Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.8 #264
Expected Predictive Rating -5.4 #252
Pace 83.6 #1
Improvement +0.5 #160

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #200 C C- F+ C+ B+
Defense #310 D+ D+ C- C+ D+

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 37% #212 1.14 #197 -1.0 #216
2 Pt. Jumpers 7% #361 0.52 #365 -5.9 #365
Three Pointers 55% #1 1.03 #161 +7.8 #13
1st FG Attempt 1.04 #149 +0.8 #150
Freethrows 0.31 #156 77% #39 0.24 #107
Second Chance 30.6% #176 0.96 #277 0.30 #216
Turnovers 20.9% #348
Total Offense -1.2 #200

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #187 1.25 #298 -1.7 #239
2 Pt. Jumpers 16% #299 0.82 #277 +1.1 #107
Three Pointers 45% #65 1.04 #216 -2.5 #298
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #283 -3.2 #283
Freethrows 0.29 #145 73% #217 0.21 #144
Second Chance 32.2% #247 1.11 #296 0.36 #293
Turnovers 16.0% #236
Total Defense -4.6 #310

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 3.2% #18 1.0% #269
Shot Type Accuracy Effect -1.6% #200 5.2% #278
Possession Length 14.5 #6 17.1 #168
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.18 #147 0.20 #278
Improvement +4.1 #26 -3.6 #336

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 7.4% 18.6% 3.8%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 2.3% 0.4% 2.9%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Davis (Away) - 24.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 20 - 2
Quad 22 - 42 - 6
Quad 34 - 86 - 14
Quad 44 - 710 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Mon, Nov 3 46 @USC L 64 - 94 4% -12  0 - 1 -15 -10 C- C- F -0 C+ B+ C
 Sat, Nov 8 131 @Seattle W 73 - 71 16% -4  1 - 1 +7 +3 B C F +4 D+ C+ A-
 Wed, Nov 12 102 @Colorado St. L 79 - 93 11% -9  1 - 2 -6 +2 B- F+ C- -7 C- B- F
 Fri, Nov 14 171 @Montana L 82 - 90 22% -7  1 - 3 -6 +0 C C- D+ -5 B+ D- F
 Thu, Nov 20 107 @Utah W 92 - 85 12% +7  2 - 3 +14 +6 A+ C F +7 B- A+ B+
 Mon, Nov 24 306 @Northern Arizona L 87 - 93 49% -0  2 - 4 -12 -2 C+ F F+ -9 F+ D- D+
 Tue, Nov 25 233 Southeast Missouri St. L 68 - 84 43% -3  2 - 5 -20 -10 F A- F -10 C- D+ D+
 Thu, Dec 4 217 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94 - 91 30% +5  3 - 5 1 - 0 +3 +5 A+ F F -3 D+ D- B+
 Sat, Dec 6 291 UC Riverside L 84 - 88 67% -7  3 - 6 1 - 1 -14 +5 B F+ D -20 D- F F
 Tue, Dec 16 157 Montana St. L 80 - 83 40% -3  3 - 7 -6 +4 F A+ C+ -10 B+ F F
 Fri, Dec 19 33 @UCLA L 87 - 108 3% -7  3 - 8 -4 +13 A+ C+ F -14 F A- D-
 Sun, Dec 21 187 Idaho L 80 - 83 OT 46% -7  3 - 9 -8 -8 F+ F D+ +0 B C- C+
 Thu, Jan 1 142 UC San Diego W 67 - 65 35% -2  4 - 9 2 - 1 +0 -2 D C+ B+ +2 A+ F C
 Sat, Jan 3 251 @Long Beach St. L 66 - 74 36% -10  4 - 10 2 - 2 -10 -9 F C B- -1 C- C C-
 Thu, Jan 8 191 @Cal St. Northridge L 90 - 95 25% +3  4 - 11 2 - 3 -4 +6 C C C -9 F D- C-
 Sat, Jan 10 184 UC Davis W 84 - 78 45% -6  5 - 11 3 - 3 +2 +4 D C A -3 B+ C D-
 Thu, Jan 15 99 Hawaii L 66 - 86 23% -8  5 - 12 3 - 4 -18 -9 C+ C+ F -7 D C+ C
 Thu, Jan 22 135 @UC Santa Barbara L 67 - 107 17% -24  5 - 13 3 - 5 -36 -3 C D D+ -34 F F F
 Sat, Jan 24 217 Cal St. Fullerton L 78 - 93 52% -8  5 - 14 3 - 6 -21 -1 C B+ F -20 F C C-
 Thu, Jan 29 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 104 - 79 54% +15  6 - 14 4 - 6 +18 +18 A+ C- F -2 F+ F B
 Sat, Jan 31 291 @UC Riverside W 94 - 87 45% +2  7 - 14 5 - 6 +3 +14 B+ C+ C- -12 F+ F A-
 Thu, Feb 5 191 Cal St. Northridge L 96 - 97 46% -5  7 - 15 5 - 7 -6 +9 A+ C D- -15 F F D+
 Sat, Feb 7 184 @UC Davis L 82 - 89 25%
 Thu, Feb 12 115 UC Irvine L 76 - 82 29%
 Sat, Feb 14 135 UC Santa Barbara L 80 - 84 34%
 Fri, Feb 20 99 @Hawaii L 75 - 89 10%
 Thu, Feb 26 251 Long Beach St. W 84 - 82 58%
 Sat, Feb 28 142 @UC San Diego L 76 - 86 18%
 Thu, Mar 5 115 @UC Irvine L 73 - 85 13%
 Sat, Mar 7 320 Cal St. Bakersfield W 89 - 82 75%
Totals 10 - 20 8 - 12 -6 -1 C C- F+ -5 D+ D+ C-




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 3rd
4th 0.3 0.5 0.0 0.9 4th
5th 0.2 1.5 0.5 0.0 2.2 5th
6th 0.3 2.7 2.4 0.1 5.6 6th
7th 0.8 6.1 8.2 1.6 0.0 16.7 7th
8th 0.0 2.7 15.7 18.8 4.7 0.1 42.1 8th
9th 1.2 10.6 11.8 2.8 0.1 26.5 9th
10th 1.8 2.8 0.6 0.0 5.3 10th
11th 0.4 0.1 0.4 11th
Total 3.4 16.2 28.9 28.1 15.9 5.9 1.3 0.2 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 5.3% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.0% 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0
12-8 0.2% 0.0 0.2
11-9 1.3% 1.3
10-10 5.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.0 5.9
9-11 15.9% 0.4% 0.4% 16.0 0.1 15.9
8-12 28.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 28.0
7-13 28.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 28.9
6-14 16.2% 16.2
5-15 3.4% 3.4
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.3% 0.3% 0.0% 15.9 99.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.4%