Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace Results Rating Conf Results Rating
121 Hawaii 34.0%   14   19 - 7 13 - 5 +2.9      -1.8 216 +4.7 53 72.6 73 +3.6 111 +4.0 1
124 UC Irvine 31.8%   18 - 10 13 - 5 +2.8      -4.5 290 +7.3 28 70.7 116 +2.3 125 +3.8 2
131 UC San Diego 11.2%   19 - 9 11 - 7 +1.8      -1.3 199 +3.1 87 68.1 187 +2.7 123 -0.1 4
142 UC Santa Barbara 8.9%   16 - 12 11 - 8 +1.1      +2.7 102 -1.6 220 63.0 328 -0.1 159 -0.4 5
168 Cal St. Northridge 7.5%   16 - 12 11 - 7 -0.7      -0.8 183 +0.1 165 81.0 4 +0.6 147 +1.3 3
176 UC Davis 3.5%   15 - 12 10 - 8 -1.1      -0.7 179 -0.4 185 70.2 130 0.0 157 -1.0 7
205 Cal St. Fullerton 2.0%   13 - 15 10 - 8 -2.4      -0.5 176 -1.9 230 79.1 6 -1.3 182 -0.8 6
228 Cal Poly 1.0%   11 - 17 9 - 9 -3.8      -0.7 182 -3.0 266 82.9 1 -3.0 215 -1.6 8
268 Long Beach St. 0.0%   7 - 21 5 - 13 -6.0      -3.1 253 -2.9 258 70.0 133 -7.8 290 -7.8 9
278 UC Riverside 0.0%   8 - 21 5 - 14 -6.3      -4.9 301 -1.4 217 70.0 132 -7.3 285 -8.3 10
329 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   6 - 22 2 - 16 -11.2      -5.5 312 -5.7 326 73.3 56 -10.3 324 -13.3 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Sat, Feb 28 205 Cal St. Fullerton 85 121 Hawaii 87   
Sat, Feb 28 124 UC Irvine 64 142 UC Santa Barbara 60   
Sat, Feb 28 329 Cal St. Bakersfield 87 268 Long Beach St. 88   
Sat, Feb 28 168 Cal St. Northridge 84 278 UC Riverside 95   
Sat, Feb 28 228 Cal Poly 64 131 UC San Diego 80   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Mar 5 205 Cal St. Fullerton 77 131 UC San Diego 78 55%   
Thu, Mar 5 228 Cal Poly 73 124 UC Irvine 82 82%   
Thu, Mar 5 268 Long Beach St. 75 176 UC Davis 77 57%   
Thu, Mar 5 329 Cal St. Bakersfield 79 168 Cal St. Northridge 87 77%   
Fri, Mar 6 121 Hawaii 78 278 UC Riverside 66 87%   
Sat, Mar 7 131 UC San Diego 70 142 UC Santa Barbara 72 59%   
Sat, Mar 7 176 UC Davis 67 124 UC Irvine 74 74%   
Sat, Mar 7 168 Cal St. Northridge 89 205 Cal St. Fullerton 85 68%   
Sat, Mar 7 329 Cal St. Bakersfield 80 228 Cal Poly 91 84%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.1 85.1 14.9
UC Irvine 1.3 69.2 30.8
Cal St. Northridge 3.2 0.0 3.4 79.6 10.7 5.4 1.0
UC San Diego 3.9 0.0 1.4 45.8 26.0 16.7 9.0 1.1
UC Santa Barbara 4.2 28.1 32.3 29.8 9.1 0.8
UC Davis 5.6 6.0 8.9 31.6 31.9 18.7 3.0
Cal St. Fullerton 5.5 15.1 1.6 31.8 22.2 25.5 3.9
Cal Poly 7.1 0.2 7.5 15.0 33.6 43.7
Long Beach St. 9.1 93.5 6.5
UC Riverside 9.4 56.5 43.5
Cal St. Bakersfield 11.0 100.0

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 15 - 5 21 - 7 1.7 22.1 76.2
UC Irvine 15 - 5 20 - 10 5.0 34.3 60.7
Cal St. Northridge 12 - 8 17 - 13 7.9 40.0 52.1
UC San Diego 12 - 8 20 - 10 26.8 49.8 23.4
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 17 - 12 41.2 58.8
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 31.6 52.5 15.8
Cal St. Fullerton 11 - 9 14 - 16 38.0 46.9 15.1
Cal Poly 10 - 10 12 - 18 14.2 70.4 15.5
Long Beach St. 6 - 14 8 - 22 51.0 43.1 5.9
UC Riverside 5 - 15 8 - 22 87.3 12.7
Cal St. Bakersfield 2 - 18 6 - 24 64.3 31.2 4.5

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 85.1% 30.8 54.3 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 69.2% 14.9 54.3 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 0.0% 0.0
UC Santa Barbara
UC Davis
Cal St. Fullerton
Cal Poly
Long Beach St.
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 34.0% 34.0% 0.0% 14   0.0 7.3 20.7 5.9 0.1 66.0 0.0%
UC Irvine 31.8% 31.8% 0.0% 0.0 3.8 19.8 8.0 0.3 68.2 0.0%
UC San Diego 11.2% 11.2% 0.0% 1.7 7.1 2.4 0.1 88.8 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.3 4.1 4.1 0.4 91.1 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.5% 7.5% 0.0% 0.1 2.1 4.1 1.1 0.0 92.5 0.0%
UC Davis 3.5% 3.5% 0.0% 0.0 1.4 1.6 0.4 0.0 96.5 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.0% 2.0% 0.0% 0.0 0.4 1.2 0.4 98.0 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.0% 1.0% 0.0% 0.2 0.8 99.0 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.7
2nd Round 4.9% 0.0 95.1 4.9
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 34.0% 0.0% 34.0% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 31.8% 0.0% 31.8% 1.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 11.2% 0.0% 11.2% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 7.5% 0.0% 7.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.5% 0.0% 3.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.0% 0.1% 1.9% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.0% 0.6% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%