UC Davis
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-2.1#212
Expected Predictive Rating-1.0#194
Pace77.1#33
Improvement-4.2#354

Offense
Total Offense-2.4#246
First Shot-1.9#235
After Offensive Rebound-0.5#213
Layup/Dunks-0.1#175
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#187
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#290
Freethrows+2.4#49
Improvement-2.1#336

Defense
Total Defense+0.3#161
First Shot+2.6#97
After Offensive Rebounds-2.3#310
Layups/Dunks+2.1#105
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#185
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#74
Freethrows-2.3#304
Improvement-2.1#334
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 5.0% 6.4% 3.1%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.6 14.5 14.8
.500 or above 44.1% 55.4% 29.1%
.500 or above in Conference 51.9% 57.5% 44.5%
Conference Champion 4.0% 5.0% 2.6%
Last Place in Conference 6.0% 4.6% 7.8%
First Four0.5% 0.5% 0.4%
First Round4.8% 6.2% 3.0%
Second Round0.3% 0.5% 0.1%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pacific (Home) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 21 - 21 - 3
Quad 33 - 75 - 10
Quad 49 - 514 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 46   @ Utah St. W 72-69 9%     1 - 0 +15.7 -1.3 +16.7
  Nov 12, 2021 203   Eastern Washington W 84-76 60%     2 - 0 +3.2 -3.9 +5.9
  Nov 17, 2021 235   @ Pepperdine L 67-72 45%     2 - 1 -5.7 -6.3 +0.7
  Nov 23, 2021 295   Sacramento St. L 63-75 69%     2 - 2 -19.3 -18.4 +0.3
  Dec 01, 2021 187   Pacific W 71-69 57%    
  Dec 14, 2021 127   @ Oregon St. L 65-73 24%    
  Dec 19, 2021 187   @ Pacific L 68-72 37%    
  Dec 22, 2021 251   Portland W 77-71 69%    
  Dec 28, 2021 139   UC Riverside L 67-68 46%    
  Dec 31, 2021 188   @ Hawaii L 71-75 36%    
  Jan 06, 2022 74   UC Irvine L 65-71 29%    
  Jan 08, 2022 193   UC San Diego W 74-72 57%    
  Jan 13, 2022 206   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 66-69 39%    
  Jan 15, 2022 316   @ Cal Poly W 70-66 62%    
  Jan 20, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-68 52%    
  Jan 22, 2022 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 67-75 24%    
  Jan 27, 2022 208   Cal St. Fullerton W 74-71 61%    
  Jan 29, 2022 297   Long Beach St. W 83-75 77%    
  Feb 01, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside L 64-71 26%    
  Feb 05, 2022 188   Hawaii W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 10, 2022 193   @ UC San Diego L 71-75 36%    
  Feb 12, 2022 74   @ UC Irvine L 62-74 15%    
  Feb 17, 2022 316   Cal Poly W 73-63 79%    
  Feb 19, 2022 206   Cal St. Bakersfield W 69-66 60%    
  Feb 24, 2022 118   UC Santa Barbara L 70-72 42%    
  Feb 26, 2022 271   Cal St. Northridge W 72-65 74%    
  Mar 03, 2022 297   @ Long Beach St. W 80-78 56%    
  Mar 05, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 71-74 39%    
Projected Record 14 - 14 10 - 10





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.8 1.1 0.5 0.1 4.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.4 1.6 2.6 1.7 0.9 0.2 7.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 2.8 3.6 2.0 0.3 0.1 9.7 3rd
4th 0.1 1.1 4.0 4.4 1.5 0.3 0.0 11.4 4th
5th 0.1 1.5 4.7 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 13.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 4.5 4.6 1.6 0.2 0.0 12.2 6th
7th 0.1 1.6 4.4 4.5 1.4 0.3 0.0 12.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 1.7 4.0 3.8 1.4 0.1 11.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.3 1.5 3.5 2.8 0.7 0.1 8.8 9th
10th 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 2.4 1.5 0.5 0.0 6.8 10th
11th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.7 0.9 0.4 0.3 0.0 3.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.2 0.7 1.4 2.9 4.5 7.0 9.0 10.4 12.0 12.0 11.5 9.4 6.9 5.6 2.9 1.7 1.3 0.5 0.1 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 0.1    0.1
18-2 100.0% 0.5    0.4 0.1
17-3 83.9% 1.1    0.8 0.3
16-4 44.4% 0.8    0.5 0.3 0.0
15-5 26.9% 0.8    0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0
14-6 11.4% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.6% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 4.0% 4.0 2.1 1.3 0.5 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 0.1% 77.4% 77.4% 13.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
18-2 0.5% 35.3% 35.3% 12.3 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.3
17-3 1.3% 19.0% 19.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 1.1
16-4 1.7% 25.6% 25.6% 13.5 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.3
15-5 2.9% 19.2% 19.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.1 2.3
14-6 5.6% 12.2% 12.2% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.2 0.0 4.9
13-7 6.9% 11.1% 11.1% 15.0 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.2 6.2
12-8 9.4% 5.1% 5.1% 15.1 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.1 8.9
11-9 11.5% 5.5% 5.5% 15.3 0.0 0.4 0.2 10.9
10-10 12.0% 3.8% 3.8% 15.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 11.6
9-11 12.0% 2.1% 2.1% 15.6 0.1 0.1 11.8
8-12 10.4% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.1 10.2
7-13 9.0% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 8.9
6-14 7.0% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 7.0
5-15 4.5% 4.5
4-16 2.9% 2.9
3-17 1.4% 1.4
2-18 0.7% 0.7
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 5.0% 5.0% 0.0% 14.6 0.1 0.2 0.7 1.0 1.9 1.1 95.0 0.0%