UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+7.0#74
Expected Predictive Rating+11.0#56
Pace65.3#274
Improvement+2.7#26

Offense
Total Offense+0.5#161
First Shot+0.3#173
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#170
Layup/Dunks+1.9#111
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.2#292
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.1#135
Freethrows-0.5#217
Improvement+3.0#8

Defense
Total Defense+6.5#32
First Shot+4.1#59
After Offensive Rebounds+2.4#49
Layups/Dunks-0.9#221
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.9#26
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.2#17
Freethrows-4.1#343
Improvement-0.3#211
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.2% 0.4% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.8% 1.3% 0.2%
Top 6 Seed 1.9% 3.0% 0.4%
NCAA Tourney Bid 44.2% 48.6% 38.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 5.0% 7.8% 1.8%
Average Seed 11.7 11.3 12.4
.500 or above 97.1% 98.8% 94.9%
.500 or above in Conference 97.9% 98.6% 96.9%
Conference Champion 58.1% 62.8% 51.9%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.7% 2.4% 0.7%
First Round43.5% 47.5% 38.2%
Second Round12.3% 15.2% 8.6%
Sweet Sixteen4.0% 5.0% 2.6%
Elite Eight0.9% 1.0% 0.7%
Final Four0.2% 0.3% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.1% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Away) - 56.9% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 11 - 1
Quad 22 - 23 - 3
Quad 37 - 310 - 7
Quad 412 - 122 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 09, 2021 102   @ New Mexico St. L 51-62 49%     0 - 1 -3.7 -16.4 +11.8
  Nov 13, 2021 79   Boise St. W 58-50 62%     1 - 1 +11.8 -6.9 +19.3
  Nov 20, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 82-48 89%     2 - 1 +27.3 +11.5 +17.7
  Nov 27, 2021 82   @ Santa Clara W 69-64 39%     3 - 1 +14.7 +2.9 +12.0
  Dec 11, 2021 129   @ Fresno St. W 63-61 57%    
  Dec 15, 2021 16   @ USC L 58-69 15%    
  Dec 19, 2021 194   Duquesne W 70-62 78%    
  Dec 21, 2021 72   @ Buffalo L 72-75 40%    
  Dec 30, 2021 271   Cal St. Northridge W 70-54 93%    
  Jan 01, 2022 118   UC Santa Barbara W 67-60 74%    
  Jan 06, 2022 212   @ UC Davis W 71-65 71%    
  Jan 08, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside W 62-60 56%    
  Jan 11, 2022 193   UC San Diego W 71-60 83%    
  Jan 14, 2022 188   @ Hawaii W 68-63 68%    
  Jan 20, 2022 208   Cal St. Fullerton W 71-59 87%    
  Jan 22, 2022 297   @ Long Beach St. W 76-65 84%    
  Jan 27, 2022 206   Cal St. Bakersfield W 67-55 86%    
  Jan 29, 2022 316   Cal Poly W 71-52 94%    
  Feb 03, 2022 118   @ UC Santa Barbara W 64-63 53%    
  Feb 05, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge W 67-57 81%    
  Feb 10, 2022 139   UC Riverside W 65-57 76%    
  Feb 12, 2022 212   UC Davis W 74-62 85%    
  Feb 15, 2022 193   @ UC San Diego W 68-63 67%    
  Feb 19, 2022 188   Hawaii W 71-60 82%    
  Feb 24, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 68-62 69%    
  Feb 26, 2022 297   Long Beach St. W 79-62 93%    
  Mar 03, 2022 316   @ Cal Poly W 68-55 87%    
  Mar 05, 2022 206   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 64-58 70%    
Projected Record 21 - 7 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 2.0 5.8 10.1 14.2 13.1 9.0 3.5 58.1 1st
2nd 0.2 2.1 5.0 6.5 3.8 1.6 0.2 19.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 1.8 3.6 2.9 1.1 0.2 9.8 3rd
4th 0.1 0.9 2.6 1.3 0.3 0.0 5.4 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 1.6 1.0 0.2 0.0 3.5 5th
6th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 0.4 0.0 1.8 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.3 0.0 0.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.6 1.2 1.9 3.3 5.6 7.5 10.2 13.5 14.1 15.8 13.4 9.0 3.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 3.5    3.5
19-1 100.0% 9.0    9.0 0.0
18-2 98.2% 13.1    12.3 0.8
17-3 90.1% 14.2    11.8 2.4 0.0
16-4 71.7% 10.1    7.0 2.9 0.3
15-5 43.2% 5.8    2.9 2.2 0.6 0.0
14-6 19.6% 2.0    0.3 0.9 0.7 0.1 0.0
13-7 3.2% 0.2    0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.4% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 58.1% 58.1 46.8 9.3 1.7 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 3.5% 86.1% 68.7% 17.4% 7.2 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.5 55.7%
19-1 9.0% 75.6% 64.6% 11.1% 10.1 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.5 0.6 1.0 2.0 1.6 0.3 0.0 2.2 31.2%
18-2 13.4% 63.4% 57.4% 6.0% 11.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.8 2.5 3.5 1.0 0.1 4.9 14.2%
17-3 15.8% 52.1% 49.8% 2.3% 12.1 0.1 0.3 1.0 4.7 1.9 0.3 7.6 4.6%
16-4 14.1% 43.4% 42.6% 0.8% 12.6 0.0 0.4 2.7 2.4 0.6 0.1 8.0 1.5%
15-5 13.5% 33.8% 33.5% 0.3% 12.9 0.1 1.3 2.2 0.8 0.1 8.9 0.5%
14-6 10.2% 32.1% 32.1% 13.3 0.5 1.4 1.1 0.2 7.0
13-7 7.5% 25.1% 25.1% 13.6 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 5.6
12-8 5.6% 19.9% 19.9% 13.8 0.1 0.3 0.5 0.3 4.5
11-9 3.3% 13.5% 13.5% 14.4 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.2 0.0 2.9
10-10 1.9% 4.8% 4.8% 15.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.8
9-11 1.2% 10.6% 10.6% 15.5 0.1 0.1 1.0
8-12 0.6% 3.5% 3.5% 16.0 0.0 0.6
7-13 0.3% 0.3
6-14 0.1% 18.5% 18.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 44.2% 41.3% 3.0% 11.7 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.5 0.6 0.5 0.7 0.8 1.6 2.4 6.4 14.7 10.2 4.4 1.2 0.2 55.8 5.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.4% 100.0% 3.4 10.8 16.7 26.1 20.7 15.3 10.3
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.1% 100.0% 5.7 32.3 32.3 3.2 32.3