UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2022-23 - 2023-24
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Overall
Predictive Rating+4.6#101
Expected Predictive Rating+7.4#74
Pace64.7#277
Improvement+0.9#80

Offense
Total Offense+1.1#140
First Shot+1.7#114
After Offensive Rebound-0.6#224
Layup/Dunks+4.5#36
2 Pt Jumpshots+2.7#45
3 Pt Jumpshots-5.3#337
Freethrows-0.2#190
Improvement+0.7#74

Defense
Total Defense+3.4#81
First Shot+0.5#162
After Offensive Rebounds+3.0#5
Layups/Dunks-1.2#234
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.7#262
3 Pt Jumpshots+1.4#125
Freethrows+1.1#101
Improvement+0.2#147
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 28.9% 29.3% 24.2%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.3% 0.4% 0.0%
Average Seed 12.7 12.7 13.0
.500 or above 100.0% 100.0% 100.0%
.500 or above in Conference 100.0% 100.0% 99.9%
Conference Champion 65.9% 67.7% 44.8%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.2% 0.2% 0.0%
First Round28.8% 29.2% 24.2%
Second Round5.0% 5.1% 3.5%
Sweet Sixteen1.2% 1.2% 0.7%
Elite Eight0.2% 0.2% 0.1%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.1%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Cal Poly (Home) - 92.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 00 - 0
Quad 22 - 12 - 1
Quad 38 - 310 - 4
Quad 412 - 223 - 6


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 11, 2022 169   Fresno St. W 61-54 67%     1 - 0 +7.0 -1.6 +9.4
  Nov 18, 2022 293   @ Northern Arizona L 54-63 80%     1 - 1 -13.3 -20.6 +7.0
  Nov 21, 2022 342   Hampton W 79-66 95%     2 - 1 -1.5 -0.7 -0.5
  Nov 23, 2022 291   North Alabama W 89-71 90%     3 - 1 +8.4 +11.0 -2.2
  Nov 29, 2022 126   @ Duquesne L 61-72 48%     3 - 2 -5.9 -5.2 -1.8
  Dec 03, 2022 208   Pacific W 82-71 81%     4 - 2 +6.5 +8.2 -1.3
  Dec 10, 2022 190   @ Pepperdine W 67-64 OT 61%     5 - 2 +4.6 -12.4 +16.7
  Dec 17, 2022 247   @ Portland St. W 85-73 73%     6 - 2 +10.3 +4.5 +4.9
  Dec 21, 2022 179   Appalachian St. W 61-50 68%     7 - 2 +10.7 -4.1 +15.8
  Dec 29, 2022 154   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 66-58 55%     8 - 2 1 - 0 +11.3 +4.8 +7.5
  Dec 31, 2022 262   UC San Diego W 82-61 88%     9 - 2 2 - 0 +12.9 +13.3 +1.6
  Jan 07, 2023 298   @ Cal Poly W 62-57 81%     10 - 2 3 - 0 +0.2 -3.7 +4.5
  Jan 11, 2023 308   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 60-48 82%     11 - 2 4 - 0 +6.7 -0.4 +9.6
  Jan 14, 2023 158   UC Riverside L 64-65 75%     11 - 3 4 - 1 -3.3 -6.6 +3.2
  Jan 16, 2023 100   @ UC Irvine W 73-65 39%     12 - 3 5 - 1 +15.3 +8.2 +7.5
  Jan 19, 2023 328   Cal St. Northridge W 72-52 93%     13 - 3 6 - 1 +7.8 +7.6 +3.7
  Jan 21, 2023 308   Cal St. Bakersfield W 76-58 92%     14 - 3 7 - 1 +7.2 +7.1 +1.7
  Jan 26, 2023 134   @ Hawaii W 65-64 50%     15 - 3 8 - 1 +5.6 +3.0 +2.6
  Feb 02, 2023 298   Cal Poly W 69-54 92%    
  Feb 04, 2023 328   @ Cal St. Northridge W 69-58 85%    
  Feb 09, 2023 165   @ Long Beach St. W 74-72 55%    
  Feb 11, 2023 174   UC Davis W 74-67 77%    
  Feb 15, 2023 100   UC Irvine W 70-67 61%    
  Feb 18, 2023 158   @ UC Riverside W 67-66 55%    
  Feb 20, 2023 154   Cal St. Fullerton W 67-60 74%    
  Feb 23, 2023 165   Long Beach St. W 76-69 76%    
  Feb 25, 2023 262   @ UC San Diego W 69-62 74%    
  Mar 02, 2023 174   @ UC Davis W 71-69 56%    
  Mar 04, 2023 134   Hawaii W 65-60 70%    
Projected Record 23 - 6 16 - 4





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 1.7 10.0 20.0 19.9 11.2 3.0 65.9 1st
2nd 0.0 0.9 7.1 9.1 3.6 0.4 21.0 2nd
3rd 0.2 2.9 3.8 0.7 0.0 7.7 3rd
4th 0.0 0.9 2.0 0.3 0.0 3.3 4th
5th 0.0 0.2 0.9 0.2 1.4 5th
6th 0.0 0.3 0.3 0.0 0.6 6th
7th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 7th
8th 8th
9th 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.6 2.4 6.1 12.9 19.8 23.6 20.3 11.2 3.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1 100.0% 3.0    3.0
18-2 100.0% 11.2    11.1 0.1
17-3 98.3% 19.9    17.5 2.4 0.0
16-4 84.8% 20.0    13.1 6.5 0.4
15-5 50.7% 10.0    3.3 5.0 1.6 0.1
14-6 12.9% 1.7    0.1 0.5 0.7 0.3 0.0
13-7 0.4% 0.0    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 65.9% 65.9 48.2 14.5 2.8 0.4 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1 3.0% 50.3% 43.3% 7.0% 11.2 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.9 0.4 0.0 1.5 12.4%
18-2 11.2% 39.5% 39.4% 0.1% 12.0 0.0 0.9 2.5 1.0 0.1 6.8 0.2%
17-3 20.3% 34.8% 34.7% 0.0% 12.5 0.0 0.4 3.1 3.1 0.4 13.2 0.1%
16-4 23.6% 29.4% 29.4% 12.8 0.2 2.0 3.9 0.9 0.0 16.7
15-5 19.8% 24.9% 24.9% 13.1 0.0 0.8 2.8 1.3 0.0 14.9
14-6 12.9% 20.3% 20.3% 13.4 0.0 0.2 1.3 1.1 0.1 0.0 10.3
13-7 6.1% 17.2% 17.2% 13.7 0.0 0.4 0.6 0.1 5.0
12-8 2.4% 13.6% 13.6% 13.9 0.1 0.2 0.1 2.1
11-9 0.6% 10.7% 10.7% 14.4 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.6
10-10 0.1% 8.3% 8.3% 14.6 0.0 0.0 0.1
9-11 0.0% 0.0 0.0
8-12
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 28.9% 28.7% 0.2% 12.7 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 2.4 9.0 12.6 4.6 0.3 0.0 71.1 0.3%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 3.0% 50.3% 11.2 0.1 0.1 0.7 4.2 29.6 14.1 1.5