Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.5#298
Expected Predictive Rating-8.5#307
Pace61.4#338
Improvement-1.4#330

Offense
Total Offense-6.4#336
First Shot-5.1#326
After Offensive Rebound-1.2#270
Layup/Dunks-2.2#271
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#146
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.8#289
Freethrows-0.7#236
Improvement-1.0#316

Defense
Total Defense-1.2#215
First Shot-3.1#278
After Offensive Rebounds+2.0#32
Layups/Dunks-0.1#185
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.1#204
3 Pt Jumpshots+0.1#184
Freethrows-3.1#349
Improvement-0.4#252
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 48.2% 24.5% 50.2%
First Four0.2% 0.3% 0.2%
First Round0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Away) - 7.8% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 20 - 70 - 7
Quad 32 - 83 - 16
Quad 45 - 78 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2022 88   @ San Francisco L 48-60 8%     0 - 1 -3.6 -25.3 +22.7
  Nov 18, 2022 90   @ Stanford L 43-80 8%     0 - 2 -28.8 -21.8 -10.4
  Nov 20, 2022 290   Mount St. Mary's L 68-73 58%     0 - 3 -14.6 -5.6 -9.0
  Nov 23, 2022 309   Idaho W 82-71 62%     1 - 3 +0.2 +13.0 -11.1
  Nov 28, 2022 208   @ Pacific W 62-58 21%     2 - 3 +4.9 -7.7 +12.9
  Dec 03, 2022 156   California Baptist W 64-53 30%     3 - 3 +8.8 -0.1 +10.4
  Dec 10, 2022 247   Portland St. W 72-49 49%     4 - 3 +15.8 -0.2 +17.5
  Dec 13, 2022 102   @ Washington L 68-74 9%     4 - 4 +1.1 +8.3 -8.0
  Dec 16, 2022 213   Weber St. L 45-74 40%     4 - 5 -33.9 -22.8 -14.6
  Dec 20, 2022 119   @ San Jose St. L 43-65 12%     4 - 6 -16.6 -22.9 +3.3
  Dec 29, 2022 328   Cal St. Northridge W 67-57 68%     5 - 6 1 - 0 -2.2 -0.1 -0.7
  Dec 31, 2022 134   @ Hawaii L 48-57 13%     5 - 7 1 - 1 -4.4 -13.5 +7.8
  Jan 05, 2023 308   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 51-61 41%     5 - 8 1 - 2 -15.3 -14.2 -2.6
  Jan 07, 2023 101   UC Santa Barbara L 57-62 19%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -3.2 -7.4 +3.7
  Jan 12, 2023 165   @ Long Beach St. L 58-77 16%     5 - 10 1 - 4 -16.1 -18.2 +3.8
  Jan 16, 2023 158   @ UC Riverside L 78-83 OT 16%     5 - 11 1 - 5 -1.9 +8.5 -10.5
  Jan 19, 2023 262   UC San Diego L 64-71 52%     5 - 12 1 - 6 -15.1 -6.9 -8.9
  Jan 21, 2023 174   @ UC Davis L 63-65 17%     5 - 13 1 - 7 +0.6 -0.3 +0.7
  Jan 26, 2023 165   Long Beach St. L 52-70 31%     5 - 14 1 - 8 -20.6 -20.4 -0.7
  Jan 28, 2023 154   Cal St. Fullerton L 36-65 30%     5 - 15 1 - 9 -31.1 -28.1 -9.5
  Feb 02, 2023 101   @ UC Santa Barbara L 54-69 8%    
  Feb 04, 2023 134   Hawaii L 56-63 27%    
  Feb 09, 2023 100   @ UC Irvine L 57-72 8%    
  Feb 11, 2023 328   @ Cal St. Northridge L 60-61 46%    
  Feb 15, 2023 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 59-56 63%    
  Feb 18, 2023 154   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 55-66 15%    
  Feb 20, 2023 100   UC Irvine L 60-69 20%    
  Feb 25, 2023 174   UC Davis L 64-69 34%    
  Mar 02, 2023 262   @ UC San Diego L 60-65 32%    
  Mar 04, 2023 158   UC Riverside L 61-66 32%    
Projected Record 8 - 22 4 - 16




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 0.0 0.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.0 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.1 2.2 3.9 2.3 0.6 0.1 9.1 8th
9th 0.7 7.3 10.6 4.5 0.7 0.1 0.0 23.9 9th
10th 2.5 13.6 16.0 5.2 0.5 0.0 37.9 10th
11th 3.9 12.0 10.4 2.4 0.1 0.0 28.9 11th
Total 3.9 14.6 24.7 25.8 18.1 8.9 3.0 0.8 0.2 0.0 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9 0.0% 0.0
10-10 0.0% 0.0
9-11 0.2% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.0 0.2
8-12 0.8% 0.8% 0.8% 16.0 0.0 0.8
7-13 3.0% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 3.0
6-14 8.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 8.9
5-15 18.1% 0.3% 0.3% 16.0 0.1 18.0
4-16 25.8% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.1 25.8
3-17 24.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 24.7
2-18 14.6% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.5
1-19 3.9% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 3.9
0-20
Total 100% 0.2% 0.2% 0.0% 16.0 0.2 99.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 3.9% 0.1% 16.0 0.1