UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Overall
Predictive Rating+0.2#158
Expected Predictive Rating+0.5#158
Pace64.3#312
Improvement-1.2#260

Offense
Total Offense+3.0#102
First Shot+3.0#86
After Offensive Rebound-0.1#183
Layup/Dunks-1.0#223
2 Pt Jumpshots-0.3#195
3 Pt Jumpshots+2.0#118
Freethrows+2.4#52
Improvement-3.1#356

Defense
Total Defense-2.8#270
First Shot-3.9#311
After Offensive Rebounds+1.1#97
Layups/Dunks+2.2#96
2 Pt Jumpshots+0.3#182
3 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#320
Freethrows-2.3#320
Improvement+2.0#54
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 8.9% 9.6% 6.6%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.5 13.5 14.0
.500 or above 81.4% 85.7% 66.6%
.500 or above in Conference 82.2% 84.0% 75.7%
Conference Champion 8.4% 9.2% 5.7%
Last Place in Conference 0.6% 0.4% 1.1%
First Four0.1% 0.0% 0.1%
First Round8.9% 9.6% 6.5%
Second Round0.5% 0.6% 0.2%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Portland (Home) - 77.5% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 4
Quad 34 - 55 - 10
Quad 412 - 318 - 13


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Sat, Nov 8 196 San Jose St. W 85-74 70%     1 - 0 +5.7 +18.3 -11.3
  Tue, Nov 11 272 @Sacramento St. W 92-87 61%     2 - 0 +2.2 +14.8 -12.9
  Mon, Nov 17 127 Loyola Marymount L 74-78 OT 54%     2 - 1 -4.9 +0.3 -5.0
  Sat, Nov 22 91 @Nevada L 64-77 20%     2 - 2 -3.9 -3.8 -0.5
  Fri, Nov 28 317 Lehigh W 72-70 81%     3 - 2 -7.0 +2.1 -8.9
  Sat, Nov 29 111 Seattle W 74-71 37%     4 - 2 +6.7 +13.9 -6.9
  Thu, Dec 4 276 Long Beach St. W 84-77 OT 81%     5 - 2 1 - 0 -2.1 +1.0 -3.5
  Sat, Dec 6 311 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109-84 87%     6 - 2 2 - 0 +13.3 +26.7 -14.4
  Sat, Dec 13 88 Utah Valley L 53-68 27%     6 - 3 -8.5 -12.9 +3.9
  Wed, Dec 17 265 @Green Bay L 64-67 61%     6 - 4 -5.6 +3.7 -10.0
  Mon, Dec 22 244 Portland W 79-71 78%    
  Thu, Jan 1 243 @Cal St. Fullerton W 81-79 57%    
  Sat, Jan 3 219 @Cal St. Northridge W 79-78 53%    
  Thu, Jan 8 175 UC Davis W 76-72 66%    
  Thu, Jan 15 311 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 78-72 71%    
  Sat, Jan 17 109 Hawaii L 70-71 47%    
  Thu, Jan 22 259 Cal Poly W 86-77 78%    
  Sat, Jan 24 276 @Long Beach St. W 76-73 62%    
  Thu, Jan 29 84 @UC San Diego L 70-80 19%    
  Sat, Jan 31 243 Cal St. Fullerton W 84-76 76%    
  Thu, Feb 5 175 @UC Davis L 73-75 44%    
  Sat, Feb 7 143 UC Irvine W 71-69 57%    
  Thu, Feb 12 271 @UC Riverside W 75-72 61%    
  Sat, Feb 14 259 @Cal Poly W 83-80 59%    
  Thu, Feb 19 219 Cal St. Northridge W 82-75 73%    
  Sun, Feb 22 109 @Hawaii L 67-74 27%    
  Thu, Feb 26 271 UC Riverside W 78-69 79%    
  Sat, Feb 28 143 @UC Irvine L 68-72 36%    
  Sat, Mar 7 84 UC San Diego L 73-77 37%    
Projected Record 17 - 12 12 - 8




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.7 2.6 2.2 0.9 0.3 0.0 8.4 1st
2nd 0.0 0.5 2.4 5.0 5.4 2.4 0.6 0.1 16.5 2nd
3rd 0.0 0.1 1.1 4.4 7.4 5.3 1.8 0.2 0.0 20.3 3rd
4th 0.0 0.1 1.8 5.6 7.2 4.0 0.8 0.1 19.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.6 5.0 5.1 2.0 0.3 0.0 14.2 5th
6th 0.0 1.0 3.4 3.3 1.0 0.1 8.7 6th
7th 0.0 0.6 2.2 2.3 0.6 0.0 5.7 7th
8th 0.0 0.0 0.3 1.4 1.5 0.4 0.0 3.6 8th
9th 0.0 0.2 0.6 0.8 0.3 0.0 1.8 9th
10th 0.1 0.3 0.4 0.2 0.0 0.9 10th
11th 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.2 11th
Total 0.0 0.1 0.5 1.3 2.9 5.1 7.8 10.8 12.9 14.2 14.3 11.7 9.0 5.2 2.8 1.0 0.3 0.0 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.0    0.0
19-1 100.0% 0.3    0.3 0.0
18-2 94.6% 0.9    0.8 0.1
17-3 77.4% 2.2    1.5 0.6 0.0
16-4 50.1% 2.6    1.3 1.1 0.2 0.0
15-5 19.0% 1.7    0.5 0.8 0.3 0.0
14-6 4.8% 0.6    0.1 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.0
13-7 0.7% 0.1    0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0 0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 8.4% 8.4 4.6 2.9 0.8 0.1 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.0% 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.0
19-1 0.3% 42.0% 42.0% 11.8 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.2
18-2 1.0% 36.8% 36.8% 12.5 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 0.6
17-3 2.8% 28.6% 28.6% 12.7 0.0 0.3 0.4 0.1 0.0 2.0
16-4 5.2% 23.6% 23.6% 13.1 0.0 0.2 0.7 0.3 0.0 4.0
15-5 9.0% 19.0% 19.0% 13.3 0.1 0.9 0.6 0.1 7.3
14-6 11.7% 14.3% 14.3% 13.6 0.1 0.6 0.8 0.2 10.0
13-7 14.3% 9.7% 9.7% 13.9 0.0 0.4 0.7 0.3 0.0 12.9
12-8 14.2% 5.6% 5.6% 14.2 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.2 0.0 13.4
11-9 12.9% 3.4% 3.4% 14.4 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.0 12.4
10-10 10.8% 2.2% 2.2% 14.8 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.0 10.6
9-11 7.8% 1.4% 1.4% 15.3 0.1 0.0 7.7
8-12 5.1% 0.8% 0.8% 15.9 0.0 0.0 5.1
7-13 2.9% 0.2% 0.2% 16.0 0.0 2.9
6-14 1.3% 1.3
5-15 0.5% 0.5
4-16 0.1% 0.1
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 8.9% 8.9% 0.0% 13.5 0.0 0.0 0.1 1.0 3.4 3.1 1.2 0.2 91.1 0.0%