Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#165
Expected Predictive Rating+0.0#168
Pace81.2#2
Improvement+0.1#173

Offense
Total Offense-0.1#176
First Shot-3.5#297
After Offensive Rebound+3.5#9
Layup/Dunks+5.6#16
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.5#141
3 Pt Jumpshots-8.5#358
Freethrows-1.2#272
Improvement-0.3#246

Defense
Total Defense+0.2#164
First Shot+0.6#153
After Offensive Rebounds-0.4#223
Layups/Dunks+1.8#102
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.5#10
3 Pt Jumpshots-2.7#287
Freethrows-1.0#261
Improvement+0.4#116
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 7.2% 8.5% 6.5%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.9 14.6 15.2
.500 or above 68.0% 84.9% 58.0%
.500 or above in Conference 86.4% 95.9% 80.8%
Conference Champion 1.4% 2.7% 0.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four1.3% 0.7% 1.6%
First Round6.8% 8.2% 6.0%
Second Round0.4% 0.6% 0.4%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal St. Fullerton (Away) - 37.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 3
Quad 21 - 51 - 7
Quad 36 - 56 - 13
Quad 49 - 215 - 15


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 07, 2022 156   @ California Baptist W 79-64 38%     1 - 0 +18.3 +9.2 +9.1
  Nov 11, 2022 5   @ UCLA L 69-93 4%     1 - 1 -3.2 -1.5 +1.6
  Nov 13, 2022 120   Montana St. L 57-70 51%     1 - 2 -13.0 -12.0 -1.7
  Nov 25, 2022 249   Oakland W 78-70 68%     2 - 2 +3.3 -3.9 +6.7
  Nov 26, 2022 80   North Texas L 47-68 27%     2 - 3 -14.4 -13.8 -3.4
  Nov 27, 2022 146   Vermont W 78-58 46%     3 - 3 +21.2 +3.8 +16.8
  Dec 03, 2022 99   @ Utah Valley L 78-88 24%     3 - 4 -2.6 +3.0 -4.6
  Dec 10, 2022 219   @ Sacramento St. L 74-76 50%     3 - 5 -1.8 -1.0 -0.7
  Dec 14, 2022 44   @ USC L 78-88 12%     3 - 6 +3.2 +7.0 -3.1
  Dec 21, 2022 309   Idaho W 82-75 85%     4 - 6 -3.8 -3.6 -0.5
  Dec 29, 2022 262   UC San Diego L 83-85 OT 79%     4 - 7 0 - 1 -10.1 -5.9 -3.9
  Dec 31, 2022 158   UC Riverside L 72-73 60%     4 - 8 0 - 2 -3.3 -6.1 +2.8
  Jan 05, 2023 328   @ Cal St. Northridge W 84-74 75%     5 - 8 1 - 2 +3.2 +10.2 -6.9
  Jan 07, 2023 100   @ UC Irvine L 70-87 25%     5 - 9 1 - 3 -9.7 -1.0 -8.1
  Jan 12, 2023 298   Cal Poly W 77-58 84%     6 - 9 2 - 3 +8.7 -5.0 +12.1
  Jan 14, 2023 134   @ Hawaii L 70-79 34%     6 - 10 2 - 4 -4.4 -3.4 -0.4
  Jan 19, 2023 154   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-67 59%     7 - 10 3 - 4 +2.9 -3.8 +6.5
  Jan 21, 2023 262   @ UC San Diego W 112-110 3OT 61%     8 - 10 4 - 4 -0.7 +6.0 -7.3
  Jan 26, 2023 298   @ Cal Poly W 70-52 69%     9 - 10 5 - 4 +13.2 -0.6 +14.3
  Jan 28, 2023 174   UC Davis W 75-72 62%     10 - 10 6 - 4 +0.2 -6.3 +6.1
  Feb 02, 2023 154   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 70-73 37%    
  Feb 04, 2023 100   UC Irvine L 76-78 45%    
  Feb 09, 2023 101   UC Santa Barbara L 72-74 45%    
  Feb 11, 2023 308   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 70-65 69%    
  Feb 15, 2023 158   @ UC Riverside L 74-77 38%    
  Feb 18, 2023 134   Hawaii W 71-70 55%    
  Feb 23, 2023 101   @ UC Santa Barbara L 69-76 24%    
  Feb 25, 2023 328   Cal St. Northridge W 77-65 88%    
  Mar 02, 2023 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 73-62 85%    
  Mar 04, 2023 174   @ UC Davis L 79-81 40%    
Projected Record 15 - 15 11 - 9





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.5 0.7 0.2 1.4 1st
2nd 0.0 1.1 2.8 0.8 0.0 4.8 2nd
3rd 0.1 1.6 6.0 2.7 0.1 10.4 3rd
4th 0.0 1.4 8.4 6.1 0.4 16.2 4th
5th 0.1 1.4 8.9 9.5 1.1 0.0 21.0 5th
6th 0.1 1.7 8.5 10.7 2.3 0.0 23.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 2.6 7.8 8.5 2.6 0.1 21.9 7th
8th 0.0 0.3 0.5 0.2 0.0 0.0 1.0 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.6 3.2 9.8 18.4 23.7 21.8 14.3 6.3 1.6 0.2 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 89.9% 0.2    0.1 0.1
15-5 44.0% 0.7    0.2 0.3 0.2 0.0
14-6 7.3% 0.5    0.0 0.1 0.2 0.1 0.0
13-7 0.1% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 1.4% 1.4 0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 0.2% 20.2% 20.2% 12.9 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2
15-5 1.6% 17.0% 17.0% 13.4 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 1.4
14-6 6.3% 12.3% 12.3% 13.8 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.1 5.5
13-7 14.3% 10.1% 10.1% 14.4 0.1 0.7 0.6 0.0 12.8
12-8 21.8% 8.1% 8.1% 14.8 0.0 0.3 1.4 0.1 20.1
11-9 23.7% 6.6% 6.6% 15.5 0.0 0.8 0.8 22.2
10-10 18.4% 4.8% 4.8% 15.9 0.0 0.8 17.5
9-11 9.8% 3.8% 3.8% 16.0 0.0 0.4 9.4
8-12 3.2% 2.5% 2.5% 16.0 0.1 3.1
7-13 0.6% 2.6% 2.6% 16.0 0.0 0.6
6-14 0.0% 0.0
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 7.2% 7.2% 0.0% 14.9 0.0 0.0 0.5 1.6 2.9 2.2 92.8 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 20.2% 12.9 5.1 12.1 3.0