UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-1.2#175
Expected Predictive Rating+1.6#142
Pace70.1#165
Improvement-0.6#225

Offense
Total Offense-0.3#174
First Shot+3.0#88
After Offensive Rebound-3.3#346
Layup/Dunks+0.7#161
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.0#117
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.2#197
Freethrows+1.6#90
Improvement+2.7#23

Defense
Total Defense-0.9#194
First Shot-1.8#229
After Offensive Rebounds+0.9#112
Layups/Dunks-0.2#187
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.6#58
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#267
Freethrows-1.0#259
Improvement-3.3#351
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 4.8% 5.8% 2.8%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.4 13.8
.500 or above 66.0% 73.9% 49.1%
.500 or above in Conference 63.5% 71.7% 46.2%
Conference Champion 2.9% 3.8% 1.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.9% 1.6% 5.8%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round4.8% 5.8% 2.8%
Second Round0.3% 0.3% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Northridge (Home) - 68.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 21 - 32 - 5
Quad 34 - 66 - 11
Quad 410 - 416 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Wed, Nov 5 155 North Dakota St. W 80-68 56%     1 - 0 +9.3 +7.2 +2.3
  Sun, Nov 9 258 @Portland L 63-67 55%     1 - 1 -6.5 -9.1 +2.6
  Fri, Nov 14 278 Sacramento St. W 77-73 78%     2 - 1 -5.3 -2.2 -3.2
  Tue, Nov 18 89 @Nevada W 75-71 16%     3 - 1 +13.3 +1.1 +12.0
  Fri, Nov 21 83 @Colorado L 79-95 16%     3 - 2 -6.3 +8.7 -15.1
  Mon, Nov 24 305 Louisiana W 77-56 82%     4 - 2 +9.9 +8.0 +3.4
  Thu, Dec 4 108 @Hawaii L 69-75 23%     4 - 3 0 - 1 +0.7 +2.9 -2.1
  Sat, Dec 13 56 @Oregon L 62-104 11%     4 - 4 -29.6 -8.1 -20.1
  Wed, Dec 17 121 Seattle L 78-79 46%     4 - 5 -1.2 +4.3 -5.5
  Sun, Dec 21 170 @Idaho St. W 93-83 38%     5 - 5 +12.0 +25.8 -13.2
  Thu, Jan 1 206 Cal St. Northridge W 83-78 68%    
  Sat, Jan 3 306 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-70 83%    
  Thu, Jan 8 148 @UC Santa Barbara L 72-77 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 257 @Cal Poly W 83-82 55%    
  Thu, Jan 15 260 Cal St. Fullerton W 85-78 75%    
  Sat, Jan 17 134 UC Irvine W 72-71 50%    
  Thu, Jan 22 81 UC San Diego L 74-79 32%    
  Sat, Jan 24 270 UC Riverside W 79-71 76%    
  Thu, Jan 29 206 @Cal St. Northridge L 80-81 46%    
  Sat, Jan 31 306 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-73 64%    
  Thu, Feb 5 148 UC Santa Barbara W 75-74 54%    
  Sat, Feb 7 257 Cal Poly W 86-79 75%    
  Thu, Feb 12 81 @UC San Diego L 71-82 16%    
  Sat, Feb 14 276 Long Beach St. W 79-71 77%    
  Thu, Feb 19 260 @Cal St. Fullerton W 82-81 55%    
  Sat, Feb 21 270 @UC Riverside W 76-74 56%    
  Thu, Feb 26 108 Hawaii L 70-72 44%    
  Thu, Mar 5 276 @Long Beach St. W 76-74 57%    
  Sat, Mar 7 134 @UC Irvine L 68-74 30%    
Projected Record 15 - 14 10 - 10




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.3 0.8 0.9 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.3 2.7 2.1 0.9 0.1 7.6 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.9 3.3 4.7 3.2 0.9 0.1 13.1 3rd
4th 0.2 1.7 5.3 6.3 3.1 0.7 0.0 17.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 2.3 6.2 6.5 2.4 0.4 0.0 18.1 5th
6th 0.2 2.1 5.8 4.8 1.5 0.2 0.0 14.6 6th
7th 0.1 1.5 4.2 3.3 0.8 0.0 9.9 7th
8th 0.1 1.0 3.0 2.6 0.6 0.0 7.3 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.0 1.7 0.4 0.0 4.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.3 0.0 3.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 1.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.4 1.0 2.3 4.3 6.7 9.5 12.2 13.5 14.2 12.6 9.6 6.9 3.9 1.9 0.7 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.0    0.0
18-2 100.0% 0.2    0.1 0.0
17-3 81.1% 0.6    0.4 0.2 0.0
16-4 47.1% 0.9    0.5 0.4 0.1
15-5 21.7% 0.8    0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0
14-6 4.4% 0.3    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.8% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 2.9% 2.9 1.4 1.1 0.3 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.2% 48.1% 48.1% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1
17-3 0.7% 25.8% 25.8% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.5
16-4 1.9% 24.1% 24.1% 12.7 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.5
15-5 3.9% 16.9% 16.9% 13.0 0.1 0.4 0.1 3.2
14-6 6.9% 14.3% 14.3% 13.2 0.1 0.6 0.3 0.0 5.9
13-7 9.6% 8.5% 8.5% 13.5 0.0 0.4 0.3 0.1 8.8
12-8 12.6% 5.7% 5.7% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 11.9
11-9 14.2% 3.1% 3.1% 14.1 0.1 0.2 0.1 13.7
10-10 13.5% 1.9% 1.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 13.3
9-11 12.2% 0.9% 0.9% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 12.1
8-12 9.5% 0.8% 0.8% 15.6 0.0 0.0 9.5
7-13 6.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 6.7
6-14 4.3% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 4.3
5-15 2.3% 2.3
4-16 1.0% 1.0
3-17 0.4% 0.4
2-18 0.1% 0.1
1-19 0.0% 0.0
0-20
Total 100% 4.8% 4.8% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.6 2.0 1.5 0.6 0.1 95.2 0.0%