Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
107 Hawaii 25.4%   0 - 1 0 - 0 20 - 8 14 - 6 +3.7      -0.3 171 +4.0 66 66.8 244 +2.0 132 0.0 1
108 UC Irvine 27.7%   13   0 - 0 0 - 0 20 - 9 14 - 6 +3.6      -0.1 159 +3.7 72 71.3 114 0.0 165 0.0 1
123 UC Santa Barbara 18.8%   0 - 0 0 - 0 18 - 10 13 - 7 +2.1      +2.1 104 0.0 159 64.3 302 0.0 165 0.0 1
143 UC San Diego 12.5%   0 - 0 0 - 0 16 - 12 12 - 8 +0.3      +0.2 152 +0.1 156 64.9 288 0.0 165 0.0 1
218 UC Davis 4.5%   1 - 0 0 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 -3.3      -3.0 260 -0.2 169 67.5 220 +6.7 57 0.0 1
225 Cal St. Northridge 4.1%   0 - 1 0 - 0 14 - 16 9 - 11 -3.5      -2.7 248 -0.8 188 78.9 16 -4.5 301 0.0 1
249 Cal St. Bakersfield 2.2%   0 - 1 0 - 0 13 - 17 9 - 11 -4.7      -2.6 243 -2.1 241 65.9 263 -3.8 294 0.0 1
273 Cal Poly 1.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5.8      -2.6 246 -3.2 291 84.6 3 +3.9 101 0.0 1
278 Long Beach St. 1.7%   0 - 1 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -6.2      -4.2 307 -2.0 235 61.9 340 +2.5 126 0.0 1
280 UC Riverside 1.7%   0 - 0 0 - 0 11 - 19 8 - 12 -6.2      -3.7 288 -2.5 262 67.5 222 0.0 165 0.0 1
342 Cal St. Fullerton 0.2%   0 - 0 0 - 0 8 - 22 5 - 15 -9.9      -6.7 356 -3.2 292 69.9 149 0.0 165 0.0 1





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 2.8 31.5 23.7 16.8 10.5 6.7 4.3 2.8 1.9 1.1 0.4 0.4
UC Irvine 2.8 35.1 21.4 14.7 9.6 7.0 4.5 3.3 1.9 1.5 0.8 0.3
UC Santa Barbara 3.4 23.8 19.7 16.0 14.5 7.8 6.8 4.6 3.4 1.9 0.9 0.6
UC San Diego 4.2 14.2 15.6 15.9 14.3 10.8 9.6 6.9 5.3 3.3 2.9 1.2
UC Davis 5.9 4.3 6.8 9.6 11.6 13.0 13.4 11.6 11.0 7.6 7.0 4.1
Cal St. Northridge 6.1 3.8 6.1 8.7 11.0 12.5 13.3 11.7 10.7 10.6 7.3 4.3
Cal St. Bakersfield 6.6 2.6 4.4 7.2 9.6 12.0 12.2 12.4 11.5 11.1 9.8 7.1
Cal Poly 7.3 1.1 2.9 4.3 8.0 10.0 10.9 12.5 13.4 13.9 13.5 9.5
Long Beach St. 7.3 1.7 2.7 4.5 6.7 8.4 11.8 12.8 14.0 14.4 12.6 10.4
UC Riverside 7.4 1.6 3.3 5.2 7.6 7.4 9.6 12.1 13.6 14.1 13.5 12.2
Cal St. Fullerton 9.0 0.2 0.8 1.0 2.9 3.5 6.2 8.2 10.1 14.7 21.1 31.3




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 14 - 6 0.1 0.1 0.4 0.7 1.3 2.1 2.9 5.5 6.3 8.5 11.2 13.0 13.1 12.5 9.4 7.3 4.4 1.1
UC Irvine 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.8 1.4 2.5 3.3 5.1 6.8 7.9 9.4 10.8 12.8 12.6 11.0 7.5 4.9 2.2
UC Santa Barbara 13 - 7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.5 0.6 1.8 2.4 3.3 5.5 5.7 8.8 11.2 11.2 11.3 11.2 9.6 7.5 5.7 2.7 0.8
UC San Diego 12 - 8 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.1 1.8 3.2 4.5 5.4 6.8 9.1 11.1 9.8 11.1 10.0 8.9 6.3 5.4 2.8 1.3 0.5
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.2 0.2 0.8 2.2 3.4 4.4 6.3 8.9 10.6 10.8 11.6 10.9 8.7 7.4 6.0 3.5 2.2 1.4 0.4 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 9 - 11 0.1 0.5 0.8 2.0 3.7 6.1 7.6 10.3 9.7 11.2 10.6 10.6 8.2 6.9 5.2 3.5 1.6 0.9 0.5 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 9 - 11 0.3 0.5 2.2 2.7 5.7 6.9 8.6 10.0 10.1 10.4 11.2 9.7 8.2 5.4 3.6 2.2 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.2 0.9 2.4 4.9 6.7 10.0 11.8 10.7 10.7 10.9 9.3 7.1 6.4 3.2 2.0 1.7 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0
