Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-8.8#316
Expected Predictive Rating-14.9#338
Pace63.5#312
Improvement-0.5#219

Offense
Total Offense-6.0#328
First Shot-9.8#356
After Offensive Rebound+3.8#11
Layup/Dunks-3.4#293
2 Pt Jumpshots-5.0#356
3 Pt Jumpshots-3.9#294
Freethrows+2.5#42
Improvement+0.0#176

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#270
First Shot+0.5#152
After Offensive Rebounds-3.3#332
Layups/Dunks+5.2#31
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.2#180
3 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#201
Freethrows-4.4#348
Improvement-0.5#231
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.5% 0.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.6 15.0 15.8
.500 or above 1.3% 3.3% 0.9%
.500 or above in Conference 7.6% 12.0% 6.6%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 45.1% 35.8% 47.2%
First Four0.2% 0.1% 0.3%
First Round0.3% 0.4% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: California Baptist (Away) - 18.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 45 - 97 - 24


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 12, 2021 182   North Dakota St. L 57-60 32%     0 - 1 -7.0 -11.3 +3.9
  Nov 15, 2021 295   Sacramento St. L 57-58 56%     0 - 2 -11.3 -10.7 -0.7
  Nov 19, 2021 82   @ Santa Clara L 57-87 5%     0 - 3 -20.3 -12.1 -8.2
  Nov 22, 2021 233   Nicholls St. L 72-75 OT 30%     0 - 4 -6.5 -8.0 +1.7
  Nov 24, 2021 351   Idaho W 67-63 72%     1 - 4 -10.8 -12.0 +1.3
  Dec 02, 2021 217   @ California Baptist L 65-74 18%    
  Dec 05, 2021 153   @ San Diego L 58-71 12%    
  Dec 11, 2021 269   @ Portland St. L 62-68 30%    
  Dec 13, 2021 251   @ Portland L 63-70 26%    
  Dec 17, 2021 129   @ Fresno St. L 55-69 9%    
  Dec 22, 2021 8   @ UCLA L 54-83 0.2%   
  Dec 30, 2021 297   Long Beach St. W 72-71 55%    
  Jan 01, 2022 208   Cal St. Fullerton L 64-68 35%    
  Jan 06, 2022 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 57-72 9%    
  Jan 08, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge L 59-65 30%    
  Jan 13, 2022 139   UC Riverside L 57-65 25%    
  Jan 15, 2022 212   UC Davis L 66-70 38%    
  Jan 18, 2022 206   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 57-67 19%    
  Jan 22, 2022 188   Hawaii L 64-69 35%    
  Jan 27, 2022 193   @ UC San Diego L 61-71 17%    
  Jan 29, 2022 74   @ UC Irvine L 52-71 6%    
  Feb 03, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 61-71 20%    
  Feb 05, 2022 297   @ Long Beach St. L 69-74 34%    
  Feb 10, 2022 271   Cal St. Northridge W 63-62 51%    
  Feb 12, 2022 118   UC Santa Barbara L 60-69 22%    
  Feb 17, 2022 212   @ UC Davis L 63-73 21%    
  Feb 19, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside L 54-68 11%    
  Feb 22, 2022 206   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-64 37%    
  Feb 25, 2022 188   @ Hawaii L 61-72 18%    
  Mar 03, 2022 74   UC Irvine L 55-68 13%    
  Mar 05, 2022 193   UC San Diego L 64-68 34%    
Projected Record 7 - 24 5 - 15





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.4 2nd
3rd 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.0 0.8 3rd
4th 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.6 0.1 0.0 0.0 1.9 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.3 0.6 0.2 0.1 2.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.9 2.1 1.5 0.2 0.0 4.7 6th
7th 0.1 1.2 3.0 1.9 0.4 0.0 6.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.1 4.8 2.8 0.5 0.1 10.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.6 6.1 3.2 0.8 0.1 15.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.8 3.4 7.0 7.4 3.8 0.6 0.0 23.0 10th
11th 1.4 4.4 8.7 9.6 6.6 2.5 0.4 0.0 33.7 11th
Total 1.4 4.5 9.6 13.1 14.7 14.0 12.5 9.8 7.5 5.3 3.7 1.7 1.2 0.7 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 100.0% 0.0    0.0
16-4 91.7% 0.0    0.0 0.0
15-5 34.9% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
14-6 25.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.3% 0.0    0.0
12-8 1.8% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3 0.0% 0.0
16-4 0.0% 0.0
15-5 0.1% 17.5% 17.5% 14.0 0.0 0.1
14-6 0.2% 12.2% 12.2% 15.0 0.0 0.2
13-7 0.7% 15.0% 15.0% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.6
12-8 1.2% 5.0% 5.0% 15.7 0.0 0.0 1.2
11-9 1.7% 1.4% 1.4% 15.9 0.0 0.0 1.7
10-10 3.7% 0.6% 0.6% 16.0 0.0 3.6
9-11 5.3% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 5.3
8-12 7.5% 1.4% 1.4% 16.0 0.1 7.4
7-13 9.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 9.8
6-14 12.5% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 12.5
5-15 14.0% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 14.0
4-16 14.7% 14.7
3-17 13.1% 13.1
2-18 9.6% 9.6
1-19 4.5% 4.5
0-20 1.4% 1.4
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.6 0.0 0.1 0.3 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.9%