UC Santa Barbara
Big West
2019-20 - 2025-26 - 2026-27
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Predictive Rating +1.5 #135
Expected Predictive Rating +0.5 #153
Pace 63.1 #325
Improvement +2.7 #69

Overall 1st FGA Second Chance TOs Free
throws		 Shot Selection
Offense #91 B C C- C+ C+
Defense #240 D+ C+ C D C-

Offense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #181 1.23 #94 +1.4 #125
2 Pt. Jumpers 18% #217 0.76 #173 -0.9 #231
Three Pointers 43% #143 1.18 #17 +4.7 #40
1st FG Attempt 1.12 #49 +5.2 #50
Freethrows 0.30 #196 77% #30 0.23 #133
Second Chance 32.3% #128 0.97 #264 0.31 #168
Turnovers 18.1% #257
Total Offense +3.4 #91

Defense Breakdown
Attempts Conversion Rate Total Effect
Close Shots 39% #162 1.22 #266 -1.7 #235
2 Pt. Jumpers 19% #212 0.86 #327 -0.5 #230
Three Pointers 41% #178 1.06 #237 -0.9 #222
1st FG Attempt 1.08 #279 -3.1 #280
Freethrows 0.36 #315 72% #204 0.26 #315
Second Chance 27.5% #71 1.05 #225 0.29 #116
Turnovers 17.4% #152
Total Defense -1.9 #240

Miscellaneous
Offense Defense
Shot Type Mix Effect 0.6% #154 0.4% #206
Shot Type Accuracy Effect 9.5% #44 5.6% #288
Possession Length 18.6 #313 17.9 #283
Fast Break Points Per Possession 0.14 #262 0.17 #171
Improvement -0.5 #210 +3.2 #32

See methodology page for descriptions of rating types.
NowWin NextLose Next
#1 Overall Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
#1 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 2 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 4 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Top 6 Seed 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
NCAA Tourney Bid 14.0% 16.8% 10.4%
At-Large Bid if not Auto Qualifier 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Average Seed 13.3 13.2 13.5
.500 or above 99.1% 99.9% 98.2%
.500 or above in Conference 98.9% 99.8% 97.7%
Conference Champion 9.4% 15.3% 2.1%
Last Place in Conference 0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
First Round14.0% 16.8% 10.4%
Second Round0.6% 0.9% 0.3%
Sweet Sixteen0.1% 0.1% 0.1%
Elite Eight0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Final Four0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
Championship Game0.0% 0.0% 0.0%
National Champion0.0% 0.0% 0.0%

Next Game: UC Irvine (Home) - 55.2% chance of victory

Projected Seeding Not in Tournament  

Projected Record by Quad
QuadProjectedProjected Cumulative
Quad 1a0 - 00 - 0
Quad 1b0 - 10 - 1
Quad 21 - 31 - 3
Quad 35 - 67 - 9
Quad 412 - 319 - 12


Date Opponent Result/Prediction Avg Lead Record Total Rating Offense Defense
Overall Conf Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs Total First
FGA		 2nd Chance TOs
 Sat, Nov 8 238 San Jose St. W 85 - 74 80% +9  1 - 0 +3 +17 A+ B- C+ -12 D+ F A+
 Tue, Nov 11 258 @Sacramento St. W 92 - 87 66% +6  2 - 0 +2 +12 B C- A+ -10 F C C
 Mon, Nov 17 154 Loyola Marymount L 74 - 78 OT 67% +3  2 - 1 -7 -2 D+ C A+ -5 C- B+ C
 Sat, Nov 22 70 @Nevada L 64 - 77 18% -8  2 - 2 -2 -3 D B F +1 D+ A+ A+
 Fri, Nov 28 304 Lehigh W 72 - 70 82% -1  3 - 2 -6 +3 F C- B+ -9 C- D- C
 Sat, Nov 29 131 Seattle W 74 - 71 49% +1  4 - 2 +5 +17 A+ A+ F -11 F+ D+ D-
 Thu, Dec 4 251 Long Beach St. W 84 - 77 OT 81% +1  5 - 2 1 - 0 -1 +3 C+ F C- -4 A+ F C
 Sat, Dec 6 320 Cal St. Bakersfield W 109 - 84 90% +14  6 - 2 2 - 0 +12 +26 A+ A+ B -15 F A+ D
 Sat, Dec 13 101 Utah Valley L 53 - 68 37% -12  6 - 3 -10 -14 F C F +3 B+ A C+
 Wed, Dec 17 250 @Green Bay L 64 - 67 63% -8  6 - 4 -5 +1 A- C F -7 F A+ D-
 Mon, Dec 22 205 Portland W 79 - 61 75% +11  7 - 4 +12 +12 A+ C+ D- +3 A+ F B-
 Thu, Jan 1 217 @Cal St. Fullerton L 84 - 95 57% -13  7 - 5 2 - 1 -11 +6 A+ C- F -16 F D D
 Sat, Jan 3 191 @Cal St. Northridge L 65 - 74 51% -6  7 - 6 2 - 2 -8 -10 F F+ D- +2 C+ D+ B+
 Thu, Jan 8 184 UC Davis L 86 - 93 72% +3  7 - 7 2 - 3 -11 +9 A+ F A+ -20 F D- D-
 Thu, Jan 15 320 @Cal St. Bakersfield W 75 - 69 78% +9  8 - 7 3 - 3 -1 +9 B F+ C+ -9 C F F
 Sat, Jan 17 99 Hawaii W 77 - 62 48% +12  9 - 7 4 - 3 +17 +18 A+ B+ D +1 B- B- B-
 Thu, Jan 22 264 Cal Poly W 107 - 67 83% +24  10 - 7 5 - 3 +31 +33 A+ A B -0 C- B+ D+
 Sat, Jan 24 251 @Long Beach St. W 74 - 71 63% +8  11 - 7 6 - 3 +1 +9 C+ C+ A- -8 F+ A+ F+
 Thu, Jan 29 142 @UC San Diego W 62 - 48 40% +9  12 - 7 7 - 3 +18 -3 C- D D+ +22 B A+ A+
 Sat, Jan 31 217 Cal St. Fullerton W 83 - 69 77% +13  13 - 7 8 - 3 +8 +5 B+ D D +2 C+ C A-
 Thu, Feb 5 184 @UC Davis L 75 - 85 50% -5  13 - 8 8 - 4 -8 +9 C+ C+ C- -18 F A+ D-
 Sat, Feb 7 115 UC Irvine W 70 - 69 55%
 Thu, Feb 12 291 @UC Riverside W 75 - 69 70%
 Sat, Feb 14 264 @Cal Poly W 84 - 80 66%
 Thu, Feb 19 191 Cal St. Northridge W 82 - 76 73%
 Sun, Feb 22 99 @Hawaii L 69 - 75 27%
 Thu, Feb 26 291 UC Riverside W 78 - 66 86%
 Sat, Feb 28 115 @UC Irvine L 67 - 72 33%
 Sat, Mar 7 142 UC San Diego W 73 - 70 62%
Totals 18 - 11 13 - 7 +1 +3 B C C- -2 D+ C+ C




