Cal Poly
Big West
2019-20 - 2023-24 - 2024-25
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Overall
Predictive Rating-11.8#335
Expected Predictive Rating-13.0#342
Pace64.9#285
Improvement-1.2#243

Offense
Total Offense-9.6#353
First Shot-8.6#354
After Offensive Rebound-0.9#247
Layup/Dunks-6.5#350
2 Pt Jumpshots+5.6#12
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.8#343
Freethrows-0.9#239
Improvement-2.3#307

Defense
Total Defense-2.3#239
First Shot-2.1#246
After Offensive Rebounds-0.2#207
Layups/Dunks-3.1#294
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.7#54
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.2#96
Freethrows-2.9#329
Improvement+1.2#115
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 16.0 16.0 16.0
.500 or above 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
First Four0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Santa Barbara (Away) - 9.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 20 - 40 - 5
Quad 31 - 131 - 17
Quad 42 - 103 - 28


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2023 261   @ Denver L 76-97 18%     0 - 1 -23.3 -6.6 -15.7
  Nov 11, 2023 176   @ Wyoming L 66-80 10%     0 - 2 -12.1 -9.9 -1.8
  Nov 17, 2023 179   St. Thomas W 61-60 16%     1 - 2 +0.0 +1.5 -1.3
  Nov 18, 2023 252   Portland St. L 57-73 24%     1 - 3 -20.4 -13.5 -7.6
  Nov 19, 2023 183   @ California Baptist L 58-67 11%     1 - 4 -7.6 -6.0 -2.8
  Nov 29, 2023 233   San Jose St. W 81-77 OT 30%     2 - 4 -2.4 +4.4 -6.7
  Dec 02, 2023 302   @ Idaho L 70-85 26%     2 - 5 -20.0 -1.4 -19.5
  Dec 04, 2023 141   @ Oregon St. L 63-70 2OT 7%     2 - 6 -2.5 -13.6 +11.8
  Dec 09, 2023 151   @ Weber St. L 50-78 8%     2 - 7 -24.4 -19.6 -6.2
  Dec 18, 2023 145   Eastern Washington L 53-62 16%     2 - 8 -10.0 -17.5 +6.6
  Dec 21, 2023 255   Nebraska Omaha W 66-53 33%     3 - 8 +5.7 -8.4 +14.8
  Dec 28, 2023 223   Cal St. Northridge L 73-83 28%     3 - 9 0 - 1 -15.9 -6.5 -8.7
  Dec 30, 2023 189   @ UC Davis L 46-71 12%     3 - 10 0 - 2 -23.8 -16.8 -10.7
  Jan 04, 2024 152   Long Beach St. L 82-89 18%     3 - 11 0 - 3 -9.0 +0.4 -8.7
  Jan 06, 2024 174   UC Santa Barbara L 52-61 21%     3 - 12 0 - 4 -12.3 -16.9 +3.4
  Jan 11, 2024 204   @ UC Riverside L 56-71 14%     3 - 13 0 - 5 -15.0 -11.2 -5.3
  Jan 13, 2024 110   UC San Diego L 61-86 11%     3 - 14 0 - 6 -23.4 -10.9 -13.7
  Jan 20, 2024 239   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 53-65 16%     3 - 15 0 - 7 -13.1 -13.5 -0.8
  Jan 25, 2024 232   Cal St. Fullerton L 51-54 30%     3 - 16 0 - 8 -9.3 -14.6 +4.8
  Jan 27, 2024 153   @ Hawaii L 73-83 9%     3 - 17 0 - 9 -6.8 -2.4 -3.8
  Feb 01, 2024 86   UC Irvine L 59-73 8%     3 - 18 0 - 10 -10.2 -6.0 -5.1
  Feb 03, 2024 189   UC Davis L 52-59 24%     3 - 19 0 - 11 -11.3 -14.0 +1.9
  Feb 08, 2024 223   @ Cal St. Northridge L 65-78 14%     3 - 20 0 - 12 -13.4 -13.4 +1.3
  Feb 10, 2024 152   @ Long Beach St. L 68-77 8%     3 - 21 0 - 13 -5.5 -9.0 +4.2
  Feb 15, 2024 153   Hawaii L 51-80 18%     3 - 22 0 - 14 -31.3 -21.4 -10.4
  Feb 22, 2024 232   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 50-68 15%     3 - 23 0 - 15 -18.9 -12.5 -9.2
  Feb 24, 2024 204   UC Riverside L 78-84 27%     3 - 24 0 - 16 -11.5 +7.6 -19.5
  Feb 29, 2024 174   @ UC Santa Barbara L 60-74 9%    
  Mar 02, 2024 239   Cal St. Bakersfield L 60-65 32%    
  Mar 07, 2024 86   @ UC Irvine L 55-76 2%    
  Mar 09, 2024 110   @ UC San Diego L 57-76 4%    
Projected Record 3 - 28 0 - 20





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 2nd
3rd 3rd
4th 4th
5th 5th
6th 6th
7th 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 58.9 35.7 5.1 0.3 0.0 100.0 11th
Total 58.9 35.7 5.1 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7
12-8
11-9
10-10
9-11
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.3% 0.3
2-18 5.1% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 5.1
1-19 35.7% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 35.7
0-20 58.9% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 58.9
Total 100% 0.1% 0.1% 0.0% 16.0 0.1 99.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 58.9% 0.0% 16.0 0.0