Long Beach St.
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating-7.3#297
Expected Predictive Rating-3.6#233
Pace80.9#10
Improvement-1.0#258

Offense
Total Offense-3.1#267
First Shot-2.7#262
After Offensive Rebound-0.4#206
Layup/Dunks-1.0#200
2 Pt Jumpshots+4.9#14
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.6#331
Freethrows-1.1#247
Improvement-2.7#348

Defense
Total Defense-4.2#302
First Shot-4.3#305
After Offensive Rebounds+0.1#167
Layups/Dunks+4.3#38
2 Pt Jumpshots-1.9#297
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.6#347
Freethrows-0.1#192
Improvement+1.7#45
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 0.8% 1.3% 0.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 15.7 15.7 15.8
.500 or above 2.6% 6.1% 1.4%
.500 or above in Conference 12.0% 18.2% 9.9%
Conference Champion 0.2% 0.5% 0.1%
Last Place in Conference 29.7% 21.8% 32.5%
First Four0.5% 0.8% 0.4%
First Round0.6% 1.1% 0.5%
Second Round0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Loyola Marymount (Home) - 26.3% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 20 - 2
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 4
Quad 20 - 40 - 7
Quad 32 - 92 - 17
Quad 46 - 59 - 22


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 10, 2021 351   @ Idaho W 95-89 OT 67%     1 - 0 -5.8 -1.6 -5.4
  Nov 15, 2021 8   @ UCLA L 79-100 1%     1 - 1 -0.5 +5.3 -3.3
  Nov 17, 2021 152   Utah Valley L 78-84 OT 31%     1 - 2 -8.2 -0.9 -6.9
  Nov 22, 2021 93   Missouri St. L 66-92 11%     1 - 3 -20.2 -8.9 -10.5
  Nov 23, 2021 89   Murray St. L 43-80 11%     1 - 4 -30.9 -25.7 -5.4
  Nov 24, 2021 205   Wright St. W 85-76 30%     2 - 4 +7.1 +2.1 +4.1
  Nov 30, 2021 48   @ San Diego St. L 47-72 4%     2 - 5 -12.4 -18.1 +6.9
  Dec 04, 2021 130   Loyola Marymount L 73-80 26%    
  Dec 12, 2021 16   @ USC L 61-86 1%    
  Dec 20, 2021 153   @ San Diego L 69-80 15%    
  Dec 30, 2021 316   @ Cal Poly L 71-72 45%    
  Jan 01, 2022 206   @ Cal St. Bakersfield L 67-75 23%    
  Jan 04, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton L 72-80 23%    
  Jan 08, 2022 188   Hawaii L 75-78 38%    
  Jan 13, 2022 118   UC Santa Barbara L 71-78 25%    
  Jan 15, 2022 271   Cal St. Northridge W 73-71 56%    
  Jan 20, 2022 193   @ UC San Diego L 72-81 20%    
  Jan 22, 2022 74   UC Irvine L 65-76 16%    
  Jan 27, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside L 65-77 14%    
  Jan 29, 2022 212   @ UC Davis L 75-83 23%    
  Feb 03, 2022 206   Cal St. Bakersfield L 70-72 41%    
  Feb 05, 2022 316   Cal Poly W 74-69 66%    
  Feb 08, 2022 208   Cal St. Fullerton L 75-77 42%    
  Feb 11, 2022 188   @ Hawaii L 72-81 21%    
  Feb 17, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge L 70-74 36%    
  Feb 19, 2022 118   @ UC Santa Barbara L 68-81 12%    
  Feb 24, 2022 193   UC San Diego L 75-78 40%    
  Feb 26, 2022 74   @ UC Irvine L 62-79 7%    
  Mar 03, 2022 212   UC Davis L 78-80 44%    
  Mar 05, 2022 139   UC Riverside L 68-74 28%    
Projected Record 9 - 21 6 - 14




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 1st
2nd 0.2 0.3 0.3 0.2 0.0 1.0 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.2 0.0 2.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.5 1.3 0.8 0.2 2.8 4th
5th 0.0 0.7 1.9 1.4 0.2 0.0 4.3 5th
6th 0.1 1.3 2.8 1.7 0.4 6.3 6th
7th 0.2 1.7 4.3 2.8 0.4 0.0 9.4 7th
8th 0.0 0.4 2.5 5.9 3.8 1.1 0.0 13.7 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 1.2 3.9 6.7 4.3 0.9 0.1 17.4 9th
10th 0.0 0.7 2.4 6.7 7.3 4.4 0.8 0.1 22.5 10th
11th 0.7 2.2 4.8 6.1 4.0 2.1 0.5 0.1 20.5 11th
Total 0.7 2.3 5.5 8.7 12.0 13.7 14.2 13.0 10.4 7.5 4.6 3.5 2.0 1.1 0.6 0.2 0.1 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2 100.0% 0.0    0.0
17-3
16-4 64.7% 0.0    0.0
15-5 13.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0
14-6 18.9% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.0%
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 0.2% 0.2 0.1 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2 0.0% 0.0
17-3
16-4 0.1% 0.1
15-5 0.2% 18.8% 18.8% 15.0 0.0 0.2
14-6 0.6% 0.4% 0.4% 15.0 0.0 0.6
13-7 1.1% 9.9% 9.9% 15.4 0.0 0.1 0.0 1.0
12-8 2.0% 3.2% 3.2% 15.3 0.0 0.0 0.0 1.9
11-9 3.5% 3.3% 3.3% 15.8 0.0 0.1 3.4
10-10 4.6% 3.3% 3.3% 15.9 0.0 0.1 4.4
9-11 7.5% 0.9% 0.9% 16.0 0.1 7.4
8-12 10.4% 1.2% 1.2% 16.0 0.1 10.3
7-13 13.0% 0.5% 0.5% 16.0 0.1 12.9
6-14 14.2% 0.1% 0.1% 16.0 0.0 14.2
5-15 13.7% 13.7
4-16 12.0% 12.0
3-17 8.7% 8.7
2-18 5.5% 5.5
1-19 2.3% 2.3
0-20 0.7% 0.7
Total 100% 0.8% 0.8% 0.0% 15.7 0.0 0.2 0.6 99.2 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Lose Out 0.6%