UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-0.1#174
Expected Predictive Rating-0.5#179
Pace75.0#35
Improvement-0.1#200

Offense
Total Offense+0.0#170
First Shot-0.8#210
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#119
Layup/Dunks-0.2#181
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.9#115
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.4#273
Freethrows+0.9#109
Improvement+0.4#116

Defense
Total Defense-0.1#176
First Shot-0.8#202
After Offensive Rebounds+0.7#111
Layups/Dunks-1.5#247
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#118
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#173
Freethrows-0.4#220
Improvement-0.5#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 6.2% 7.1% 5.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.8 14.6 15.1
.500 or above 84.5% 93.3% 74.3%
.500 or above in Conference 84.5% 93.3% 74.3%
Conference Champion 1.1% 1.9% 0.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.6% 0.4% 0.9%
First Round6.0% 6.9% 4.9%
Second Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Hawaii (Home) - 53.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 1
Quad 21 - 41 - 6
Quad 34 - 64 - 12
Quad 412 - 216 - 14


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 224   @ California W 75-65 51%     1 - 0 +9.8 +3.0 +6.8
  Nov 12, 2022 91   @ Loyola Marymount L 75-85 22%     1 - 1 -1.8 +2.2 -3.5
  Nov 18, 2022 311   Arkansas St. W 75-60 84%     2 - 1 +4.2 -1.6 +6.0
  Nov 22, 2022 219   Sacramento St. W 82-71 59%     3 - 1 +8.5 +4.0 +4.1
  Nov 26, 2022 214   @ Wisconsin-Milwaukee L 85-87 48%     3 - 2 -1.5 +2.8 -4.1
  Nov 27, 2022 251   Southeast Missouri St. W 73-71 67%     4 - 2 -2.7 -9.7 +6.7
  Nov 28, 2022 276   Boston University W 81-70 OT 71%     5 - 2 +5.1 -6.3 +9.7
  Dec 01, 2022 208   Pacific L 72-74 67%     5 - 3 -6.5 -8.2 +1.7
  Dec 17, 2022 161   @ Eastern Washington L 68-79 38%     5 - 4 -8.0 -8.8 +1.5
  Dec 21, 2022 5   @ UCLA L 54-81 4%     5 - 5 -6.2 -7.2 +1.1
  Dec 29, 2022 134   @ Hawaii L 66-74 33%     5 - 6 0 - 1 -3.4 -2.6 -0.8
  Jan 05, 2023 100   UC Irvine L 83-88 42%     5 - 7 0 - 2 -3.1 +5.7 -8.5
  Jan 07, 2023 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-48 84%     6 - 7 1 - 2 +8.2 -3.3 +13.0
  Jan 11, 2023 328   @ Cal St. Northridge W 62-54 74%     7 - 7 2 - 2 +1.2 -2.3 +4.8
  Jan 14, 2023 154   Cal St. Fullerton W 83-79 58%     8 - 7 3 - 2 +1.9 +2.7 -1.3
  Jan 16, 2023 262   @ UC San Diego W 78-70 60%     9 - 7 4 - 2 +5.3 +8.5 -2.7
  Jan 19, 2023 158   UC Riverside L 72-74 59%     9 - 8 4 - 3 -4.3 +1.3 -5.8
  Jan 21, 2023 298   Cal Poly W 65-63 83%     10 - 8 5 - 3 -8.3 -1.8 -6.2
  Jan 26, 2023 308   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 79-58 69%     11 - 8 6 - 3 +15.7 +20.1 -0.7
  Jan 28, 2023 165   @ Long Beach St. L 72-75 38%     11 - 9 6 - 4 -0.1 -5.9 +6.1
  Feb 02, 2023 134   Hawaii W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 09, 2023 158   @ UC Riverside L 71-74 37%    
  Feb 11, 2023 101   @ UC Santa Barbara L 67-74 23%    
  Feb 15, 2023 328   Cal St. Northridge W 75-63 88%    
  Feb 18, 2023 100   @ UC Irvine L 71-78 23%    
  Feb 20, 2023 262   UC San Diego W 75-67 78%    
  Feb 23, 2023 154   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 68-71 36%    
  Feb 25, 2023 298   @ Cal Poly W 69-64 66%    
  Mar 02, 2023 101   UC Santa Barbara L 69-71 44%    
  Mar 04, 2023 165   Long Beach St. W 81-79 60%    
Projected Record 16 - 14 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 1.1 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 2.4 0.5 0.0 3.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.5 5.5 2.1 0.1 9.2 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 7.9 5.3 0.3 14.9 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 9.0 9.1 1.0 0.0 20.6 5th
6th 0.1 1.8 8.9 11.3 2.2 0.0 24.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 3.1 8.6 9.7 2.7 0.1 24.5 7th
8th 0.1 0.3 0.7 0.4 0.0 1.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 0.7 3.9 10.8 20.1 24.5 20.9 12.7 5.1 1.1 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 95.7% 0.1    0.1 0.1
15-5 51.7% 0.6    0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0
14-6 7.2% 0.4    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.1% 1.1 0.3 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.1% 13.0% 13.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 1.1% 13.6% 13.6% 13.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.0
14-6 5.1% 10.9% 10.9% 13.9 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 4.6
13-7 12.7% 9.1% 9.1% 14.2 0.1 0.7 0.3 0.0 11.6
12-8 20.9% 7.1% 7.1% 14.7 0.0 0.4 1.0 0.1 19.4
11-9 24.5% 6.1% 6.1% 15.0 0.2 1.2 0.2 23.0
10-10 20.1% 4.5% 4.5% 15.7 0.3 0.6 19.2
9-11 10.8% 3.0% 3.0% 16.0 0.0 0.3 10.5
8-12 3.9% 2.0% 2.0% 16.0 0.1 3.8
7-13 0.7% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 0.7
6-14 0.1% 5.9% 5.9% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 6.2% 6.2% 0.0% 14.8 0.0 0.4 1.7 2.8 1.3 93.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 13.0% 13.1 1.4 8.7 2.9
Lose Out 0.1% 5.9% 16.0 5.9