Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
69 UC Irvine 42.1%   12   3 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 8 16 - 4 +7.1      +0.6 157 +6.5 33 66.1 256 +11.6 50 0.0 1
95 UC Santa Barbara 27.0%   2 - 1 0 - 0 21 - 8 14 - 6 +5.3      +3.9 76 +1.4 121 64.2 298 -3.6 228 0.0 1
131 UC Riverside 14.6%   3 - 2 0 - 0 19 - 11 13 - 7 +2.4      -2.7 261 +5.1 51 66.0 262 +7.4 81 0.0 1
186 Hawaii 6.1%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 13 10 - 10 -1.2      +1.5 123 -2.7 261 68.1 218 -3.1 222 0.0 1
187 UC San Diego 0.0%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 14 10 - 10 -1.2      -1.4 214 +0.2 168 71.2 124 +0.7 165 0.0 1
193 Cal St. Fullerton 4.6%   3 - 3 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 -1.4      +1.0 137 -2.4 251 64.4 295 -2.3 210 0.0 1
204 Cal St. Bakersfield 4.6%   1 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 14 10 - 10 -1.9      -3.7 280 +1.7 108 65.3 275 +1.8 154 0.0 1
212 UC Davis 4.4%   2 - 2 0 - 0 13 - 15 9 - 11 -2.2      -2.5 250 +0.3 160 77.2 35 -1.1 194 0.0 1
287 Long Beach St. 0.7%   2 - 4 0 - 0 9 - 21 6 - 14 -7.1      -2.5 251 -4.6 303 80.5 14 -3.4 226 0.0 1
297 Cal St. Northridge 0.6%   1 - 3 0 - 0 8 - 21 6 - 14 -7.5      -2.5 255 -5.0 312 63.8 307 -8.5 298 0.0 1
315 Cal Poly 0.3%   1 - 4 0 - 0 7 - 24 5 - 15 -8.7      -5.9 329 -2.8 267 63.4 315 -14.8 341 0.0 1






Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place
1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 2.0 51.4 24.1 12.1 6.6 2.8 1.7 0.8 0.6 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 2.7 32.3 26.6 15.8 9.6 6.8 4.2 2.5 1.4 0.6 0.2 0.1
UC Riverside 3.7 14.6 20.0 20.5 14.5 10.5 8.9 5.2 3.0 1.8 0.9 0.2
Hawaii 5.5 4.8 8.0 11.3 13.6 13.3 14.5 11.5 9.5 6.7 4.5 2.3
UC San Diego 5.5 4.5 7.6 11.2 13.4 14.5 13.4 12.8 10.3 7.0 3.8 1.6
Cal St. Fullerton 5.6 3.6 7.6 10.5 13.6 14.5 14.4 12.1 10.6 6.9 4.0 2.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 5.7 4.2 7.4 10.9 12.9 11.7 13.6 12.5 10.0 8.8 5.1 2.9
UC Davis 6.0 2.7 6.5 8.5 12.8 13.1 12.7 12.8 11.6 9.8 6.2 3.3
Long Beach St. 8.4 0.1 0.8 1.9 3.5 4.7 8.2 11.3 14.4 17.8 20.5 16.8
Cal St. Northridge 8.7 0.2 0.8 1.4 2.2 4.0 7.0 9.4 13.2 18.3 21.9 21.6
Cal Poly 9.2 0.1 0.3 1.0 1.4 3.2 4.6 7.1 11.6 16.3 24.4 30.1




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 16 - 4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.9 1.6 3.4 4.7 8.1 11.5 12.7 16.8 15.8 13.1 7.6 2.9
UC Santa Barbara 14 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.9 2.8 4.5 6.4 8.2 10.7 12.9 13.6 13.1 12.1 6.9 4.8 1.1
UC Riverside 13 - 7 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.7 1.2 2.2 4.2 6.0 7.9 10.5 12.0 13.3 13.7 10.7 8.2 5.3 2.5 1.2 0.2
Hawaii 10 - 10 0.0 0.3 0.4 1.0 2.1 3.9 5.5 6.9 9.3 12.1 11.8 12.5 10.8 7.7 6.7 4.5 2.5 1.1 0.8 0.2
UC San Diego 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.8 1.8 3.8 5.3 7.7 10.2 12.1 12.0 12.2 11.1 8.1 6.4 3.9 2.4 1.3 0.4 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.0 1.6 3.6 6.1 7.8 9.9 11.7 13.8 12.1 10.2 7.8 6.2 4.2 2.2 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 10 - 10 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.4 4.7 6.7 7.7 10.9 12.2 10.9 10.3 10.0 8.3 5.6 3.9 2.9 1.0 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 9 - 11 0.1 0.1 0.9 1.6 3.1 4.8 7.7 9.1 11.3 11.6 11.1 11.8 9.1 6.9 5.0 2.8 1.9 0.8 0.2 0.2 0.0
Long Beach St. 6 - 14 0.4 2.5 4.5 7.9 12.0 14.1 13.2 12.2 11.5 8.1 5.5 4.2 2.0 1.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 6 - 14 1.1 3.0 6.8 8.7 13.7 14.1 13.4 11.7 9.8 6.8 5.0 2.7 1.3 0.9 0.9 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 5 - 15 1.5 4.5 9.1 13.6 13.9 14.8 12.3 10.8 7.3 5.0 3.4 1.6 1.2 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.1




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 51.4% 40.4 9.6 1.2 0.2
UC Santa Barbara 32.3% 23.1 8.0 1.1 0.1
UC Riverside 14.6% 9.3 4.2 1.0 0.1
Hawaii 4.8% 2.5 1.6 0.6 0.1
UC San Diego 4.5% 2.8 1.2 0.4 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 3.6% 2.0 1.1 0.4 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.2% 2.1 1.5 0.4 0.2
UC Davis 2.7% 1.4 1.0 0.2 0.1
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.2% 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.0 0.1


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 42.1% 37.9% 4.2% 12   0.1 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.4 0.8 0.7 1.2 2.0 2.8 6.3 14.0 9.5 2.8 0.8 0.2 57.9 6.8%
UC Santa Barbara 27.0% 26.4% 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.3 4.7 7.6 5.9 4.8 1.5 73.0 0.7%
UC Riverside 14.6% 14.4% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 2.2 3.9 4.1 2.5 0.7 85.5 0.2%
Hawaii 6.1% 6.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.5 1.7 1.7 93.9 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.2 1.9 1.0 95.4 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 1.2 0.8 95.4 0.0%
UC Davis 4.4% 4.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 1.4 0.9 95.6 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6 99.3 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.6% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.4 99.4 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 99.7 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid
First
Four
First
Round
Second
Round
Sweet
Sixteen
Elite
Eight
Final
Four
Final
Game
Champion
UC Irvine 42.1% 2.6% 40.9% 12.1% 4.3% 1.3% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 27.0% 0.7% 26.7% 5.4% 1.8% 0.4% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
UC Riverside 14.6% 0.3% 14.5% 2.6% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 6.1% 1.0% 5.6% 0.4% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 4.6% 0.4% 4.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 4.6% 0.4% 4.6% 0.5% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.4% 0.3% 4.2% 0.3% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.7% 0.5% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 0.6% 0.3% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.3% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 95.1 4.9 0.0
1st Round 98.7% 1.0 1.3 95.3 3.4 0.0
2nd Round 21.3% 0.2 78.7 21.0 0.3
Sweet Sixteen 7.1% 0.1 93.0 7.0 0.1
Elite Eight 1.8% 0.0 98.2 1.8
Final Four 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Game 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0