Hawaii
Big West
2024-25 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.6#111
Expected Predictive Rating+3.8#114
Pace72.3#107
Improvement-0.8#240

Offense
Total Offense-2.3#228
First Shot-3.1#268
After Offensive Rebound+0.8#125
Layup/Dunks+2.5#93
2 Pt Jumpshots-3.4#345
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.4#311
Freethrows+2.2#65
Improvement+0.2#167

Defense
Total Defense+5.9#35
First Shot+4.8#45
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#104
Layups/Dunks-1.9#253
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.5#242
3 Pt Jumpshots+6.7#11
Freethrows+0.5#143
Improvement-1.0#263
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 24.1% 26.4% 18.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.9 12.8 13.1
.500 or above 99.4% 99.8% 98.4%
.500 or above in Conference 97.2% 98.6% 93.4%
Conference Champion 29.6% 34.4% 17.2%
Last Place in Conference 0.1% 0.0% 0.2%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round24.1% 26.4% 18.2%
Second Round2.6% 3.0% 1.8%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.5% 0.3%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Riverside (Away) - 72.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 35 - 7
Quad 416 - 222 - 8


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Tue, Nov 4 62 @Oregon L 59-60 22%     0 - 1 +10.9 -12.9 +23.9
  Sun, Nov 9 298 East Texas A&M W 100-74 90%     1 - 1 +15.7 +14.3 -1.1
  Wed, Nov 12 365 Mississippi Valley W 88-56 99%     2 - 1 +5.8 +9.2 -1.7
  Fri, Nov 14 318 Manhattan W 86-56 92%     3 - 1 +17.6 +1.8 +14.8
  Sat, Nov 15 263 Utah Tech W 68-62 87%     4 - 1 -2.6 -8.6 +6.0
  Thu, Nov 20 63 Arizona St. L 76-83 41%     4 - 2 -1.1 -1.1 +0.5
  Fri, Nov 28 331 North Dakota W 92-55 94%     5 - 2 +23.5 +4.5 +15.4
  Thu, Dec 4 197 UC Davis W 75-69 80%     6 - 2 1 - 0 +0.7 -0.7 +1.3
  Sat, Dec 6 270 Cal St. Fullerton W 69-59 87%     7 - 2 2 - 0 +1.3 -10.6 +11.5
  Sat, Dec 13 211 UTEP W 66-61 82%     8 - 2 -1.3 -1.6 +0.7
  Thu, Jan 1 265 @UC Riverside W 74-68 72%    
  Sat, Jan 3 83 @UC San Diego L 69-75 28%    
  Sun, Jan 11 145 UC Irvine W 69-64 69%    
  Thu, Jan 15 253 @Cal Poly W 83-77 70%    
  Sat, Jan 17 158 @UC Santa Barbara W 72-71 52%    
  Fri, Jan 23 313 Cal St. Bakersfield W 80-65 92%    
  Sun, Jan 25 219 Cal St. Northridge W 82-72 83%    
  Thu, Jan 29 145 @UC Irvine L 66-67 48%    
  Sat, Jan 31 278 @Long Beach St. W 75-68 74%    
  Sun, Feb 8 83 UC San Diego L 72-73 50%    
  Thu, Feb 12 313 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 77-68 80%    
  Sat, Feb 14 219 @Cal St. Northridge W 79-75 65%    
  Fri, Feb 20 253 Cal Poly W 86-74 86%    
  Sun, Feb 22 158 UC Santa Barbara W 74-68 72%    
  Thu, Feb 26 197 @UC Davis W 72-69 60%    
  Sat, Feb 28 270 @Cal St. Fullerton W 81-75 72%    
  Fri, Mar 6 265 UC Riverside W 77-65 87%    
  Sun, Mar 8 278 Long Beach St. W 78-65 88%    
Projected Record 20 - 8 14 - 6




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 1.0 3.7 6.9 8.4 6.3 2.6 0.6 29.6 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 0.6 3.0 7.7 10.2 7.4 2.8 0.4 32.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.8 3.4 6.2 5.8 2.5 0.4 0.0 19.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.6 2.5 3.8 2.5 0.7 0.1 10.2 4th
5th 0.3 1.5 2.1 0.9 0.2 5.1 5th
6th 0.1 0.7 1.1 0.4 0.0 0.0 2.4 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 1.0 7th
8th 0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.5 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2 9th
10th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.3 0.7 1.7 3.4 5.9 8.6 12.0 15.1 16.4 14.6 11.2 6.8 2.6 0.6 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.6    0.6
19-1 100.0% 2.6    2.6 0.1
18-2 93.6% 6.3    5.5 0.8
17-3 75.0% 8.4    6.0 2.3 0.1
16-4 47.1% 6.9    3.7 2.7 0.5 0.0
15-5 22.4% 3.7    1.3 1.8 0.6 0.0
14-6 6.4% 1.0    0.2 0.4 0.3 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 29.6% 29.6 19.8 8.2 1.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.6% 57.5% 57.5% 10.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.3
19-1 2.6% 50.2% 50.2% 11.7 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.1 1.3
18-2 6.8% 45.4% 45.4% 12.2 0.3 1.9 0.8 0.1 3.7
17-3 11.2% 39.2% 39.2% 12.6 0.1 2.0 2.0 0.3 6.8
16-4 14.6% 32.8% 32.8% 12.9 0.0 1.4 2.7 0.7 0.0 9.8
15-5 16.4% 26.1% 26.1% 13.1 0.0 0.7 2.4 1.1 0.1 12.1
14-6 15.1% 19.6% 19.6% 13.4 0.3 1.5 1.1 0.1 12.2
13-7 12.0% 13.0% 13.0% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.7 0.2 10.5
12-8 8.6% 9.6% 9.6% 13.9 0.0 0.2 0.5 0.2 0.0 7.8
11-9 5.9% 4.8% 4.8% 14.3 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 5.6
10-10 3.4% 4.9% 4.9% 14.5 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 3.2
9-11 1.7% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.7
8-12 0.7% 1.9% 1.9% 15.8 0.0 0.0 0.7
7-13 0.3% 1.3% 1.3% 16.0 0.0 0.3
6-14 0.1% 0.1
5-15 0.0% 0.0
4-16 0.0% 0.0
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 24.1% 24.1% 0.0% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.1 7.2 10.3 4.6 0.8 0.0 75.9 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.3% 100.0% 10.8 1.0 1.0 1.0 7.7 13.5 59.6 15.4 1.0
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.2%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.1%