UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2021-22 - 2022-23
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Overall
Predictive Rating+3.1#118
Expected Predictive Rating-12.2#322
Pace64.2#303
Improvement-1.8#308

Offense
Total Offense+2.2#111
First Shot+2.0#125
After Offensive Rebound+0.2#164
Layup/Dunks+11.6#3
2 Pt Jumpshots-4.1#346
3 Pt Jumpshots-6.0#338
Freethrows+0.4#150
Improvement-0.9#276

Defense
Total Defense+0.9#143
First Shot-0.4#182
After Offensive Rebounds+1.2#102
Layups/Dunks-9.0#355
2 Pt Jumpshots+3.6#15
3 Pt Jumpshots+5.7#22
Freethrows-0.7#233
Improvement-0.8#257
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 19.3% 20.5% 13.0%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 14.3 14.2 14.8
.500 or above 89.0% 91.6% 76.2%
.500 or above in Conference 88.9% 90.2% 82.3%
Conference Champion 21.8% 23.2% 14.6%
Last Place in Conference 0.5% 0.5% 0.8%
First Four0.9% 0.9% 1.2%
First Round18.9% 20.2% 12.2%
Second Round2.2% 2.5% 1.0%
Sweet Sixteen0.5% 0.6% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.1% 0.1% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: Pepperdine (Home) - 83.0% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 10 - 1
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 2
Quad 21 - 21 - 4
Quad 35 - 46 - 8
Quad 414 - 320 - 11


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Record Conf Rating Offense Defense
  Nov 15, 2021 60   @ Washington St. L 65-73 23%     0 - 1 +2.7 -0.7 +3.0
  Nov 20, 2021 355   Chicago St. W 81-50 98%     1 - 1 +9.9 +0.5 +10.0
  Nov 24, 2021 357   Arkansas Pine Bluff W 86-58 98%     2 - 1 +5.3 +4.0 +1.5
  Nov 29, 2021 234   Texas Arlington L 62-70 82%     2 - 2 -14.6 -12.5 -2.1
  Dec 03, 2021 235   Pepperdine W 74-64 83%    
  Dec 11, 2021 41   @ St. Mary's L 57-67 16%    
  Dec 14, 2021 187   @ Pacific W 66-65 56%    
  Dec 19, 2021 305   Florida A&M W 73-59 90%    
  Dec 22, 2021 311   Idaho St. W 71-57 91%    
  Dec 30, 2021 193   @ UC San Diego W 69-68 55%    
  Jan 01, 2022 74   @ UC Irvine L 60-67 26%    
  Jan 06, 2022 316   Cal Poly W 72-57 91%    
  Jan 08, 2022 206   Cal St. Bakersfield W 68-60 76%    
  Jan 13, 2022 297   @ Long Beach St. W 78-71 75%    
  Jan 15, 2022 208   @ Cal St. Fullerton W 69-67 57%    
  Jan 20, 2022 139   UC Riverside W 66-62 64%    
  Jan 22, 2022 212   UC Davis W 75-67 76%    
  Jan 25, 2022 271   @ Cal St. Northridge W 68-62 69%    
  Jan 30, 2022 188   @ Hawaii W 69-68 54%    
  Feb 03, 2022 74   UC Irvine L 63-64 47%    
  Feb 05, 2022 193   UC San Diego W 72-65 74%    
  Feb 10, 2022 206   @ Cal St. Bakersfield W 65-63 57%    
  Feb 12, 2022 316   @ Cal Poly W 69-60 78%    
  Feb 17, 2022 208   Cal St. Fullerton W 72-64 76%    
  Feb 19, 2022 297   Long Beach St. W 81-68 88%    
  Feb 24, 2022 212   @ UC Davis W 72-70 58%    
  Feb 26, 2022 139   @ UC Riverside L 63-65 43%    
  Mar 01, 2022 271   Cal St. Northridge W 71-59 85%    
  Mar 04, 2022 188   Hawaii W 72-65 74%    
Projected Record 19 - 10 13 - 7





Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.




Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.2 1.3 3.1 5.3 5.4 4.1 1.9 0.5 21.8 1st
2nd 0.6 3.2 7.1 7.3 4.3 1.7 0.3 24.4 2nd
3rd 0.1 0.7 3.9 6.6 4.7 1.7 0.3 18.0 3rd
4th 0.0 0.7 3.4 4.5 2.5 0.6 0.1 11.7 4th
5th 0.1 0.6 3.0 3.4 1.7 0.1 8.9 5th
6th 0.0 0.4 2.0 2.8 1.0 0.0 6.2 6th
7th 0.0 0.3 1.1 1.6 0.8 0.1 3.9 7th
8th 0.2 1.0 1.1 0.5 0.0 0.0 2.8 8th
9th 0.0 0.1 0.4 0.5 0.2 0.1 1.4 9th
10th 0.1 0.2 0.2 0.1 0.0 0.6 10th
11th 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.3 11th
Total 0.0 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.4 0.9 1.9 2.9 4.7 7.3 8.6 10.7 12.7 13.7 12.2 9.9 7.1 4.4 1.9 0.5 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0 100.0% 0.5    0.5
19-1 100.0% 1.9    1.8 0.0
18-2 93.6% 4.1    3.6 0.5
17-3 75.5% 5.4    3.8 1.5 0.0
16-4 53.4% 5.3    3.0 2.0 0.3
15-5 25.3% 3.1    1.2 1.4 0.4 0.0
14-6 9.7% 1.3    0.3 0.5 0.4 0.1 0.0
13-7 1.7% 0.2    0.0 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0
12-8 0.0%
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 21.8% 21.8 14.3 6.0 1.2 0.2 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid
AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0 0.5% 70.0% 70.0% 8.7 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.1
19-1 1.9% 43.5% 43.5% 12.3 0.0 0.0 0.2 0.2 0.3 0.1 0.0 1.1
18-2 4.4% 37.2% 37.2% 13.1 0.0 0.3 0.8 0.5 0.0 2.8
17-3 7.1% 38.4% 38.4% 13.5 0.0 0.2 1.0 1.2 0.2 0.0 4.4
16-4 9.9% 29.8% 29.8% 14.0 0.1 0.7 1.4 0.8 0.1 7.0
15-5 12.2% 23.4% 23.4% 14.5 0.0 0.2 1.1 1.3 0.2 9.3
14-6 13.7% 20.8% 20.8% 14.9 0.0 0.1 0.6 1.6 0.5 10.8
13-7 12.7% 15.5% 15.5% 15.0 0.1 0.3 1.2 0.4 10.7
12-8 10.7% 13.9% 13.9% 15.5 0.1 0.6 0.8 9.2
11-9 8.6% 9.6% 9.6% 15.6 0.0 0.3 0.5 7.8
10-10 7.3% 6.0% 6.0% 15.8 0.1 0.4 6.9
9-11 4.7% 5.7% 5.7% 15.9 0.0 0.3 4.5
8-12 2.9% 1.7% 1.7% 16.0 0.0 2.9
7-13 1.9% 3.3% 3.3% 16.0 0.1 1.9
6-14 0.9% 0.9
5-15 0.4% 0.4
4-16 0.2% 0.2
3-17 0.0% 0.0
2-18 0.0% 0.0
1-19
0-20 0.0% 0.0
Total 100% 19.3% 19.3% 0.0% 14.3 0.0 0.0 0.1 0.1 0.0 0.0 0.3 0.9 3.2 5.2 6.2 3.2 80.7 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid
Avg
Seed
1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.2% 100.0% 6.2 11.9 3.6 35.7 47.6 1.2