UC Irvine
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+9.7#49
Expected Predictive Rating+10.8#53
Pace67.8#210
Improvement+0.4#17

Offense
Total Offense+1.2#136
First Shot-1.2#209
After Offensive Rebound+2.5#45
Layup/Dunks-4.5#328
2 Pt Jumpshots+1.9#77
3 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#68
Freethrows-2.2#305
Improvement+0.2#44

Defense
Total Defense+8.5#21
First Shot+3.3#76
After Offensive Rebounds+5.2#3
Layups/Dunks+2.9#81
2 Pt Jumpshots-2.3#320
3 Pt Jumpshots+9.0#3
Freethrows-6.4#361
Improvement+0.2#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.4% 0.5% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 2.7% 3.1% 0.1%
Top 6 Seed 6.1% 6.9% 0.8%
NCAA Tourney Bid 68.1% 70.1% 55.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 17.4% 19.6% 6.0%
Average Seed 10.5 10.4 11.6
.500 or above 99.9% 100.0% 99.3%
.500 or above in Conference 99.8% 99.9% 99.2%
Conference Champion 77.5% 78.9% 68.0%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four3.0% 3.2% 1.7%
First Round66.6% 68.5% 54.6%
Second Round25.8% 27.1% 16.9%
Sweet Sixteen8.3% 8.9% 4.7%
Elite Eight2.6% 2.8% 1.4%
Final Four0.8% 0.9% 0.3%
Championship Game0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
National Champion0.1% 0.1% 0.0%

Next Game: Fresno St. (Home) - 86.6% chance of victory

Projected Seeding 12 seed  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b1 - 01 - 1
Quad 22 - 13 - 3
Quad 39 - 312 - 5
Quad 412 - 124 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 50   @ Oregon W 69-56 39%     1 - 0 +25.6 +0.4 +25.1
  Nov 15, 2022 132   Loyola Marymount W 79-64 83%     2 - 0 +14.6 +4.1 +10.7
  Nov 19, 2022 134   @ Pepperdine L 55-64 66%     2 - 1 -3.5 -16.2 +12.9
  Nov 25, 2022 249   Nicholls St. W 83-56 90%     3 - 1 +22.6 +1.3 +19.0
  Nov 26, 2022 104   New Mexico St. W 85-68 69%     4 - 1 +21.7 +13.0 +8.7
  Nov 29, 2022 25   @ San Diego St. L 69-72 25%     4 - 2 +13.8 +4.6 +9.2
  Dec 03, 2022 154   Fresno St. W 65-53 87%    
  Dec 10, 2022 230   @ South Dakota W 72-62 83%    
  Dec 15, 2022 103   @ Santa Clara W 70-68 57%    
  Dec 20, 2022 153   Harvard W 70-58 86%    
  Dec 31, 2022 264   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-53 86%    
  Jan 05, 2023 161   @ UC Davis W 73-67 72%    
  Jan 07, 2023 165   Long Beach St. W 74-62 87%    
  Jan 11, 2023 211   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-57 92%    
  Jan 14, 2023 299   @ Cal St. Northridge W 71-57 90%    
  Jan 16, 2023 164   UC Santa Barbara W 70-58 86%    
  Jan 19, 2023 143   Hawaii W 67-56 84%    
  Jan 26, 2023 211   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-60 79%    
  Jan 28, 2023 299   Cal St. Northridge W 74-54 96%    
  Feb 02, 2023 283   @ UC San Diego W 70-57 88%    
  Feb 04, 2023 165   @ Long Beach St. W 71-65 72%    
  Feb 09, 2023 285   Cal Poly W 71-52 96%    
  Feb 11, 2023 152   UC Riverside W 70-58 85%    
  Feb 15, 2023 164   @ UC Santa Barbara W 67-61 71%    
  Feb 18, 2023 161   UC Davis W 76-64 86%    
  Feb 20, 2023 285   @ Cal Poly W 68-55 88%    
  Feb 23, 2023 283   UC San Diego W 73-54 95%    
  Feb 26, 2023 143   @ Hawaii W 64-59 67%    
  Mar 02, 2023 152   @ UC Riverside W 67-61 70%    
  Mar 04, 2023 264   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-50 94%    
Projected Record 24 - 6 17 - 3





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.2 1.3 4.7 11.2 17.3 19.8 15.5 7.4 77.5 1st
2nd 0.0 0.1 1.1 3.1 4.6 3.4 1.4 0.2 13.9 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 0.7 1.7 1.6 0.7 0.1 0.0 5.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.6 0.2 0.0 2.0 4th
5th 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.0 5th
6th 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.5 1.0 1.9 3.7 6.2 10.0 14.7 18.7 20.0 15.5 7.4 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 7.4    7.4
19-1 100.0% 15.5    15.4 0.1
18-2 99.0% 19.8    18.9 0.9
17-3 92.4% 17.3    14.8 2.5 0.0
16-4 76.3% 11.2    7.8 3.1 0.3 0.0
15-5 47.1% 4.7    2.3 1.8 0.5 0.1
14-6 20.2% 1.3    0.4 0.5 0.3 0.1 0.0 0.0
13-7 4.2% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.6% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 77.5% 77.5 67.1 9.0 1.2 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 7.4% 96.7% 82.8% 13.9% 5.9 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.4 1.1 0.9 0.7 0.5 0.6 0.4 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.2 80.8%
19-1 15.5% 90.5% 76.0% 14.5% 9.2 0.0 0.1 0.5 0.8 1.4 1.8 2.3 2.8 3.2 1.2 0.1 1.5 60.4%
18-2 20.0% 79.9% 70.0% 9.9% 10.9 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 1.1 3.0 6.9 4.3 0.4 0.0 4.0 33.0%
17-3 18.7% 67.3% 62.0% 5.4% 11.6 0.0 0.1 0.7 4.8 5.8 1.2 0.1 6.1 14.2%
16-4 14.7% 58.5% 56.0% 2.4% 12.0 0.0 0.1 1.9 4.9 1.6 0.1 0.0 6.1 5.5%
15-5 10.0% 48.2% 47.3% 0.8% 12.4 0.0 0.4 2.5 1.7 0.2 0.0 5.2 1.6%
14-6 6.2% 41.5% 41.5% 12.7 0.1 1.0 1.2 0.3 0.0 3.6
13-7 3.7% 36.2% 36.2% 13.0 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.3 0.0 2.4
12-8 1.9% 30.1% 30.1% 13.3 0.1 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.4
11-9 1.0% 20.6% 20.6% 13.7 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.8
10-10 0.5% 12.7% 12.7% 14.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.4
9-11 0.1% 30.2% 30.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1
8-12 0.1% 10.5% 10.5% 16.0 0.0 0.1
7-13 0.0% 0.0
6-14
5-15 0.0% 0.0 0.0
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 68.1% 61.4% 6.7% 10.5 0.2 0.3 0.7 1.5 1.6 1.8 2.1 2.5 4.0 7.0 17.5 20.2 7.1 1.4 0.1 0.0 31.9 17.4%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 4.0% 99.3% 4.2 4.1 6.4 17.8 31.4 20.6 13.8 3.7 0.9 0.8