Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27


Rank Team Tourney Chance Exp Seed Record Conf Record Projected Record Projected Conf Record Predictive Rating Offense Defense Pace EPR Conference EPR
90 UC San Diego 39.4%   13   10 - 2 2 - 1 24 - 6 15 - 5 +6.5      +4.1 78 +2.4 104 68.7 200 +10.0 63 +2.8 3
97 Hawaii 31.9%   9 - 3 3 - 1 21 - 7 15 - 5 +5.3      -1.2 199 +6.5 31 70.7 143 +3.1 121 +5.4 2
124 UC Irvine 16.3%   9 - 5 4 - 0 19 - 11 14 - 6 +2.2      -2.5 245 +4.7 64 70.0 162 +1.9 139 +10.1 1
172 UC Santa Barbara 4.6%   7 - 6 2 - 2 15 - 14 10 - 10 -0.9      +1.8 121 -2.6 260 64.3 308 -1.8 193 -5.3 9
185 UC Davis 3.7%   6 - 6 1 - 2 15 - 14 10 - 10 -1.6      -0.3 178 -1.2 212 70.6 144 -0.1 164 -8.3 10
204 Cal St. Northridge 2.3%   7 - 7 2 - 2 15 - 15 10 - 10 -2.6      -1.0 192 -1.6 224 80.1 12 -1.1 181 -1.7 4
251 Cal Poly 0.7%   4 - 10 2 - 2 10 - 20 8 - 12 -5.3      -3.4 268 -1.9 234 84.6 3 -5.0 247 -3.0 6
256 Cal St. Fullerton 0.4%   4 - 10 1 - 3 10 - 20 7 - 13 -5.6      -2.3 231 -3.3 282 82.9 5 -4.9 246 -8.5 11
260 Long Beach St. 0.5%   3 - 10 1 - 2 9 - 21 7 - 13 -5.7      -2.0 219 -3.7 293 66.9 244 -7.2 272 -5.2 8
289 Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2%   5 - 9 1 - 3 11 - 19 7 - 13 -7.2      -3.8 280 -3.4 284 72.1 96 -4.9 245 -4.9 7
297 UC Riverside 0.1%   4 - 9 1 - 2 10 - 20 7 - 13 -7.7      -3.0 260 -4.7 318 68.0 222 -4.0 231 -2.1 5





Upcoming Games

Date Team Points Team Points Chance Interest
Thu, Jan 8 185 UC Davis 73 172 UC Santa Barbara 76 64%   
Thu, Jan 8 204 Cal St. Northridge 90 251 Cal Poly 85 71%   
Thu, Jan 8 289 Cal St. Bakersfield 77 297 UC Riverside 74 63%   
Thu, Jan 8 260 Long Beach St. 65 124 UC Irvine 76 85%   
Thu, Jan 8 256 Cal St. Fullerton 74 90 UC San Diego 89 91%   
Sat, Jan 10 204 Cal St. Northridge 87 256 Cal St. Fullerton 88 50%   
Sat, Jan 10 251 Cal Poly 81 185 UC Davis 82 53%   
Sat, Jan 10 289 Cal St. Bakersfield 73 260 Long Beach St. 77 67%   
Sat, Jan 10 297 UC Riverside 69 90 UC San Diego 80 85%   
Sun, Jan 11 97 Hawaii 71 124 UC Irvine 65 72%   




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Conference Finish

Team Avg
Place		 1st 2nd 3rd 4th 5th 6th 7th 8th 9th 10th 11th
UC San Diego 1.8 49.7 29.5 14.4 4.3 1.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0
Hawaii 2.0 42.7 31.2 17.4 5.4 2.0 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
UC Irvine 2.6 24.5 26.7 29.6 11.3 4.7 1.9 0.8 0.3 0.2 0.0 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 5.2 1.9 5.4 12.1 23.0 19.0 14.9 10.3 6.5 4.0 2.1 0.8
UC Davis 5.6 1.4 3.9 10.9 19.1 18.1 14.4 11.4 8.5 6.0 4.2 2.1
Cal St. Northridge 5.6 1.1 3.5 9.1 19.2 20.3 16.0 11.9 8.6 5.6 3.2 1.6
Cal Poly 7.1 0.1 0.9 3.4 8.8 12.1 14.5 15.9 15.4 13.0 10.0 5.7
Cal St. Fullerton 8.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 4.9 8.2 11.3 13.4 15.6 16.2 15.5 13.5
Long Beach St. 7.7 0.1 0.7 2.3 6.1 9.7 11.9 13.8 14.6 15.2 13.8 11.9
Cal St. Bakersfield 8.5 0.0 0.1 0.7 3.0 5.8 8.9 12.0 14.5 16.1 18.7 20.2
UC Riverside 8.5 0.1 0.2 0.9 3.5 6.1 8.8 11.0 13.6 16.4 18.3 21.2