Long Beach St. 8 - 12 0.3 1.6 2.3 4.8 6.9 9.3 11.2 11.9 10.7 11.9 9.3 7.1 4.7 3.7 2.1 1.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.1
UC Riverside 8 - 12 0.3 1.8 3.7 5.1 7.2 9.4 11.7 11.5 10.9 9.2 7.1 7.3 5.6 3.2 2.8 1.8 0.8 0.3 0.3
Cal St. Fullerton 5 - 15 2.4 5.6 9.2 13.1 12.7 12.7 11.3 9.3 8.0 5.6 4.0 2.7 1.9 0.7 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 31.5% 22.4 7.7 1.3 0.1
UC Irvine 35.1% 25.9 8.0 1.2 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 23.8% 16.6 6.1 1.0 0.1
UC San Diego 14.2% 9.8 3.7 0.5 0.1
UC Davis 4.3% 2.2 1.5 0.4 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 3.8% 1.9 1.3 0.5 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.6% 1.2 1.0 0.3 0.2
Cal Poly 1.1% 0.6 0.3 0.2
Long Beach St. 1.7% 0.9 0.5 0.3 0.0
UC Riverside 1.6% 0.7 0.6 0.2
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.1 0.1 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 25.4% 25.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.2 0.5 2.5 8.3 7.2 4.4 1.2 0.4 74.6 0.1%
UC Irvine 27.7% 27.6% 0.1% 13   0.2 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.5 3.0 9.4 7.6 4.4 1.6 0.3 72.3 0.2%
UC Santa Barbara 18.8% 18.5% 0.2% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.2 2.2 5.5 5.2 3.7 1.5 0.3 81.2 0.3%
UC San Diego 12.5% 12.4% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.0 3.5 3.5 2.6 1.5 0.2 87.5 0.1%
UC Davis 4.5% 4.5% 0.0% 0.1 0.8 1.3 1.0 0.9 0.4 95.5 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.1% 4.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.9 1.0 1.0 0.7 95.9 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.2% 2.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.5 0.4 97.8 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.5 0.5 0.4 0.2 98.3 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.4 98.3 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.7% 1.7% 0.0% 0.2 0.6 0.5 0.3 0.3 98.3 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.1 0.0 0.1 99.8 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 25.4% 0.2% 25.3% 3.9% 0.8% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 27.7% 0.2% 27.6% 5.2% 1.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 18.8% 0.3% 18.7% 3.0% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 12.5% 0.1% 12.5% 1.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 4.5% 0.2% 4.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.1% 0.2% 4.1% 0.2% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 2.2% 0.2% 2.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.7% 0.1% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 1.7% 0.3% 1.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 1.7% 0.1% 1.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.2% 0.0% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.5 0.5
1st Round 99.5% 1.0 0.5 99.1 0.4
2nd Round 14.9% 0.1 85.1 14.9
Sweet Sixteen 3.2% 0.0 96.8 3.2
Elite Eight 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0