Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating -5.4 #255
Expected Predictive Rating -6.7 #273
Pace 68.4 #196
Improvement +1.9 #100

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #239 C- C- C D+ D-
Defense #262 C- C- C D- C

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 34% #299 1.24 #87 -1.0 #214
2 Pt. Jumpers 30% #30 0.73 #210 +3.2 #41
Three Pointers 36% #296 0.97 #236 -3.5 #302
1st FG Attempt 0.99 #214 -1.3 #214
Freethrows 0.26 #310 74% #138 0.19 #287
Second Chance 27.5% #274 1.05 #137 0.29 #235
Turnovers 16.5% #164
Total Offense -2.5 #239

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 41% #119 1.25 #291 -3.0 #285
2 Pt. Jumpers 22% #125 0.84 #311 -1.5 #297
Three Pointers 37% #284 0.99 #146 +2.3 #96
1st FG Attempt 1.06 #260 -2.2 #257
Freethrows 0.35 #316 75% #329 0.27 #332
Second Chance 27.7% #77 1.25 #363 0.35 #266
Turnovers 16.5% #190
Total Defense -2.9 #262

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect -3.0% #334 -0.1% #161
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 0.6% #164 4.5% #267
Possession Length 17.6 #214 16.7 #93
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #260 0.19 #253
Improvement -0.2 #192 +2.1 #68

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.4% 0.8% 0.3%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.9 15.8 16.0
.500 or above 0.1% 0.2% 0.0%
.500 or above in Conference 8.1% 21.2% 5.2%
Conference Champion 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Last Place in Conference 6.5% 2.1% 7.5%
First Four0.3% 0.6% 0.2%
First Round0.2% 0.5% 0.2%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC San Diego (Away) - 18.1% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 20 - 40 - 6
Quad 32 - 102 - 16
Quad 47 - 510 - 21


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Tue, Nov 4 43 @San Diego St. L 45 - 77 4% -13  0 - 1 -17 -19 F D+ F +2 A- F A-
 Sat, Nov 8 145 @Fresno St. L 62 - 82 19% -10  0 - 2 -16 -7 D- D- D -8 F B B+
 Wed, Nov 12 124 @Pacific L 66 - 69 16% +3  0 - 3 +2 -3 D- B D- +5 A+ F B
 Sun, Nov 16 87 Illinois St. L 80 - 82 20% -4  0 - 4 +1 +12 A- C+ A+ -11 C+ A- F
 Fri, Nov 21 166 Montana St. L 72 - 78 43% -3  0 - 5 -10 -2 C D+ C -8 C D- D-
 Wed, Nov 26 232 @Portland L 73 - 93 34% -11  0 - 6 -21 -2 D D+ D+ -19 F C B-
 Sun, Nov 30 201 San Diego W 76 - 72 51% -1  1 - 6 -2 +8 C+ A+ A+ -9 D F A+
 Thu, Dec 4 129 @UC Santa Barbara L 77 - 84 OT 17% -1  1 - 7 0 - 1 -2 +1 F A+ C -2 C A+ C+
 Sat, Dec 6 136 UC San Diego L 74 - 80 36% -4  1 - 8 0 - 2 -8 +4 B D- B+ -12 F A+ C
 Tue, Dec 9 242 @San Jose St. L 83 - 89 OT 36% -1  1 - 9 -8 +6 D A- D -13 F F C
 Thu, Dec 18 283 Pepperdine W 81 - 78 67% -2  2 - 9 -7 +6 B+ D B+ -13 F F A+
 Sun, Dec 21 5 @Iowa St. L 60 - 91 1% -29  2 - 10 -7 -3 D+ F A -2 C- C B-
 Sat, Jan 3 264 Cal Poly W 74 - 66 63% +10  3 - 10 1 - 2 -1 -5 C- D C- +4 A+ D F
 Thu, Jan 8 118 @UC Irvine L 64 - 74 14% -7  3 - 11 1 - 3 -4 -2 B- F C- -2 C+ A F
 Sat, Jan 10 319 Cal St. Bakersfield W 81 - 75 76% +5  4 - 11 2 - 3 -7 -4 C D+ D- -3 D- A+ C
 Thu, Jan 15 291 UC Riverside W 88 - 73 69% +10  5 - 11 3 - 3 +4 +13 A+ C B+ -8 A+ F F
 Sat, Jan 17 187 @Cal St. Northridge W 87 - 80 27% +0  6 - 11 4 - 3 +8 +5 B D- C- +2 A+ F C+
 Thu, Jan 22 224 @Cal St. Fullerton L 61 - 71 32% -11  6 - 12 4 - 4 -11 -9 D- F F -1 F A- B+
 Sat, Jan 24 129 UC Santa Barbara L 71 - 74 34% -8  6 - 13 4 - 5 -4 +4 B- F A -8 C+ D F
 Thu, Jan 29 291 @UC Riverside L 61 - 71 47% -0  6 - 14 4 - 6 -15 -13 F C+ F -2 C+ F+ C-
 Sat, Jan 31 100 Hawaii L 82 - 89 25% -4  6 - 15 4 - 7 -5 +11 C- A+ B- -16 F C C-
 Thu, Feb 5 136 @UC San Diego L 67 - 77 18%
 Thu, Feb 12 224 Cal St. Fullerton W 79 - 78 54%
 Sat, Feb 14 189 @UC Davis L 73 - 79 27%
 Thu, Feb 19 118 UC Irvine L 68 - 73 30%
 Sat, Feb 21 187 Cal St. Northridge L 79 - 80 48%
 Thu, Feb 26 264 @Cal Poly L 82 - 84 41%
 Sat, Feb 28 319 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 76 - 75 54%
 Thu, Mar 5 189 UC Davis L 75 - 76 49%
 Sun, Mar 8 100 @Hawaii L 66 - 79 11%
Totals 9 - 21 7 - 13 -5 -2 C- C- C -3 C- C- C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 1st
2nd 0.0 0.0 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 3rd
4th 0.0 0.8 0.8 0.2 1.8 4th
5th 0.0 1.0 2.5 0.6 0.0 4.1 5th
6th 0.7 4.6 2.3 0.1 7.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.9 6.8 6.3 0.6 14.6 7th
8th 0.0 1.5 9.2 11.8 1.9 0.0 24.4 8th
9th 0.2 3.3 13.3 13.5 3.2 0.1 33.6 9th
10th 1.1 4.6 4.8 1.2 0.1 11.9 10th
11th 0.8 0.9 0.2 0.0 1.8 11th
Total 2.1 8.8 19.8 24.8 22.6 13.9 6.2 1.5 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4
15-5
14-6
13-7 0.0% 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.3% 4.4% 4.4% 14.7 0.0 0.0 0.3
11-9 1.5% 1.6% 1.6% 15.8 0.0 0.0 1.5
10-10 6.2% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 6.1
9-11 13.9% 1.0% 1.0% 16.0 0.1 13.8
8-12 22.6% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 22.5
7-13 24.8% 0.0% 0.0% 16.0 0.0 24.7
6-14 19.8% 19.8
5-15 8.8% 8.8
4-16 2.1% 2.1
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 0.4% 0.4% 0.0% 15.9 99.6 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 2.1%