Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
116 Hawaii 30.7%   14   18 - 7 12 - 5 +3.1      -2.3 236 +5.4 48 72.9 67 +3.2 114 +3.5 1
123 UC Irvine 30.0%   17 - 10 12 - 5 +2.8      -3.9 273 +6.7 33 70.8 116 +2.0 129 +3.4 2
132 UC San Diego 10.2%   18 - 9 10 - 7 +1.6      -1.1 197 +2.7 102 68.4 184 +2.7 120 -0.4 6
142 UC Santa Barbara 10.5%   16 - 11 11 - 7 +1.1      +3.2 98 -2.1 237 63.0 326 +0.1 156 +0.1 4
157 Cal St. Northridge 12.0%   16 - 11 11 - 6 -0.1      -0.7 182 +0.6 155 80.5 5 +1.3 141 +2.4 3
175 UC Davis 3.1%   15 - 12 10 - 8 -1.1      -0.6 176 -0.5 187 70.2 133 0.0 157 -1.0 7
205 Cal St. Fullerton 2.4%   13 - 14 10 - 7 -2.5      -1.0 194 -1.5 218 79.5 6 -0.8 174 0.0 5
222 Cal Poly 1.2%   11 - 16 9 - 8 -3.5      -0.3 171 -3.2 269 83.4 1 -2.7 213 -1.3 8
265 Long Beach St. 0.0%   6 - 21 4 - 13 -5.9      -3.4 257 -2.5 251 69.7 140 -8.4 299 -8.7 9
281 UC Riverside 0.0%   7 - 21 4 - 14 -6.8      -5.3 309 -1.5 219 69.6 144 -8.0 294 -9.6 10
332 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0%   6 - 21 2 - 15 -11.3      -5.9 321 -5.4 322 73.0 65 -9.7 317 -12.4 11


Recent Games

Date Team Points Team Points Interest
Thu, Feb 26 157 Cal St. Northridge 67 123 UC Irvine 68   
Thu, Feb 26 116 Hawaii 77 175 UC Davis 73   
Thu, Feb 26 281 UC Riverside 59 142 UC Santa Barbara 70   
Thu, Feb 26 222 Cal Poly 102 265 Long Beach St. 92   
Thu, Feb 26 332 Cal St. Bakersfield 72 132 UC San Diego 84   


Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Sat, Feb 28 123 UC Irvine 72 142 UC Santa Barbara 67 67%   
Sat, Feb 28 205 Cal St. Fullerton 77 116 Hawaii 80 60%   
Sat, Feb 28 222 Cal Poly 77 132 UC San Diego 85 78%   
Sat, Feb 28 157 Cal St. Northridge 80 281 UC Riverside 76 64%   
Sat, Feb 28 332 Cal St. Bakersfield 75 265 Long Beach St. 78 59%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Season

Projected Place
Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
Hawaii 1.3 72.6 23.8 3.2 0.3 0.0
UC Irvine 1.4 64.6 28.7 5.5 1.1 0.1
UC San Diego 4.6 0.2 2.9 17.1 34.8 20.9 15.0 5.1 3.9
UC Santa Barbara 4.1 0.5 6.1 18.3 42.6 21.7 9.6 1.1 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 2.6 11.7 28.6 48.1 8.5 2.1 0.8 0.1
UC Davis 5.9 0.1 1.9 9.2 23.3 34.8 24.9 6.1
Cal St. Fullerton 5.2 0.3 2.2 9.8 18.1 25.6 23.0 15.9 5.1
Cal Poly 6.8 0.0 0.7 3.6 12.3 17.2 26.8 39.4
Long Beach St. 9.1 88.6 11.1 0.4
UC Riverside 9.6 41.3 58.2 0.5
Cal St. Bakersfield 10.8 5.1 7.5 87.5

Projected Wins
Team Exp Conf Record Exp Overall Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
Hawaii 14 - 6 20 - 8 0.8 9.8 43.0 46.4
UC Irvine 14 - 6 19 - 11 1.8 15.2 41.5 41.5
UC San Diego 12 - 8 20 - 10 6.7 31.8 43.5 18.0
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 17 - 12 27.6 52.2 20.3
Cal St. Northridge 13 - 7 18 - 12 2.8 18.1 43.0 36.1
UC Davis 11 - 9 16 - 13 32.9 52.1 15.0
Cal St. Fullerton 11 - 9 14 - 16 23.7 42.4 27.7 6.2
Cal Poly 10 - 10 12 - 18 10.3 57.8 27.9 4.0
Long Beach St. 5 - 15 7 - 23 20.8 46.5 29.2 3.5
UC Riverside 4 - 16 7 - 23 56.9 38.9 4.2
Cal St. Bakersfield 3 - 17 7 - 23 40.1 43.8 14.4 1.7

Projected Regular Season Champion
Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
Hawaii 72.6% 32.1 33.3 6.8 0.4 0.0
UC Irvine 64.6% 25.1 32.3 6.8 0.4 0.0
UC San Diego 0.2% 0.1 0.1
UC Santa Barbara 0.5% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 11.7% 0.6 4.1 6.6 0.4 0.0
UC Davis
Cal St. Fullerton 0.3% 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly
Long Beach St.
UC Riverside
Cal St. Bakersfield


NCAA Tournament Selection and Simulation

Tournament Selection
TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
Hawaii 30.7% 30.7% 0.0% 14   0.1 6.9 18.4 5.3 0.1 69.3 0.0%
UC Irvine 30.0% 30.0% 0.0% 0.0 4.1 17.9 7.6 0.4 70.0 0.0%
UC San Diego 10.2% 10.2% 0.0% 0.0 1.7 6.1 2.2 0.1 89.8 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.5% 10.5% 0.0% 0.5 4.9 4.5 0.6 0.0 89.5 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 12.0% 12.0% 0.0% 0.3 4.3 6.1 1.2 0.0 88.0 0.0%
UC Davis 3.1% 3.1% 0.0% 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.4 0.0 96.9 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.4% 2.4% 0.0% 0.1 0.7 1.3 0.2 97.7 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.2% 1.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 98.8 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 100.0 0.0%

Conference Totals
Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 100.0
1st Round 99.8% 1.0 0.2 99.8
2nd Round 4.6% 0.0 95.4 4.6
Sweet Sixteen 0.5% 0.0 99.5 0.5
Elite Eight 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0

Tournament Simulation
TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
Hawaii 30.7% 0.0% 30.7% 1.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 30.0% 0.0% 30.0% 1.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC San Diego 10.2% 0.0% 10.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 10.5% 0.0% 10.5% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 12.0% 0.0% 12.0% 0.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.1% 0.0% 3.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 2.4% 0.1% 2.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 1.2% 0.5% 1.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%