UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+2.8#122
Expected Predictive Rating+0.4#161
Pace71.3#137
Improvement+1.2#101

Offense
Total Offense-4.1#275
First Shot-4.7#306
After Offensive Rebound+0.7#138
Layup/Dunks-1.1#219
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.8#125
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.7#329
Freethrows+1.3#104
Improvement+0.5#137

Defense
Total Defense+6.8#28
First Shot+7.2#18
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#217
Layups/Dunks+2.4#99
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.5#75
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#109
Freethrows+1.2#104
Improvement+0.6#134
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 22.3% 16.9%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.1 12.9 13.3
.500 or above 90.5% 95.6% 86.4%
.500 or above in Conference 95.3% 96.7% 94.2%
Conference Champion 23.9% 27.5% 21.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round19.3% 22.3% 16.9%
Second Round1.9% 2.3% 1.5%
Sweet Sixteen0.3% 0.4% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Belmont (Home) - 44.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 37 - 68 - 10
Quad 411 - 219 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Fri, Nov 7 132 California Baptist L 61-69 64%     0 - 1 -9.0 -13.1 +4.3
  Sat, Nov 15 215 Weber St. W 79-70 81%     1 - 1 +2.7 -4.7 +6.4
  Wed, Nov 19 87 @Utah Valley L 72-79 27%     1 - 2 +2.1 +4.7 -2.5
  Sat, Nov 22 98 Northern Iowa L 69-70 OT 52%     1 - 3 +1.2 -1.1 +2.3
  Tue, Nov 25 129 New Mexico St. L 45-57 52%     1 - 4 -9.7 -26.3 +16.6
  Wed, Nov 26 158 South Dakota St. W 64-52 61%     2 - 4 +11.9 -11.4 +22.6
  Sun, Nov 30 190 @San Jose St. W 72-63 56%     3 - 4 +10.2 +3.0 +7.7
  Thu, Dec 4 255 UC Riverside W 73-60 85%     4 - 4 1 - 0 +4.7 -3.2 +8.2
  Sat, Dec 6 253 Cal St. Northridge W 85-71 85%     5 - 4 2 - 0 +5.8 +7.8 -2.0
  Fri, Dec 19 79 Belmont L 70-72 44%    
  Sun, Dec 21 151 North Dakota St. W 69-67 59%    
  Thu, Jan 1 303 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75-67 76%    
  Sat, Jan 3 297 @Cal St. Fullerton W 79-72 75%    
  Thu, Jan 8 279 Long Beach St. W 75-63 87%    
  Sun, Jan 11 106 @Hawaii L 65-69 35%    
  Sat, Jan 17 173 @UC Davis W 67-66 52%    
  Thu, Jan 22 255 @UC Riverside W 72-67 68%    
  Sat, Jan 24 101 @UC San Diego L 68-73 33%    
  Thu, Jan 29 106 Hawaii W 68-66 57%    
  Thu, Feb 5 303 Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-64 90%    
  Sat, Feb 7 140 @UC Santa Barbara L 69-71 45%    
  Thu, Feb 12 250 @Cal Poly W 80-75 67%    
  Sat, Feb 14 297 Cal St. Fullerton W 82-69 88%    
  Thu, Feb 19 279 @Long Beach St. W 72-66 71%    
  Sat, Feb 21 101 UC San Diego W 71-70 54%    
  Thu, Feb 26 253 @Cal St. Northridge W 77-72 67%    
  Sat, Feb 28 140 UC Santa Barbara W 72-68 65%    
  Thu, Mar 5 250 Cal Poly W 83-72 83%    
  Sat, Mar 7 173 UC Davis W 70-63 72%    
Projected Record 18 - 11 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.9 3.4 6.4 6.5 4.5 1.8 0.4 23.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.3 2.2 6.2 8.4 5.4 1.5 0.2 24.1 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.6 3.1 6.9 6.8 3.1 0.5 0.0 21.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.2 5.6 4.6 1.4 0.2 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.0 0.6 2.2 3.3 2.1 0.4 0.0 8.7 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 1.2 1.5 0.7 0.1 3.9 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0 1.6 7th
8th 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.5 1.3 2.6 4.8 7.9 11.2 14.1 15.3 15.0 12.3 8.0 4.7 1.8 0.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.4    0.4
19-1 100.0% 1.8    1.7 0.0
18-2 96.2% 4.5    4.0 0.5
17-3 81.4% 6.5    4.8 1.5 0.1
16-4 52.4% 6.4    3.4 2.5 0.5 0.0
15-5 22.4% 3.4    1.2 1.5 0.6 0.1 0.0
14-6 5.7% 0.9    0.2 0.3 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 23.9% 23.9 15.8 6.3 1.5 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.4% 55.6% 55.6% 11.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2
19-1 1.8% 48.8% 48.8% 12.0 0.2 0.5 0.1 0.0 0.9
18-2 4.7% 42.7% 42.7% 12.3 0.0 0.1 1.1 0.7 0.0 2.7
17-3 8.0% 37.1% 37.1% 12.7 0.1 1.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 5.0
16-4 12.3% 30.6% 30.6% 12.9 0.0 0.9 2.1 0.6 0.0 8.5
15-5 15.0% 25.0% 25.0% 13.2 0.5 1.9 1.2 0.1 0.0 11.3
14-6 15.3% 17.4% 17.4% 13.6 0.1 1.2 1.1 0.3 12.6
13-7 14.1% 12.4% 12.4% 13.8 0.0 0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0 12.3
12-8 11.2% 7.2% 7.2% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.3 0.0 10.4
11-9 7.9% 4.4% 4.4% 14.6 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.0 7.6
10-10 4.8% 3.0% 3.0% 15.1 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 4.7
9-11 2.6% 2.3% 2.3% 15.6 0.0 0.0 2.5
8-12 1.3% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.0 1.3
7-13 0.5% 0.5
6-14 0.2% 1.5% 1.5% 16.0 0.0 0.2
5-15 0.1% 0.1
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 13.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.5 4.5 8.2 4.5 1.4 0.2 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.1% 100.0% 10.2 3.7 3.7 3.7 3.7 18.5 63.0 3.7