Projected Conference Wins

Team Avg Record 0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0
UC San Diego 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.8 2.0 4.5 8.4 13.4 18.1 20.2 17.6 11.1 3.4
Hawaii 15 - 5 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.6 1.3 3.0 6.0 10.4 14.6 18.0 19.5 15.0 8.7 2.7
UC Irvine 14 - 6 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.6 3.6 7.3 11.2 15.3 17.4 16.7 13.0 7.9 3.7 1.2 0.2
UC Santa Barbara 10 - 10 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 3.3 6.7 10.7 14.5 16.6 15.9 13.2 8.8 5.3 2.3 0.8 0.2 0.0
UC Davis 10 - 10 0.0 0.0 0.4 1.1 2.8 5.3 8.7 12.2 14.9 15.0 13.9 11.2 7.5 4.1 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Northridge 10 - 10 0.0 0.2 0.7 2.1 5.0 8.6 13.0 15.5 17.0 14.5 10.9 7.0 3.6 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal Poly 8 - 12 0.2 1.2 3.9 7.8 12.3 15.8 17.5 15.3 11.3 7.7 4.2 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 7 - 13 0.2 1.1 3.7 7.8 12.0 15.8 17.6 14.9 12.3 7.7 4.0 2.0 0.6 0.2 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 7 - 13 0.2 1.0 3.0 6.5 11.0 15.2 16.1 15.2 12.4 9.1 5.6 2.7 1.4 0.4 0.1 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 7 - 13 0.4 2.0 5.6 10.8 15.1 17.3 16.3 13.7 9.2 5.7 2.6 0.9 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Riverside 7 - 13 0.5 2.4 6.1 10.9 14.7 17.3 16.2 12.7 9.0 5.6 2.9 1.2 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.0 0.0




Projected Conference Champion

Team Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
UC San Diego 49.7% 35.1 12.5 1.9 0.1
Hawaii 42.7% 28.7 11.9 1.9 0.1 0.0
UC Irvine 24.5% 15.1 7.5 1.8 0.1 0.0
UC Santa Barbara 1.9% 0.8 0.7 0.3 0.1 0.0
UC Davis 1.4% 0.5 0.7 0.2 0.1
Cal St. Northridge 1.1% 0.4 0.4 0.3 0.0 0.0
Cal Poly 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Fullerton 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
Long Beach St. 0.1% 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.0% 0.0 0.0
UC Riverside 0.1% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0


NCAA Tournament Selection

TeamTourney BidAutoAt-LargeExp Seed 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
UC San Diego 39.4% 39.3% 0.1% 13   0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.4 6.9 22.0 8.6 0.8 0.1 60.6 0.2%
Hawaii 31.9% 31.9% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 12.0 12.8 4.2 0.3 68.1 0.0%
UC Irvine 16.3% 16.3% 0.0% 0.0 0.2 3.2 7.5 4.6 0.8 0.0 83.7 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 4.6% 4.6% 0.0% 0.3 1.5 1.8 0.9 0.1 95.4 0.0%
UC Davis 3.7% 3.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.3 1.3 1.4 0.6 0.1 96.3 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.3% 2.3% 0.0% 0.1 0.5 0.9 0.7 0.1 97.7 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.7% 0.7% 0.0% 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.3 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 99.6 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.5% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.5 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.8 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 99.9 0.0%



NCAA Tournament Simulation

TeamTourney
Bid		First
Four		First
Round		Second
Round		Sweet
Sixteen		Elite
Eight		Final
Four		Final
Game		Champion
UC San Diego 39.4% 0.1% 39.3% 6.6% 1.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Hawaii 31.9% 0.0% 31.9% 4.3% 0.7% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Irvine 16.3% 0.0% 16.3% 1.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Santa Barbara 4.6% 0.0% 4.6% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Davis 3.7% 0.0% 3.7% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Northridge 2.3% 0.0% 2.3% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal Poly 0.7% 0.2% 0.6% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Fullerton 0.4% 0.1% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Long Beach St. 0.5% 0.2% 0.4% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Cal St. Bakersfield 0.2% 0.1% 0.2% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
UC Riverside 0.1% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%



Number of Teams
One or MoreAvg # 0 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14
Tourney Bid 100.0% 1.0 99.9 0.1
1st Round 99.7% 1.0 0.3 99.7 0.0
2nd Round 12.5% 0.1 87.5 12.5
Sweet Sixteen 2.1% 0.0 97.9 2.1
Elite Eight 0.2% 0.0 99.8 0.2
Final Four 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Final Game 0.0% 0.0 100.0 0.0
Champion 0.0% 0.0 100.0