Numbers in tables represent percent chance of outcome occurring.



Projected Big West Finish

0-20 1-19 2-18 3-17 4-16 5-15 6-14 7-13 8-12 9-11 10-10 11-9 12-8 13-7 14-6 15-5 16-4 17-3 18-2 19-1 20-0 Total
1st 0.0 0.3 2.9 4.9 1.3 9.4 1st
2nd 0.5 5.4 10.3 3.3 19.4 2nd
3rd 0.0 2.0 13.7 19.9 7.2 0.4 43.3 3rd
4th 0.5 5.8 7.7 1.6 0.0 15.7 4th
5th 0.1 1.8 4.8 1.3 0.1 8.0 5th
6th 0.4 1.8 1.0 0.1 3.3 6th
7th 0.0 0.5 0.3 0.0 0.8 7th
8th 0.1 0.1 0.1 8th
9th 0.0 0.0 9th
10th 10th
11th 11th
Total 0.1 1.0 4.4 13.6 23.4 27.2 20.4 8.6 1.3 Total



Big West Regular Season Championship

Record Champion Total Outright 2-Way 3-Way 4-Way 5-Way 6-Way 7-Way 8-Way
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 100.0% 1.3    1.0 0.3 0.0
15-5 57.5% 4.9    1.9 2.4 0.7
14-6 14.3% 2.9    0.5 1.4 0.9 0.2
13-7 0.9% 0.3    0.0 0.1 0.1 0.1
12-8 0.0% 0.0    0.0
11-9 0.0%
10-10 0.0%
Total 9.4% 9.4 3.4 4.1 1.7 0.3 0.0



NCAA Tournament Selection

Conf RecordRecord ChanceTourney
Bid		AutoAt-LargeAvg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16 No Bid At-Large if not Auto
20-0
19-1
18-2
17-3
16-4 1.3% 38.0% 38.0% 12.3 0.0 0.3 0.2 0.8
15-5 8.6% 26.9% 26.9% 12.8 0.6 1.4 0.3 6.3
14-6 20.4% 21.0% 21.0% 13.2 0.5 2.6 1.1 0.0 16.1
13-7 27.2% 14.0% 14.0% 13.5 0.2 1.7 1.7 0.2 23.4
12-8 23.4% 9.3% 9.3% 13.7 0.1 0.7 1.2 0.3 21.2
11-9 13.6% 5.1% 5.1% 14.0 0.2 0.4 0.2 12.9
10-10 4.4% 3.2% 3.2% 14.4 0.1 0.1 4.2
9-11 1.0% 3.8% 3.8% 14.8 0.0 0.0 1.0
8-12 0.1% 0.1
7-13
6-14
5-15
4-16
3-17
2-18
1-19
0-20
Total 100% 14.0% 14.0% 0.0% 13.3 86.1 0.0%


Optimistic / Pessimistic Scenarios

ChanceTourney
Bid		Avg
Seed		 1 2 3 4 5 6 7 8 9 10 11 12 13 14 15 16
Win Out 0.5% 100.0% 12.3 2.0 65.3 32.7
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Championship 0.4%
Win Out, Lose in Conf. Tourney Semi-Final 0.4%