Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating-5.3#259
Expected Predictive Rating-5.9#251
Pace86.3#2
Improvement-0.2#201

Offense
Total Offense-2.5#231
First Shot-1.5#216
After Offensive Rebound-1.0#245
Layup/Dunks-4.8#330
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.0#358
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.0#30
Freethrows+1.2#103
Improvement+1.7#71

Defense
Total Defense-2.9#273
First Shot-3.5#300
After Offensive Rebounds+0.6#152
Layups/Dunks-1.5#238
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.2#94
3 Pt Jumpshots-1.7#252
Freethrows-1.5#283
Improvement-1.9#313
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.7% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.1 14.9 15.3
.500 or above 2.7% 7.2% 1.7%
.500 or above in Conference 24.7% 44.3% 20.1%
Conference Champion 0.3% 1.0% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 12.9% 4.6% 14.8%
First Four0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
First Round0.6% 1.5% 0.4%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Home) - 19.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 22 - 32 - 6
Quad 33 - 75 - 13
Quad 45 - 810 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Mon, Nov 3 39 @USC L 64-94 4%     0 - 1 -14.4 -11.9 +2.1
  Sat, Nov 8 111 @Seattle W 73-71 13%     1 - 1 +8.7 -0.1 +8.6
  Wed, Nov 12 92 @Colorado St. L 79-93 9%     1 - 2 -4.9 +0.6 -4.6
  Fri, Nov 14 207 @Montana L 82-90 31%     1 - 3 -8.2 -2.9 -4.2
  Thu, Nov 20 112 @Utah W 92-85 13%     2 - 3 +13.6 +5.3 +7.2
  Mon, Nov 24 288 @Northern Arizona L 87-93 44%     2 - 4 -9.7 +3.3 -12.3
  Tue, Nov 25 211 Southeast Missouri St. L 68-84 42%     2 - 5 -19.4 -10.6 -7.7
  Thu, Dec 4 243 @Cal St. Fullerton W 94-91 36%     3 - 5 1 - 0 +1.3 +3.2 -2.4
  Sat, Dec 6 271 UC Riverside L 84-88 63%     3 - 6 1 - 1 -12.8 +4.1 -16.8
  Tue, Dec 16 167 Montana St. L 80-83 43%     3 - 7 -6.6 +4.1 -10.7
  Fri, Dec 19 30 @UCLA L 87-108 3%     3 - 8 -3.9 +11.5 -13.1
  Sun, Dec 21 171 Idaho L 80-83 OT 44%     3 - 9 -6.7 -8.8 +2.6
  Thu, Jan 1 84 UC San Diego L 79-88 19%    
  Sat, Jan 3 276 @Long Beach St. L 81-83 42%    
  Thu, Jan 8 219 @Cal St. Northridge L 86-91 33%    
  Sat, Jan 10 175 UC Davis L 82-83 46%    
  Thu, Jan 15 109 Hawaii L 76-82 29%    
  Thu, Jan 22 158 @UC Santa Barbara L 77-86 22%    
  Sat, Jan 24 243 Cal St. Fullerton W 92-90 59%    
  Thu, Jan 29 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 84-83 52%    
  Sat, Jan 31 271 @UC Riverside L 81-84 40%    
  Thu, Feb 5 219 Cal St. Northridge W 89-88 55%    
  Sat, Feb 7 175 @UC Davis L 79-86 26%    
  Thu, Feb 12 143 UC Irvine L 76-80 37%    
  Sat, Feb 14 158 UC Santa Barbara L 80-83 41%    
  Fri, Feb 20 109 @Hawaii L 73-85 14%    
  Thu, Feb 26 276 Long Beach St. W 84-80 63%    
  Sat, Feb 28 84 @UC San Diego L 76-91 9%    
  Thu, Mar 5 143 @UC Irvine L 73-83 20%    
  Sat, Mar 7 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 87-81 72%    
Projected Record 10 - 20 8 - 12




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 1st
2nd 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.3 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.2 1.1 0.4 0.1 3.4 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.3 2.6 1.8 0.5 0.0 6.4 4th
5th 0.2 2.0 4.3 2.8 0.7 0.1 0.0 10.0 5th
6th 0.2 2.7 5.7 3.9 0.8 0.0 13.4 6th
7th 0.4 3.1 6.6 4.7 0.8 0.1 15.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 3.0 7.1 4.6 0.9 0.0 16.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.4 3.0 6.4 4.3 0.8 0.1 14.9 9th
10th 0.1 0.7 2.7 4.7 2.9 0.6 0.0 0.0 11.6 10th
11th 0.2 0.8 1.9 2.5 1.4 0.2 0.0 7.0 11th
Total 0.2 0.9 2.6 5.5 9.4 12.9 15.4 14.9 13.5 10.4 6.8 4.0 2.1 1.0 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0%
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
16-4 72.4% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
15-5 30.3% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 5.2% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 1.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.1% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.3% 0.3 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3 0.0% 0.0 0.0
16-4 0.1% 27.6% 27.6% 13.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
15-5 0.3% 18.2% 18.2% 13.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.3
14-6 1.0% 9.0% 9.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.9
13-7 2.1% 4.8% 4.8% 14.7 0.0 0.1 2.0
12-8 4.0% 3.4% 3.4% 15.2 0.1 0.0 3.8
11-9 6.8% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.1 6.7
10-10 10.4% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 10.3
9-11 13.5% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.1 13.5
8-12 14.9% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 14.8
7-13 15.4% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 15.4
6-14 12.9% 12.9
5-15 9.4% 9.4
4-16 5.5% 5.5
3-17 2.6% 2.6
2-18 0.9% 0.9
1-19 0.2% 0.2
0-20
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.4 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.2%