Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
116 UC Irvine 30.3%   14   16 - 9 11 - 4 +3.0      -3.8 272 +6.8 32 71.3 107 +2.1 129 +3.8 1
117 Hawaii 27.7%   16 - 7 10 - 5 +3.0      -2.2 233 +5.2 50 73.2 63 +2.1 127 +2.1 3
137 UC San Diego 8.6%   16 - 9 8 - 7 +1.4      -1.7 221 +3.2 87 68.7 179 +1.9 133 -1.8 8
144 UC Santa Barbara 12.1%   15 - 10 10 - 6 +0.9      +3.7 88 -2.8 255 63.1 327 +0.1 156 +0.1 4
159 Cal St. Northridge 14.0%   15 - 10 10 - 5 -0.1      -0.3 170 +0.2 165 80.8 4 +1.5 139 +3.0 2
179 UC Davis 3.9%   14 - 11 9 - 7 -1.2      -0.8 183 -0.5 185 70.0 135 0.0 159 -1.0 6
205 Cal St. Fullerton 2.4%   12 - 14 9 - 7 -2.8      -1.4 210 -1.3 215 79.7 8 -1.1 175 -0.4 5
231 Cal Poly 1.0%   10 - 16 8 - 8 -3.8      -0.9 188 -3.0 263 83.0 1 -3.0 217 -1.6 7
264 Long Beach St. 0.0%   6 - 19 4 - 11 -5.7      -3.6 268 -2.1 238 69.5 150 -7.8 291 -7.9 9
279 UC Riverside 0.0%   7 - 19 4 - 12 -6.8      -4.5 290 -2.3 246 69.0 166 -7.5 284 -9.0 10
331 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   6 - 19 2 - 13 -11.2      -6.3 325 -4.9 312 73.1 64 -9.1 312 -11.6 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 19 159 Cal St. Northridge 85 144 UC Santa Barbara 83   
Thu, Feb 19 231 Cal Poly 86 117 Hawaii 75   
Thu, Feb 19 264 Long Beach St. 58 116 UC Irvine 69   
Thu, Feb 19 179 UC Davis 92 205 Cal St. Fullerton 93   
Thu, Feb 19 279 UC Riverside 93 331 Cal St. Bakersfield 65   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 21 116 UC Irvine 70 137 UC San Diego 66 67%   
Sat, Feb 21 117 Hawaii 75 144 UC Santa Barbara 70 69%   
Sat, Feb 21 159 Cal St. Northridge 81 264 Long Beach St. 78 60%   
Sat, Feb 21 179 UC Davis 75 279 UC Riverside 73 60%   
Sat, Feb 21 331 Cal St. Bakersfield 79 205 Cal St. Fullerton 84 70%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.4 73.6 15.8 7.6 2.4 0.4 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 2.0 33.1 42.2 16.0 6.0 1.8 0.7 0.2 0.0
UC San Diego 5.2 0.5 3.0 9.3 21.3 24.4 18.3 14.5 8.8
UC Santa Barbara 3.7 5.5 13.6 22.8 34.5 15.5 6.3 1.7 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 2.4 27.4 29.0 29.9 8.6 3.4 1.2 0.3 0.0
UC Davis 5.3 0.4 2.8 7.1 16.6 26.1 24.8 15.8 6.4
Cal St. Fullerton 5.4 0.4 3.2 7.9 16.2 24.0 21.4 19.7 7.4
Cal Poly 6.8 0.0 0.8 3.8 11.3 18.9 28.5 36.6 0.1
Long Beach St. 9.2 0.0 0.2 1.0 82.2 15.3 1.2
UC Riverside 9.6 0.0 38.4 59.2 2.4
Cal St. Bakersfield 10.8 5.3 12.9 81.9

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 14 - 6 19 - 11 0.4 4.0 14.6 30.8 34.3 15.8
Hawaii 14 - 6 20 - 8 0.2 2.3 11.6 29.7 37.2 19.0
UC San Diego 11 - 9 19 - 11 0.5 6.3 24.6 37.3 25.1 6.3
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 17 - 12 3.4 23.7 40.8 26.2 5.9
Cal St. Northridge 13 - 7 18 - 12 0.7 6.2 18.5 32.7 30.2 11.7
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 8.2 28.4 36.8 21.9 4.7
Cal St. Fullerton 11 - 9 14 - 16 8.1 30.1 36.6 20.6 4.6
Cal Poly 10 - 10 12 - 18 4.0 25.7 47.7 20.1 2.6
Long Beach St. 6 - 14 8 - 22 9.6 27.8 33.9 21.5 6.5 0.8
UC Riverside 5 - 15 8 - 22 29.8 42.8 22.5 4.6 0.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 3 - 17 7 - 23 26.4 39.8 25.0 7.6 1.2 0.1

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 73.6% 47.3 19.3 6.0 0.9 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 33.1% 10.4 16.0 5.6 0.9 0.1 0.0
UC San Diego 0.5% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 5.5% 0.8 2.2 1.5 0.8 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 27.4% 9.5 11.3 5.6 0.9 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 0.4% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.4% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly
Long Beach St.
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 30.3% 30.3% 0.0% 14   0.0 4.0 17.0 8.7 0.6 0.0 69.7 0.0%
Hawaii 27.7% 27.7% 0.0% 0.0 4.0 15.7 7.5 0.4 0.0 72.3 0.0%
UC San Diego 8.6% 8.6% 0.0% 0.0 1.0 4.5 2.7 0.3 0.0 91.5 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 12.1% 12.1% 0.0% 0.6 5.1 5.5 0.9 0.0 87.9 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 0.4 4.5 7.0 2.0 0.1 86.0 0.0%
UC Davis 3.9% 3.9% 0.0% 0.1 1.3 1.9 0.6 0.0 96.1 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.4 97.6 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 0.7 99.0 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8
2nd Round 4.7% 0.0 95.3 4.7
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 30.3% 0.0% 30.3% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 27.7% 0.0% 27.7% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 8.6% 0.0% 8.6% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 12.1% 0.0% 12.1% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 14.0% 0.0% 14.0% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.9% 0.0% 3.9% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.4% 0.1% 2.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.0% 0.5% 0.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%