Big West
2019-20 - 2024-25 - 2025-26


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
57 UC Irvine 56.2%   12   8 - 0 1 - 0 26 - 5 17 - 3 +9.6      +1.8 131 +7.8 11 70.9 131 +15.8 26 +7.8 5
102 UC San Diego 20.0%   6 - 2 1 - 0 21 - 9 14 - 6 +4.6      +3.0 95 +1.6 120 64.2 310 +8.0 80 +20.3 1
126 UC Santa Barbara 8.9%   5 - 2 0 - 1 18 - 11 12 - 8 +2.1      +3.2 92 -1.1 207 66.7 244 +0.8 161 -13.6 8
155 Cal St. Northridge 4.8%   5 - 3 0 - 1 16 - 13 10 - 10 +0.3      -1.2 205 +1.5 123 79.6 13 +1.1 155 -19.0 10
162 Hawaii 4.8%   3 - 2 0 - 0 15 - 12 10 - 10 -0.5      -0.9 201 +0.5 154 65.3 283 +3.2 124 0.0 6
175 UC Riverside 4.2%   4 - 4 1 - 0 15 - 15 11 - 9 -0.8      -0.7 190 -0.2 174 67.3 229 +5.3 97 +18.5 2
204 UC Davis 2.5%   3 - 4 1 - 0 14 - 15 10 - 10 -1.9      -4.7 308 +2.8 93 76.1 33 +1.8 145 +8.5 4
228 Cal Poly 0.8%   4 - 5 0 - 1 13 - 18 8 - 12 -3.7      -2.1 225 -1.6 222 82.8 4 +3.8 115 -14.1 9
244 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.8%   3 - 5 0 - 1 12 - 18 8 - 12 -4.4      -2.3 230 -2.1 244 63.0 327 -3.0 215 -2.6 7
304 Long Beach St. 0.1%   1 - 8 1 - 0 7 - 23 6 - 14 -7.4      -4.2 284 -3.2 283 63.1 324 -13.7 346 +10.7 3
307 Cal St. Fullerton 0.1%   2 - 7 0 - 1 8 - 22 5 - 15 -7.5      -5.9 332 -1.6 223 65.1 289 -7.0 281 -25.6 11





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC Irvine 1.4 71.8 18.4 6.0 2.3 0.9 0.4 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 2.5 25.5 36.6 17.4 9.2 5.3 3.0 1.6 0.8 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 4.3 5.5 15.9 21.0 17.1 13.3 10.1 7.2 4.8 2.9 1.5 0.6
Cal St. Northridge 5.3 2.6 8.3 13.2 15.8 15.8 13.7 11.3 8.3 6.0 3.4 1.6
Hawaii 5.3 3.8 10.0 13.8 14.8 13.4 12.0 10.5 8.7 6.4 4.1 2.4
UC Riverside 5.0 3.6 10.7 15.4 16.4 15.2 13.1 10.2 7.2 4.5 2.4 1.1
UC Davis 5.9 1.8 6.3 10.6 13.2 14.1 14.0 13.2 11.1 8.0 5.3 2.3
Cal Poly 7.4 0.4 1.8 4.0 6.5 9.3 12.2 14.5 15.6 15.3 12.3 8.1
Cal St. Bakersfield 7.6 0.3 1.7 4.0 6.4 8.6 11.2 12.8 14.9 15.8 14.2 10.1
Long Beach St. 8.6 0.1 0.4 1.3 2.8 4.6 7.0 10.3 14.7 19.3 23.0 16.6
Cal St. Fullerton 9.4 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.2 2.4 3.7 6.2 10.0 14.9 23.2 37.5




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC Irvine 17 - 3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.0 2.1 4.2 7.3 11.5 15.9 19.0 18.8 13.5 5.8
UC San Diego 14 - 6 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 1.1 2.2 3.9 6.1 9.5 12.5 14.6 15.6 14.2 10.7 6.2 2.4 0.5
UC Santa Barbara 12 - 8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.1 2.1 3.7 6.1 9.0 11.3 13.8 13.9 12.7 10.8 7.7 4.6 1.9 0.6 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.7 7.3 10.2 12.2 13.8 14.2 11.9 8.9 6.2 3.6 1.6 0.6 0.2 0.0
Hawaii 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.9 1.7 3.2 5.1 7.2 9.4 11.6 12.2 11.9 11.4 9.3 6.8 4.4 2.6 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0
UC Riverside 11 - 9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 1.8 3.3 6.2 8.9 12.0 13.5 13.7 12.5 10.3 7.6 5.0 2.5 1.1 0.4 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.1 0.3 0.7 2.0 4.1 6.7 9.8 11.7 13.0 13.5 12.2 10.1 6.8 4.5 2.5 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.1 0.5 1.5 3.4 6.3 9.2 12.4 13.9 14.0 13.0 10.1 7.1 4.3 2.3 1.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 8 - 12 0.1 0.7 2.0 4.2 7.2 10.5 12.8 13.5 13.3 11.3 9.3 6.8 4.2 2.3 1.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 6 - 14 0.9 3.5 7.9 12.3 15.5 15.8 14.4 11.3 8.1 4.9 2.9 1.5 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 5 - 15 1.5 4.9 9.5 13.8 15.8 15.2 13.5 10.3 6.9 4.3 2.3 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC Irvine 71.8% 60.5 9.8 1.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC San Diego 25.5% 16.9 7.4 1.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 5.5% 2.6 2.1 0.7 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 2.6% 1.2 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
Hawaii 3.8% 2.2 1.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 3.6% 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Davis 1.8% 1.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.4% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.3% 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC Irvine 56.2% 53.1% 3.1% 12   0.1 0.2 0.3 0.9 0.9 1.1 1.0 1.1 1.8 3.6 19.4 23.8 1.9 0.1 0.0 43.8 6.6%
UC San Diego 20.0% 19.9% 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 2.4 11.2 4.9 1.0 0.1 80.0 0.1%
UC Santa Barbara 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3 3.5 3.4 1.4 0.3 0.0 91.1 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.1 1.4 2.0 1.1 0.3 0.0 95.2 0.0%
Hawaii 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1.5 1.9 0.9 0.3 0.0 95.2 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.2% 4.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.3 1.5 0.9 0.3 0.1 95.8 0.0%
UC Davis 2.5% 2.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.3 0.1 97.5 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.2 0.1 0.0 99.2 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.1 99.2 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC Irvine 56.2% 1.9% 55.3% 20.1% 6.4% 1.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.1%
UC San Diego 20.0% 0.1% 19.9% 3.8% 0.9% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 8.9% 0.0% 8.9% 1.3% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.5% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 4.8% 0.0% 4.8% 0.6% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 4.2% 0.0% 4.2% 0.3% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 2.5% 0.1% 2.5% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.8% 0.0% 0.8% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.8% 0.1% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.1% 0.0% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 96.8 3.2
1st Round 99.9% 1.0 0.1 97.6 2.3
2nd Round 26.6% 0.3 73.4 26.4 0.2
Sweet Sixteen 7.9% 0.1 92.1 7.9 0.0
Elite Eight 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Final Four 0.7% 0.0 99.3 0.7
Final Game 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Champion 0.1% 0.0 99.9 0.1