - 12 13 - 7 +1.2      -4.3 289 +5.5 41 71.3 132 +0.9 155 +7.6 3
158 UC Santa Barbara 8.9%   6 - 4 2 - 0 17 - 12 12 - 8 +0.2      +3.0 102 -2.8 270 64.3 312 +0.5 158 +4.9 4
175 UC Davis 5.2%   5 - 5 0 - 1 16 - 13 11 - 9 -1.1      -0.3 173 -0.8 194 70.1 166 +1.9 144 -8.5 8
219 Cal St. Northridge 1.8%   5 - 5 1 - 1 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3.7      -1.3 201 -2.4 251 78.9 13 -1.4 187 -3.8 6
243 Cal St. Fullerton 0.8%   3 - 8 0 - 2 10 - 20 7 - 13 -4.7      -2.2 229 -2.5 253 83.4 4 -5.8 249 -20.0 11
259 Cal Poly 0.8%   3 - 9 1 - 1 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5.3      -2.5 231 -2.9 273 86.3 2 -5.9 251 -5.2 7
271 UC Riverside 0.6%   4 - 7 1 - 1 11 - 19 8 - 12 -5.8      -1.8 214 -4.0 312 67.5 235 -3.9 228 +0.9 5
276 Long Beach St. 0.3%   2 - 10 0 - 2 9 - 21 7 - 13 -6.1      -1.7 210 -4.5 320 67.4 238 -8.9 304 -11.7 9
311 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1%   3 - 8 0 - 2 8 - 22 5 - 15 -8.7      -5.0 303 -3.8 302 72.6 96 -9.2 309 -14.3 10




Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Dec 18 276 Long Beach St. 81 267 Pepperdine 78   
Fri, Dec 19 69 Belmont 84 143 UC Irvine 58   
Fri, Dec 19 247 San Diego 80 84 UC San Diego 0   
Fri, Dec 19 259 Cal Poly 87 30 UCLA 108   
Sat, Dec 20 130 St. Thomas 92 271 UC Riverside 78   
Sun, Dec 21 149 North Dakota St. 73 143 UC Irvine 74   
Sun, Dec 21 178 Idaho St. 83 175 UC Davis 93   
Sun, Dec 21 259 Cal Poly 80 171 Idaho 83   
Sun, Dec 21 243 Cal St. Fullerton 89 57 Oklahoma St. 94   
Sun, Dec 21 3 Iowa St. 91 276 Long Beach St. 60   



Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Mon, Dec 22 219 Cal St. Northridge 84 272 Sacramento St. 79 69%   
Mon, Dec 22 229 Norfolk St. 63 143 UC Irvine 69 70%   
Mon, Dec 22 244 Portland 71 158 UC Santa Barbara 79 78%   
Tue, Dec 23 311 Cal St. Bakersfield 72 171 Idaho 77 69%   
Tue, Dec 23 271 UC Riverside 61 30 UCLA 84 97%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 1.6 62.9 22.1 8.8 3.8 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 2.4 29.9 31.7 18.7 10.5 5.1 2.3 1.1 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 3.4 12.3 21.6 23.6 18.5 11.5 6.2 3.4 1.6 0.9 0.3 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 4.0 8.4 16.5 20.3 19.7 14.2 8.7 5.7 3.6 1.8 0.9 0.2
UC Davis 5.1 3.2 8.3 14.7 18.0 16.8 13.3 9.9 6.8 4.6 3.0 1.2
Cal St. Northridge 6.4 0.9 3.1 6.9 11.1 14.8 16.2 14.1 12.1 10.1 7.4 3.3
Cal St. Fullerton 7.6 0.2 1.0 2.8 5.4 8.9 12.4 14.3 15.2 15.7 14.2 9.9
Cal Poly 7.3 0.3 1.3 3.4 6.4 10.0 13.4 15.7 16.0 14.9 11.6 7.0
UC Riverside 7.3 0.4 1.4 3.2 6.7 10.9 14.8 15.3 15.8 13.6 11.3 6.9
Long Beach St. 8.1 0.1 0.5 1.7 4.1 7.1 10.4 12.9 15.4 16.5 17.6 13.7
Cal St. Bakersfield 9.4 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.4 4.5 7.2 10.7 15.0 21.5 37.4




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.6 3.2 6.1 9.6 14.1 17.6 18.1 15.4 9.7 3.4
Hawaii 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.6 3.3 5.8 9.3 12.4 15.0 16.1 14.8 10.8 6.3 2.8 0.6
UC Irvine 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.3 2.9 5.2 8.5 11.6 14.0 15.2 14.6 11.5 7.5 4.3 2.0 0.6 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.1 7.8 10.8 12.9 14.2 14.3 11.7 9.0 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0
UC Davis 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.1 3.9 6.4 9.4 11.6 13.3 14.0 13.0 10.4 7.3 4.2 2.2 0.7 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 0.0 0.3 1.2 2.9 5.7 8.7 11.6 13.7 14.6 13.0 11.0 7.8 5.0 2.7 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 13 0.1 0.5 1.6 3.9 7.1 10.9 13.5 14.7 14.3 12.2 9.0 6.0 3.4 1.7 0.8 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.5 9.4 12.9 15.4 14.9 13.5 10.4 6.8 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 8 - 12 0.1 0.8 2.5 5.3 8.9 12.3 14.7 15.3 13.5 10.9 7.5 4.3 2.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 0.2 0.8 2.5 5.4 9.1 12.9 14.8 15.4 13.2 10.6 7.0 4.5 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 5 - 15 0.9 3.7 8.4 13.1 16.2 16.3 14.6 11.0 7.3 4.6 2.3 1.0 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 62.9% 50.0 11.0 1.7 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 29.9% 19.8 8.5 1.5 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 12.3% 7.1 4.0 1.1 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 8.4% 4.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 3.2% 1.4 1.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.9% 0.4 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 0.4% 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 46.1% 45.7% 0.4% 12   0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.4 0.8 9.6 24.8 8.8 0.8 0.0 53.9 0.7%
Hawaii 23.9% 23.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 7.4 10.4 4.2 0.6 0.0 76.1 0.0%
UC Irvine 11.9% 11.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 1.7 4.9 3.8 1.2 0.1 88.1 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.1 1.2 0.2 91.1 0.0%
UC Davis 5.2% 5.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.7 2.1 1.7 0.6 0.1 94.8 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.8% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.6 0.2 98.2 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.3 99.2 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 99.4 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.7 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 46.1% 0.3% 46.0% 9.2% 2.1% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 23.9% 0.0% 23.9% 2.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 11.9% 0.0% 11.9% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 8.9% 0.1% 8.9% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 5.2% 0.0% 5.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 1.8% 0.1% 1.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.8% 0.2% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.8% 0.3% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.6% 0.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.3% 0.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.6 0.4
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 99.3 0.2
2nd Round 13.8% 0.1 86.2 13.8 0.0
Sweet Sixteen 2.8% 0.0 97.2 2.8
Elite Eight 0.3% 0.0 99.7 0.4
Final Four 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0